We continue our preview of the NCAA Tournament with the West Region, the one that could very well be the least predictable.
In this region, anything truly can happen and there will be a multitude of upsets. WARNING: You may want to be sitting down for this. Some of what you are about to see will be absolutely stunning. I will freely admit that this is the region I do not have much of a grasp on, but I’ll try my best to predict the games for this group.
So here goes nothing; my preview for the West Region of the NCAA Tournament. As a reminder, these are the first round matchups:
(1) Oregon vs. (16) Holy Cross/Southern (play-in game)
(2) Oklahoma vs. (15) Cal State Bakersfield
(3) Texas A&M vs. (14) Green Bay
(4) Duke vs. (13) UNC-Wilmington
(5) Baylor vs. (12) Yale
(6) Texas vs. (11) Northern Iowa
(7) Oregon State vs. (10) VCU
(8) Saint Joseph’s vs. (9) Cincinnati
Unlike yesterday’s preview, this region’s first round games will be broken up into three categories: no-brainers, problematic picks, and everyone’s favorite, upsets. This region requires absolute decisiveness and confidence in one’s picks, so there are no judgment calls. Here goes.
No-Brainers
(1) Oregon over (16) Holy Cross/Southern
Even though Oregon is the weakest one seed in this year’s tournament, they are still a one seed and benefit from the fact that Holy Cross and Southern are battling in a play-in game. While Oregon is a deeply flawed team for one that is seeded so highly, they’ll obviously get past this game.
Also, Holy Cross was 10-19 in the regular season. Southern was 19-12, but neither team can take down the Ducks here.
(2) Oklahoma Over (15) Cal State Bakersfield
This game actually wouldn’t be a no-brainer if Cal State Bakersfield was better at three-point shooting. However, it’ll be hard for the Roadrunners to pull it out if they continue to shoot around their 34% clip from deep against a Sooner team that’s third in the tournament in shooting from behind the arc.
Other than this, the battle between these two teams is actually kind of even. Both teams’ rebounding and assist numbers are strikingly similar, and the Sooners are actually more prone to turnovers than Cal State Bakersfield. It will still take a miracle, though, for the Roadrunners to get by Oklahoma in this first round matchup. I’ve got the Sooners, and confidently.
Now that that’s over and done with, we’ll get on to the next section….
Problematic Picks
(3) Texas A&M over (14) Green Bay
Texas A&M is one of the best teams in the West Region and the NCAA Tournament as a whole. That being said, their matchup with the Phoenix is an intriguing one.
For one thing, Green Bay plays the fastest pace of any team in the tournament (79.6 possessions per game) while Texas A&M plays one of the slowest (70.5 possessions per game). This game, like the Miami-Buffalo game in the South, is going to be all about the tempo: slow and it goes to the Aggies, fast and it probably goes to the Phoenix.
While I went with Buffalo in that game, I like Texas A&M in this game because of their distribution of the ball and their physicality. Look out for Green Bay in this one, though.
(9) Cincinnati over (8) Saint Joseph’s
The Hawks of Saint Joseph’s provide matchup problems while the Bearcats of Cincinnati provide tenacious defense and all-world toughness. What gives?
This game is as close to a toss-up as it gets. However, my pick is the Bearcats because this is basically an even matchup in all of the areas that matter except for one: defense. Cincinnati’s defense allows the tenth-least points per game of any team in the country, and while they have struggled at times this season, their defense always translates to the tournament. They should get out of this game, but don’t be stunned if the Hawks win this one, either.
And that’s it for problematic picks. Yes, there are four upsets here; the craziness only starts with these four shockers. Here are my upsets for the West Region:
(10) VCU over (7) Oregon State
While this is a minor upset, the Rams are one of the underseeded teams this March. On the other hand, Oregon State is overseeded and likely undeserving of being on the seven line. VCU, after back-to-back overtime losses in the tournament, can knock Oregon State around in the rebounding department; while I may overemphasize this, it is absolutely critical to win the rebound battle come postseason time.
Every other area of this matchup is fairly even, so this game should be fairly close. However, look for the Rams to pull the minor upset here.
(11) Northern iowa over (6) Texas
The Northern Iowa Panthers were not supposed to be here. After an upset over Wichita State, though, the team was one win away from the tournament and tied with Evansville in the final seconds of the Missouri Valley Conference title game when this happened:
Wes Washpun hit the shot at the buzzer to go to the tournament, and the Panthers have since been thought of as one of the more dangerous mid-major teams in the dance. I can’t disagree with this, and even though the Panthers don’t fit the profile of a giant killer, their defense and experience play into their favor against the Longhorns.
This is the NCAA Tournament and Texas is coached by Shaka Smart, but it’s hard not to like Northern Iowa here.
It’s about to get really real, so buckle up….
(12) yale over (5) baylor
Yale is a very solid rebounding team and defensive team as well. While Baylor comes in as one of the more underrated teams in the tournament, this is a difficult matchup for them because of how Yale crashes the offensive glass. The Bulldogs are one of the teams that can counter Baylor’s rebound animal and part-time tight end, Rico Gathers, and assuming Yale can keep him contained, they should win this game.
And, considering how often they’ll be in this post, they had better.
(13) UNC-Wilmington over (4) duke
While Duke’s strength is shooting from behind the arc, UNC-Wilmington’s strength is their three-point defense and their small-ball lineup. While the Seahawks start four guards and one center, this lineup matches up perfectly against a Duke team that only utilizes six players.
This upset only makes sense from the standpoint that Duke may run out of gas because of their lack of depth. If the Blue Devils are fortunate enough to win this game, can they beat Baylor or Yale with only six or seven players? It will be difficult, which is why I like the Seahawks with this pick.
Round of 32
(9) Cincinnati over (1) Oregon
It’s been four years since all four one seeds made the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. If you’re using that logic, then you’re definitely picking Oregon or some other one seed to lose here because you don’t think all four one seeds will make it. I’ll use the logic that I really like this Cincinnati team and their ferocious defense over the Ducks.
(12) Yale over (13) UNC-Wilmington
This is, in part, a pick made by default. However, Yale’s ability to pound the glass and their perpetual advantage in the rebound margin gives them the edge here. I’ll put Yale in the Sweet 16. Can they beat Cincinnati and go all the way to the Elite 8?
(3) Texas A&m over (11) Northern Iowa
I feel good about the Aggies to take down Northern Iowa here. While this has been a magical ride for the Panthers and they will absolutely give Texas A&M a game, I think the physicality and the scoring ability of the Aggies eventually wins out.
(2) Oklahoma over (10) VCU
This one isn’t all that difficult. Oklahoma is one of the best shooting teams in the country, and while VCU is a good defensive squad, they’ll be unable to stay with the Sooners on the other end.
Sweet 16
(12) Yale OVER (9) Cincinnati
Yale has done it! According to me, they’ll be only the second team in NCAA Tournament history (Missouri in 2002) to make the Elite 8. It will be very difficult for this to happen, but the Bulldogs’ small ball and ability to win the rebound battle will make the difference here. I don’t have Yale in the Elite 8 because I think they’re that good; I think they’re good enough to win one game against a great team. The stars aligned, however, and Yale got this far. How much farther can they go?
(3) Texas A&M over (2) Oklahoma
While I love Oklahoma’s shooting ability, I don’t think they can withstand the physicality of Texas A&M. Jump shooting teams, unlike in the NBA, do not tend to fare overly well in March Madness; Oklahoma relies on the jump shot too much for them to beat the Aggies. This will be the best matchup in the entire region, and there are all sorts of intriguing battles within the game.
This is the main question: can the Aggies contain Wooden Award Winner-to-be Buddy Hield enough to make other players like Isaiah Cousins, Ryan Spangler, and others contribute more than they are used to? My gut says yes; the Aggies have the 31st best scoring defense in the country and size at the guard spots in Jalen Jones, Alex Caruso, and Danuel House. This size should, at least in part, slow down the Sooner offense. They won’t be stopped, but the Aggies will contain the high-powered attack enough to win.
Elite 8
(3) Texas A&M over (12) Yale
This is where the Cinderella run finally ends for the Yalies. This clearly weak region will be claimed by Texas A&M as their defense and size win out over the Bulldogs. While it was a great run for Yale, the Aggies will come out of this region and represent it at the Final Four in Houston.
NOTE: post was published before Holy Cross’ defeat of Southern in the First Four.