You may not know this off the top of your head, but take a guess at the five longest active streaks of consecutive appearances in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.
You probably got three teams right away (Duke, Kansas, Michigan State). The fourth, Wisconsin, might have been tougher for you, but you’re not necessarily surprised that the Badgers have made the dance for eighteen years running. But do you want to take a guess at the fifth team?
Maybe you do, maybe you don’t. Either way, I’ll just give it to you: it’s the Bulldogs of Gonzaga.
Yes; Gonzaga has made the tournament in each of the last 18 seasons. They’re going to make it 19 next month, but something feels different about this year’s Zags team.
This year, the Cinderella label does not fit. This year, the Bulldogs are a legitimate national championship contender.
This is arguably the best team coach Mark Few has ever presided over, as the Bulldogs currently sit at 27-0. Their success has catapulted them to national exposure and the #1 spot in the Associated Press poll for three weeks running. In the past, Gonzaga has been characterized as the little engine that could, the David to college basketball’s Goliath, etc. These characterizations are not true this year.
This season, the Bulldogs boast one of the deepest, most talented teams in the country. Washington transfer Nigel Williams-Goss has paced the team in points, assists, and rebounds, leading or tying for the team lead in each of these categories. Williams-Goss has had such a successful season that he made the Midseason Wooden Award watch list in January. The Zags have one of the 25 best players in the country, and it appears very clear that Williams-Goss is one of the most talented players to pass through Spokane on this side of Adam Morrison.
Williams-Goss is hardly carrying the load alone, though. A star has emerged in the frontcourt for the Zags, and it comes in the form of a man who looks less like a center and more like a right tackle. Standing at 7’1″ and 300 pounds, it would be easy to mistake Przemek Karnowski for literally anything other than a basketball player. But Karnowski is a basketball player alright, and a very good one at that.
In fact, his progression and improvement from a season ago, as well as the arrival of Williams-Goss, are the two main reasons for Gonzaga’s success this season. Karnowski is making nearly 62% of his shots from the field and has upped his free throw percentage by 15 points from last season. Karnowski plays within his bounds; he cannot shoot threes and is not a great rim protector, either. But he knows what he is: a very skilled center, disguised as a mack truck, who can give many teams fits come time for the NCAA Tournament.
There have been other contributors, as well. For example, 11 players have appeared in at least 20 games for the Zags this season, and 8 of those players average a minimum of 13 minutes per game; these figures underscore the excellent depth that Gonzaga has. Assuming injuries do not factor into the equation, the Bulldogs should have plenty enough depth to compete with the best teams in the land. While bench contributors Killian Tillie and Bryan Alberts are both hampered by hand and ankle injuries, respectively, the Zags should be okay as their conference tournament will end a full nine, or possibly even ten, days before Gonzaga would play their first round NCAA tournament game. The time off will help them heal from injuries.
The last time Gonzaga was this good, the year was 2013. The Zags were a number one seed in the NCAA Tournament but were knocked out by Wichita State in the second round. Many observers concluded that Gonzaga was a team that could never succeed in the tournament and was overrated all season long. However, as CBS’ Gary Parrish notes, that interpretation should really be viewed as fake news:
In the moment, I agree, it seemed like an embarrassing upset. But hindsight paints a different picture because what we now know is that Wichita State was far from just a plucky little Missouri Valley Conference team. What we know now is that Wichita State went on to advance to the Final Four, where the Shockers played the eventual national champion (Louisville) closer than anybody else.
Also: Wichita State had three future NBA players!
It’s true: Wichita State advanced to the Final Four and was tied with the eventual national champions with three minutes to go in a national semifinal. It’s very fair to wonder if the Shockers would have won the national championship had they held on and defeated Louisville. Wichita State was a 9-seed when they defeated Gonzaga, but they turned out to be far better than their initial seeding. So it is very unfair to characterize that defeat as disappointing; if anything, it’s actually impressive that Gonzaga played the Shockers that closely.
Now, the same overrated narratives are popping up again with the Bulldogs. However, if you look at the data, you will see that they are not overrated at all. In fact, the Zags are ranked #1 in both the Ken Pomeroy and the Jeff Sagarin ratings, and the fact that they are ranked first in two different but effective rating systems should show the country that Gonzaga is exactly where it should be as a potential #1 seed and the top team in the country.
Another interesting stat: since the Pomeroy ratings started in 2002, no team has won a national championship without being in the top 25 in defensive efficiency. Gonzaga is ranked third in the nation in this category. They were ranked 30th in this category back in 2013, so their improvement defensively should be a clear sign that they can compete for a national championship. Few’s team also ranks third in the country in offensive efficiency; they can beat you in a number of ways, and their versatility should help them in the postseason.
Quite frankly, Gonzaga shouldn’t need to prove that they are one of the best teams in the nation. After all, they beat Florida and Arizona, two teams that I view as national title contenders, before conference play began. The Zags have taken care of business on their way to a 27-0 record and a top ranking in most major polls. The Zags will be a force to be reckoned with come March, but many still believe they are overrated. These people are in for a rude awakening.
So while the slipper still fits, Gonzaga doesn’t necessarily need to wear it this time around.