Back in early April, when this blog was two days old, I did an MLB preview for this upcoming season. You can read it here, but to save you the time, I picked the Mariners to win the World Series. However, through almost three months of the season, it is looking less and less like the M’s will even reach the playoffs, as they are 34-41 and 8 games back of the first-place Astros. So how did a team with so much talent and promise become one struggling to stay out of the division basement?
Let’s start with star 2B Robinson Cano. In Robby’s first season in the Pacific Northwest, he hit .314 and had a .382 on-base percentage. As a result of the Mariners having little support around him, he was intentionally walked 20 times, the fourth highest mark in baseball. This year, however, has been a far different story.
2015’s version of Robby Cano is hitting .244 with a .281 on-base. And baseball analysts are concerned, according to an ESPN.com story by Jerry Crasnick:
Naturally, when the Yankees visited Seattle this week, the New York writers asked Cano if he regretted leaving the Bronx for the Pacific Northwest through free agency in 2013. Cano insisted he is happy in Seattle, but a lot of baseball people wonder if that’s true. Cano’s $240 million contract runs through 2023, so the Mariners better hope this is just a brief, forgettable blip in an otherwise distinguished career.
One MLB analyst still has faith Cano can get on a roll and hit .300 with lots of doubles, but he wonders if Cano’s power outage isn’t a sign of things to come. “He looks like he might be turning into Jose Vidro,” the analyst said.
Vidro played 12 seasons in the majors, 10 with the Expos/Nationals franchise. In the years of 1999-2004, Vidro averaged 16.5 home runs per season and hit at or near .300 in each of those seasons. However, in the last four years of his career from 2005-2008, Vidro averaged 6.8 home runs per year, and even though his batting average numbers stayed near the same in every year but ’08, he was never the same player.
The Mariners’ prized offseason acquisition was DH slugger Nelson Cruz. He has been excellent, hitting 19 home runs and hitting over .300 in the process. He is not the problem with the lineup. There are many other issues with it, though, that don’t involve Cruz at all.
The team planned on having 2011 rookie sensation Dustin Ackley play left field on a near everyday basis. Let’s just say that hasn’t worked out. Ackley is having what is by far the worst year of his career, hitting .199 and getting on base not even 26% of the time. Ackley was recently put back at his original position (second base) to cover for an injured Cano. An excerpt out of this piece from Fansided site Emerald City Swagger explains Ackley’s trade value:
If the Mariners want to get anything for Ackley, then it’s in their best interest to be able to market him as a second baseman as well as an outfielder. If Cano needs another couple nights off, then maybe that’s all the better. Too bad this team has a million DHs or they could even get Ackley some non-emergency infield reps.
Ackley has recently been deposed from his left field perch because of his struggles at the dish. His defense has been just fine, as he has not made any errors in the outfield this season. Ackley even has a negative WAR this season, which, according to Baseball-Reference, means that he can be replaced. And he has been replaced. Seth Smith, who is hitting better and is about the same caliber of defender as Ackley, has taken over left field recently and done just fine, as he hits .262 when he plays that position.
Mark Trumbo was acquired on June 3 to help the thoroughly struggling offense, but he has not helped the cause, either. In 19 games in Seattle, he has hit .160 with an on-base percentage of .194. He and Cruz occasionally switch between DH and Right Field, depending on who needs a day off from playing defense. The Mariners need Trumbo to start producing, as the rest of the lineup has not done so and probably won’t.
The fact is obvious; the Mariners aren’t scoring. They rank tied for 28th in baseball in runs scored (253) and last in batting average (.232). Short of making more moves to add bats, this probably won’t change. The team recently fired hitting coach Howard Johnson and replaced him with franchise legend Edgar Martinez. However, some covering the team do not think Martinez can turn the offense around. Among them are KPLU in Seattle’s Art Thiel:
“Everybody loves Edgar,” Thiel said. “That’s, really, I guess, all the motivation behind it.
“Edgar Martinez has never been a hitting coach or any kind of coach. So we don’t know whether he can convey the wisdom that he accumulated in a reasonable fashion.
“I am certain that Edgar is going to be respected by guys like Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz and, really, the young guys who all know the legend. But is he effective at communicating?
“So often, superstar players – and I would consider Edgar one of the greatest hitters in baseball history – can’t convey what they know. They understand it so instinctively that sometimes it’s hard to offer that up and get people to respond to it,” Thiel said.
I agree with the logic presented here. Martinez was a great hitter in his time, but can he get the secrets to his success across to his hitters? And how soon can he turn the lineup around, if he can at all?
The Mariners’ starting rotation has not been too much of a problem. It hasn’t been great, either, but it isn’t the issue. Felix Hernandez has ten wins and leads the starting rotation in ERA, at 3.24. James Paxton has been good too, with a 3.70 ERA in just 10 starts. The main issue with the starting rotation has been the absence of Hisashi Iwakuma, who is very possibly the team’s second best pitcher. Iwakuma is close to return, but upon his return, it looks as if Seattle will have to send down one of their promising young pitchers in Roenis Elias or Mike Montgomery.
In the end, the Mariners still have a chance to win the division. This is what the AL West standings looked like on this date last year, June 28th, 2014:
- Oakland Athletics 50-30
- Los Angeles Angels 45-34
- Seattle Mariners 43-38
- Texas Rangers 37-43
- Houston Astros 35-47
And this is what they looked like at the end of the season:
- Los Angeles Angels 98-64
- Oakland Athletics 88-74
- Seattle Mariners 87-75
- Houston Astros 70-92
- Texas Rangers 67-95
Oddly enough, the Mariners were 7.5 games back of first place at this time last year. They are 8 games back now. The point is that there is still time for them to make a run and win the division, especially if the Astros begin to taper off. However, they have issues, ones that may not be able to be fixed this season.
There is a lot wrong with the Seattle Mariners.