Dave Roberts – Sully's World of Sports

The Major League Baseball season is 162 games long and lasts for six months; what happens in the last three months is far more important than what happens in the first three. However, the first 100 games of the season can give us a snapshot of what’s to come and which players are the best in both leagues. In this article, we’ll take a look at the award winners for both leagues over the course of the season’s first 100 games of the season. It’s been a fun year, one that has already broken records and captivated fans.

In this post, we’ll look at numbers both traditional and advanced to pick out the very best in both leagues. I’ll explain some of the more advanced statistics when we get to them; basically, I’m trying to weed out fairly useless stats such as RBI and pitcher wins in order to get to the bottom of who the best players in baseball really are.

So here we go. These are, through about 100 games of the season, the award winners in both the American and the National League. We’ll start in the AL.

American League

Most Valuable Player: Aaron Judge, RF/New York Yankees

Stats (AL Rank)

AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	RE24	wRC+	WAR
.310 (10)	.434 (1)	.649 (1)	.1083 (1)	32 (1)	41.54 (1)	182 (1)	5.4 (1)

All rise!

The production of Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge speaks for itself. He is first in baseball in wRC+ (weighted runs created plus) to this point of the season, first in OPS, first in slugging percentage, first in home runs, first in RE24 (run expectancy for the 24 base-out states), and first in walk percentage. Judge has been the most productive player in the American League this season, which means that you’d probably be surprised to hear that I kind of struggled with this one.

Consider this: in the category of Win Probability Added, a statistic that is exactly what it sounds like, Judge is sixth in the American League. He also strikes out in 30.1% of his plate appearances, the sixth-highest rate among qualified hitters in the AL. Ultimately, I looked past those numbers because Judge has been so dominant in just about every other mainstream and sabermetric offensive category. However, this isn’t the runaway that everyone thinks it is, with players like Jose Altuve, Chris Sale (more on him shortly), and George Springer nipping at his heels.

Honorable Mentions: George Springer (Astros), Jose Altuve (Astros), Chris Sale (Red Sox), Khris Davis (Athletics)

Cy Young Award: Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox

Stats (AL Rank)

IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	FIP	SIERA	RE24	RA9-WAR
141.1 (1)	2.48 (1)	0.89 (1)	12.74 (1)	1.97 (1)	2.52 (1)	30.30 (1)	5.6 (1)

I’m going to get in trouble for using some of these stats if I don’t explain them, so here goes.

SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA) is an attempt to answer just what makes a certain pitcher successful. It rates ground balls as more valuable than fly balls and getting strikeouts as the most valuable skill of all. FIP (fielding-independent pitching) takes the defense behind the pitcher out of the equation and rates his performance independent of that. RA9-WAR is the pitching equivalent of Wins Above Replacement except that it uses runs allowed per nine innings as its barometer of success. RE24 is the same for pitchers as it is for hitters, and a higher number means that a certain pitcher is negatively affecting the other team’s run expectancy over the course of a game.

Got all those stats down? Good, because Red Sox pitcher Chris Sale is the American League’s best starter in every one of those categories. He’s also first in ERA and strikeout rate; in fact, in his last start, Sale became the fastest pitcher to reach 200 strikeouts in a season in MLB history. Sale is on pace for over 300 strikeouts on the season and has been the American League’s most dominant pitcher so far this season. This is a no-brainer if I’ve ever seen one.

Honorable Mentions: Corey Kluber (Indians), Marcus Stroman (Blue Jays), Luis Severino (Yankees)

Rookie of the Year: Aaron Judge, RF/New York Yankees

See American League MVP above.

Honorable Mentions: Trey Mancini (Orioles), Jordan Montgomery (Yankees), Ben Gamel (Mariners), Jacob Faria (Rays)

Manager of the Year: A.J. Hinch, Houston Astros

The Houston Astros are having the best season in the American League and are on pace for 107 wins. Hinch, the one-time Stanford psych major, has undoubtedly been part of the Astros’ success so far this season. He has managed through injuries to ace Dallas Keuchel and shortstop Carlos Correa and, all the while, has led Houston to a whopping 17-game lead in the AL West. You could go with someone like the Twins’ Paul Molitor in this spot, but I’m going to take the manager of the best team in the American League, and that man happens A.J. Hinch.

Honorable Mentions: Paul Molitor (Twins), Joe Girardi (Yankees), Kevin Cash (Rays)

National League

Most Valuable Player: Bryce Harper, RF/Washington Nationals

Stats (NL Rank)

AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	RE24	wRC+	WAR
.336 (3)	.441 (2)	.634 (1)	.1075 (1)	25 (T-4)	46.67 (1)	172 (2)	4.8 (2)

Bryce Harper is second on his own team in Wins Above Replacement to Washington’s third baseman, Anthony Rendon. That said, he’s still the MVP of the National League to this point in the year.

Harper ranks first in the National League in RE24, Win Probability Added, and slugging percentage. He’s also second in wRC+ and on-base percentage. Harper is in the top five of just about every significant offensive category. His all-around greatness shouldn’t be taken lightly, and it’s become clear that he’s the best player in the National League right now. Through 100 games, he’s been the most valuable player in the National League, even if he (technically) isn’t the Most Valuable Player on his own team.

Honorable Mentions: Anthony Rendon (Nationals), Joey Votto (Reds), Justin Turner (Dodgers)

Cy Young Award: Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

Stats (NL Rank)

IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	FIP	SIERA	RE24	RA9-WAR
141.1 (1)	2.04 (1)	0.88 (2)	10.70 (3)	2.94 (2)	2.91 (2)	31.10 (1)	5.9 (1)

To be honest, my initial inclination was to give this award to Max Scherzer. However, in the interest of statistical research and analytical thinking, I decided to go with Kershaw by a very slim margin. Here’s why.

Kershaw pulls in ahead of Scherzer in RA9-WAR, RE24, and ERA. RA9-WAR is the important one here, as it is an exact quantification of a pitcher’s value to his team to this point in the season. ERA is also extremely important, as Kershaw is allowing fewer runs than Scherzer per nine innings. It is easy to give this one to Scherzer and you could justify doing that here. Instead, I’m going to take Kershaw, even though he’s about to go to the disabled list with a recurrence of back stiffness.

Honorable Mentions: Max Scherzer (Nationals), Gio Gonzalez (Nationals), Kenley Jansen (Dodgers)

Rookie of the Year: Cody Bellinger, OF/1B/Los Angeles Dodgers

Stats (NL Rank Among Rookies)

AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	RE24	wRC+	WAR
.269 (13)	.352 (6)	.617 (1)	.969 (1)	27 (1)	26.34 (1)	146 (2)	2.6 (1)

If this seems like it’s too easy for you, guess what: it is.

Bellinger is first among NL rookies in OPS, home runs, RE24, WAR, and slugging percentage. He actually gets something of a surprise run in some of these categories from his own teammate, catcher Austin Barnes. Don’t kid yourself, though: to this point, Bellinger has been the National League’s best rookie and his heroics have helped the Dodgers to one of the best 99-game starts in MLB history. Even in the most stacked lineup in Major League Baseball, the rookie first baseman has stood out.

Honorable Mentions: Austin Barnes (Dodgers), Kyle Freeland (Rockies), Josh Bell (Pirates)

Manager of the Year: Dave Roberts, Los Angeles Dodgers

Is this a boring choice? Probably. Is it the right choice? Yes.

Roberts has anchored the Dodgers as they’ve won nearly 69% of their games to this point in the season. The team is currently on pace for a staggering 111 wins, and Roberts has played no small part in their early-season success. Roberts won the award last year, and while voters may be fatigued of voting for the same person they did a season ago, Roberts is clearly the best choice for Manager of the Year.

Honorable Mentions: Bud Black (Rockies), Torey Lovullo (Diamondbacks), Craig Counsell (Brewers)

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts is currently in the running for National League Manager of the Year. Part of his success this season (his team leads the NL West by three games over the Giants) is because of his complete willingness to buck baseball’s common sense and conventional wisdom. He’s done it again, and his most recent unorthodox decision has drawn controversy and skepticism.

Here’s the lowdown: newly-acquired pitcher Rich Hill was tossing a no-hitter through seven frames against the Miami Marlins on Saturday. Hill was coming back after suffering from complications from a blister on the middle finger of his throwing (left) hand. Interestingly enough, this is the second occurrence of the blister, as Hill was forced to miss over a month with the injury after being traded from the A’s at the trade deadline and then a start at the end of August, as well. So it’s not exactly like Hill’s blister wasn’t a concern going into Saturday night’s game. But even with that pretext, Hill reached the end of the seventh inning without allowing a baserunner and having thrown just 89 pitches. So what would Roberts do?

He would decide to remove Hill from the game, making what may very well be the most difficult decision a manager can possibly make.

For one thing, Roberts has demonstrated a willingness to pull the plug on his starting pitchers, even as they have flirted with once-in-a-lifetime feats. In April, Roberts yanked Ross Stripling from his Major League debut after 7.1 no-hit innings. Stripling also happened to be two years removed from Tommy John Surgery. The Dodgers ultimately lost the game in ten innings and Roberts was second-guessed by just about anyone you can imagine. Want to guess who was among those not questioning the manager’s decision? The father of none other than Thomas Ross Stripling.

It’s true: according to reports, Hayes Stripling tearfully thanked Roberts after removing his son from the game. According to that same report, Stripling often eclipsed 120 pitches per start in college, which may have been a factor in his receiving Tommy John Surgery in 2014. So pulling him at that point in the game, disappointing as it may have been, was absolutely the right decision for the young pitcher.

It was also the only decision. The same thing can be said about the Rich Hill ordeal, if only for slightly different reasons.

Hill’s injured blister does not compare to the long-term effects of Tommy John Surgery in any way. However, the injury is one that must be handled delicately, just like Stripling’s elbow was in the early stages of the season. So it would make sense that the Dodgers would want to tread lightly with one of their best pitchers, even though Hill was making his second start since the re-occurrence of the injury.

Let’s think about this, as well: why do we want to see no-hitters and perfect games? We mostly enjoy witnessing them for the raw emotion, the pitcher launching his glove in the air when the game ends, and the players congratulating the pitcher on his achievement. But, other from that, how much do we actually think about the long-term health of the pitcher? In the moment, it’s not something we really consider (unless it’s really obvious, as it was with Johan Santana in 2012). We’re happy when the pitcher finishes off his accomplishment and then we move on. We don’t often consider the long-term effects on pitchers such as Santana and Tim Lincecum, who, three years after throwing 148 pitches in a no-hitter against the Padres, is likely out of baseball for good.

Another thing to consider here is that the Dodgers need Hill down the stretch and potentially into October, as well. As nice as it would have been for Hill to throw a perfect game over the weekend, it’s more important for the Dodgers to prioritize his long-term health and availability over two innings at the end of a game in September (when Hill was removed, the Dodgers led 5-0 and won the game by the same score). Yes, reliever Joe Blanton came in and gave up a hit to end the perfect bid, but the question of “What if Rich Hill stayed in?” contains far worse hypothetical possibilities than that.

For example, what if Hill hadn’t left the game and the blister on his middle finger popped open again? If Roberts employed the tact used by many managers in that position and left his pitcher in, he very easily could have aggravated the injury even further. Granted, there’s every possibility that Hill could have remained on the mound and not suffered an injury, but the possibility of the worst is what likely led Roberts to pull the trigger. If Hill had indeed gotten injured, we would be scrutinizing Roberts for not protecting an important asset to his team.

And that’s exactly what Hill is. With the Dodgers just three games up on the San Francisco Giants for the NL West lead, the team cannot afford to have more injuries to its starting rotation. Both Hill and ace Clayton Kershaw have both missed significant time this season with injuries, and losing either for any more time would be a serious blow to the Dodgers’ chances of making the playoffs and/or playing well into October. When you think about that dire possibility, is it really all that important that Rich Hill finishes his perfect game?

There are many reasons why Dave Roberts was right to pull Rich Hill from his start last Saturday. There are many points of view from which to examine this debate, but the one that matters the most is that of Rich Hill. If he had hurt himself while trying to complete his perfect game, would it have really been worth the trouble to keep him in the game? I would venture to say so, and it’s apparent that Dave Roberts agrees. More importantly, would it have been fair to Rich Hill to risk his long-term health? I’d say the answer to that is no.

Roberts is certainly not your average manager. He makes unconventional decisions, the most notable of which involve his starting pitchers. But he has done the best he can in protecting them, and the curious case of Rich Hill is no different.

Which is why he deserves credit, not blame, for how he handled this situation.

Tag: Dave Roberts

The 100-Game MLB Awards

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