Month: August 2015

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The Toronto Blue Jays Turned the AL East on Its Head This Weekend… Or Did They?

 

The Toronto Blue Jays, bonkers trade deadline performance and all, still entered last weekend down 4.5 games to the AL East-leading Yankees.  But they had the chance to change that, with three games in the Bronx starting Friday.  And change that they did.

Friday saw a well-pitched game head into extra innings; starters R.A. Dickey and Nathan Eovaldi allowed one run each over seven and six and a third innings, respectively.  After nine, Yankees manager Joe Girardi turned to rookie reliever Branden Pinder, and Pinder rewarded his manager’s loyalty by promptly serving up a solo jack to Jose Bautista.  Toronto won.  3.5 back.

Saturday marked the second start in the Blue Jays career of David Price, acquired from the Tigers at the trade deadline.  He would be facing Ivan Nova, who had been dealing with arm fatigue in recent weeks.  The game was scoreless, until the sixth inning, that is, when Justin Smoak belted a grand slam to break the tie.

Two more Blue Jay runs would be added over the course of as many innnings, Price would pitch seven shutout innings, and the Blue Jays would win again.  2.5 back.

Sunday presented an opportunity for the Yankees to get some of their lead back, with consistent #2 pitcher Masahiro Tanaka hitting the mound.  The Blue Jays sent Marco Estrada to the hill.  Tanaka was plenty good enough to win, only allowing two runs on home runs to Bautista and Josh Donaldson.  But Estrada was better, going six and a third scoreless innings.  The combination of  LaTroy Hawkins, Aaron Sanchez, and Roberto Osuna would not allow a hit the rest of the way, and the Blue Jays completed the weekend sweep.  1.5 back.

Sunday afternoon’s game also featured this piece of abject stupidity, but whatever:

So the AL East looks drastically different today, the complexion of it flipped upside down.  One would assume.

While the Jays have trailed in the division for the majority of this season, numbers, and particularly win-loss records, can be very misleading.

This season, the team north of the border has had the best run differential in Major League Baseball, at +129.  That figure is even better than the one posted by baseball’s best squad, the St. Louis Cardinals.  The Cards are 71-40.  The Jays are 61-52.  Why?  One-run games.

While their run differential has been outstanding, their record in games decided by one run has been atrocious.  At 12-23, they have the second worst record in the sport in these games.  Something called expected win-loss record says the Blue Jays should have been 69-44, given their run differential.  That record would be second best in baseball, only behind St. Louis.  But their performance in one-run games has left them playing catch-up all year.

So what do we chalk the Blue Jays’ tough losses to this season? Straight, dumb luck.  The New York Times‘ Victor Mather explains:

Fans are often suspicious of such teams, contending that they lack “heart” or “clutchiness.” But records in one-run games are largely a matter of luck. Teams that fare poorly in close games are just as likely to fare well in them in the future. Teams that do well in blowouts are just good teams, period.

(There is a team worse than the Jays in one-run games this year: The Oakland A’s are 13-26. Though Oakland is an afterthought this season at 51-62, it has a respectable plus-35 run differential, better than the Rays, Rangers and Twins, all of whom are around .500.)
In their 11-1 run, the Jays have outscored their foes by 67-32, and their run differential now stands at 597 to 468, or plus 129, dwarfing the next best team in the league, the Astros, who are plus 78. The Yankees, who still lead the Jays by a game and a half, are plus 61.

Though they cannot match the Jays, the Yankees are having a much improved season in run differential. Over the last two seasons opponents outscored the Yankees. In 2014, the Yanks were 84-78 while posting a minus 31. In 2013, they were 85-77 and minus 21.

Manager Joe Girardi got a lot of credit for keeping an apparently underwhelming team in contention. Most notably, he managed the team to a 30-16 record in one-run games in 2013. But no such magic is needed this season; the Yankees have the numbers to back up their record.

For every team like the Jays whose true abilities were hidden by a poor record, there is a team that fashions a fine record despite a mediocre run differential.

This is exactly the point I’m trying to articulate: the Blue Jays’ “resurgence” really isn’t one; all there is to their recent success is their performing to their potential… and the trades they made.

At the time of Troy Tulowitzki’s first game with the team, Toronto was a mediocre 50-51.  They won their next two games, and on July 30, pulled their second blockbuster trade of the week, picking up David Price.  Today, they’re 61-52, and with the offense humming as usual and the rotation bolstered, the Jays are looking very, very dangerous.

And here’s the thing: Tulo hasn’t played that well for Toronto.  The career .298 hitter has batted just .244 for the Jays, albeit in a scarce 53 plate appearances; this shouldn’t be anything to worry about.  However, his addition has helped the other batters in Toronto’s ridiculous batting order, and this is partially the reason why the trade for him has been successful.  And Price, in just two starts, has allowed exactly one earned run and helped a pitching staff in desperate need of support.  He wasn’t a bad acquisition, either.

So what does all of this mean for the Yankees?  Jacob Shafer at Bleacher Report wrote about that yesterday:

Well, now it’s three games, but the point is taken. The Yankees, however, need to regroup in a hurry.

Beginning Tuesday, they embark on a six-game road trip that begins with a three-game series against the Cleveland Indians and concludes with a trio of contests north of the border against these same Blue Jays.

If Toronto sweeps, or even wins, that series, it’s probable we’ll have a new leader in the AL East. And the two clubs will meet for four more in New York beginning Sept. 10.

Any Yankees turnaround will begin with the offense, which ranks second in MLB in runs scored (yes, they trail Toronto).

But the starting rotation, which owns an ERA of 4.31, needs to pick up the slack. To that end, how huge would it have been for New York to grab Price from the Detroit Tigers at the deadline, adding him to its arsenal and keeping the stud southpaw away from Toronto?

So this is the one important question: are the Blue Jays the favorites in the AL East?

At this point in the season, I’d have to say yes.  They have enough pitching now, and when it gets combined with that crazy lineup of theirs, the Toronto Blue Jays may just be the scariest team in the American League.  They could make a deep run in October, and it is just about assured that their 22-year playoff drought is about to end.

But one thing is clear: their emergence shouldn’t be a surprise.

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The Top Five NFL Coaches on the Hot Seat

 

It’s that time of year again!  NFL training camp has fully begun for all 32 NFL teams, the first preseason game kicks off on Sunday night, Hard Knocks starts on Tuesday, and every fantasy football team in America is undefeated.  In other words, all the signs are there to indicate that football season is around the corner.  And what better way to kick off said football season than to talk about coaches who need to be taking looks over their shoulders for their replacement?

My word of warning with this: I am not doing this to celebrate the chance of a coach getting fired.  And I’m not jumping for joy over a coach, or coaches, doing poor jobs.  As Donald Trump said last night, “I would say he’s incompetent, but I don’t want to do that because that’s not nice.”  The Donald aside, let’s get down to business; here are top five coaches on the hot seat this season.

5. Chuck Pagano, Indianapolis Colts

This is probably a surprise for you.  It was for me, too.

To most observers, this would seem like the year for the Colts to put it all together.  They signed Andre Johnson and Frank Gore in free agency.  They bring back the third leading passer in total yards last season and the best young quarterback in football.  And best of all? No more Trent Richardson!  They’re going to win the Super Bowl, right?

Maybe.  But for coach Chuck Pagano, he has no other choice.  And while this is a surprise, ProFootballTalk’s Mike Florio covered it in March:

The problem may be that owner Jim Irsay wants more success before making a fresh commitment to Pagano.  Ditto, possibly, for G.M. Ryan Grigson, who also is entering the final year of his contract, who traded a first-round draft pick for Trent Richardson, and who possibly won’t be getting an extension, either.

Irsay had no qualms about firing Jim Mora after the 2001 season, after a 6-10 season followed a pair of playoff appearances with Peyton Manning.  Perhaps Irsay believes that, unless Grigson and Pagano can get more out of franchise quarterbackAndrew Luck, Irsay will find someone who will.

That’s his right, but it also will be Grigson’s and Pagano’s right to accept employment elsewhere, if they take the Colts to or close to the top of the NFL and attract interest elsewhere.

Unfair?  Very.  Ridiculous?  Even more so.  But it’s just the way the NFL works.  The “What have you done for me lately” industry may be claiming another victim next offseason.

4. Sean Payton, New Orleans Saints

Little-known fact: Drew Brees was tied for the NFL lead in passing yards last season.  Very well-known fact: Drew Brees is 36 years old.

Drew Brees is the quarterback of the New Orleans Saints, who were triumphant in Super Bowl XLIV, after the 2009 season.  The greatest hits of coach Sean Payton’s team since then?  Among others, the Earthquake Run, the Catch III, Bountygate, losing a quite winnable NFC South last season, and, most importantly, no trips to the conference title game since their ’09 title.

And if you don’t think think the pressure is squarely on Sean Payton this season, listen to what he said after last season, per Brent Sobleski of Bleacher Report:

Honestly, and I say this in a very humble way, I hope that none of us feel like the ‘13 season was one where we were ready to have a second Mardi Gras parade. Look, we made the postseason, we had a chance to win the division and we couldn’t finish at the end at Carolina. And we got a playoff win, I recognize that was a big deal. But our aspirations are higher than that.

Payton has set himself up for failure.  Anything less than his own expectations may very well get him fired.

3. Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati Bengals

This is a complicated one.  Some say Lewis has never been on the hot seat, others say he has been on it since 2005.  Confused yet?

The big knock against Lewis with the Bengals is that he has actually never won a playoff game.  He’s been in January games the last four years, and before that, in 2005 and 2009.  However, the amount of time Lewis has in the Queen City is probably tied to quarterback Andy Dalton.  Dalton was tied for third in the league in interceptions last season and has a 3-2 touchdown to interception ratio for his career (that’s not very good).

Dalton’s playoff TD-INT ratio? 1-6.  That’s worse.  And it will have to get better if Lewis wants to keep his job past this season.

2. Joe Philbin, Miami Dolphins

Unlike the situation in Cincinnati, this one seems fairly obvious. Philbin (and quarterback Ryan Tannehill) are in their fourth season together and the first three have been… eh.

In 2012, the Fish were 7-9.  The last two years, they’ve been 8-8.  But their schedule this season provides the best chance yet to make the playoffs.  Their first six opponents (Redskins, Jaguars, Bills, Jets, Titans, Texans) all give the Fins opportunities for early wins.  The schedule gets tougher after that, but the Dolphins have a chance to be a playoff team this year.

Unless they do what they have done every year under Philbin’s reign. Here’s what ESPN’s Rich Cimini wrote about Philbin’s future, or lack thereof, on South Beach:

It has to be Philbin. All the warning signs are there: He has a mediocre record (23-25) and no playoff appearances in three years, a new boss (Tannenbaum) in charge of the football operation and an owner (Ross) who spent major bucks in the offseason and wants results now. It’s hard to imagine Philbin surviving another playoff-less season. Tannenbaum made a lot of changes to the roster in his first season, and he will bring in his own coach if Philbin stumbles again. How do you think Tannenbaum-Eric Mangini 2.0 will play in South Beach? Don’t laugh: It could happen if Philbin goes 0-for-4. It’s unusual in the NFL for a coach to get a fifth crack at the postseason. Philbin has a $96 million quarterback (Ryan Tannehill), a revamped receiving corps and Ndamukong Suh on defense. Get it done, Joe.

No playoffs, no Philbin.  It’s very cut and dry.

1. Chip Kelly

It seems like Kelly has all the power in Philly.  He made all the moves this offseason (I mean, all the moves) and the team now looks like maybe, possibly, a reflection of him.  So how could someone with all the power be deposed?

With a bad season, that is. This is what Brandon Lee Gowton of Bleeding Green Nation had to say about this subject:

After being on the hot seat every year since he took over, I think it’s fair to say it’s not Jason Garrett. (And I do think we all overstated how hot his seat actually was.) It’s easy to say Tom Coughlin or Jerry Reese with the Giants, too. But I’m going with Chip Kelly. The Eagles’ moves this offseason have been all about Kelly. The trade of LeSean McCoy was at first called a salary-cap move, but then the Eagles put big money into DeMarco Murray and solid money into Ryan Mathews. I’m not ready to say Kiko Alonso will be a star the way McCoy is a star. The trade for Sam Bradford is a huge risk considering the quarterback’s injury history. They have taken an interesting route with their receivers. If this doesn’t work out for the Eagles, then Kelly will have nobody to blame but himself.

Yeah, no one else is left to blame here.  It’s Kelly, himself, and him.  If this fails, we can’t look to blame anyone else.

If Kelly fails, he can easily go back to college.  It’s not as crazy as it sounds: if Jim Harbaugh could do it, why can’t he?

Agree or no?  Leave an opinion in the comments section.

(c) 2015

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Meet Your National League Rookie of the Year

 

To date, there has been much debate about who the National League Rookie of the Year is, and for good reason.  The Cubs’ Kris Bryant and the Dodgers’ Joc Pederson have each had outstanding freshman campaigns, so great that both were even named to the NL All-Star team.  The buzz has become about these two, the young guns of baseball, the future of the game.  This is true, but the Rookie of the Year award is about the present, and both are slumping as of right now.

But there’s one player no one is talking about, even though he’s worthy of high praise and lots of attention: Giants’ third baseman Matt Duffy.

Before you can say, “Wow, you’re crazy”, I’ll give you evidence.  Jacob Shafer at Bleacher Report wrote about this yesterday:

Unlike Bryant and Pederson, Duffy’s place in the everyday lineup was anything but assured.

San Francisco opened the season with veteran Casey McGehee installed at third base, replacing All-Star/panda-hat-seller Pablo Sandoval, who bolted via free agency to the Boston Red Sox.

Duffy made the team out of spring as a utility infielder, and by May, he began getting regular starts at the hot corner. On May 24, San Francisco designated McGehee for assignment, effectively handing Duffy the gig. It was a leap of faith, considering Duffy played almost exclusively shortstop in the minors, logging just three games at third in three MiLB seasons.

Duffy seized the opportunity, and by the end of June, he was hitting .297 with an .825 OPS.

In fact, it’s difficult to imagine where the Giants—who currently sit at 57-47 and in line for the NL’s second wild card—would be without their current No. 3 hitter.

There’s no telling where the Giants would be without him.  There’s also more to the pro-Duffy argument than just his value to the Giants. For the sake of this article, we’ll mostly stick to comparing Duffy to Pederson and Bryant.

Duffy leads all National League rookies in batting average (.301).  The only rookie in baseball whose batting average eclipses that of Duffy is Devon Travis at .304.  But Travis has had 238 at bats, and when that figure is compared to Duffy’s 358, we realize that Duffy has excelled with a larger sample size.  Bryant and Pederson?  .246 and .223, respectively.  It’s obvious; maybe Duffy is just a better hitter than Bryant and Pederson.

And lest you think there isn’t more, there is.  The strikeout rate of the Duffman, Silk, and Joc tells the most interesting story of all.  Duffy’s K% is 17.0, which, in the pool of qualified rookie hitters, is seventh-lowest.  This is a sharp contrast to Bryant and Pederson.  Why? Bryant strikes out 30.6% of the time, fourth among rookies.  Pederson is right behind him at 30.2%, which is sixth among first-year players. Ouch.

The one weakness of Duffy’s is that he does not walk nearly as much as the other players in the rookie field.  While Bryant has a walk rate of 13.3% and Pederson has one of 13.9%, Duffy’s is just 4.2%.  How does this translate to his on-base percentage?  It limits his OBP, but only to a very respectable .341.  Kris and Joc have an edge here, but only a slight one; theirs are .354 and .345, respectively.  While Duffy loses, he doesn’t lose by a lot.

There’s another factor at play here; the parks these players play in. While Pederson and Bryant are obviously better home run hitters than Duffy (they both competed in the Home Run Derby, with Pederson making the final), at least part of it has to be AT&T Park, which has the lowest home run factor in baseball, according to ESPN’s “Park Factors”.  Dodger Stadium (Pederson’s home stadium) and Wrigley Field (Bryant’s home field) rank 12th and 15th, respectively.

Despite said park factors, I was floored to find this piece of information: Duffy’s slugging percentage is higher than Pederson’s and Bryant’s.  That’s right; despite the elevated home run numbers of Joc Pederson and Kris Bryant, the highest slugging percentage of the three belongs to Matt Duffy.  This shows the value of not striking out and hitting for average, both of which Duffy does very well.  If Pederson or Bryant could consistently hit for average, their SLG% would be higher.  But they don’t, so this is a moot point.

I’ll leave my last point to ESPN’s David Schoenfield, because he already took the words right out of my mouth on July 29:

So who has been the best rookie in the National League?

Matt Duffy.

The unheralded San Francisco Giants infielder began the season as the team’s utility infielder but became the starting third baseman when veteran Casey McGehee flunked his opportunity. Entering Wednesday, Duffy is hitting .304/.345/.468, with nine home runs, 16 doubles, four triples and 46 RBIs.

In what has turned into a crowded race with several good candidates, Duffy leads all NL rookies in Wins Above Replacement:

Duffy, Giants: 3.4

Jung Ho Kang, Pittsburgh Pirates: 3.0

Bryant, Cubs: 2.6

Randal Grichuk, St. Louis Cardinals: 2.6

Pederson, Dodgers, 2.4

(Giants teammate Chris Heston has a 1.5 WAR, but his 11-5 record and 3.14 ERA makes him a strong contender as well.)

If you think Duffy’s edge in WAR is simply the result of some statistical mumbo-jumbo, think again. His OPS is .813, Pederson’s is .816 and Bryant’s is .806. Duffy has put up similar offensive numbers while playing in a pitcher’s park. Add in his solid defense at third base and he has been the most valuable rookie in the majors. In fact, the guy who hit three home runs last season at Double-A — and who just three years ago was drafted in the 18th round out of Long Beach State after hitting zero home runs in his college career — has been hitting third for the defending champs for the past month.

Right.  Matt Duffy is the most valuable rookie in the NL.

By writing this, I’m not trying to say that Duffy should definitely win Rookie of the Year; there is a lot of baseball yet to be played.  His sudden power surge may end and his numbers might just fall back down to earth.  However, if he keeps up his current pace, I definitely think he should win the award.  If he does, it will be the ultimate surprise in a season full of them.

And it will be a surprise because no one talks about him.

(c) 2015

 

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Winners and Losers: MLB Trade Deadline Edition

 

Johnny Cueto (pictured above), David Price, Troy Tulowitzki, and Yoenis Cespedes were all big names to change teams at trade deadline, just to name a few.  This year’s deadline saw an interesting trading climate, as teams that were expected to sell, like the Padres, didn’t, while teams that were not expected to sell did, like the Tigers. Interestingly enough, the main teams that were buyers on July 31 are all in the midst of long playoff droughts; the Blue Jays (since 1993), the Astros (since 2005), and the Mets (since 2006).

And while every year’s trade deadline has interesting deals and intrigue, the most fun part of analyzing the deals is figuring out who the winners and losers were.  So here it is, the MLB trade deadline, complete with winners and losers.

3. Winner: Kansas City Royals

The Royals made two separate deals in the week leading up to the deadline, acquiring pitcher Johnny Cueto from the Reds and second baseman Ben Zobrist from the A’s.  Kansas City and GM Dayton Moore are going all in this year, and no better indication exists of this fact than what they gave up to get Zobrist and Cueto.  Mike Axisa of CBS Sports explains:

In trading for Cueto and Zobrist, the Royals have given up two of their top three prospects (according to Baseball America). Kansas City has hung onto shortstop prospect Raul Mondesi Jr. Left-hander Sean Manaea is ranked by MLB.com as the No. 56 prospect in the majors. He’s had injury issues with his hip and abdomen (nothing with his arm!) and just reached Class AA after being drafted 34th overall in 2013. Standing 6-foot-5, he can reach the upper 90s with his fastball and showed improved command overall in high A-ball. At 23, reaching the majors sometime in 2016 seems possible. Brooks hasn’t shown much in brief stints with the Royals this season and in 2014, but has averaged 6.9 strikeouts and 1.8 walks over 639 minor-league innings. The A’s could pop him into their rotation now for an extended look.

But these acquisitions are about what the Royals get this year.  In Cueto, they get a dominant starting pitcher (they didn’t have one before) and a major innings eater.  Even with the Royals’ lockdown bullpen, getting to the sixth inning had been a challenge for their starters this season; it won’t be with Cueto.  It’s so important to have good to commanding starting pitching, and having a pitcher of Cueto’s ilk should significantly help the Royals’ chances at their first championship since 1985.  But let’s just hope this doesn’t happen again.

What do the Royals get with Ben Zobrist?  A career .264 hitter who they can play just about anywhere except pitcher and catcher. Zobrist hit second in the lineup yesterday and hit two home runs, helping the Royals to a 7-6 win over the Blue Jays (more on them later).  Another good thing to have come playoff time is the ability to score runs, and when the pitching falls short, being able to still win games.  The Royals did that yesterday, and it will be important to their World Series aspirations to continue scoring runs, runs that will help them continue to win games, a division title, and even a pennant or championship.

3. Loser: Colorado Rockies

This one is pretty simple.  The Rox dealt star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki on July 27, which seems fair enough, considering that they are a struggling team unwilling to spend money.  The return for Tulo? Three pitching prospects… and Jose Reyes.

Reyes has been injury prone throughout his career, and this is only the first reason the move made zero sense for Colorado.  The other reason?  Reyes is making more money than Tulowitzki for each of the next three seasons.  The acquisition of the pitching prospects, namely Castro, was good, but taking on Reyes’ contract was not.

And when the Rockies got Reyes, why didn’t they try to trade him for more prospects?  You may laugh at this assertion in light of the Tulo deal, but Colorado needs more pitching, in the worst way; exactly one pitcher (Boone Logan) on the MLB roster has an ERA under four this year.  Instead, the Rox kept Jose, and will be tied to his contract until 2017.

2. Winner: Toronto Blue Jays

You may not have expected to see the Blue Jays this early in the countdown, but here they are.  However, they are assuredly a winner at the deadline.  Grantland’s Michael Baumann even argues that they are the winners:

I’ve said for years that if the Blue Jays ever realized they’re a big-market team, it could irrevocably change the landscape of the game. The Jays play in an extremely cosmopolitan metro area of more than 5.6 million people (comparable to Houston, Philadelphia, or Washington) and considering that they have 30 million more Canadians to themselves, that Toronto-specific number understates their true commercial and economic reach. Plus, the Jays are owned by Canadian media giant Rogers Communications (think Jonathan Pryce’s character in Tomorrow Never Dies). They could conquer and subjugate Red Sox Nation if they wanted to.

And for once, it’s finally starting to show, as the Jays went out and got the two best players on the market: David Price and Troy Tulowitzki. Even before adding Tulo, Toronto’s offense was already the best in the game, by far, and now the Jays are only two games out of a wild-card spot despite underperforming their run differential by nine games. And it’s not like they only upgraded the top of the lineup and rotation: Mark Lowe and LaTroy Hawkins strengthen the bullpen, while Ben Revere, in addition to having a lovely smile, is a solid on-base guy to plug in left field, even if he has trouble identifying local food. This team is starting to remind me a lot of the 1993 Blue Jays.

Left-handed starter Daniel Norris, probably the best prospect to change hands at the deadline, is a lot of freight to pay for Price, particularly compared to what the Royals gave up for Johnny Cueto, but that’s offset by the degree to which the Blue Jays absolutely bamboozled Colorado for Tulowitzki. A lot of teams got better this week, but Toronto is the winner at the deadline.

They did get better.  You know what they did: they got the best hitter and the best pitcher on the market.  Other than that, they got Mariners reliever Mark Lowe and Phillies outfielder Ben Revere in separate deals.  This one is also easy; the Blue Jays are winners, going for it all this year and giving themselves a shot at their first postseason action in 22 years.

2. Loser: Cincinnati Reds

The Reds traded away Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake to contending teams this deadline (the Royals and the Giants, respectively) without getting too much back in return.  They acquired two prospects in the Cueto trade, and, namely, got Brandon Finnegan from Kansas City. Finnegan projects to be the best player the Reds got in the deal, as the other two prospects they acquired do not have great chances of panning out (one, a pitcher, had Tommy John surgery in 2011, is 25, and just getting back into form now, and the other is a 22-year old AA pitcher).

Then, they decided to deal pitcher Mike Leake to the Giants for prospects Adam Duvall and Keury Mella.  Duvall is almost 27 and has limited action in the majors.  He’s a power hitting first baseman who has hit 26 home runs for the Giants’ AAA team, the Sacramento River Cats, this season.  However, as a corner infielder, he is now stuck behind Todd Frazier and Joey Votto.  Mella is a hyped pitching prospect who, at just 21, has a good chance to be a solid big-league pitcher.

But here’s the issue; they could’ve dealt Aroldis Chapman and/or Jay Bruce, and they didn’t.  While they got five prospects from two different teams, there is a good chance only one or two of them pan out.  They could’ve gotten more by trading more major league talent, but they didn’t.  They lost the deadline.

1. Winner: Houston Astros

The Astros did everything right at this year’s deadline.  They got help where they needed it most, starting pitching, by acquiring Scott Kazmir from the A’s.  They weren’t done there, though, as they picked up outfielder Carlos Gomez and pitcher Mike Fiers from the Brewers for multiple prospects.  While Houston gave up quite a bit in the way of these prospects, they are able to allow themselves to part with them because of the depth they have accumulated on the farm.

Let Joon Lee of SB Nation explain:

The Astros lost and lost and lost for so many years to accumulate seemingly endless depth in the farm system. While a lot of that prospect depth is now finally culminating in major league success for players such as Dallas Keuchel and Carlos Correa, the team’s minor league depth gave the organization the personnel flexibility to acquire big assets to prime themselves for a competitive run at the playoffs. Even after the team’s trades for Gomez, Kazmir and Fiers, the Astros still possess 14 prospects graded 50 or better (on a 20-80 prospect scale) according to MLB.com. The Astros’ prospect depth allowed them to not only position themselves to succeed in the short term, but also to continue to build towards the future.

But Houston is not in the position to buy at the deadline without the team’s moves in the offseason: the signings of Luke Gregerson, Pat Neshek and Colby Rasmus, the trades for Evan Gattis and Hank Conger and the waiver claim of Will Harris. The moves allowed Luhnow to balance future financial flexibility while positioning the team to compete in 2015. While many did not recognize it at the time, the Houston Astros had one of the best offseasons in years.

He’s right: the Astros can give up prospects.  They’ll still have plenty more.

1. Loser: San Diego Padres

Duh; the Pods didn’t do anything.  They could have dealt either Justin or Melvin Upton; they didn’t.  They could’ve traded star closer Craig Kimbrel; they didn’t.  They could have moved starters Tyson Ross and/or James Shields and/or Andrew Cashner; they didn’t.  They could have re-stacked their farm system; they didn’t.

However, the most hilarious train of thought that any GM had at this year’s deadline came from theirs, A.J. Preller.  Ken Rosenthal reports:

Yes, he actually thinks that.  San Diego is 7 games back of the second Wild Card spot in the National League as of today, August 2.  They also happen to be 10.5 games ahead of the Phillies.  They aren’t making the playoffs.

Agree?  Disagree?  Let me know in the comments section.

(c) 2015