Since 1988, former Oklahoma State running back Barry Sanders held the record for all-purpose yards with 3,250. In just 11 games, it was one of the most unbelievable records ever held in college football or any other sport, for that matter, and it was one of the few records that looked as if it might never be broken. That unbeatable record was smashed last weekend.
It was broken by none other than Stanford running back Christian McCaffrey.
Before we go any further, McCaffrey broke the record in 13 games as opposed to Sanders’ 11. He also had 413 touches against Sanders’ 394. But forget all of that: he broke of the longer-standing and harder-to-break records in sports, and there should be something to show for that. But will that thing be a Heisman Trophy?
McCaffrey will be in New York on Saturday night as one of three Heisman finalists, along with Alabama running back Derrick Henry and Clemson quarterback DeShaun Watson. According to OddsShark, Henry is the overwhelming favorite to win the trophy, with McCaffrey far behind and Watson even further off the pace, and many prognosticators think he is going to win the award. I think he’s going to win it. It is almost a foregone conclusion that he is going to be the Heisman Trophy winner in 2015, but should he be? According to statistics, the answer is no.
For starters, McCaffrey obviously has more all-purpose yards than anyone else in the field (all-purpose encapsulates rushing, receiving, and punt and kick return yardage). With that out of the way, he still deserves the Heisman over Henry.
There are plenty of reasons why he should win the Heisman, but the main one is that we, as college football fans, have just never seen anyone have such a great season in the sport in a long, long time. While the seasons of Henry and Watson have been incredible in their own right and would be worthy of winning the award in almost any other season, McCaffrey’s season has not just been really good; it’s been historic. It has transcended the usual year-to-year performances that are rewarded with trips to Gotham; this is a performance that should be rewarded with acclaim for decades to come. This was one of the greatest seasons ever, and it should be rewarded with a Heisman.
One of the reasons, however, that McCaffrey will likely fall short of winning the sport’s greatest individual honor is because of team performance. Out of the three teams of finalists for the trophy, McCaffrey’s Cardinal are the only one not represented in this year’s College Football Playoff. The reason is two losses, one in September to Northwestern and the other in November to the team’s biggest rival, Oregon. McCaffrey only struggled in the Northwestern game (he only rushed for 66 yards) but even in a game in which he supposedly faltered, he still had 171 all-purpose yards. In the Oregon game, he had 244 all-purpose yards. No blame can be laid there, and it really wasn’t his fault that Stanford lost either game.
As for Henry, he was able to amass 166 rushing and receiving yards in Alabama’s one loss to Ole Miss. Watson did not lose, so it’s impossible to see what he would do with his team on the losing end. Here’s the thing, though: McCaffrey is impossible to stop. If a defense holds down one area of his game, it quite possibly opens up another. He can’t be held down, and the best defenses can hope to do is contain him. Or, a defense could do what USC did and stop no areas of his game. He’s one of the most tantalizing players the game has seen recently, and it’s just difficult to completely shut him down.
That’s not to say, of course, that it’s easy to contain Henry, but if a defense is somehow able to take away his inside running game and not let him get the edge for big plays, he can be contained. He’s not really going to kill you out of the backfield as a receiver or as a return man. McCaffrey can do literally everything for the Cardinal offense, and he’s the main reason the team has gone from 72nd to 27th in total offense in FBS this season. He’s the main reason; there aren’t any others. Alabama’s team offense was 9th in major college football last season, and it’s 34th this season. To be fair, the offense lost wideout Amari Cooper and quarterback Blake Sims, but Henry has not been able to carry the offense the way McCaffrey has.
This is the statistical argument behind Christian McCaffrey’s Heisman candidacy. Here’s another argument: while I’m sure this is true of most other great players, his teammates absolutely love him. Here’s video of him being announced as a Heisman candidate, as well as his teammates going absolutely ape:
That’s really cool. That shows you just how much his teammates want this for him, and how much they appreciate how he’s carried the team over the course of the season as well.
So while other candidates will get more consideration and are deserving of attention, there’s one man who should be the surefire winner of the 2015 Heisman Trophy. He won’t be, but hopefully we can remember in the future just how great he was this season.
Pardon this interruption, but bloggers are people who sit in their mother’s basements and write stuff.
Seems pretty bold coming from someone who runs a blog himself. But don’t take it from me; take it from ESPN’s Michael Wilbon.
Wilbon, along with Tony Kornheiser, is the co-host of the station’s Pardon the Interruption and is also known for his work with the network’s NBA Countdown. Prior to that, he gained notoriety for his work writing about the sports landscape for the Washington Post. He’s survived a lot of change and done a lot of good work during his career, so I’m not going to take any shots at him in this post (besides the intro, because that was low-hanging fruit).
Wilbon was recently on a panel with Kornheiser, USA Today’s Christine Brennan, and Maury Povich (yes, that Maury Povich) to discuss the evolution of journalism. (Povich was on the panel because it was done in conjunction with the Shirley Povich Center for Sports Journalism; Shirley was Maury’s father.)
Anyway, Wilbon was asked by Povich about the change in journalism from when he broke into the business to now. And this is what he said:
What bugs me now is that people is that people sit in their mother’s basements and write this crap and they don’t have any knowledge of what is going on in that place, and it’s too easy to get it. You can go to a game, you can go to a locker room. The only reason to read this stuff is to tell people why something happened, and if you’re not there, and you can’t tell me why it happened, I don’t care about all your advanced analytics and all the other things you concoct.
First of all, I’m not sitting in my mom’s basement right now while I write this article, so he’s kind of wrong with his remarks off the top.
Let me say this: he does make a couple of valid points. For starters, when covering a team, it helps to be in the locker room interviewing players and coaches rather than writing about said team from afar. His other completely correct point comes when he says that people read pieces of sports writing to figure out why something happened; that’s absolutely right. That’s why I don’t write recaps here; sports writing is all about the “why” and not the “how”.
But the “mother’s basement” put-down and “they don’t have any knowledge” points are simply wrong. While it should be noted that Kornheiser and Brennan weren’t too fond of this new journalism, either, they were at least able to stay away from making blanket statements like Wilbon’s. It’s also ironic that Wilbon is saying this coming off the heels off his company’s shutting down of Grantland, which was the greatest example of modern, long-form internet blogging (in other words, journalism).
And about the advanced analytics that he seemingly despises? While we are all entitled to the right to have an opinion, I find Wilbon to be in the wrong here as well. He obviously doesn’t think much of advanced stats in sports, but they aren’t concocted: maybe he should read this article from one of his ESPN colleagues, Tom Haberstroh; in it, Haberstroh combines advanced analytics with solid writing to provide a fascinating lens into the NBA’s gradual acceptance of living and dying by the three.
Teams, especially in Wilbon’s area of expertise, basketball, are relying on advanced analytics more and more. All advanced analytics amounts to is another way for teams to make personnel decisions, and teams that ignore them completely are often left behind because they are disregarding information that could really help them in making future decisions.
But blogging isn’t all about sitting in mom’s basement and writing about stuff. For example, Jessica Mendoza of ESPN (them again) became the first female announcer ever to broadcast an MLB playoff game. The reason why is because the color commentator she was filling in for, Curt Schilling, was suspended, initially because of a tweet equating Muslims to Nazis. Later, he decided to e-mail a writer at Awful Announcing about his displeasure with their reporting on the initial story about the tweet (AA, ironically enough, was one of the first sites to call Wilbon out on his comments at the Povich Symposium).
The site then published Schilling’s e-mail, and he was suspended for the rest of the season, allowing Mendoza to finish off the rest of ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball schedule and the one playoff game the network aired, the American League Wild Card game. Simply enough, if it wasn’t for Awful Announcing, Schilling likely would have returned to the broadcast booth before the end of the season, and no history would be made. Like it or not, the site changed the course of history for both people, as Mendoza earned rave critiques and may very well replace Schilling in the broadcast booth for the long run.
Another, more obvious example of the importance of blogging comes in the form of the Greg Hardy story. As you probably already knew, Deadspin published photos of the aftermath of the domestic incident between him and his ex-girlfriend, Nicole Holder, in early 2014. The images are incredibly disturbing, and no matter where you stand on the story, Deadspin’s publishing of the photos has framed the debate on the issue. The anger toward Greg Hardy may very well have dissipated if it weren’t for our ability to see those pictures.
To conclude, I have a world of respect for Michael Wilbon. Having seen him all over ESPN for as long as I can remember, he always seems fresh and interesting, even as he freely admits that he isn’t quite down with the new way the majority of the people look at sports. His points always bear weight, even as he easily surpasses the topic-to-topic time limits on PTI. They bear weight because of the respect he has among colleagues and people in sports, as well as his vast experience in the industry.
But as much as it pains me to say this, he’s wrong on this one. We don’t just sit in the basement in our underwear and write, and we definitely don’t just spit out nerdy statistics for no particular reason. This mass generalization is unfair, but to be fair to Wilbon, some of us bloggers have probably told people of his ilk to “get off our lawn”. I’m not telling Wilbon to do that, but he needs to respect us and the work we do as indicative of the way sports journalism is going.
(WARNING: article may contain subjects inappropriate for those under the age of nine years old.)
You’re probably reading this and wondering what in the world I’m talking about. Nine years old? Why is that? I’ll explain it near the end of the article.
This controversy started when star quarterback Cam Newton’s Panthers traveled to Nashville to play the Titans. Newton’s Carolina team was 8-0 entering the game; no small feat, especially considering the parity that currently exists in the NFL. Newton is their leader, but he’s also a character the likes of which has rarely been seen in the league recently. He’s not afraid to show his personality, and sometimes, that can get him into trouble with the more rigid of football fans.
Sunday would be possibly the first time he has been heavily criticized for his in-game antics; he caught plenty of heat for things that happened while he was in college, but that was mainly directed at him for off-the-field transgressions, which were nothing compared to what the NFL deals within regards to some of their stars now.
In any event, Newton would lead the Panthers to a late 10-point lead in Tennessee. He played a masterful game, completing 81% of his passes, throwing for over 200 yards, throwing and rushing for a touchdown each in the process. However, the rushing touchdown would be the one that has us talking this week.
After punching it in on the ground from two yards out, Newton proceeded to partake in a dance known as the “dab”, which is credited to the Atlanta hip-hop duo Migos. Anyway, it wasn’t the dance itself that is the problem, it’s the nature in which it was done. See for yourself how Newton sticks it to Tennessee here:
As you can see from the video, the dance was pretty darn in-your-face. Here’s the thing, though: I really didn’t have much of a problem with it. There are any number of reasons why, but I’ll outline a few of them here.
1. He’s 9-0- And All the People Criticizing Him Aren’t
This is the simplest reason why it’s easy to defend Cam here. Whether you like him, dislike him, or compare him to Colin Kaepernick hate him, there are two quarterbacks in the NFL that are undefeated. They are:
Tom Brady (the greatest quarterback ever)
Cam Newton
That’s it. And no, you won’t see Tom Brady hitting any dabs on Sunday, but that’s okay. He and Newton are polar opposites as quarterbacks and leaders, but the marked differences between them is what makes their success so interesting. Newton’s team is having the same amount of success as Brady’s, whether you like that or not. If I was 9-0 in fantasy football, I’d probably be dabbing right now, too. The fact that Newton’s Panthers are 9-0 in real life is more than cause enough to celebrate.
2. Haters Gon’ Hate- But Detractors Need to Direct Their Anger Elsewhere
Speaking of the Panthers, the man in the picture used to play for them. His name is Greg Hardy. He plays for the Cowboys, he is a lot to handle at defensive end, and his presence has improved the team’s defense this season. He also happens to be a proven domestic abuser, and he’ll also be suiting up for Dallas on Sunday with not nearly as much fanfare as Newton (although that’s debatable; the public protest of Hardy has existed, although very intermittently).
If you want to get mad at Hardy, I’m more than okay with that. If you want to get angry at the fact that he’s been playing since week 5, you go do you. But to get mad at Newton more so than you are at Hardy….. come on. You’re just being ridiculous at this point.
You could also get mad at the NFL because the quality of their games is completely terrible; that would make sense as well. But, apparently a dance is worse than both of those things, so I’m glad that we have at least established this for the rest of the season.
NOTE: Before I get into my next point, let me just say that it will be very divisive. I absolutely loathe using this reason for basically anything inside the sports world, and most of the time, I think people use it because it’s an easy cop out. I didn’t want to do this, and it doesn’t apply most of the time anymore (thankfully), but as I thought about the reasons why Newton has gotten so much backlash, this was the first thing that popped into my mind.
After another quarterback did something that should have yielded him double the controversy on the exact same day to maybe half the criticism, I knew why. So, with some trepidation, this is the last reason why people are wrongly criticizing Newton, but shouldn’t….
The Race Card
I still hate this excuse, but this is one of those times when it applies. Warren Moon has repeatedly stated that criticism of Newton is driven by Newton’s being an African-American, and at least in this case, it’s true. I’ll explain why it is briefly but hopefully succinctly.
Later that day, in fact, that night, the Cardinals faced the Seahawks on Sunday Night Football. The Cardinals got what was probably the biggest win of their season, and with it, the NFC West is essentially theirs to lose. After the team had clinched the win, quarterback Carson Palmer got so “excited” that he commanded the Seahawks fans to, well…. judge for yourself. (WARNING: video may be disturbing to some, and I’m actually serious this time.)
So, let’s think: the Palmer gesture was just seeing people and getting excited, but the dab was an in-your-face, outlandish, and inappropriate behavior, showing once and for all that the player in the act of dabbing does not know how to win with grace? Huh, that’s funny. I wonder why that is.
It’s something that Greg Howard of Deadspin wrote about yesterday. I can’t quote the full article because it’s so expletive-laden, but it’s absolutely brilliant. This is the important part:
If the Panthers weren’t undefeated, and if Newton weren’t a midseason MVP candidate, some would take some dabbing as a window into his soul and his future, proof that he’s not and will never be a True Franchise Quarterback. But they can’t anymore. He’s showing with every win that pearl-clutching talk about his maturity or whether he’s appropriately deferential after touchdowns says more about those doing the complaining. Newton’s proving that the things about him that make people so angry are entirely unconnected to his on-field success, and that to “play the right way” is to win and put yourself and your team in a position to dance every week.
Amen. I’ll leave it at that.
Our business is just about done here, but to this point, I’ve left one promise unattended to. Yes, I said I’d get into the whole thing about nine-year olds, and the time has come to talk about what relevance they have to this story.
This isn’t about all third and fourth graders, but it’s about one and her mother. I’m not even going to give my opinion on the letter other than to say this: it’s absurd. I’ll leave it all right here and you can judge its craziness for yourself:
Dear Mr. Newton,
Congratulations on your win in Nashville today. Our team played well, but yours played better. Kudos to the Panthers organization.
That game happened to be my nine year old daughter’s first live NFL experience. She was surprised to see so many Panthers’ fans sitting in our section of the stadium; that doesn’t happen much at fourth grade football games. And she was excited we were near the end zone, so we would be close to the “action,” particularly in the second half.
Because of where we sat, we had a close up view of your conduct in the fourth quarter. The chest puffs. The pelvic thrusts. The arrogant struts and the ‘in your face’ taunting of both the Titans’ players and fans. We saw it all.
I refuse to believe you don’t realize you are a role model. You are paid millions of dollars every week to play hard and be a leader. In the off season you’re expected to make appearances, support charities, and inspire young kids to pursue your sport and all sports. With everything the NFL has gone through in recent years, I’m confident they have advised that you are, by virtue of your position and career choice, a role model.
And because you are a role model, your behavior brought out like behavior in the stands. Some of the Panthers fans in our section began taunting the hometown fans. Many Titans fans booed you, a few offering instructive, but not necessarily family friendly, suggestions as to how you might change your behavior.
My daughter sensed the change immediately – and started asking questions. Won’t he get in trouble for doing that? Is he trying to make people mad? Do you think he knows he looks like a spoiled brat?
I didn’t have great answers for her, and honestly, in an effort to minimize your negative impact and what was otherwise a really fun day, I redirected her attention to the cheerleaders and mascot.
I could tell she was still thinking about it as we boarded a shuttle back to our car. “I guess he doesn’t have kids or a Mom at home watching the game,” she added.
I don’t know about your family life Mr. Newton, but I think I’m safe in saying thousands of kids watch you every week. You have amazing talent and an incredible platform to be a role model for them. Unfortunately, what you modeled for them today was egotism, arrogance and poor sportsmanship.
Is that what your coaches and mentors modeled for you, Mr. Newton?
Newton is absolutely aware of his standing as a role model, but that term means different things to different people. His mom, Jackie, likely was watching the game whilst he dabbed.
And no, that probably isn’t what Cam Newton’s coaches and mentors modeled him for. But it’s what has the Panthers at 9-0, and it’s what has made Newton successful in his young NFL career.
Which is why this debate is coated with a dab of stupidity.
If Father Time really is undefeated, then we just saw the greatest living example of its power. That example comes in the form of Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning.
This may finally be the end for Peyton, the man who just this week set the all-time record in passing yards previously held by Brett Favre. Favre, because he’s a legend, congratulated Manning in the only way he knew how, which was from a tree stand while hunting in the woods:
**VIDEO** Brett Favre congratulates Peyton Manning … while hunting from a tree stand pic.twitter.com/RpnjR6975V
All that aside, Manning may very well be the greatest regular-season quarterback to ever play in the NFL. But, as many wise people have said, all good things must come to an end, and Peyton Manning’s career has reached the same fate that every other good thing in the history of the world has: the end.
The end for Manning has been abrupt. It came without warning. But most importantly, it was no different from what happens to every other NFL player at a certain stage in his career; said player’s skills decline and no team in their right mind would sign that player, so the player is left with no other choice but to retire.
And in most cases, those players have absolutely no clue what to do when they reach retirement. Luckily for number 18, he has endorsements such as Nationwide. And Papa John’s. And DirecTV. And Gatorade. He’s prepared for retirement, and that’s a good thing. Unfortunately, retirement will (or at least should) be coming soon.
Manning threw four interceptions in Sunday’s home loss to the Chiefs, and looked like a shell of himself for the entire day; he would be benched in favor of backup Brock Osweiler in the third quarter. And to put it plainly, Peyton has looked like a shell of himself for about the last calendar year. Starting with a loss to the Rams around this date last year (November 16th, 2014), Manning has thrown 25 interceptions against just 19 touchdowns. This is a sharp contrast from his career 2.15:1 touchdown to interception ratio; if you were to remove the numbers of the last calendar year from Peyton’s resume, his TD-INT ratio would be 2.3:1.
He has stunningly thrown an interception in each of the first nine Broncos games this season; to compare, there were nine games last season in which he didn’t throw a pick, so the sharp decline means that something else must be at play here. That thing that is at play is the silent killer of NFL careers; injuries.
Before we get into the more recent injury(ies) Peyton is dealing with, the more long term one has to do with the feeling he has in his hands, or lack thereof. If you saw Peyton Manning play for the Colts, you know he had one of the strongest arms in football. I mean, just check out some of the lasers he was chucking for the team in his then-record-setting 2004 season, one that saw him throw an unprecedented 49 touchdowns.
Manning would come back to break that record with the Broncos in 2013. He threw 55 TDs that season, but if you look closely, you can clearly tell that his arm strength is fading by this point.
Why did that arm strength fade? There is not one definitive answer, but one of the main explanations for this sudden drop-off is his fingertips, and the fact that, you know, he has no feeling in them. This is what Manning said to Sports Illustrated’s Peter King in August:
“I can’t feel anything in my fingertips,” Manning said Thursday. “It’s crazy. I’ve talked to a doctor recently who said, Don’t count on the feeling coming back. It was hard for me for about two years, because one doctor told me I could wake up any morning and it might come back. So you wake up every day thinking, Today’s the day! Then it’s not.”
This is just me talking here, and I’m not Peyton Manning. But if I had no feeling in my fingertips and I may not ever get them back again, I would probably retire. That being said, his comeback from four neck surgeries in 2011 is nothing short of brave and admirable, and he should be commended for coming back from such a dire state. I still can’t wrap my head around the fact that he was able to play so well without any arm strength or feeling in his fingers for his first two and a half years in Denver. But if it were my decision, I would have hung it up after having the neck surgeries and finding out that I couldn’t feel the tips of my fingers anymore.
The other far less serious and shorter-term injury that Peyton has incurred is a partial tear of the plantar fascia in his left foot, which should keep him out at least for this week against the Bears. Osweiler, who went 14-24 for 146 yards after Peyton was benched midway through the third quarter, will take his place in the meantime. Osweiler is not a great option at quarterback but, as painful as this is to say, he’s obviously a better option than Manning at this point.
Unfortunately, it’s pretty safe to say that Peyton Manning is at the end of his rope in terms of his illustrious career. His decline is remarkably similar to that of Dan Marino, and while the two will be united in Canton soon enough, Marino’s decline was eerily similar to that of Manning’s; Dan’s team reached the playoffs in his final season and he threw more interceptions than touchdowns in 2000 as well, just like Manning is doing in 2015.
Additionally, the only way Manning can reclaim his 2015 season is to get fully healthy again, and while that may take some time, the Broncos have no other option at this point but to bench him and allow his foot injury to heal. Also, it wouldn’t hurt if he magically recovered the lost feeling in his fingertips; it seems to be what has caused his arm strength to go out the window in his Denver years.
Peyton Manning is one of the best quarterbacks ever; even though many rag on him for his career record in the playoffs (11-13), he routinely took teams to January that had no business being there without his presence; this is especially true in his years with the Colts. He’s one of the all-time greats, whether he under-performed in the playoffs or not.
But there is one opponent he couldn’t conquer: father time.
While I don’t usually like writing about 2-7 football teams and I only really write about topics I find interesting, this is a very rare exception.
With the circus and everlasting drama that has become the Cleveland Browns’ quarterback situation and the eternal craziness that surrounds new starter Johnny Manziel, this is a team and a state of affairs that is worthy of being addressed. So let’s address it.
Basically, you see, what had happened was, Browns starting quarterback Josh McCown was concussed when he tried to helicopter over two Jets defenders in week 1 (that wasn’t the best idea). He was replaced by backup/lightning rod Johnny Manziel, and, put simply, Manziel did pretty well. Manziel, known to that point in his NFL career for his drinking problems and extended stay in rehab to get them under control, had struggled mightily in his one full game last season, throwing for just 80 yards in a 30-0 hammering at the hands of the in-state rival Bengals.
Manziel threw for 182 yards in that game against the Jets, ending the contest with a touchdown and an interception. He would get the start the next week due to the McCown injury and defeated the Titans in easily the best performance of his young career. While he only put the ball in the air 15 times, he threw for two touchdowns, 11.5 yards per attempt, and, most importantly, did not turn the ball over. But the Browns and head coach Mike Pettine decided to go back to McCown in week 3, and McCown rightfully kept the job after averaging 384.67 yards per game for the next three weeks.
Unfortunately, losing his starting job led to Manziel, at least in one instance, returning to drinking. Of course, he shouldn’t win the starting job because he has difficulties handling a backup role, but this is simply the most likely reason why this occurred. It’s a shame, but Manziel clearly has to learn how to handle failure, and part of his lack of success in the NFL has been caused by his inability to do so.
But that was then, and this is now. McCown’s performance took a step back after his ludicrously impressive three-week run, and he injured his shoulder in a week 7 loss to the Rams. At this point, it was time for Manziel to step in again, and he would lead the 2-6 Browns into Cincinnati last Thursday night to play the team that ruined his debut a year ago. How would he fare?
The answer depends on your dissemination of his play. While his numbers are thoroughly underwhelming (15-33, 168 yards, one touchdown), he did something that he failed to do last season: protect the football. Cleveland would lose 31-10, but Manziel orchestrated a ten-play, 92 yard drive for the Browns’ only touchdown right before the end of the first half. His second half was marked with inconsistency, but he was still able to protect the ball through his struggles.
So why exactly is it time to give the keys to the offense to Manziel, even when McCown has clearly played better? For one thing, youth is obviously on Manziel’s side (he is 22; McCown is 36) and at this point, Manziel has the higher ceiling. The Browns fell to 2-7 with the loss on Thursday, and it became apparent a long time ago that they aren’t going anywhere in 2015.
Letting Manziel play out the rest of the regular season serves a dual purpose; 1) the organization can figure out if Manziel can sustain his somewhat impressive play and 2) if Manziel fails, the team will realize this, lose, and probably get a high draft pick. They could use that high draft pick on a quarterback (California’s Jared Goff and Penn State’s Christian Hackenberg are the two most highly-touted QBs in this year’s class) and move on from Manziel/McCown.
This is a point that was visited by Bleacher Report’s Gary Davenport on Friday:
Where he then proceeded to play so badly that the Buccaneers cut bait after one year.
Explain to me exactly how this somehow prepares the Browns for a bright future? Or any future?
Of course, the team is presently led by Mike Pettine.
Oh yeah, that’s right. Mike Pettine.
Pettine has been consistently lukewarm toward his current starting quarterback’s style of play, and he is not overly appreciative of Manziel’s tendency of create plays outside the pocket. When asked by reporters about his quarterback’s performance against Cincinnati, he responded in exactly the manner in which you would expect. These are all real quotes.
“No, I can’t (say he’ll play the next game)…. When we get in and get back from this time off, we’ll assess what pool of players are available and go ahead and make those decisions from there. This will be a good time to step away and reassess where we are moving forward.”
“It was just inconsistent…. He did some good things, but in the second half, especially after we fell behind, he was just trying to make too many big plays instead of just taking completions …. It’s also a function of how well we play around him…. I don’t know if in the second half we played well enough around him for him to play well.”
Pettine is absolutely correct in stating that Manziel was inconsistent. He is also correct in stating that the Browns were not good enough around him. I wouldn’t say this play was good enough on Thursday night:
It’s not a surprise, then, that the Browns had it taken to them in the second half. But that isn’t Manziel’s fault; why is his coach emphasizing his inconsistency and stressing the need for the team to look at all options instead of just letting Manziel play?
I honestly can’t tell you why this hasn’t happened already, but the Browns really should give Johnny Manziel a chance. And a real chance at that; don’t just give him another game or two and hand the reins back to McCown. The former has shown that he is at least capable of playing at the professional level, and he should be given an opportunity/audition to prove that he can be the team’s franchise quarterback going forward.
If the team elects to go back to McCown, though, it will probably be setting itself further back. A move like this would disallow the team to get a good look at a very clear future.
One of the NBA teams widely predicted to succeed and make the playoff in the 2015-16 season was undoubtedly the Houston Rockets. Of course, the best laid plans of mice, men, and should-have-been-MVPs often go awry, and the Rockets have started 2-3. They lost their first three games, and, most importantly, all by at least 20 points. Granted, the team has won its last two and still has James Harden and Dwight Howard, but is it time to panic in Clutch City?
The short answer is yes. The long answer, as is always the case, is far more complicated.
One of the good signs for Kevin McHale’s team is that it has not gone back on its style of play in the early going. The team attempted 32.7 attempts from three-point range last season, and this season they’re not too far off that pace. They’re all the way down to 31.4 attempts per night. Still leading the league in beyond-the-arc attempts like they did last season, the Rockets aren’t about to go back on what has worked over the last three seasons.
But, of course, taking three point shots is the second most important thing for the Rockets. The absolute most important thing is to actually make them, which is something that the Rockets have not done with really any success this season. I never really thought I’d actually find myself saying this, but the loss of Josh Smith has not done Houston any favors in the three-point department this season. Smith only shot 33% from deep a year ago, but his presence helped James Harden and others get open looks. It’s a kind of domino effect; when Smith left, the other players (Harden, Corey Brewer, Ty Lawson, others) weren’t able to get quite the same open looks that they were last season.
Really, the inability to shoot from three is the main reason why the Rockets have struggled this season. And as much as I appreciated and respected what James Harden accomplished last season (who remembers this one?), it’s difficult not to call him out for just how badly he’s struggled in the early going. From beyond the three-point line this season, he’s a lackluster 9-55, and on all of his field goals, he’s gone 30-102.
If you look at his numbers from beyond the arc compared with his other shooting numbers, something becomes very clear: he’s taking more threes than twos. Last season, 37.8% of his field goal attempts were threes, but considering that he is asked to carry so much of the load for an otherwise mediocre Rockets team and that he is a career 37% three-point shooter, that number is…. healthy. For his career, his three-point attempts have accounted for about 40% of his field goal tries, which is sort of high. For context, the best three-point shooter in the game today, Stephen Curry, has used about 41% of his attempts on threes. All things being equal, Harden just isn’t aggressive enough.
To be completely fair to Harden, free throw attempts do comprise a large part of his game, and this year is no different (11.8 per game, 85%). But he still needs to be aggressive, and it’s no different as far as the team is concerned. The entire squad is shooting just 27.4% from deep this season, and Harden’s 16.4% figure is the biggest reason why. If Harden isn’t making baskets, it becomes infinitely more difficult for others to get open, kind of like the aforementioned domino effect with Josh Smith.
Their inconsistency from the field, as well as in all areas of their overall game, is why they have come out so slowly this season. As Calvin Watkins of ESPN points out, the team will be fine, but the thought of future inconsistency is a scary proposition for Houston:
Harden will undoubtedly be fine, and with Lawson finding more of a comfort level within the offense, things will improve.
It’s just the inconsistency that leaves you shaking your head considering how talented the Rockets are and how they’re not playing to their potential.
“Right now, we’re not in a great rhythm on either side of the ball, but we’ll find it,” McHale said. “We showed spurts of it, the 68 points in the first half was nice and then we kind of fell back to old habits.”
The inconsistency and the struggles from the field are two biggest reasons why the Rockets have struggled so far. Another explanation for why they’ve fallen short of expectations? Defense.
To date, the Houston defense has surrendered 109 points per game, the fifth most in the association. That unit has floundered along with the offense. If you put the two together, you’ll get this result: a -10 point differential. Granted, it’s five games, and the team will make up the difference; not one team had a point differential as bad as -10 a year ago (not even the Knicks). But this is the problem: it would be more likely that the difference is made up by the Rockets’ offense coming around than the defense suddenly turning it around.
One cannot simply expect the team to continue to fight its way through inconsistency and come up with lousy results. This is too good of a team for that to happen, and with the reigning runner-up for MVP on the roster and the talent that exists, things will even out and the team will (sooner or later) escape from its short-lived swoon.
But, with things being what they are (and the Western Conference still being insanely good), there is some reason to panic in Clutch City. Given how quickly things change in a conference where just about every night brings a challenging contest, the Rockets need to figure out their issues that much more quickly if they want to have a middle to even high seed in the playoffs and a realistic chance to win a championship. They’ll be fine eventually, but there should be some reason for urgency (but not necessarily concern) inside the organization.
But, I think this would be a good time for all Rockets fans to just close their eyes. It will all be over soon.
The New England Patriots could really go undefeated this season, which would have really sounded like a ridiculous statement on September 2. Of course, the long national nightmare that was Deflategate ended the next day and Tom Brady was rightfully exonerated of any known wrongdoing in the matter. He would miss no games. The Patriots were set.
And by set, I mean…. they were on their way to continuing their complete reign of terror over the rest of the NFL.
It started with a seven point win over the Steelers on the Thursday night to commence the season (the Steelers only lost by a touchdown, but they also scored on the last play of the game to make the score this close; the only real consequence of the final play was suffered in Las Vegas, and we know how important that is).
What came next would be a 40-32 squeaker over the Bills, but the Patriots were leading 37-13 going into the 4th quarter. So they really dominated both games in the first two weeks of the season but only won each by one possession. If you think that this is a sign of the team “leaking oil” (they had two more one-possession wins against the Colts and Jets), well…. you’re probably right. But there is also the very present and real possibility that the team could go undefeated this season.
There are a couple of similarities that everyone knows between the 2007 Patriots, the last undefeated regular season team in the NFL, and this year’s team. There are three to be exact. Here they are, in no particular order.
The team was going on a revenge tour (post-Spygate in 2007, post-Deflategate in 2015)
Bill Belichick
Tom Brady
Literally, that’s it. The obvious similarities end here, which is not a surprise considering that the undefeated run happened eight years ago. So much changes in the NFL from year to year, let alone week to week (See: Kaepernick, Colin) and the fact that there are even this many parallels between 2007 and 2015 is nothing short of a shock.
What are the differences? There are some (mostly personnel and not talent), but interestingly enough, defense is not one of them.
The 2007 New England Patriots defense allowed all of 17.1 points per game, which ranked fourth in the league that season. Last year’s Super Bowl winning Patriots squad gave up 19.6 points per game, but their defense helped them win two games that they probably should have lost in the first month of the season. This year’s defense, although with very different personnel, is actually putting up very similar numbers.
How similar? Actually, they aren’t just similar, they’re even slightly better. Last year’s team was 13th in the league in yards allowed, surrendering just over 344 per game. This year’s team is actually allowing more yards per contest (346) but somehow rank 12th; this is probably due to the constantly improving state of offense in the NFL…. and the league’s defense-deterring rules package.
In terms of points per game, the 2015 defense is again doing better than last year’s defense, amazingly. This year’s D is only allowing 19 per game, and they’re doing it without Vince Wilfork, Darrelle Revis, and Brandon Browner.
About those losses. They really should be what would make this year’s defense a liability. The Patriots defense really should not be all that good this season. Losing Wilfork, Revis, and Browner is to the Patriots after last season what losing Richard Sherman, Byron Maxwell and Brandon Mebane would have meant to the Seahawks a season ago. That team only lost Maxwell and while they’re still second in the league in yards allowed, their defense isn’t quite as dominant as it was at this time last year. The Patriots’ is somehow better.
And as for the offense, well, you know about the offense. I don’t need to tell you about how Tom Brady is probably the greatest quarterback ever, or how Rob Gronkowski might be the greatest tight end to ever play by the time he’s finished, or about how Julian Edelman has filled the role of Wes Welker (and then some). I don’t need to tell you about any of those things because you already know, and this incredible offense is still the main reason for New England’s success, and as long as Brady is at the helm, it always will be. And, take it from me, NFL: You have ten years left of this (or thereabouts).
The real reason the Patriots should have hope for an undefeated season is obvious: the schedule. They have, at this moment, exactly two games remaining against teams who are over .500, and while they have one more road game than home game from here on out, it’s easy to see how they could run the table. They still have two games left against the AFC South (against the Texans and Titans, who, at 3-5 and 1-6, respectively, could still win the division) and an additional three remaining over the NFC East, which really isn’t good either.
The schedule, combined with the talent on the roster, are the main ingredients for an opportunity at an undefeated season. The team faced only six playoff teams in 2007, and do you know, on their previously played and remaining 2015 schedule, how many current playoff teams are on it? Six. Serendipity, but really, just an easy schedule. But more than anything, this is an amazing team that, through all of the drama and craziness surrounding them over Deflategate, stayed the course and reached a new level of play that they had never attained previously.
And that’s the most astounding part of what the Patriots have done in 2015. With all of the losses, all of the insanity around the team over the summer, all of the challenges that come with trying to repeat as Super Bowl Champion. Through all of it, absolutely nothing seems to matter when it comes to their success. Nothing.
With the week-to-week nature of the NFL and the fact that this edition of the Patriots isn’t as dominant as the one from 2007, the team probably won’t go undefeated. But everything is in line for them to do so, and if they play the way they are capable of playing week in and week out, they’ll probably be able to pull it off.
Which means that it’s more than okay to start discussing the possibility of it now.
With the NBA season nearing its onset, the time has once again arrived for pundits, fans, and general “basketball people” to start looking at the year ahead and/or making predictions. The season, as usual, has been rather highly anticipated, and the team that will be raising the Larry O’Brien trophy in June is anyone’s guess. We’ll try to take that guess (and probably fail miserably) as well as look at the other teams in the NBA.
One other note: we go into this post with heavy hearts, as Timberwolves head coach Flip Saunders passed away Sunday at the far-too-young age of 60. Rest in peace, Flip.
It is with extreme sadness to report that today Phil “Flip” Saunders has passed away at age 60. pic.twitter.com/l8tthTocAt
Now, with that being said and with Flip in mind, let’s get on with our preview. We’ll alternate between conferences and start from the bottom. You’ll see what I’m talking about when we start. Here it is, a preview of the 2015 NBA season.
Western Conference, #15: Portland Trail Blazers:
Take a look at the above image of the 2014-15 starting lineup for Terry Stotts’ Blazers. There is something special about the guy in the middle, and it’s more than you think. Yes, he’s Damian Lillard, he’s one of the best point guards in the game, and he hits killer buzzer-beaters to end playoff series.
And the other thing that is special about him, at least this season? He’s the only guy in the picture left on the team. All the other guys? Moved on to other teams (Wes Matthews, Robin Lopez, LaMarcus Aldridge) or were traded (Nic Batum). It’s been a weird offseason in Portland, but the lineup has basically been flipped on its head because of it. Can C.J. McCollum, Gerald Henderson, Al-Farouq Aminu, Mason Plumlee and others replace what was lost over the summer? It remains to be seen, but it’s also very unlikely. A rebuilding year awaits the Portland Trail Blazers.
Record: 20-62
Eastern Conference, #15: Philadelphia 76ers
The 76ers made a safe and solid pick at #3 overall in this year’s draft, taking Duke’s Jahlil Okafor. They still didn’t have any guards, but you could bank on them taking some guards in the second round, one in which they had five picks (#35, 37, #47, #58, #60). Going in, you thought you would see the Sixers go small. Instead, as a 76er fan, you were left needing to #TrustTheProcess.
GM Sam Hinkie decided to take big man (Willy Hernangomez) after big man (Richaun Holmes) after big man (Arturas Gudiatis) after big man (Luka Mitrovic). Wedged in the middle of all of these bigs was a wing (North Carolina’s J.P. Tokoto), but, again, none of the picks were guards.
The team went out and acquired Kendall Marshall and Sauce Castillo Nik Stauskas in deals (Stauskas was acquired from Sacramento for the rights to Gudiatis and Mitrovic). This team is, to be kind, a work in progress with a truckload of big men.
How that turns out in the future is anyone’s guess, but the 76ers, as Fran Fraschilla once said, “are two years away from being two years away, and then we’ll see”.
Record: 18-64
Western Conference, #14: Sacramento Kings
This team is actually very difficult to handicap. The addition of Rajon Rondo should, at least theoretically, help the Kings. On the other hand, Rondo hurt both of the teams he played for last year, and the relationship between DeMarcus Cousins and coach George Karl probably isn’t getting better anytime soon.
A starting lineup with them, Ben McLemore, Willie Cauley-Stein and Rudy Gay carries plenty of intrigue. However, Cauley-Stein just doesn’t space the floor, which won’t help Cousins in getting room inside. Gay and McLemore are the only two players in the starting five that can knock down 3s with any consistency, and even with the Kings’ inability to get points from behind the arc, they still ranked 28th in defense last year. That’s not likely to change all that much, even with Cauley-Stein starting at power forward.
Record: 23-59
Eastern Conference, #14: New York Knicks
The Knicks actually made some, dare I say, good moves this offseason. Arron Afflalo and Robin Lopez were solid additions, ones that should improve the Knicks’ 17-65 outcome from a season ago. Their first-round draft pick of Kristaps Porzingis was one that I simply disagreed with (another example of being two years away from being two years away, and then seeing).
But the Knicks aren’t going to be a playoff team this season, and I think we can all agree on that. How’s it goink, Phil?
Record: 21-61
Western Conference, #13: Minnesota Timberwolves
The Timberwolves also had a very solid and respectable offseason. It started with the good pick of Karl-Anthony Towns at #1 overall and ended with the acquisitions of veterans Tayshaun Prince and Andre Miller. The team also drafted Duke point guard Tyus Jones, who is, in my opinion, one of the most underrated players in this year’s draft.
They will obviously have to sort out their front office and head coaching situation in light of recent events, but this year should be better in Minnesota. They’re still a ways away from playoff contention (and surprisingly old in certain places on the roster), but they’ll be making incremental improvement in the 2015-16 season.
Record: 24-58
Eastern Conference, #13: Detroit Pistons
Note: that’s a personal tribute to one of the most underrated teams of all time, the late 80s-early 90s Bad Boys. They’re also one of my favorite teams ever, one of the most interesting assemblages of characters the NBA has ever seen. They were simply incredible. Anyway….
This year’s Pistons are not the Bad Boys, and they aren’t coming even close to winning an NBA title. They had a real chance to be a playoff team next year until Brandon Jennings went down on January 25. After releasing Josh Smith, head coach and president of basketball operations Stan Van Gundy saw things pick up with a smaller, faster-paced lineup. But Greg Monroe and Caron Butler, two key pieces of the brief midseason turnaround last season, are gone, and replaced by lesser talent.
The team did an excellent job by drafting Arizona’s Stanley Johnson with the #8 overall pick, and he’ll be starting the season backing up Marcus Morris (but he will be starting in due time). But in the aftermath of Jennings’ catastrophic injury and subsequent fight for playing time with volume shooter Reggie Jackson, the Pistons won’t be as competitive this time around.
Record: 24-58
Western Conference, #12: Los Angeles Lakers
With their #2 overall pick, the Los Angeles Lakers picked the best player in the draft (and I really do believe that) in Ohio State point guard D’Angelo Russell. They were also able to sign center Roy Hibbert in free agency and are getting Kobe Bryant and Julius Randle back from injury. And with Bryant and Randle, there is major uncertainty.
Randle suffered a broken right tibia on last year’s opening night and was forced to miss the entire season. Bryant, after suffering various leg injuries, particularly to his Achilles, in 2013, missed the second half of last season after tearing his right rotator cuff. Will he return to form, or will we see more of the Kobe we saw at the beginning of last season; inefficient, overworked, and turning the ball over? Or will we see pre-injury Kobe? I’m guessing the former, and that’s why I’m putting the Lakers right here.
Record: 27-55
Eastern Conference, #12: Indiana Pacers
The Pacers, much like the Lakers, are also decimated, but for very different reasons. Gone are…. well, who isn’t gone? Anyway, gone are Roy Hibbert, Luis Scola, and David West, the key cogs that comprised the Pacers’ dangerous inside game in recent years. Paul George is back and will be playing power forward, and judging by this video, I’d say he looks pretty good:
But George’s skill set really isn’t geared toward playing power forward, and he’s never done it for an extensive period of time in his career. It will be interesting to see how he fares, but the Pacers offseason losses will sink them in 2015-16.
Record: 31-51
Western Conference, #11: Phoenix Suns
The Phoenix Suns were 29-25 before the trade deadline last season. While they were a fringe playoff team, you would think they wouldn’t make any moves to blow anything up or potentially hurt their chances to make their first playoffs since 2010. Well, they did just the opposite, and while the acquisition of Brandon Knight was made to help the team go to the playoffs, the price they paid to get him (Goran Dragic) and the loss of Isaiah Thomas in a separate deal was simply too much to overcome.
The Suns have basically the same team this season, with one exception: the addition of Tyson Chandler. While he should be able to help the team in other areas, he may not be too great of a fit for the team’s up-and-down style, which may be difference between contending for a playoff spot or not. And the Suns won’t compete for a playoff spot.
Record: 35-47
Eastern Conference, #11: Brooklyn Nets
You’re probably thinking, “The Nets were a playoff team last year and all they lost was Deron Williams, so how could they be worse?”. Well, think about it from a different perspective.
The Nets had a -2.9 point per game differential a year ago, and no other 2014-15 playoff team had a differential worse than +0.2. So, in essence, the Nets sold their soul to the devil for a playoff spot last season (hyperbolic, yes, but you cant count on consistently getting outscored and still making the playoffs). While Williams was a massive disappointment in a Nets uniform, I don’t see Jarrett Jack being all that much better. Oh, and there’s also Iso Joe Johnson, so the ball won’t magically be whipping around the floor while the Nets are on offense.
They didn’t get better over the summer, and some of the teams behind them did. The Nets fall short of the playoffs.
Record: 32-50
Western Conference, #10: Denver Nuggets
So here’s the thing: I really like new head coach Mike Malone. I like him and the fit with the Nuggets so much that I think the team will appreciably improve this season, maybe even to briefly compete for a playoff spot. The team’s offseason moves were also solid, but Malone was the biggest acquisition the team made all summer.
Malone’s up-tempo offensive style and his emphasis on defense should be the ingredients to let out the “Manimal”, Kenneth Faried. Faried had a slightly disappointing fourth season in the league, and some speculated that he and others gave up on former head coach Brian Shaw. But an inspired Faried is a scary Faried. Also new is rookie point guard Emmanuel Mudiay, and he replaces Ty Lawson, who was traded to the Rockets and has his own problems.
This team has holes to fill, but it should overachieve with Malone now at the helm.
Record: 38-44
Eastern Conference, #10: Charlotte Hornets
Kemba Walker, as usual, will have to run everything with the Charlotte Hornets this season. However, it’s going to be that much harder for Walker and the Hornets to succeed this year, as starting small forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist went down in the preseason with a torn right labrum. He may very well miss the entire season, which is simply too much for the Hornets to handle.
Even with the acquisition of Jeremy Lin in the offseason (which is significant, with Kidd-Gilchrist’s injury) and Nicolas Batum, Kidd-Gilchrist’s injury is enough for me to drop the Hornets out of the playoffs. His effort and energy on defense are impossible to replace and will be dearly missed without his presence in the lineup. The Hornets will struggle in the East once again in 2015-16.
Record: 36-46
Western Conference, #9: Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks had a really, really awful summer. They had signed (at least thought they signed) DeAndre Jordan away from the Clippers and Wesley Matthews away from Portland. Matthews stayed, but Jordan changed his mind at the last minute, going back to L.A. after being barricaded in his own house by Clipper brass and players. And you thought I was joking:
The team was, however, able to sign Zaza Pachulia from the Bucks, and at least some of the numbers show that he might be better than Chandler. But Matthews is a gigantic risk coming off his Achilles injury near the end of last season. The Mavericks, as a team, are also a risk, and as of now, I can’t put them in the playoffs.
Record: 42-40
Eastern Conference, #9: Orlando Magic
The 2015-16 Orlando Magic will, like the Nuggets in the West, be invigorated by a new head coach. Scott Skiles was hired as the team’s new head coach on May 29, replacing the ineffective Jacque Vaughn. Vaughn was simply unable to take advantage of the Magic’s young talent, compiling a 58-158 record (.269 winning percentage) in over two seasons as the head coach.
This year, however, Skiles will properly take advantage of the talent of young guns Elfrid Payton, Victor Oladipo, Tobias Harris, Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic (that’s Orlando’s starting lineup). The Magic will be a surprise this season, mainly because their best players will finally be correctly utilized.
Record: 38-44
Western Conference, #8: Utah Jazz
The Jazz, believe it or not, are one of the league’s most rapidly improving squads. They improved by 13 wins from 2013-14 to last season, and I would foresee another improvement of a similar scope this season. In a not-so-little-known stat, Utah led the league in points per game allowed last season (94.9) and were second in opponent field goals made per game (35.8). The best part of all this?
The Jazz are bringing everyone back. They get starting shooting guard Alec Burks back and fully healthy, which is big as he and Trey Burke form the effective 1-2 punch in the backcourt. However, the team does its real business in the paint, with Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert. Gobert, who had his breakout season last year and led the team in win shares, won the starting job for good after Enes Kanter was traded to Oklahoma City at the trade deadline. Gordon Hayward is also back, as he is an integral part of Utah’s plan and one of the most perpetually underrated wing players in the game.
Utah will finally break out and get back to the playoffs in 2015-16.
Record: 46-36
Eastern Conference, #8: Boston Celtics
Last year’s Boston Celtics orchestrated one of the most stunning runs to a playoff berth one could possibly imagine. Once they got to the playoffs, of course, they were run off the floor by the LeBron James-led Cavaliers; while the series ended in four games, all of the games were competitive and the C’s showed an edge that was an embodiment of their head coach, Brad Stevens.
Can they repeat that performance this year and make it back to the playoffs? Absolutely. They have last year’s core back for another year (minus Brandon Bass, plus Amir Johnson and David Lee) and, of course, they have Stevens. It may not be as easy this time in a more competitive East, but the Celtics will be back for more late April basketball.
Record: 40-42
Western Conference, #7: New Orleans Pelicans
Word out of New Orleans is that Anthony Davis is developing a three-point jump shot, and if that is true, the rest of the league should be afraid. Very afraid.
Where the Pellies’ improvement gets stinted, however, is out of Davis’ control. Their inability to take a giant leap forward this season instead of just a step lies in the fragility of their two starting guards, Jrue Holiday and Eric Gordon. Gordon played in 61 games a season ago but has only reached that total in three other seasons in his career, which started in 2008. Holiday has not played in more than half of a season in his two years in New Orleans; he has been riddled with leg injuries since he arrived from Philadelphia. These are the only things holding the Pelicans back from being serious Western conference contenders, and I’m totally serious when I say that.
Record: 49-33
Eastern Conference, #7: Washington Wizards
The biggest loss of the Wizards’ offseason occurred when Paul Pierce decided to call game on his tenure with the team and sign with the Clippers. Other than Pierce’s departure, the Wizards are largely the same team from last season, and that may be something of an issue come playoff time (or in the regular season, for that matter).
For example, when John Wall was injured in last year’s playoffs, the team simply struggled to put up points against the Hawks’ defense. This lack of scoring ability was a need that was left largely unaddressed during the offseason, and the loss of Pierce can’t help in this regard. Also, another concern for the Wizards needs to be the lack of an offensive game from Pierce’s replacement, Otto Porter, Jr. While his three-point and field goal percentages improved in his second season, how will he fare with increased offensive responsibility? It’s a question worth asking, one the Wizards may be unable to answer.
Record: 43-39
Western Conference, #6: Los Angeles Clippers
That’s a lot of people, and a lot for coach/president of basketball operations Doc Rivers to figure out. It would be difficult enough for the Clippers to figure out how to rebound from last year’s debacle against the Rockets in which they were leading 3-1 and somehow still lost the series. The additions of Paul Pierce, Josh Smith, Lance Stephenson and others should theoretically help the Clips this year. Theoretically.
But there are more weapons at the Clippers’ disposal this year, and my dropping them to sixth doesn’t necessarily mean that they are worse than they were a season ago. But the addition of so many different players, many who are multi-year veterans, presents a unique challenge to Rivers, one that he will have to solve pretty soon if the Clippers are to make a run deep into the playoffs and beyond.
Record: 51-31
Eastern Conference, #6: Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks improved their record by 26 wins from 2013-14 to 2014-15. Much of that rise has to do with the coaching change, albeit terribly handled, from Larry Drew to Jason Kidd in the summer of 2014. Another thing that has to do with the rise of the Bucks is the simultaneous rise of budding superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo (yes, I was able to spell it correctly), as his flourishing all-around game expedited the team’s rebuilding process. This success also allowed them to spend on power forward Greg Monroe in free agency.
Monroe comes from the Pistons, and can play power forward or center. He is more likely to play center as the Bucks can put Antetokounmpo at power forward when Jabari Parker returns from injury (yes, I think that will happen; Khris Middleton has to play and the Greek Freak can play anywhere). However, it’s no secret that Monroe can’t play defense, so he doesn’t quite fit the Bucks’ system; this is why I don’t have them improving on an impressive campaign a season ago.
Record: 45-37
Western Conference, #5: Houston Rockets
The Rockets had a dream season a year ago, as they were the #2 seed in the west and advanced to the Western Conference Finals before ultimately being knocked out in five games by the Golden State Warriors. They bring almost everyone back from that team, with the exception of trade deadline acquisition Josh Smith.
This is another example of a team that isn’t any worse than a season ago. But the Rockets will drop mainly because they aren’t any better; also, they were one loss away from dropping from second to sixth in the West last season, so maybe their dream season wasn’t so much of a dream season after all.
Record: 52-30
Eastern Conference, #5: Chicago Bulls
The Bulls were vanquished in the Eastern Conference Semifinals a season ago by LeBron James’ Cavaliers, and their championship window may very well be closing. Pau Gasol is in the second year of a three year contract, and while he’s still really good, he’s starting to ever so slightly decline. Joakim Noah has been banged up over the last year or so, so much so that he’ll be starting the season on the Bulls’ bench, losing his starting spot in favor of Nikola Mirotic.
And, of course, there’s the big question: Can Derrick Rose stay healthy? Jimmy Butler is the best player on the team (another thing I really do believe) but Rose is the most important Bull. Under new coach Fred Hoiberg, Rose could thrive, but he’ll have to stay healthy to do so. Because of this uncertainty, picking the Bulls to go deep into the playoffs is essentially a ginormous crapshoot, a risk that probably isn’t worth taking.
Record: 48-34
Western Conference, #4: Memphis Grizzlies
The Memphis Grizzlies are probably the best NBA team that you don’t see coming. You probably should be aware of their consistent presence (they’ve made the playoffs in each of the last five seasons) but the way they win- post play, rebounding, slow pace…. yeah, that doesn’t exactly lend itself to getting lots of attention. The offseason they had should also make you buy in to their chances in 2015-16.
In addition to already having veteran Vince Carter on what was a solid second unit a year ago, the team acquired Matt Barnes from the Hornets for basically… nothing. Barnes joins Carter and Beno Udrih as the centerpieces of the Grizz bench, and while the team lost Kosta Koufos in free agency, they signed Brandan Wright over the summer to replace him.
Mike Conley is the most underrated point guard in basketball. Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol will take care of their business in the paint. The only question mark lies with starting small forward Jeff Green, but in his second year in Memphis, and with more time to acclimate to his surroundings, I’ll guess that he does just fine. The Grizz will continue to impress and/or surprise in the 2015-16 season.
Record: 54-28
Eastern Conference, #4: Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks were the NBA’s main surprise story a year ago, winning 60 games and earning the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. They advanced all the way to the Conference Finals and were then promptly destroyed by the LeBron Jameses Cavaliers. Still, the season was likely the most successful in franchise history and there should be enough for the team to build off for this season.
But not everyone is back. DeMarre Carroll left in free agency to sign with the Raptors (more on them later), and do not underestimate the importance of that loss. Carroll had a solid seven win shares last season, and while that was fifth on the team, that type of output is difficult to replace. He also led the team in energy, particularly on defense. Kent Bazemore and Tim Hardaway, Jr. will attempt to replace him, but it won’t be easy. Expect a small step back for the Hawks this season.
Record: 51-31
Western Conference, #3: Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder may very well be the deepest team in the NBA this season. Unfortunately, they may need that depth if superstar Kevin Durant is injury-riddled again this season. There are reasonably two possibilities for the Thunder this season, and they both hinge on KD.
If Durant can somehow stay healthy, the Thunder may be the best team in basketball. Russell Westbrook had a near-MVP-caliber season a year ago and can take over some of the load, which would give Durant some rest, which could help him for the rest of the season and beyond. Without a healthy KD, the Thunder are probably a lower-end playoff team, and not very dangerous come playoff time, either. Somewhere in between is where I am putting them, mainly because they are just too big of a risk to put in the top two in the stacked West.
Additionally, new head coach Billy Donovan is a wild card. Keep an eye on how he does in year one with Oklahoma City.
Record: 55-27
Eastern Conference, #3: Miami Heat
The Miami Heat acquired guard Goran Dragic from the Suns in last year’s trade deadline in hopes of making something of a run through the Eastern Conference in last year’s playoffs. Of course, Chris Bosh’s ill-fated blood clots greatly harmed those chances, and the Heat wouldn’t make the playoffs at all. This season, they have their post-trade deadline cast for a whole season, and the only cap on their potential is the health of Bosh and Dwyane Wade.
If the starting lineup of Dragic, Bosh, Wade, Luol Deng and breakout center Hassan Whiteside can put it together for a full season (or close to it; Wade will sit out some nights with his continued knee troubles), then the Heat are probably the biggest threat to the Cavs in the East. If not, they’re a back-end playoff team. I’ll bet on the former.
Record: 55-27
Western Conference, #2: Golden State Warriors
The Golden State Warriors’ mindset will simply be different this season. It usually is for teams coming off the heels of winning a championship. There’s nothing wrong with that, and while there have been plenty of recent repeat champions, especially in the NBA, repeating is difficult to nearly impossible. Being in the hyper-competitive Western Conference won’t make things easier.
The Warriors do basically bring everyone back this season (except David Lee), but the biggest loss may be Steve Kerr; there is no timetable for his return after offseason back surgery. Stephen Curry is still Stephen Curry, and he may have a similar season to his overly impressive 2014-15 campaign. But repeating is such a difficult task, and the Warriors won’t quite be the next team to do it.
Record: 56-26
Eastern Conference, #2: Toronto Raptors
The Raptors have lost first-round playoff series in back-to-back seasons, and in both of those series, they lost to Paul Pierce. The good news? Pierce is now in L.A., which means Toronto probably won’t lose to him in this year’s playoffs, barring a Finals matchup. The bad news? They still have to clear the hump of winning a playoff series.
But the same team returns once more with the same challenge. And they will finally succeed in this challenge this season. In the offseason, the team signed DeMarre Carroll, Cory Joseph and Luis Scola. Another year of playoff experience should help the team (finally) begin to win consistently in April and May, which should be huge as the team goes forward. The Raptors take a big leap forward this season. They the North.
Oh, and did I mention that this is Kyle Lowry now?
The 2015-16 San Antonio Spurs will be downright scary, but not after they suffer some necessary growing pains. Yes, the team is old and its players are probably done growing, but these growing pains come from the free agent addition of LaMarcus Aldridge, which, while it will help the team long-term, will require some adjustments from the team early on.
Other than the loss of Marco Belinelli, basically everyone is back at coach Gregg Popovich’s disposal. The team also added David West in the offseason for basically nothing and he will provide instant value off the bench. The usual faces (Parker, Duncan, Ginobili, Danny Green) are also back. To me, the Spurs will be the best team in the West, even with an early-season adjustment period.
Record: 60-22
Eastern Conference, #1: Cleveland Cavaliers
This is pretty obvious. The Cleveland Cavaliers are easily the best team in the East once again this season, and they won’t have to deal with any acclimation process, as the core of the team remains largely unchanged. The only thing that will hold back the Cavs to start in 2015-16 will be the loss of Kyrie Irving, who still has no timetable for the knee injury he suffered in last year’s playoffs. Even without Irving, GM David Griffin went out and got serviceable, solid point guard Mo Williams; this addition should help the team weather the storm without Uncle Drew.
And you know the rest. Kevin Love returns from his shoulder injury in the first round of last year’s playoffs, and while the team played well with Tristan Thompson replacing him, Love is simply a better basketball player. But Thompson is back in a prominent bench role, too. So not much has changed, and neither has the Cavs’ status as kings of the Eastern Conference.
Record: 59-23
Finally, here are some of my predictions for the NBA award winners for the upcoming season. My final prediction will be that of the NBA Finals.
Rookie of the Year: D’Angelo Russell, Lakers
Coach of the Year: Mike Malone, Denver Nuggets
MVP: Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
Defensive Player of the Year: Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors
My Conference Finals Predictions:
East: Cavaliers over Heat
West: Spurs over Thunder
And finally, my NBA Finals prediction, which only has a 95% chance of being wrong:
This probably won’t be a terribly long article; the NFC East doesn’t really deserve all that much of our time.
Currently, predicting the winner of the NFC East is essentially a week-to-week proposition. Last week and the three weeks before that, one would have to go with the unimpressive New York Giants, who were coming off a last-minute 30-27 victory over the hapless San Francisco 49ers. For the first week or two of the season, the clear-cut favorite was the Dallas Cowboys; of course, as the NFL goes, centerpieces Dez Bryant and Tony Romo went down, each for several weeks. Since Romo sustained a collarbone injury in week 2 against the Eagles, the Cowboys haven’t won; in fact, they descended deeper into quarterback purgatory, as Brandon Weeden’s struggles necessitated a change to newly-acquired backup quarterback Matt Cassel.
The aforementioned Giants, who are likely still the best team in the division, could easily be 5-1 as we discuss this subject right now. Obviously, critical clock management failures against Dallas and Atlanta sunk them in their first two games; without these shortcomings, we would definitely be talking about the Giants in the same breath as the best teams in the NFL right now, even though we really shouldn’t fall into this trap.
As for the Philadelphia Eagles, no words can actually describe what they have done in the opening six weeks. In the first two weeks of the season, they lost 26-24 to the Falcons and 20-10 to Dallas; in six out of the eight quarters of those games, they were absolutely nuked, getting outscored 40-13 with the exception of the second half of the Atlanta game. After that, save for a loss to Washington in week 4, they’ve won every single game. But they’re still a mess; prized running back acquisition DeMarco Murray has been the second best running back…. on his own team. New quarterback Sam Bradford has thrown as many touchdowns as interceptions (nine each). The way the Eangles have won is clearly an unsustainable way to win games in the National Football League.
Lost in this whole mess, unbelievably, are the oft-discussed Washington Redskins. They also made a quarterback change going into the season, tabbing Kirk Cousins to depose incumbent quarterback Robert Griffin III. Cousins has also played very poorly, throwing for just six touchdowns and eight picks. While the team is at a respectable 2-4 with two losses being decided by a touchdown each, they’re likely going nowhere… again.
The Eagles, in case you were wondering, somehow, some way, lead the NFC East. They’re 3-3 (and a really bad 3-3 at that) with wins against the Giants, Jets and Saints. While the wins against the Giants and Jets are technically good, they played both of those teams on “trap weeks”; meaning, those teams didn’t necessarily play their best games against Philly. They have won two in a row, which has been critical after the loss to the Redskins dropped them to 1-3.
What are we to take away from this? Nothing, really. The division is still terrible, and we’re only six games into the season. Somehow, this division is so terrible that it may actually rival the futility of the AFC South, which has the Texans, Jaguars, and Titans. That’s saying something really significant. Then again, no teams in that division have positive point differentials, and the East has two teams of this kind (Giants and Eagles).
Bleacher Report’s Mike Tanier addressed the subject I am writing about yesterday:
“A win’s a win,” Sam Bradford said after the game. “We’re taking things week by week, and our goal was to get out of here with a win, and that’s what we did tonight.”
The first-place Eagles still talk like a team in crisis mode, even after back-to-back lopsided victories. And no wonder: They are just two weeks removed from speculation that their head coach would take the first train out of Philly headed for Attractive College Opportunity to Be Determined Later. And their offense still doesn’t really have its act together.
Futility comes in all shapes and sizes, but this example of futility just feels special. This division was actually supposed to be interesting going into the season, but injury and underachievement have forced it into easily becoming the worst division in at least the NFC.
Like the NFC South a year ago, this division really will be won by an 8-8 squad. The best team in this division is probably still the Giants; even though the Eagles, and particularly their defense, have looked greatly improved recently, they still have many problems to sort out. If they don’t figure out these problems quickly, it will probably be difficult for them to stay in playoff contention, even in this division.
Even in this division, one that is so remarkably terrible.
This year’s MLB Division Series were some of the most competitive in recent memory. Three went to the maximum five games and one went to four games; there were no sweeps. Perhaps most remarkable about the first round’s results, however, are the teams that are left remaining and their histories in the playoffs (or lack thereof); the four teams remaining (Blue Jays, Royals, Cubs, Mets) have a grand total of seven World Series titles between them, and the most recent championship from any one of those teams came when the Blue Jays went back to back in 1992 and 1993. Joe Carter hit this walk-off home run in game 6 of the ’93 Fall Classic to secure the Jays’ second straight title.
Anyhow, those are, remarkably, baseball’s final four in 2015.
Below will be my predictions for both League Championship Series. I will break down each team’s chances of winning their respective series. I will limit the predictions to just the LCS and will not expand them to my hypothetical World Series; that might be a separate article once we reach that point.
Now, without further ado, let’s get things going and start by breaking down the ALCS.
ALCS: Blue Jays vs. Royals
As you can probably tell by the above photo, the Kansas City Royals and Toronto Blue Jays really don’t like each other. They had a fun little bench-clearing brawl on August 2, and you can expect the mindsets of both teams to remain unchanged.
While the games may be more tightly legislated by the umpires and more chippy between the lines, the boiling emotions between the two teams really shouldn’t have an actual effect on the games themselves.
So how will those games play out? To start, the Blue Jays led the league in both home runs and runs scored in the regular season. Their two, three, and four hitters (Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion) combined for 120 of the team’s 232 home runs, but home run threats exist throughout the lineup in the forms of Kevin Pillar, Russell Martin, Chris Colabello, and Troy Tulowitzki. The team is the Golden State Warriors of baseball: never out of a game, no matter how out of hand it might seem.
But this is also of importance: they may potentially be playing four games in a stadium that just isn’t conducive to home run hitting. Kauffman Stadium ranks 25th in home runs in ESPN’s park factors, which makes the task of scoring runs off Kansas City’s talented pitching staff, and particularly their lights-out bullpen, that much more difficult. Also, the K’s bigness has to directly benefit the Royals’ offense against a Blue Jay pitching staff that has the fourth lowest K/9 in the league (6.98). The Royals’ lineup, on the other hand, strikes out at the least often rate in baseball (15.9%).
Statistics, and home field advantage, obviously favor the Royals. What favors the Blue Jays is… pure talent. Having a threat at just about every position in the lineup is something that is very difficult to beat, even with the Royals’ own talent and prior experience. Don’t underestimate the Jays’ pitching staff, either, as David Price, Marco Estrada, Marcus Stroman and R.A. Dickey aren’t too bad themselves. The Jays’ bullpen has improved as well, as set-up man Aaron Sanchez and 20-year-old phenom closer Roberto Osuna have both pitched very effectively; Sanchez appeared in every game of the Blue Jays’ five-game ALDS victory over the Texas Rangers.
This is a rather close series, one that I think may be decided by a handful of plays. But, I give a slight advantage to the Blue Jays, mainly based on their talent. Bat flips not withstanding, obviously.
Prediction: Blue Jays in 6
NLCS: Cubs vs. Mets
This series, much like its American League counterpart, is all sorts of interesting. Basically, how this series will be decided really is not rocket science at all: the matchup that will dictate the series will be the Cubs’ young hitting against the Mets’ young pitching. The two teams played seven times in the regular season; the Cubs won all seven games. In fairness, however, all of those games came before the Mets’ wild trade deadline, one that got them Yoenis Cespedes, Kelly Johnson, Tyler Clippard, and Juan Uribe, to name a few.
We know New York will be starting young guns Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, and Steven Matz. We also know that the Cubs will be running out their young hitters, such as Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber and Jorge Soler. They also have MVP candidate Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro (who should receive all the credit on the planet for his second half performance after being moved from shortstop to second base). The reason Castro is playing second base, however, will not be playing.
Addison Russell will be out for the NLCS with a hamstring injury. This may seem like a big blow considering how Russell has played this season, especially defensively. Of course, it really isn’t, if Javy Baez’s brief performance against the Cardinals in the NLDS is any indication. Over two games, Baez went 4-5 with a home run and three RBI. He obviously won’t keep that up, but if he can continue to be productive, the rest of the Cubs’ already potent lineup will benefit from it.
As for the matchup of Cubs pitching versus Met hitting, well, that’s difficult to call as well. The Mets like to hit home runs; even with their early season offensive atrociousness, they still somehow rank eighth in the league in homers. And how will the Cubs counter that, you ask? Simple: Jake Arrieta. Arrieta may win the Cy Young this season and carried the pitching staff when Jon Lester and others struggled. If the Cubs win the series, he’ll be one of the main reasons, most likely, serving as a reminder of just how important pitching is this time of year.
Of course, the Mets have pitching, too. Completely opposite of the Royals’ approach, the Cubbies strike out. And strike out. And strike out some more. Their hitting leads the league in strikeout percentage (24.5%), and the Mets pitching is a solid ninth in K/9 (8.23); it should be mentioned that this number was weighed down by regular starters Jon Niese and Bartolo Colon, both of whom nurse a rather low strikeout rate.
Who wins out? It’s difficult to guess. Both teams have their aces, but I like the Cubs’ lineup just a bit better and, of course, they have Jake Arrieta (and a very good bullpen, by the way). It’s a tough series to call, but I’ll go with the Cubs by a very slight margin.
