The NBA All-Star Break is here, and needless to say, the first half of the season provided us with an array of storylines. The Warriors have gotten off to the best first-half start of all-time (48-4) and need to win 25 of their last 30 games to break the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls’ record of 72 wins in a regular season; additionally, Stephen Curry is the surefire MVP of this season. There’s also the Kobe Bryant retirement tour, which will conclude on April 13 with a home game against the Jazz. Kobe played in his last All-Star Game this Sunday, against two players (Andre Drummond and Anthony Davis) who were four when he played his first in 1998.
However, despite popular opinion, there are other happenings in the NBA besides from Kobe, Curry, and the Warriors. So here are five observations as we head into the second half of the season.
Who, What, Where, When, Kawhi: The Spurs Are Historically Good Too
Photo Credit: Edward A. Ornelas/San Antonio Express-News
The above headline isn’t actually something I came up with: I heard Mark Jackson say it on an ABC telecast of a Spurs game a couple of years back. Anyway, what has made the Spurs historically good this season has been their defense. And yes, the Spurs to date have been a historically great team in NBA history.
This is why: they’ve allowed 91.8 points per game this season. There have been 100 teams, including this year’s Spurs, that have surrendered fewer points on average over a full season (and amazingly, twelve are Gregg Popovich-coached San Antonio teams). Out of those 100 squads, the Spurs have the best winning percentage of all of them (.849). At this rate, they’re on pace for 70 wins, two short of the current record.
If that won’t convince you of San Antonio’s historical greatness, this will: no team in NBA history has ever scored 105 points per game and allowed less than 92. The Spurs would be the first, and they’re on that pace as we speak (scoring 105.0, allowing 91.8). If that isn’t impressive, I don’t know what is, especially in a season like this.
In addition to this, the team has added LaMarcus Aldridge since its last title run. Kawhi Leonard is having the best season of his young career. And there will always be the core of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili. This Spurs team is one of the most historically dominant ever, particularly defensively. This and other reasons is why they can absolutely beat the Warriors come playoff time.
Live on TNT, They’re Flexing: The 6IX Will Be Crazy This May
Photo Credit: Brad Penner/USA Today Sports
Don’t look now, but the Toronto Raptors are within three games of the Cavaliers for first place in the East.
When I wrote my NBA preview just before the season, I thought the Raptors could be the second-best team in the East. The reason why was because of Kyle Lowry, who I thought could help the team take the proverbial leap in the Eastern Conference after his offseason weight loss. Sure enough, the point guard is having the best season of his career, helping propel the Raptors to second place in the Eastern Conference and legitimate championship aspirations.
However, the real leap the Raptors have made has come on the defensive side of the ball. After being tied for 18th in points allowed a season ago, general manager Masai Ujiri signed defensive stalwart DeMarre Carroll away from the Hawks. The move hasn’t yet paid dividends for Toronto, as Carroll may miss the rest of the season with a knee injury. So how have the Raptors improved so much on defense?
By playing the game at a very slow pace, that is. Their 93.3 pace is actually faster than last year’s, but their defensive rating has leaped from 25th to 9th. With the improved defense and the slow pace, the Raptors are built perfectly to win in the Eastern Conference playoffs, in which the games are generally lower-scoring and played at a slower tempo. If they reach the Conference Finals, they would most certainly play the Cavaliers, which would be a very difficult matchup. However, they’ll have a better chance of making a run this year because of their defense, their higher seed in the playoffs and the better first-round matchup that results from it.
Also, they likely won’t have to deal with Paul Pierce this time around because he is in the Western Conference. That’s a good thing.
Houston, We Have a Problem: The Rockets Really Are Broken
Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez/USA Today Sports
If you subscribe to the notion that conflict works, you may not want to watch the Houston Rockets anytime soon.
The Rockets are a team in conflict. There is living, breathing proof of this; just ask Jason Terry:
Jason Terry walks through the media room on way to the locker room. “No chemistry with that group. F****** horrible.” #CSNBlazers#ripcity
It is horrible. The team, believe it or not, went to the Western Conference Finals a season ago, and while teams improve and fall off from year to year, the Rockets’ descent has been nothing short of stunning.
Their coach realizes it, too. JB Bickerstaff, Houston’s interim coach after the Kevin McHale firing, had this to say about his team and their chemistry:
We’re broken. It’s that simple. We’re a broken team, and we all need to use this break to figure out how we’re going to impact change. If we don’t want to impact change, then we need to be made aware of that, too, and we’ll go in a different direction.
“We can’t continue to go out and play this way. It’s easy to see it’s a fragmented bunch. You can’t win that way.
The Rockets can’t win this way, and they haven’t. At the All-Star break, they’re 27-28, out of the playoffs, and in no position to make a run at a championship. There’s also the minor problem of Dwight Howard.
The team is reportedly trying to ship him and the remaining two years on his contract to another team. Howard’s name has been linked to discussions with the Hawks and Heat, and a deal with the latter would likely involve Miami center Hassan Whiteside. The Rockets look like they’re trying to finish a deal before Thursday’s trade deadline, and whether they can or not may help define the future of the franchise for years to come.
But with or without Howard, this year’s version of the Houston Rockets are just one thing: broken.
Celtics Climbing Up the Topsails of the East
Photo Credit: Michael Dwyer/Associated Press
Moving on to things that aren’t broken, the Boston Celtics have been one of the NBA’s pleasant surprises this season. Currently, the team is third in the cluster that is the Eastern Conference and in a position to host a playoff series this April. Whether or not they finish there remains to be seen, but even though Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, and Robert Parish aren’t walking through that door, the team has still exceeded expectations without sacrificing their future as of yet.
The reason why is simple: a solid core of young players paired with the coach who, in my opinion, is one of the best in the NBA: Brad Stevens. Under Stevens’ tutelage, the team went from 25 wins in his first season to 40 wins and a playoff appearance a season ago. This season, they’re on pace for 47 wins and the third seed in the East. How did this happen?
Last December, the team traded Rajon Rondo to the Mavericks for Jae Crowder and other assets. Crowder is now the third-leading scorer on the C’s. Then, the team would acquire Kings guard Isaiah Thomas at the trade deadline. With these two players, Avery Bradley, an improved Evan Turner, Kelly Olynyk, and Marcus Smart make up the existing Celtics core. This core could come into play when the team tries to sign a major free agent in the stacked summer of 2016.
But let’s enjoy this season for what it is in Beantown: a renaissance of the Celtics and the emergence of a team that could make some noise come playoff time.
The Cavaliers’ Locker Room Won’t Be Smelling Like Champagne in June
Photo Credit: Nathaniel S. Butler/Getty Images
Time for a real talk. If and when the Cavaliers make the NBA Finals, can they realistically beat the Thunder, Spurs, or Warriors in a seven-game series?
Honestly, my answer would be no. The team they would have the best shot against would obviously be Oklahoma City, but even they would give the Cavaliers a serious run for their money; they could also give Cleveland another Finals loss. And if the Cavaliers end this season with another one of those, then they’ll have to seriously look in the mirror and assess their chances, as they are currently constituted, of ever winning a championship.
This is why I’m pessimistic about the team’s title hopes: they don’t play fast enough. Remember how I talked about the Raptors playing a really slow pace? Well, the Cavaliers play slower than the Raptors. While the Cavs’ pace is remotely near that of the Spurs, their ball movement is not. Also, the pace of the Thunder and Warriors is way faster than Cleveland’s. Translated: any of these teams could run the Cavaliers out of the building on any given night.
So when Steph Curry talks about the visitors’ locker room still smelling like champagne, he has a point. He also could be foreshadowing what the future holds for the away locker room at Quicken Loans Arena when another Western Conference team gets to celebrate an NBA championship.
Because the one team that definitely won’t be celebrating when all is said and done this season is the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Cleveland Cavaliers head coach David Blatt was improbably fired on Friday, despite winning 68% of his games in a year and a half and taking the team to Game 6 of the NBA Finals in his first year on the job. However, General Manager David Griffin made the move on Friday, reportedly not consulting any Cavalier players in the process, and using this reasoning for his decision. These are his words:
I have never seen a locker room not be as connected after wins as they need to be. We’ve only been galvanized when expectations were not high.
This is the General Manager speaking, not any of the players or assistant coaches. And no, despite popular opinion, LeBron James is not the coach or General Manager of the team. So why on this planet would Griffin be making a decision on firing his (very successful) head coach based on things he’s seen in the locker room?
Maybe this is part of the problem, as ESPN’s Brian Windhorst writes. Here, he relays a story from last season about how players really didn’t think all that much of Blatt:
That didn’t stay a secret. James’ and other players’ complaints about Blatt’s style got out quickly. During games, Cavs players complained about the coach to opposing players. Once, while on the road, an injured Cavs player used the home team’s therapy pool and complained about Blatt, with his thoughts literally echoing throughout the home locker room.
First of all, that’s a really low maneuver to resort to; using the home team’s therapy pool just so you could complain about how bad your coach is? Come on, there’s got to be a better way.
But, besides that, the coaching move would seem to make sense. Blatt did not really seem to have the pulse of the locker room, and while it’s easy to look straight to the Cavs’ record and wonder why the organization could make this move, there is more to the decision than wins and losses. Also, the people questioning the change probably did not watch the team play the Warriors and, subsequently, trail by 43 late in the third quarter. Something had to be done, but was this it? If the therapy pool story and the others that Windhorst told in his piece are true, then the right move was made. If the players actually respected Blatt, then maybe the firing is a mistake.
All this being said, we really need to toss locker room dynamics to the side here. This is the problem with the Cavaliers: maybe they just aren’t good enough to win an NBA title. Maybe the issues go far beyond coaching.
Think about it this way: the Cavs are a big fish in a little pond. With all due respect to the Eastern Conference (which has improved mightily from top to bottom this season), the team is easily the best in the East. Realistically, can the Heat, Hawks, or Raptors beat them in a seven-game series if Cleveland is fully healthy? The answer to that question would have to be no.
Remember the analogy about the fish and the pond? Well, the Western Conference is a very big pond, with two enormous fish filling it. The Spurs and Warriors are clearly the two best teams in the NBA right now, and it’s really not close. To make matters worse for Cleveland, they haven’t beaten either team this year; with one more game against San Antonio and having already finished their slate against the Warriors, they are running the serious risk of not getting a win against the two teams they will have to realistically go through to win an NBA championship. That really doesn’t bode well for them if they want to finally bring a title back to the city of Cleveland.
Here is the other problem for the Cavaliers: Kevin Love. If you know what Love accomplished in his early days with the Minnesota Timberwolves and you see what he has been relegated to in Cleveland, you can probably understand why the team may look to move on from him. After the Blatt firing, ESPN’s Cavaliers reporter (yes, really), Dave McMenamin, sent out this cryptic tweet:
According to a team source, Blatt firing means “everyone is in the crosshairs right now.” Pressure only mounts from here for Cavs.
So, let’s see who that could be. The player who hasn’t found his way offensively since arriving in Cleveland. The player who was really great on many really bad teams early in his career. The player who is posting the worst numbers of his career since his second season in the NBA. Add everything up, and you get one result: Kevin Love.
Another player that could be out in Cleveland after Blatt’s firing is center Timofey Mozgov. Rumors have circulated around the league that this is a possibility, and my intuition says that a Mozgov deal would be common sense for the team. Think about it: let’s say the Cavaliers play Golden State in the Finals again like they did last year. With Mozgov at center, how can he defend Draymond Green when the Warriors go to their Uh-Oh lineup? This was the Cavaliers’ main problem after Game 3 of the Finals last season when the Warriors started Andre Iguodala and moved Green to center. Cleveland tried to counter by putting Tristan Thompson at center for most of Game 5. It didn’t quite work.
Do I believe going to Tyronn Lue is the right move for the Cavaliers? Yes, I do, because the players respond to and identify with him more than they did with Blatt. The NBA is a players’ league, and while coaching isn’t always the most important thing in the league, the players’ identification with a head coach’s philosophy and personality is. That being said, why did Griffin stay with Blatt last year, with the team at 19-20 in the middle of January? This year, the team was 30-11 at the time of Blatt’s firing and leading the Eastern Conference.
This is not a question about whether or not the Cavs can come out of the East. That question has been answered. However, Cleveland will have serious issues if they are matched up with the Spurs or Warriors in the Finals, and they may get beaten handily by either team.
Which is a fact that neither David Blatt, David Griffin nor Tyronn Lue can do anything about.
With the NBA season nearing its onset, the time has once again arrived for pundits, fans, and general “basketball people” to start looking at the year ahead and/or making predictions. The season, as usual, has been rather highly anticipated, and the team that will be raising the Larry O’Brien trophy in June is anyone’s guess. We’ll try to take that guess (and probably fail miserably) as well as look at the other teams in the NBA.
One other note: we go into this post with heavy hearts, as Timberwolves head coach Flip Saunders passed away Sunday at the far-too-young age of 60. Rest in peace, Flip.
It is with extreme sadness to report that today Phil “Flip” Saunders has passed away at age 60. pic.twitter.com/l8tthTocAt
Now, with that being said and with Flip in mind, let’s get on with our preview. We’ll alternate between conferences and start from the bottom. You’ll see what I’m talking about when we start. Here it is, a preview of the 2015 NBA season.
Western Conference, #15: Portland Trail Blazers:
Take a look at the above image of the 2014-15 starting lineup for Terry Stotts’ Blazers. There is something special about the guy in the middle, and it’s more than you think. Yes, he’s Damian Lillard, he’s one of the best point guards in the game, and he hits killer buzzer-beaters to end playoff series.
And the other thing that is special about him, at least this season? He’s the only guy in the picture left on the team. All the other guys? Moved on to other teams (Wes Matthews, Robin Lopez, LaMarcus Aldridge) or were traded (Nic Batum). It’s been a weird offseason in Portland, but the lineup has basically been flipped on its head because of it. Can C.J. McCollum, Gerald Henderson, Al-Farouq Aminu, Mason Plumlee and others replace what was lost over the summer? It remains to be seen, but it’s also very unlikely. A rebuilding year awaits the Portland Trail Blazers.
Record: 20-62
Eastern Conference, #15: Philadelphia 76ers
The 76ers made a safe and solid pick at #3 overall in this year’s draft, taking Duke’s Jahlil Okafor. They still didn’t have any guards, but you could bank on them taking some guards in the second round, one in which they had five picks (#35, 37, #47, #58, #60). Going in, you thought you would see the Sixers go small. Instead, as a 76er fan, you were left needing to #TrustTheProcess.
GM Sam Hinkie decided to take big man (Willy Hernangomez) after big man (Richaun Holmes) after big man (Arturas Gudiatis) after big man (Luka Mitrovic). Wedged in the middle of all of these bigs was a wing (North Carolina’s J.P. Tokoto), but, again, none of the picks were guards.
The team went out and acquired Kendall Marshall and Sauce Castillo Nik Stauskas in deals (Stauskas was acquired from Sacramento for the rights to Gudiatis and Mitrovic). This team is, to be kind, a work in progress with a truckload of big men.
How that turns out in the future is anyone’s guess, but the 76ers, as Fran Fraschilla once said, “are two years away from being two years away, and then we’ll see”.
Record: 18-64
Western Conference, #14: Sacramento Kings
This team is actually very difficult to handicap. The addition of Rajon Rondo should, at least theoretically, help the Kings. On the other hand, Rondo hurt both of the teams he played for last year, and the relationship between DeMarcus Cousins and coach George Karl probably isn’t getting better anytime soon.
A starting lineup with them, Ben McLemore, Willie Cauley-Stein and Rudy Gay carries plenty of intrigue. However, Cauley-Stein just doesn’t space the floor, which won’t help Cousins in getting room inside. Gay and McLemore are the only two players in the starting five that can knock down 3s with any consistency, and even with the Kings’ inability to get points from behind the arc, they still ranked 28th in defense last year. That’s not likely to change all that much, even with Cauley-Stein starting at power forward.
Record: 23-59
Eastern Conference, #14: New York Knicks
The Knicks actually made some, dare I say, good moves this offseason. Arron Afflalo and Robin Lopez were solid additions, ones that should improve the Knicks’ 17-65 outcome from a season ago. Their first-round draft pick of Kristaps Porzingis was one that I simply disagreed with (another example of being two years away from being two years away, and then seeing).
But the Knicks aren’t going to be a playoff team this season, and I think we can all agree on that. How’s it goink, Phil?
Record: 21-61
Western Conference, #13: Minnesota Timberwolves
The Timberwolves also had a very solid and respectable offseason. It started with the good pick of Karl-Anthony Towns at #1 overall and ended with the acquisitions of veterans Tayshaun Prince and Andre Miller. The team also drafted Duke point guard Tyus Jones, who is, in my opinion, one of the most underrated players in this year’s draft.
They will obviously have to sort out their front office and head coaching situation in light of recent events, but this year should be better in Minnesota. They’re still a ways away from playoff contention (and surprisingly old in certain places on the roster), but they’ll be making incremental improvement in the 2015-16 season.
Record: 24-58
Eastern Conference, #13: Detroit Pistons
Note: that’s a personal tribute to one of the most underrated teams of all time, the late 80s-early 90s Bad Boys. They’re also one of my favorite teams ever, one of the most interesting assemblages of characters the NBA has ever seen. They were simply incredible. Anyway….
This year’s Pistons are not the Bad Boys, and they aren’t coming even close to winning an NBA title. They had a real chance to be a playoff team next year until Brandon Jennings went down on January 25. After releasing Josh Smith, head coach and president of basketball operations Stan Van Gundy saw things pick up with a smaller, faster-paced lineup. But Greg Monroe and Caron Butler, two key pieces of the brief midseason turnaround last season, are gone, and replaced by lesser talent.
The team did an excellent job by drafting Arizona’s Stanley Johnson with the #8 overall pick, and he’ll be starting the season backing up Marcus Morris (but he will be starting in due time). But in the aftermath of Jennings’ catastrophic injury and subsequent fight for playing time with volume shooter Reggie Jackson, the Pistons won’t be as competitive this time around.
Record: 24-58
Western Conference, #12: Los Angeles Lakers
With their #2 overall pick, the Los Angeles Lakers picked the best player in the draft (and I really do believe that) in Ohio State point guard D’Angelo Russell. They were also able to sign center Roy Hibbert in free agency and are getting Kobe Bryant and Julius Randle back from injury. And with Bryant and Randle, there is major uncertainty.
Randle suffered a broken right tibia on last year’s opening night and was forced to miss the entire season. Bryant, after suffering various leg injuries, particularly to his Achilles, in 2013, missed the second half of last season after tearing his right rotator cuff. Will he return to form, or will we see more of the Kobe we saw at the beginning of last season; inefficient, overworked, and turning the ball over? Or will we see pre-injury Kobe? I’m guessing the former, and that’s why I’m putting the Lakers right here.
Record: 27-55
Eastern Conference, #12: Indiana Pacers
The Pacers, much like the Lakers, are also decimated, but for very different reasons. Gone are…. well, who isn’t gone? Anyway, gone are Roy Hibbert, Luis Scola, and David West, the key cogs that comprised the Pacers’ dangerous inside game in recent years. Paul George is back and will be playing power forward, and judging by this video, I’d say he looks pretty good:
But George’s skill set really isn’t geared toward playing power forward, and he’s never done it for an extensive period of time in his career. It will be interesting to see how he fares, but the Pacers offseason losses will sink them in 2015-16.
Record: 31-51
Western Conference, #11: Phoenix Suns
The Phoenix Suns were 29-25 before the trade deadline last season. While they were a fringe playoff team, you would think they wouldn’t make any moves to blow anything up or potentially hurt their chances to make their first playoffs since 2010. Well, they did just the opposite, and while the acquisition of Brandon Knight was made to help the team go to the playoffs, the price they paid to get him (Goran Dragic) and the loss of Isaiah Thomas in a separate deal was simply too much to overcome.
The Suns have basically the same team this season, with one exception: the addition of Tyson Chandler. While he should be able to help the team in other areas, he may not be too great of a fit for the team’s up-and-down style, which may be difference between contending for a playoff spot or not. And the Suns won’t compete for a playoff spot.
Record: 35-47
Eastern Conference, #11: Brooklyn Nets
You’re probably thinking, “The Nets were a playoff team last year and all they lost was Deron Williams, so how could they be worse?”. Well, think about it from a different perspective.
The Nets had a -2.9 point per game differential a year ago, and no other 2014-15 playoff team had a differential worse than +0.2. So, in essence, the Nets sold their soul to the devil for a playoff spot last season (hyperbolic, yes, but you cant count on consistently getting outscored and still making the playoffs). While Williams was a massive disappointment in a Nets uniform, I don’t see Jarrett Jack being all that much better. Oh, and there’s also Iso Joe Johnson, so the ball won’t magically be whipping around the floor while the Nets are on offense.
They didn’t get better over the summer, and some of the teams behind them did. The Nets fall short of the playoffs.
Record: 32-50
Western Conference, #10: Denver Nuggets
So here’s the thing: I really like new head coach Mike Malone. I like him and the fit with the Nuggets so much that I think the team will appreciably improve this season, maybe even to briefly compete for a playoff spot. The team’s offseason moves were also solid, but Malone was the biggest acquisition the team made all summer.
Malone’s up-tempo offensive style and his emphasis on defense should be the ingredients to let out the “Manimal”, Kenneth Faried. Faried had a slightly disappointing fourth season in the league, and some speculated that he and others gave up on former head coach Brian Shaw. But an inspired Faried is a scary Faried. Also new is rookie point guard Emmanuel Mudiay, and he replaces Ty Lawson, who was traded to the Rockets and has his own problems.
This team has holes to fill, but it should overachieve with Malone now at the helm.
Record: 38-44
Eastern Conference, #10: Charlotte Hornets
Kemba Walker, as usual, will have to run everything with the Charlotte Hornets this season. However, it’s going to be that much harder for Walker and the Hornets to succeed this year, as starting small forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist went down in the preseason with a torn right labrum. He may very well miss the entire season, which is simply too much for the Hornets to handle.
Even with the acquisition of Jeremy Lin in the offseason (which is significant, with Kidd-Gilchrist’s injury) and Nicolas Batum, Kidd-Gilchrist’s injury is enough for me to drop the Hornets out of the playoffs. His effort and energy on defense are impossible to replace and will be dearly missed without his presence in the lineup. The Hornets will struggle in the East once again in 2015-16.
Record: 36-46
Western Conference, #9: Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks had a really, really awful summer. They had signed (at least thought they signed) DeAndre Jordan away from the Clippers and Wesley Matthews away from Portland. Matthews stayed, but Jordan changed his mind at the last minute, going back to L.A. after being barricaded in his own house by Clipper brass and players. And you thought I was joking:
The team was, however, able to sign Zaza Pachulia from the Bucks, and at least some of the numbers show that he might be better than Chandler. But Matthews is a gigantic risk coming off his Achilles injury near the end of last season. The Mavericks, as a team, are also a risk, and as of now, I can’t put them in the playoffs.
Record: 42-40
Eastern Conference, #9: Orlando Magic
The 2015-16 Orlando Magic will, like the Nuggets in the West, be invigorated by a new head coach. Scott Skiles was hired as the team’s new head coach on May 29, replacing the ineffective Jacque Vaughn. Vaughn was simply unable to take advantage of the Magic’s young talent, compiling a 58-158 record (.269 winning percentage) in over two seasons as the head coach.
This year, however, Skiles will properly take advantage of the talent of young guns Elfrid Payton, Victor Oladipo, Tobias Harris, Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic (that’s Orlando’s starting lineup). The Magic will be a surprise this season, mainly because their best players will finally be correctly utilized.
Record: 38-44
Western Conference, #8: Utah Jazz
The Jazz, believe it or not, are one of the league’s most rapidly improving squads. They improved by 13 wins from 2013-14 to last season, and I would foresee another improvement of a similar scope this season. In a not-so-little-known stat, Utah led the league in points per game allowed last season (94.9) and were second in opponent field goals made per game (35.8). The best part of all this?
The Jazz are bringing everyone back. They get starting shooting guard Alec Burks back and fully healthy, which is big as he and Trey Burke form the effective 1-2 punch in the backcourt. However, the team does its real business in the paint, with Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert. Gobert, who had his breakout season last year and led the team in win shares, won the starting job for good after Enes Kanter was traded to Oklahoma City at the trade deadline. Gordon Hayward is also back, as he is an integral part of Utah’s plan and one of the most perpetually underrated wing players in the game.
Utah will finally break out and get back to the playoffs in 2015-16.
Record: 46-36
Eastern Conference, #8: Boston Celtics
Last year’s Boston Celtics orchestrated one of the most stunning runs to a playoff berth one could possibly imagine. Once they got to the playoffs, of course, they were run off the floor by the LeBron James-led Cavaliers; while the series ended in four games, all of the games were competitive and the C’s showed an edge that was an embodiment of their head coach, Brad Stevens.
Can they repeat that performance this year and make it back to the playoffs? Absolutely. They have last year’s core back for another year (minus Brandon Bass, plus Amir Johnson and David Lee) and, of course, they have Stevens. It may not be as easy this time in a more competitive East, but the Celtics will be back for more late April basketball.
Record: 40-42
Western Conference, #7: New Orleans Pelicans
Word out of New Orleans is that Anthony Davis is developing a three-point jump shot, and if that is true, the rest of the league should be afraid. Very afraid.
Where the Pellies’ improvement gets stinted, however, is out of Davis’ control. Their inability to take a giant leap forward this season instead of just a step lies in the fragility of their two starting guards, Jrue Holiday and Eric Gordon. Gordon played in 61 games a season ago but has only reached that total in three other seasons in his career, which started in 2008. Holiday has not played in more than half of a season in his two years in New Orleans; he has been riddled with leg injuries since he arrived from Philadelphia. These are the only things holding the Pelicans back from being serious Western conference contenders, and I’m totally serious when I say that.
Record: 49-33
Eastern Conference, #7: Washington Wizards
The biggest loss of the Wizards’ offseason occurred when Paul Pierce decided to call game on his tenure with the team and sign with the Clippers. Other than Pierce’s departure, the Wizards are largely the same team from last season, and that may be something of an issue come playoff time (or in the regular season, for that matter).
For example, when John Wall was injured in last year’s playoffs, the team simply struggled to put up points against the Hawks’ defense. This lack of scoring ability was a need that was left largely unaddressed during the offseason, and the loss of Pierce can’t help in this regard. Also, another concern for the Wizards needs to be the lack of an offensive game from Pierce’s replacement, Otto Porter, Jr. While his three-point and field goal percentages improved in his second season, how will he fare with increased offensive responsibility? It’s a question worth asking, one the Wizards may be unable to answer.
Record: 43-39
Western Conference, #6: Los Angeles Clippers
That’s a lot of people, and a lot for coach/president of basketball operations Doc Rivers to figure out. It would be difficult enough for the Clippers to figure out how to rebound from last year’s debacle against the Rockets in which they were leading 3-1 and somehow still lost the series. The additions of Paul Pierce, Josh Smith, Lance Stephenson and others should theoretically help the Clips this year. Theoretically.
But there are more weapons at the Clippers’ disposal this year, and my dropping them to sixth doesn’t necessarily mean that they are worse than they were a season ago. But the addition of so many different players, many who are multi-year veterans, presents a unique challenge to Rivers, one that he will have to solve pretty soon if the Clippers are to make a run deep into the playoffs and beyond.
Record: 51-31
Eastern Conference, #6: Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks improved their record by 26 wins from 2013-14 to 2014-15. Much of that rise has to do with the coaching change, albeit terribly handled, from Larry Drew to Jason Kidd in the summer of 2014. Another thing that has to do with the rise of the Bucks is the simultaneous rise of budding superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo (yes, I was able to spell it correctly), as his flourishing all-around game expedited the team’s rebuilding process. This success also allowed them to spend on power forward Greg Monroe in free agency.
Monroe comes from the Pistons, and can play power forward or center. He is more likely to play center as the Bucks can put Antetokounmpo at power forward when Jabari Parker returns from injury (yes, I think that will happen; Khris Middleton has to play and the Greek Freak can play anywhere). However, it’s no secret that Monroe can’t play defense, so he doesn’t quite fit the Bucks’ system; this is why I don’t have them improving on an impressive campaign a season ago.
Record: 45-37
Western Conference, #5: Houston Rockets
The Rockets had a dream season a year ago, as they were the #2 seed in the west and advanced to the Western Conference Finals before ultimately being knocked out in five games by the Golden State Warriors. They bring almost everyone back from that team, with the exception of trade deadline acquisition Josh Smith.
This is another example of a team that isn’t any worse than a season ago. But the Rockets will drop mainly because they aren’t any better; also, they were one loss away from dropping from second to sixth in the West last season, so maybe their dream season wasn’t so much of a dream season after all.
Record: 52-30
Eastern Conference, #5: Chicago Bulls
The Bulls were vanquished in the Eastern Conference Semifinals a season ago by LeBron James’ Cavaliers, and their championship window may very well be closing. Pau Gasol is in the second year of a three year contract, and while he’s still really good, he’s starting to ever so slightly decline. Joakim Noah has been banged up over the last year or so, so much so that he’ll be starting the season on the Bulls’ bench, losing his starting spot in favor of Nikola Mirotic.
And, of course, there’s the big question: Can Derrick Rose stay healthy? Jimmy Butler is the best player on the team (another thing I really do believe) but Rose is the most important Bull. Under new coach Fred Hoiberg, Rose could thrive, but he’ll have to stay healthy to do so. Because of this uncertainty, picking the Bulls to go deep into the playoffs is essentially a ginormous crapshoot, a risk that probably isn’t worth taking.
Record: 48-34
Western Conference, #4: Memphis Grizzlies
The Memphis Grizzlies are probably the best NBA team that you don’t see coming. You probably should be aware of their consistent presence (they’ve made the playoffs in each of the last five seasons) but the way they win- post play, rebounding, slow pace…. yeah, that doesn’t exactly lend itself to getting lots of attention. The offseason they had should also make you buy in to their chances in 2015-16.
In addition to already having veteran Vince Carter on what was a solid second unit a year ago, the team acquired Matt Barnes from the Hornets for basically… nothing. Barnes joins Carter and Beno Udrih as the centerpieces of the Grizz bench, and while the team lost Kosta Koufos in free agency, they signed Brandan Wright over the summer to replace him.
Mike Conley is the most underrated point guard in basketball. Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol will take care of their business in the paint. The only question mark lies with starting small forward Jeff Green, but in his second year in Memphis, and with more time to acclimate to his surroundings, I’ll guess that he does just fine. The Grizz will continue to impress and/or surprise in the 2015-16 season.
Record: 54-28
Eastern Conference, #4: Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks were the NBA’s main surprise story a year ago, winning 60 games and earning the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. They advanced all the way to the Conference Finals and were then promptly destroyed by the LeBron Jameses Cavaliers. Still, the season was likely the most successful in franchise history and there should be enough for the team to build off for this season.
But not everyone is back. DeMarre Carroll left in free agency to sign with the Raptors (more on them later), and do not underestimate the importance of that loss. Carroll had a solid seven win shares last season, and while that was fifth on the team, that type of output is difficult to replace. He also led the team in energy, particularly on defense. Kent Bazemore and Tim Hardaway, Jr. will attempt to replace him, but it won’t be easy. Expect a small step back for the Hawks this season.
Record: 51-31
Western Conference, #3: Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder may very well be the deepest team in the NBA this season. Unfortunately, they may need that depth if superstar Kevin Durant is injury-riddled again this season. There are reasonably two possibilities for the Thunder this season, and they both hinge on KD.
If Durant can somehow stay healthy, the Thunder may be the best team in basketball. Russell Westbrook had a near-MVP-caliber season a year ago and can take over some of the load, which would give Durant some rest, which could help him for the rest of the season and beyond. Without a healthy KD, the Thunder are probably a lower-end playoff team, and not very dangerous come playoff time, either. Somewhere in between is where I am putting them, mainly because they are just too big of a risk to put in the top two in the stacked West.
Additionally, new head coach Billy Donovan is a wild card. Keep an eye on how he does in year one with Oklahoma City.
Record: 55-27
Eastern Conference, #3: Miami Heat
The Miami Heat acquired guard Goran Dragic from the Suns in last year’s trade deadline in hopes of making something of a run through the Eastern Conference in last year’s playoffs. Of course, Chris Bosh’s ill-fated blood clots greatly harmed those chances, and the Heat wouldn’t make the playoffs at all. This season, they have their post-trade deadline cast for a whole season, and the only cap on their potential is the health of Bosh and Dwyane Wade.
If the starting lineup of Dragic, Bosh, Wade, Luol Deng and breakout center Hassan Whiteside can put it together for a full season (or close to it; Wade will sit out some nights with his continued knee troubles), then the Heat are probably the biggest threat to the Cavs in the East. If not, they’re a back-end playoff team. I’ll bet on the former.
Record: 55-27
Western Conference, #2: Golden State Warriors
The Golden State Warriors’ mindset will simply be different this season. It usually is for teams coming off the heels of winning a championship. There’s nothing wrong with that, and while there have been plenty of recent repeat champions, especially in the NBA, repeating is difficult to nearly impossible. Being in the hyper-competitive Western Conference won’t make things easier.
The Warriors do basically bring everyone back this season (except David Lee), but the biggest loss may be Steve Kerr; there is no timetable for his return after offseason back surgery. Stephen Curry is still Stephen Curry, and he may have a similar season to his overly impressive 2014-15 campaign. But repeating is such a difficult task, and the Warriors won’t quite be the next team to do it.
Record: 56-26
Eastern Conference, #2: Toronto Raptors
The Raptors have lost first-round playoff series in back-to-back seasons, and in both of those series, they lost to Paul Pierce. The good news? Pierce is now in L.A., which means Toronto probably won’t lose to him in this year’s playoffs, barring a Finals matchup. The bad news? They still have to clear the hump of winning a playoff series.
But the same team returns once more with the same challenge. And they will finally succeed in this challenge this season. In the offseason, the team signed DeMarre Carroll, Cory Joseph and Luis Scola. Another year of playoff experience should help the team (finally) begin to win consistently in April and May, which should be huge as the team goes forward. The Raptors take a big leap forward this season. They the North.
Oh, and did I mention that this is Kyle Lowry now?
The 2015-16 San Antonio Spurs will be downright scary, but not after they suffer some necessary growing pains. Yes, the team is old and its players are probably done growing, but these growing pains come from the free agent addition of LaMarcus Aldridge, which, while it will help the team long-term, will require some adjustments from the team early on.
Other than the loss of Marco Belinelli, basically everyone is back at coach Gregg Popovich’s disposal. The team also added David West in the offseason for basically nothing and he will provide instant value off the bench. The usual faces (Parker, Duncan, Ginobili, Danny Green) are also back. To me, the Spurs will be the best team in the West, even with an early-season adjustment period.
Record: 60-22
Eastern Conference, #1: Cleveland Cavaliers
This is pretty obvious. The Cleveland Cavaliers are easily the best team in the East once again this season, and they won’t have to deal with any acclimation process, as the core of the team remains largely unchanged. The only thing that will hold back the Cavs to start in 2015-16 will be the loss of Kyrie Irving, who still has no timetable for the knee injury he suffered in last year’s playoffs. Even without Irving, GM David Griffin went out and got serviceable, solid point guard Mo Williams; this addition should help the team weather the storm without Uncle Drew.
And you know the rest. Kevin Love returns from his shoulder injury in the first round of last year’s playoffs, and while the team played well with Tristan Thompson replacing him, Love is simply a better basketball player. But Thompson is back in a prominent bench role, too. So not much has changed, and neither has the Cavs’ status as kings of the Eastern Conference.
Record: 59-23
Finally, here are some of my predictions for the NBA award winners for the upcoming season. My final prediction will be that of the NBA Finals.
Rookie of the Year: D’Angelo Russell, Lakers
Coach of the Year: Mike Malone, Denver Nuggets
MVP: Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
Defensive Player of the Year: Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors
My Conference Finals Predictions:
East: Cavaliers over Heat
West: Spurs over Thunder
And finally, my NBA Finals prediction, which only has a 95% chance of being wrong:
The Dallas Mavericks were one of the teams that had very high hopes going into this year’s free agency. They had chances at getting stars like LaMarcus Aldridge, DeAndre Jordan, and others. They lost out on Aldridge when he signed with the Spurs on July 4, but they cushioned the blow with the signing of DeAndre Jordan the day before. However, Jordan began having second thoughts soon after, and on July 8, the day before players could start signing contracts, the race was on to sign him:
✈️
— Chandler Parsons (@ChandlerParsons) July 8, 2015
Jordan eventually re-signed with the Clippers after they stayed at his Houston home until midnight that evening, not letting anyone get in, per Yahoo Sports’ Adrian Wojnarowski:
So far, Clippers able to keep everyone else out of house, including Cuban, agents. Everyone. They’re in four-corners until midnight Eastern. — Adrian Wojnarowski (@WojYahooNBA) July 9, 2015
The sudden loss of Jordan threw the Mavericks into panic mode. They had already signed shooting guard Wesley Matthews from the Trail Blazers, and he is coming off an Achilles injury that forced him to miss the last 22 games of last season. Matthews’s original contract was supposed to be $57 million over four years with Jordan also under contract. However, without Jordan, the Mavericks have decided to push Matthews’ contract to $70 million over four years instead of using the extra money for other acquisitions.
Having already lost last year’s starting center, Tyson Chandler, to the Suns, Dallas did not have any starting centers on the roster and therefore needed to sign one. They promptly traded a second-round pick to the Bucks for Zaza Pachulia, the 31-year old center who is the only active NBA player to hail from the country of Georgia. While it doesn’t seem like Pachulia is a step up from Chandler, last season’s on/off numbers of both players suggest otherwise.
These tables from Basketball-Reference show Pachulia’s on/off numbers last season, with the first row being “on court”, the second row being “off court”, and the third column being the difference:
Now here are Chandler’s on/off numbers from last year. The same rules apply:
As you can see, even though Chandler is a slightly better per game rebounder, the Mavericks did better without him on the floor than the Bucks did without Zaza. There is a direct correlation between their rebound% and their per 36 minutes numbers: Pachulia is better in both.
Turner Sports’ David Aldridge summed up the pick-up in this tweet:
Zaza Pachulia is a very good pickup by Dallas. He was 15th in the league last season in defensive rating (h/t http://t.co/ASfrSD2EoB).
While losing Chandler hurt, and losing Jordan hurt more, Pachulia can at least fill the void left by Chandler. I actually think he may very well be better.
Next, we will revisit the signing of Wesley Matthews. Matthews was having what was possibly the best season of his career last season for the Trail Blazers. While he set a career high for rebounds per game, eFG%, and field goal attempts, his on/off numbers are not as drastic as Pachulia’s:
Obviously, Matthews’ eFG% is higher than the others because of his three-point shooting. However, it is interesting that he only adds 6.8 points per game for his team per 100 possessions, as exemplified by his offensive rating. However, he is a jack-of-all-trades, master of none type of basketball player, a slight positive for his team in all areas of the game. Even though he is coming off a great season with a playoff team, he is also coming off of this. (Warning: Video/Vine may be extremely disturbing for some.)
Now, we will take a look at Monta Ellis’ on/off statistics from last year; Ellis left Dallas to sign of four-year, $44 million deal with the Pacers this offseason. Matthews is replacing him, essentially.
As you can see, while Ellis is more of a positive in eFG% and Turnover%, he is a negative or only a slight positive in all of the other areas. Matthews, theoretically, should be better for the Mavericks than Ellis was. However, history has not been kind to those with Achilles ruptures. See: Elton Brand.
Brand had stayed fairly healthy for the majority of his career, from his being drafted #1 overall in 1999 by the Bulls to the 2006-07 season with the Clippers. However, he ruptured his Achilles tendon in a workout in August 2007, and missed all but eight games in the ’07-’08 season. His averages dropped across the board for the rest of his career. Luckily, he is still playing, but he is in a bench role now for the Atlanta Hawks and is well past the prime of his career.
The point? Brand was 28 on August 3, 2007, when the injury happened. Matthews’ age at the time of his injury, on March 5, 2015? 27. He is only a year younger than Brand was, but the history is simply eerie. The risk of paying him $17.5 million per year, coming off the most dangerous injury a guard could possibly sustain, is enormous. The best ability is availability, and the Mavericks lost it by letting Ellis go.
But rest assured, I have saved the most interesting signing for last: Deron Williams.
He leaves his empty tenure as the franchise face of the Nets as perhaps the single-most forgettable would-be superstar in the history of New York sports.
That isn’t to say he was the least successful, or the most underachieving, or the most disappointing. You can vote him for any of those categories too, if you like, but those are whole separate issues.
Jason Bay was terrible as a Met. But believe me, Bay has not been forgotten, and his tenure in New York still gives Mets fans the bends. Carmelo Anthony might not have delivered on his promise to make the Knicks matter in a way that they mattered in the ’70s and in the ’90s, but you had better believe he is on the tip of every Knicks fan’s tongue, always, and at the forefront of their thoughts.
Williams is different. From the start, it was pretty clear he didn’t want to be here, whether “here” was in New Jersey or Brooklyn. Even when the Nets re-signed him to a $98 million max extension, he came across, instantly, as he if he were doing someone a favor pocketing all that cash.
The Nets moved heaven and earth — actually, worse, they moved an uncountable amount of assets — to surround Williams with the kinds of players he believed were of his status and to his liking, and were rewarded with one playoff series victory and hundreds of nights when Williams’ scowl and his brutal body language hinted he was being held in an unheated hut somewhere near Park Slope against his will.
Williams needs a change of scenery; it’s that simple. Here’s to hoping that he plays better with the Mavericks. With Brooklyn, he was *maybe* half the player that he was with the Jazz in his prime. We don’t need stats to back up this fact: he didn’t care. Will he in a Mavericks uniform? It’s difficult to say, but Williams can’t possibly be worse than Rajon Rondo was with the Mavs last year.
So this has been the Mavericks’ offseason. They went from being a back-end/fringe playoff team last year to, well… a fringe playoff team this year. I think this because it is my best guess: I actually have no clue how they’ll do this year. Matthews will play well when he’s healthy, but history is not on his side with his injury. Pachulia was a great addition and, in my view, a clear upgrade over Tyson Chandler. And Deron Williams is… Deron Williams. I have no idea how he will play or how he will be used, but it will be fun to see how the experiment plays out.
There is a wide, wide range of possibilities for the Mavericks this season. If all goes well and healthy, they could be a four or five seed. But that is so unlikely to happen, and, crazy as it sounds, Pachulia is the surest thing they got this offseason. If I were to guess, I would leave Dallas out of the Playoffs next year.
Why? Just ask Mark Cuban, and substitute “basketball” for “music” in the video.
July 1, tomorrow, marks the beginning of free agency in the NBA. Free agency is typically the signing period that provides the most intrigue during the league year, and it also provides teams the chance to improve on last year’s showing and build a title contender. This year is no different, as there are plenty of key free agents that could be changing teams. This list will be the five most important free agents this year, not necessarily the best ones. So let’s get started, with the five most important NBA free agents this summer.
5. Jimmy Butler
SG/SF
Current team: Chicago Bulls
If you don’t think Butler is important to the Bulls’ future, take from Jordan Campbell of the Fansided blog Da Windy City:
Last season for the Bulls, player 1 averaged 17.7 points per game while shooting 40.5% from the field. Player 1 shot 28% percent from three-point range while also averaging 3.2 rebounds per game and 4.9 assists per game. In the playoffs, player 1 averaged 20.3 points per game while shooting 39% from the field to go along with shooting 34.8 percent from three-point range with 4.8 rebounds per game and 6.5 assists per game.
Player 2, last season for the Bulls, averaged 20 points per game while shooting 46.2% from the field. Player 2 shot 37.8% from three-point range last season while averaging 5.8 rebounds per game and 3.3 assists per game. In the playoffs, player 2 averaged 22.9 points per game while shooting 44.1% from the field to go along with shooting 38.9% from three-point range with 5.6 rebounds per game and 3.2 assists per game.
From last season alone, the stats suggest that player 2 should be “The Guy” going forward for the Bulls’ organization. Player 1 was Derrick Rose while player 2 was Jimmy Butler.
Butler, then, it could be argued, was the most important player on the Bulls’ roster last season. Derrick Rose, at just 26, played only 51 games last season in his return from myriad knee injuries. And even then, D-Rose suffered another tear to his medial meniscus in February. If Rose cannot stay healthy consistently, the Bulls will have to turn to Butler to pick up the load offensively. Butler already takes care of much of the perimeter defense on that end, but his shooting and slashing ability with that defense is what gives him the most value to the Bulls, and those are the reasons why the Bulls need him.
4. Marc Gasol
C
Current team: Memphis Grizzlies
Gasol has been a target of many teams’ interest, namely the Knicks and Lakers. However, according to ESPN’s Marc Stein, Gasol is not interested in leaving Memphis:
Hosting team officials Wednesday in Spain & taking ZERO free agent meetings? Marc Gasol is all but back w/Grizz –> http://t.co/JUIOFJZr8F
Gasol is a player that brings rim protection on defense and versatility on both ends of the floor. It would make sense why he would stay in Memphis: he has a good team, a great situation, and the chance to get more money, as the Grizzlies are allowed to offer him more money and tenure than any other team can. He is worthy of a max deal, and I would not be surprised if the Grizzlies give it to him. It doesn’t look like he’s going anywhere, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t important.
3. Kevin Love
PF/C
Current team: Cleveland Cavaliers
Much has been documented about the relationship between Love and LeBron James, both on Twitter, in the press, and in the locker room. James tweeted this, seemingly randomly, in February:
Stop trying to find a way to FIT-OUT and just FIT-IN. Be apart of something special! Just my thoughts
However, LeBron later admitted that the tweet was aimed straight at Love. Love’s role in the Cavs’ offense has also diminished, as his per game figures in points, field goal attempts, and free throw attempts were the lowest they’ve been since his rookie year. Even though the Cavaliers played just as well, and at times better, without Love in last year’s Playoffs, it looks like they and, most importantly, LeBron, want him back next year:
Love is an incredibly important asset for the Cavaliers and their future. James needs the support offensively as he gets later and later in his career. He isn’t going to be able to score 35-40 points per game in the Finals every year; that’s why he needs Love and Kyrie Irving.
2. LaMarcus Aldridge
PF/C
Current team: Portland Trail Blazers
LaMarcus Aldridge is done as a Portland Trail Blazer and has teams lining up for his services, according to ESPN.com’s Ramona Shelburne:
According to one source, the chance of Aldridge staying with the Portland Trail Blazers is “very unlikely.”
Knicks star Carmelo Anthony has already called Aldridge, sources told ESPN The Magazine’s Chris Broussard.
The Knicks will emphasize that in the Eastern Conference, the road to becoming an All-Star and a playoff team is much less clogged than in the West.
ESPN.com reported in May that the Spurs and Mavericks strongly believe they’ll have a great shot to lure Aldridge back to his home state of Texas. But sources said last week that Aldridge is actually thinking more and more about a free-agent jump to the Lakers.
The Lakers, sources added, firmly believe they will now be in the Aldridge hunt. And there is a rising sentiment, sources said, that the Lakers have edged past the Mavericks on Aldridge’s wish list even though he was a high school star in Dallas.
The Spurs, sources say, continue to be Aldridge’s most likely destination if he goes through with the idea of leaving the Blazers to start anew. The contingent for San Antonio’s pitch to Aldridge is expected to include Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Gregg Popovich, according to multiple media reports.
The Knicks are not getting LaMarcus Aldridge. Their pitch of going to the Eastern Conference to win makes sense, but they take it too far when they insinuate that he is more likely to become an All-Star in the East. Take a guess who started at power forward in this year’s All-Star Game, on the West team.
It was LaMarcus Aldridge.
With the Knicks out of the picture, LMA is very likely to stay in the Western Conference. The Mavericks are an unlikely destination, as they already have an All-Star power forward in Dirk Nowitzki, and while Dirk is nearing the end of his career, putting the two together may not make the most sense.
The Lakers are an obvious contender because they have holes to fill and are looking square in the face at a future without Kobe Bryant. With D’Angelo Russell drafted, Aldridge can come in and, post-Kobe, play a role similar to the one he had in Portland; being set up by a (potential) star point guard. Would he want that, though?
The Spurs are the clear front-runner to land Aldridge, and even though they will have to part ways with Danny Green or Tiago Splitter to get him, the decision is a no-brainer. Tim Duncan is very likely to come back for at least one more season, and the Spurs could use a replacement for him if/when he retires. Aldridge can give Timmy room to work in the post and can space the floor with his jump shooting. The combination of big men makes perfect sense, and the Spurs should do everything in their power to get him, even if Gregg Popovich has an early bedtime.
1. LeBron James
SF/PF
Current team: Cleveland Cavaliers
Duh. This one is self-explanatory. All reports seem to state that James is coming back to the Cavs, even though he may want to be sure that the organization is doing its part to improve the roster. He was carrying an entire team on his shoulders during the NBA Finals; he won’t want to go through that again. He is the best player in the world, and the Cavs will take no chances in re-signing him.
The NBA Draft is taking place next Thursday, June 25, at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, NY. There has been a lot of buzz around this year’s draft for its fast risers (Cameron Payne, Kristaps Porzingis) and its droppers (Justise Winslow, Willie Cauley-Stein, Emmanuel Mudiay). There are other sources of intrigue in the draft that are unique to this year; we’ll explore those later. For now, let’s start with a big board of 50 players that should all be drafted on Thursday.
D’Angelo Russell
Karl-Anthony Towns
Jahlil Okafor
Justise Winslow
Emmanuel Mudiay
Willie Cauley-Stein
Mario Hezonja
Stanley Johnson
Kristaps Porzingis
Myles Turner
Cameron Payne
Trey Lyles
Sam Dekker
Tyus Jones
Bobby Portis
Frank Kaminsky
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
Devin Booker
Kelly Oubre
Montrezl Harrell
Delon Wright
Jerian Grant
R.J. Hunter
Terry Rozier
Justin Anderson
Kevon Looney
Caris LeVert
Cliff Alexander
Kris Dunn
Jonathan Holmes
Jarell Martin
Robert Upshaw
Rashad Vaughn
Christian Wood
Jordan Mickey
Chris McCullough
Nikola Milutinov
Rakeem Christmas
Andrew Harrison
Joseph Young
Dakari Johnson
Michael Qualls
J.P. Tokoto
Olivier Hanlan
Brandon Ashley
Cedi Osman
Pat Connaughton
Michael Frazier II
Ryan Boatright
Larry Nance Jr.
You probably realized that my number one choice is not the common one. Rest assured, I can explain myself. I wrote this article in late May about why Russell is the best player. Another thing that I probably should explain in putting Justise Winslow at 4. Sure, we’ve all seen him take a jump shot and it’s not the prettiest thing in the world, but no one in this draft plays harder than he does. He may get hurt because of it, and his career may very well be shorter for it, but I want a player like him on my team for his competitiveness.
A player you saw that I probably put very low is Kristaps Porzingis. While I think that his upside is fantastic, he needs quite a bit of time to develop, and he needs to go to a system that will allow him to play his unique game and an organization that gives him time to develop. I believe that the rest of the board does well to explain itself, and that parts of it will be explained more fully in the mock draft section of this article.
Now to the fun part: the mock draft. The mock draft will cover the first round in its entirety, and will provide which player is being drafted, who is drafting them, a brief description, and a pro player comparison for each drafted player. Who’s going where? Who’s rising? Who’s falling? I don’t know, but I’ll take my best guess here. So, here goes, my official 2015 NBA Mock Draft.
1. Minnesota Timberwolves
The pick: Karl-Anthony Towns
PF/Kentucky
It’s entirely possible that the Timberwolves could draft Jahlil Okafor at #1. The problem, however, is the contract of starting center Nikola Pekovic which makes Minnesota give up $12 million per year. This, coupled with weakness at the 4 position force the T’Wolves to go with Towns here. It’s not a guarantee, however. Towns is a good jump shooter who can also bang on the glass. His athleticism limits him, but he is still strong enough to back down NBA bigs.
Towns’ defense can improve, but he is a rather mobile big man who can move around, especially in the paint. Here is a block that he had against Mississippi State:
If you thought that dunk attempt was absolutely terrible, you’re right. However, Towns has potential on defense and as a rebounder. His strength will allow him to improve in this regard, and his high basketball IQ can’t hurt either.
Towns has some issues in the post, especially with making moves there. Also, he gets into foul trouble on D and has a tendency to help when he shouldn’t. However, even though he can play very inconsistently at times, he has the potential to be a big-time NBA two-way big man.
Towns Comparison: DERRICK FAVORS
2. Los Angeles Lakers
The Pick: Jahlil Okafor
C/Duke
I don’t have a ton of confidence in this pick materializing. The Lakers basically have three directions they could go in with this pick:
1. Draft for their biggest need (a big man) and take Okafor
2. Draft a running mate for Kobe Bryant in what is likely his final season and take D’Angelo Russell or…
3. Go bananas and draft Kristaps Porzingis
Porzingis is a jump shooting 7-footer out of Latvia that was minimally heralded until recently. However, he has shot up draft boards with his impressive workouts. However, this would be an awful fit for the Lakers because he needs at least 3 years to develop into a consistent, productive player and more likely 5 years to realize his full potential. The Lakers don’t have that much time, and they don’t want a third shoot-first backcourt player; they take Okafor. Okafor, as you may already know, is the top center in the draft. He is excellent at running the floor and can also excel in a halfcourt set. His defense can improve as well, and he can give more effort at that end. He will be a great offensive rebounder in the pro game, and I feel that this is his best skill in the pros. Also, his footwork is something to behold, and this has made him draw comparison to Al Jefferson. Also, he has great strength that manifests itself in absurd finishes like this one:
However, Okafor is a somewhat overrated defender, and his effort is very inconsistent at that end. He is also very slow, and his footwork cannot bail him out of every situation. He is very inexplosive, which does not help his prospects as a good NBA defender. However, he is one of the best all-around players in the draft, and I see the Lakers taking him at #2.
Okafor Comparison: AL JEFFERSON/AL HORFORD
3. Philadelphia 76ers
The Pick: D’Angelo Russell
G/Ohio State
The Philadelphia 76ers unveiled new uniforms a week before the draft. This is often done to show a new direction, a new attitude for a franchise. The team does the best thing to change the attitude and fortunes of the franchise by taking the draft’s best player. Just ask him:
Russell has some issues with his jump shooting and his athleticism, and these will force him to adjust parts of his game at the next level. He also doesn’t have the ability to finish with his right hand right now, and he needs to develop that. However, he is the best player in the draft for his scoring prowess and his high basketball IQ. He also rebounds very well for his position and makes plays others cannot because of his excellent size.
Nonetheless, Philly gets an unselfish, all-around point guard who can, at worst, replace the scoring of the departed Michael Carter-Williams. This team still has a ways to go, which starts and ends with the health of big man Joel Embiid, but this is an awesome start.
Russell Comparison: DAMIAN LILLARD
4. New York Knicks
The Pick: Emmanuel Mudiay
PG/Republic of Congo (played for Guangdong Tigers of Chinese Basketball Association in 2014-15)
Okay, I have no clue where this pick is going. Knowing the recent history of the Knicks, whatever they do still has a good chance of not working out. Look at what the team put on its website on June 1, showing its complete ineptitude from top to bottom:
Yes. That is a real thing. If you click the link, you actually get “highlights”, but you may be better served getting a 404 error. Anyway, there are so many directions this pick could go. One clear option is to trade down in the draft, as they are enthralled with Murray State guard Cameron Payne and enamored with Kentucky forward Trey Lyles too. They see both as logical fits for the Triangle offense. Another is to see the team draft Porzingis or Russell, if they are available. While Mudiay is not the best fit for the Triangle, if the team stays with this pick, this is who they’re going with. This is also good for team president Phil Jackson, who clearly does not care about 3-point shooting:
NBA analysts give me some diagnostics on how 3pt oriented teams are faring this playoffs…seriously, how’s it goink?
Hopefully, if the Knickerbockers take Mudiay, all will be goink great by this time next year.
Mudiay Comparison: MICHAEL CARTER-WILLIAMS
5. Orlando Magic
The Pick: Mario Hezonja
SG/SF/Croatia
Hezonja is another enigmatic international player, and much like Porzingis, experts are split on him. Here is an excerpt from an SBNation piece that describes Hezonja’s attitude very well:
Hezonja constantly talks trash to the opponent. He showboats after three-pointers. He hangs at the rim after dunks. And about those dunks: he absolutely never passes up the opportunity to do a windmill or a double clutch when he’s rumbling down the floor in transition.
Here’s Hezonja not stopping with his team up 19 points with five seconds left on the clock. He should just run out the clock, but no. Instead, he’d rather establish himself as the alpha and put an exclamation point on Barcelona’s playoff victory.
And this is the video in which Hezonja throws down the hammer on Unicaja’s season:
Hezonja’s greatest gift is his athleticism, and he is a good jump shooter who is very dangerous from outside. His arrogance (or confidence, depending on how you view him), is what stands out to many. he takes shots he probably shouldn’t, but that’s who he is. He has the confidence/arrogance of a Kobe Bryant. It will remain to be seen whether or not he is actually that good, but my guess is that he’s not.
Hezonja Comparison: BEN McLEMORE
6. Sacramento Kings
The Pick: Kristaps Porzingis
PF/C/Latvia
This is probably lower than you’ve seen Porzingis in any mock draft recently. However, I still see him going to Sacramento and not Orlando. The reason is simple: I don’t see the Magic giving up on Channing Frye and his 4-year, $32 million contract after year one. I also don’t see the Magic giving up on last year’s #4 pick, Aaron Gordon, and his potential to grow into a potential starting power forward in the NBA.
The Kings, however, are a different story; while the Magic could use a power forward, a power forward is absolute necessity for the Kings. At their best last season, they were starting Jason Thompson. While they had success at the beginning of the season with him in the lineup, he only averaged 6 points per game and had a PER of 10.23, which ranked him 68th among power forwards. This is the position where they need the most help; at points last year, Rudy Gay was pressed into playing it.
The Kings need him not just to fill a role but also to serve as a running mate for star big man DeMarcus Cousins. Cousins has been one of the best centers in the NBA over the past 5 seasons, but has had no help in the frontcourt. This pick may change that, and in the process, give the Kings a 7-foot shooter who can space the floor and give Boogie room to operate in the post.
Going to Sacramento will allow Porzingis to screw up, make mistakes, and learn from those mistakes. The team should and will give him time to learn the game, and if he goes to Sacramento, we will look back on this as a thoroughly solid pick for a rebuilding team.
Porzingis Comparison: DONATAS MOTIEJUNAS
7. Denver Nuggets
The Pick: Justise Winslow
SF/Duke
The Nuggets go with a hard-nosed wing player that can help the team knock down its 3rd worst ranking in opponent points scored (105). Winslow plays excellent defense and has the best motor in the draft. Check out this play against Notre Dame in February that shows both his defense and his hustle:
That play is the reason that I had him at 4 on my big board. A player with his hustle, work ethic, and motor will always have a place in the NBA, and while he just does not have a great jump shot, his defense will be his meal ticket to a successful NBA career. This is the type of player that new Nuggets head coach Mike Malone should love to have on his team; a player that serves as a great example to the rest of the Nuggets, the same ones who quit on Brian Shaw, and a player that can help change the culture to a losing organization.
Winslow Comparison: MICHAEL KIDD-GILCHRIST
8. Detroit Pistons
The Pick: Stanley Johnson
F/Arizona
Johnson can step in as a quality stretch 4 who can play solid defense and knock down some threes. What is most important to the Pistons in this draft is protecting against a potential Greg Monroe departure, and while trading for Bucks PF Ersan Ilyasova helps in that regard, having an additional wing/stretch 4 can never hurt, especially considering that Tayshaun Prince is a free agent nearing the end of his career.
Ross Comparison: TERRENCE ROSS
9. Charlotte Hornets
The Pick: Cameron Payne
G/Murray State
Cameron Payne is one of the fastest rising players in this year’s NBA Draft, and people have come around to his game in recent weeks. Why? Because he belongs. Charlotte will take him here as another backcourt body as well as a good player to compliment Kemba Walker.
After the Lance Stephenson trade, some draft experts think that it is a given that Charlotte will go with a 2-guard at #9. Count among these ESPN draft guru Chad Ford:
With Lance Stephenson gone & Spencer Hawes on board, chances Hornets take a 2-guard like Devin Booker or Kelly Oubre at No. 9 just went up
This is a perfectly logical assumption to come to. But I doubt it will happen for one simple reason: neither of those players are 9th pick in the draft talents. They could possibly get to that point down the road, but they are both still risky selections. Payne can step right in and give Charlotte spacing, shooting, and shot creation right away. An added positive is that while he only stands at 6-2, his game allows him to play some 2-guard, which will allow him to get playing time even when Kemba Walker on the floor. He is a much better fit for this team than many pundits realize.
Payne Comparison: MIKE CONLEY
10. Miami Heat
The Pick: Willie Cauley-Stein
C/Kentucky
Do the Heat believe in mid-season revelation Hassan Whiteside? Is Dwyane Wade coming back to Miami? Those are the two questions that will dictate who gets taken here. My best guess on those two questions is no to the first and yes to the second. I answer the second question in the affirmative, even though Flash is already addressing his Heat days in the past tense:
However, this slip can just as easily be attributed to nervousness or simply misspeaking on air and not as a statement of fact. This may very well be an ignorant viewpoint, but I can’t visualize D-Wade in another uniform; I still don’t see him playing in a city not named Miami. However, no one ever saw LeBron James in a Heat uniform before 2010 either, so anything is possible.
The pick of Cauley-Stein here is also based on a possible lack of organizational belief in breakout center Hassan Whiteside. At points last year, Mr. Whiteside drew comparisons to one of the best shot-blocking big men of recent NBA memory:
Okay, what’s the deal with Hassan Whiteside morphing into a circa ’01 Marcus Camby? Seriously?
However, he also made plays like this one against Kelly Olynyk and the Celtics in March:
While Whiteside is under contract for next season, plays like the last one may temper Miami’s belief in his ability to maintain his composure at times. They can still bring in another center to push Whiteside in camp. Another center would also allow the Heat to see which player is better and worth keeping. This pick would set up a clear competition in which two men enter and only one survives long term with the organization.
Finally, how could you refuse big Willie’s style and his wardrobe decisions? He even has his own clothing line, and if this is on it, I may invest.
The Pacers may or may not need a big man this offseason. Roy Hibbert has a player option for next year, and Luis Scola is not under contract for next season. This pick is also one that is made in the interest of improving the team on the offensive end. While the Pacers ranked tied for third in the league in points allowed last season (97), they were ranked but 24th in the league in points scored (97.3). If Kaminsky winds up in Indiana, he can develop a niche as a floor-spacing big man who can knock down threes and do some ball-handling as well.
Kaminsky’s greatest asset unique to him is his incredible footwork. Look at him clown Jahlil Okafor with a genius spin move on this play in ‘Sconnie’s Title Game loss to Duke:
He is a player that is very smart and makes few mistakes with the basketball in his hand. He is maybe the most versatile player in this year’s draft, and can handle the ball and even create his own shot on occasion.
However, he will struggle to defend NBA big men, a fact that was painfully obvious in the Title Game when Frank the Tank struggled to hold down Okafor in the post. His lack of explosiveness also hurts him in this regard, and more athletic bigs may take him to town.
However, even though he basically is what he is as a player, he is a nice fit in the Pacers’ struggling offense.
Kaminsky Comparison: KELLY OLYNYK
12. Utah Jazz
The Pick: Myles Turner
C/Texas
The Jazz are in a good position with their frontcourt. They already have Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors in the fold, and they will occupy the starting spots at the two big positions. Favors is a gifted offensive player who can also do a good job on the glass. Gobert’s all-around game is still coming along going into his third NBA season, but he is a flat-out athletic freak:
The Jazz are a team looking to potentially sneak into the playoffs next year in the still-stacked Western Conference, and this is a pick that can help them fortify their identity as a defensive, rebounding team. Little-known fact: the Jazz allowed the least points per game in the NBA last season (94.9). This team could become a poor man’s version of the Grizzlies of recent years, and having another big man in the fold will help them to realize this potential.
Turner is one of if not the best rebounding big man in this year’s draft, and he also has a vastly improved jump shot and face-up game. He can get knocked around by stronger bigs in the paint, but his frame should fill out some. He is the obvious choice here.
Turner Comparison: BROOK LOPEZ
13. Phoenix Suns
The Pick: Kelly Oubre
SF/Kansas
I’m going to make this clear from the jump: I don’t love Oubre’s game. He has a tendency to take poor shots, especially jumpers, and he is not an overly willing passer. He’s not a great jump shooter, and, as you may be able to guess, his basketball IQ and feel for the game have lots of room for improvement. However, he does things like this, and you can tell that there is room for him somewhere in the NBA:
The place where there is clearly room for him to play is in Phoenix. He is a great fit here, where is excellent athleticism and his prowess in transition will help the Suns’ high-powered attack. The Suns played the third-fastest pace in the NBA last season, only trailing the two best teams in the West, Golden State and Houston. While Oubre needs a lot of work in most of the other areas of his game, he doesn’t need work here.
Phoenix is a place where Oubre can go and maximize his potential. This is the one team in the lottery that he can go to and immediately flourish. Their high-powered offense and up-tempo system will maximize his strengths (athleticism, defensive potential, transition play) and minimize his weaknesses (feel for the game, jump shooting, consistency). This is the perfect fit for him, in all areas of the game.
Oubre Comparison: WESLEY JOHNSON
14. Oklahoma City Thunder
The Pick: Sam Dekker
F/Wisconsin
This is a team that has very few needs on paper. However, they would like to have insurance against another year or more of injuries to Kevin Durant. Not to panic Thunder fans, but the history of the NBA seems to suggest that foot injuries don’t go away, but foot injuries have largely occurred in big men (Bill Walton, Sam Bowie, Yao Ming). However, the Thunder were two different teams last season: the one with KD and the one without him. They were 18-9 when Durant played last season and 27-28 when he didn’t suit up.
The Thunder were left to starting either Kyle Singler or Andre Roberson at that position without Durant. I feel that Dekker can and will be a better player than both of them, and can step in and contribute off the bench when Durant is playing. This is a team competing for a title, and they get to fill a need and draft a luxury, both in one shot.
Dekker is a versatile offensive player who can do a little bit of everything on that end of the floor. He is not the best defender, but he can either defend the perimeter or the post there. His jump shot can be erratic and has a stupid high arc. While he drained this one to send Wisconsin to the Final Four, you can see that the shot is in the air for nearly 2 seconds:
He shot 50% from three in the tournament, but turned in an 0-6 performance in the National Championship Game; his jumper finally regressed to the mean. That always happens to shooters that are mediocre or worse; they struggle to stay hot and their shot comes crashing down to Earth sooner or later. However, Dekker belongs in the NBA, even if his jump shot may hit the ceiling once or twice. He will be a role player to start, and could develop into a decent starter someday.
Dekker Comparison: CHANDLER PARSONS
15. Atlanta Hawks
The Pick: Trey Lyles
PF/Kentucky
Paul Millsap, DeMarre Carroll and Pero Antic are all free agents this summer. They probably should all stay in Atlanta, especially if the #1 thing they care about is winning. However, if the Hawks cannot protect all of them, and that is likely, Lyles is a safe, obvious choice at 15. Of course, the Knicks could trade down for him, but the Hawks could use his face up game and offensive versatility here.
Lyles is a tweener defensively, and he struggles to guard bigger power forwards in the post. His best work on defense comes when he is guarding small forwards and wings, and if he can guard NBA wings with success, he can have a nice career. His frame needs to fill out to have success, especially on the glass, but he has the potential to get better and make a career for himself.
Lyles Comparison: DAVID WEST
16. Boston Celtics
The Pick: Bobby Portis
PF/Arkansas
Portis, in my view, is one of this year’s draft’s most criminally underrated players. He realizes this too, as profiled in this BasketballInsiders piece:
“I play mad,” Portis said. “I play very angry because when I’m sitting in the locker room before a game, I imagine my opponent slapped my Mom. That’s why I play mad. Now, I have to bring it to him because he slapped my Mom… I’ve created this thing that I do now where I get mad so I can go out there and have a productive night.”
Portis knows this is somewhat strange, telling reporters with a smile, “I am crazy.” But there’s no arguing with the results. His pre-game ritual certainly worked in college, as he averaged 17.5 points, 8.9 rebounds, 1.4 blocks and 1.1 steals as a sophomore at Arkansas. Not to mention, he shot extremely well from the field (53.6 percent) and three-point range (46.7 percent).
The 20-year-old power forward is an interesting and versatile prospect. He studies Kevin Garnett, trying to mimic aspects of Garnett’s game and, most notably, his intensity.
Yes. Kevin Garnett. While he does not have Garnett’s overall game, he does have the intensity of KG. His motor is something awesome, and he keeps plays alive with it. His motor aids him in making winning plays, those that make the razor thin difference between winning and losing.
He also plays like Garnett with his faceup game. His agility helps him to take bigger, less spry defenders off the bounce, and his decent, still developing jump shot keeps those same defenders honest. His basketball IQ is also very high, and he makes the easy, simple play, which goes a long way in the NBA. Mark my words: Bobby Portis is going to have a long, successful career in the NBA. Don’t believe me? Just watch.
Portis Comparison: TAJ GIBSON
17. Milwaukee Bucks
The Pick: Devin Booker
SG/Kentucky
Booker is an intriguing player whose best skill at this point in his career is his jump shooting. Take this quote from a CBS Philadelphia article from his college head coach, John Calipari:
Unprompted, Coach Cal compared Booker to one of the NBA’s ascending shooting guards, who just happened to win the NBA Championship on Tuesday night.
“You’re talking about a big guard, who can shoot, Klay Thompson-ish,” Calipari said of Booker. “That’s what he looks like. The league now is create a rotation defensively and take advantage of that rotation. Well, with him out on the court, either you don’t let him get it and it’s four-on-four or you do let him get it and he’s looking quick three, pull-up elbow, teach him to finish at the rim, he’s pretty good. Again, the league at his size, he ends up guarding somebody 6 [foot], 4 [inches], 6 [foot], 5 [inches].”
Let me put this out here before the people reading this go crazy: He isn’t Klay Thompson. Sorry. He’s one of the best shooters in the draft, and he is the youngest player in the draft. (He will turn 19 on October 30th, which is around the time when the 2015-16 season will start). However, he will not gain added mobility with age, and his athleticism is not very good either. He can become a good player in the NBA, but he isn’t Klay Thompson.
The Bucks need him for his offense and 3-point shooting. Even though they ranked 7th in the league in shooting from beyond the arc (36.3%), they struggled to score points (97.9 PPG, T-21st). These facts were painfully apparent in their first-round series against the Bulls, in which they shot 30% from 3 and failed to average 90 points per game. Milwaukee also has a good deal of cap room with the trade of Ersan Ilyasova, and they could be gearing up for a big summer in free agency. Don’t count out the possibility of the Bucks signing or trading for a marquee player, and possibly using Booker to do this.
Booker will be a solid NBA player. His three-point shooting will help whichever team he goes to. But he isn’t Klay Thompson.
Booker Comparison: DANNY GREEN
18. Houston Rockets
The Pick: Delon Wright
G/Utah
Wright gives the Rockets a solid defensive point guard the likes of their current starting point guard, Patrick Beverley. When Beverley went down last season, backup Jason Terry performed admirably in his presence, and even got in a crossover against the league MVP:
However, Terry is in his contract year, and testing free agency once more is an option for Jet. Another option for him is to retire, which is also very possible. Wright gives the Rockets an NBA-ready point guard that can become a contributor right away off the bench.
Wright’s most translatable skill to the NBA right now is his length and his defense. He also has a high basketball IQ and he got to the free throw line consistently at Utah. However, he is not quick or fast, and his jump shot needs a good deal of improvement.
Wright Comparison: ELFRID PAYTON
19. Washington Wizards
The Pick: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
SF/Arizona
Last year, Paul Pierce anchored the small forward spot for the Wizards. While he had a solid year, he averaged the lowest points per game of his career (11.9) and at 37 years old, he may not have much left in the tank. However, he had a little bit left for the playoffs:
After the game, the Truth said this when asked whether he called bank on the shot:
That quote is entirely appropriate for the discussion of the Wizards pick at 19. If Pierce calls game on his Hall of Fame career, the Wizards need a body to put in the rotation behind presumed starter Otto Porter. The Wizards are clearly gearing up for the summer of 2016, however, as the organization and its fans are pulling out all the stops to get him back to his hometown:
In the interim, however, Hollis-Jefferson will give the Wizards the gift of his outstanding athleticism and motor. For the Wizards, he can be an excellent role player, providing energy and effort off the bench for a team trying to take the next step in the Eastern Conference. He is also a very versatile defender. However, his jump shot can do a good deal of improving, and he needs to improve it to augment his athleticism and hard work both on the glass and defensively.
Hollis-Jefferson Comparison: KAWHI LEONARD
20. Toronto Raptors
The Pick: Tyus Jones
PG/Duke
This is another criminally underrated player in this draft. Draft experts are lower on Jones because of his very limited mobility. However, he took, and made, enormously big shots all year long, like this one that spelled the beginning of the end for Wisconsin in the National Title Game:
The point here is that Jones has historically been a clutch player who has a history of winning. He is also an excellent passer who always gets the ball to his teammates at the right time, in the right place. Jones is also a good shooter, which always helps at the next level. However, he will have to rely on his jumper in the pros, as he will struggle to create his own shot. The lack of athletic tools limit Jones’ upside as well, and he will be a backup in the league for at least his first year in the league.
This is a good fit for the Raptors because they are at risk of losing the 2014-15 6th Man of the Year award winner, Lou Williams, to free agency. Williams, a guard, is an unrestricted free agent after this season. They will definitely look to get him back, but will also take Jones on account of the possibility that he may not be back.
I believe that Jones’ ability to create for others and shoot will make him a good player in the NBA. His very high basketball IQ will not hurt either, and this will give him a long prosperous career.
Jones Comparison: JEFF TEAGUE (BETTER)/MO WILLIAMS (WORSE)
21. Dallas Mavericks
The Pick: Monterzl Harrell
PF/Louisville
The Mavericks need a little bit of everything is this year’s offseason, and they would like to have it in the form of youth. Harrell is a good place to start, as his athleticism, rebounding, and mobility, especially for a big man, are ready to be showcased at the next level. His defense could use improvement, and while his athleticism makes up for some of these errors, he could use improvement with this as well as his rebounding.
The Mavericks were the oldest team in the league last season (average age: 29.5 years old) and they desperately need youth. Tyson Chandler and Amar’e Stoudemire are free agents. Dirk Nowitzki is nearing the end of his stellar career. Additionally, key bench player Charlie Villanueva is also a free agent. The point I’m trying to make here is clear: the team needs to get younger, in a hurry.
Harrell is a player who, despite his mistakes, will be an outstanding energy big, especially for a team like the Mavericks, who are looking to win a title. His feel for the game and decision making can greatly improve, but going to a team like the Mavericks will help out his career a ton.
Harrell Comparison: AMIR JOHNSON
22. Chicago Bulls
The Pick: Terry Rozier
PG/Louisville
The Bulls may very well need a backup point guard again this offseason, as Aaron Brooks is an unrestricted free agent and Kirk Hinrich has a player option. Rozier seems to be the logical choice in this spot, and the Windy City is a very good fit for him.
Rozier is a high volume scorer who also has the ability to find open teammates. While is shot selection can suffer at times, his ability to create his shot is a very translatable skill for him going into his rookie season. Another skill of his is his defense, as he is a pick-pocket-er who will swipe the ball away from unsuspecting ball handlers. He is a sneaky good choice at pick #22.
Think about this: the backup point guard on the Bulls has prospered every year since the lockout-shortened 2011-12 season. Players such as C.J. Watson, Kirk Hinrich, Nate Robinson, D.J. Augustin, and Aaron Brooks have all seen increases in offensive production. This is for one simple reason: Derrick Rose’s inability to avoid the injury bug, especially with his knees. If the Bulls take Rozier, remember his name; he could be pressed into more action than some would think.
Rozier Comparison: TREY BURKE
23. Portland Trail Blazers
The Pick: Kevon Looney
PF/UCLA
Guess what: LaMarcus Aldridge may very well be leaving the Pacific Northwest this summer. Rumors have pegged Aldridge as going to either the Spurs or Mavericks in free agency, and league executives believe Aldridge will leave, accroding to ESPN’s Brian Windhorst:
Will Love sign it? He’s repeatedly said that he intends to be with the Cavs next year and into the future. The issue is that almost no one in the league believes it yet, so he will be courted on July 1. Of all of the high-profile free agents this summer, executives still believe Love and LaMarcus Aldridge are the likeliest to be willing to change teams.
That clears the way for Portland to go with a power forward, making UCLA’s Kevon Looney a sensible pick. Even though he is not a very good athlete and does not have much strength to knock around NBA big men in the post, he is a very good offensive rebounder and defender. This play shows his rebounding prowess, although you can begin to detect a lack of lift on his part:
There is no way on Earth that Looney will be able to replace Aldridge, assuming he leaves. However, he can give the Blazers defense, which, even though it ranked 12th in the league in points allowed (98.6), could use improvement, especially considering that Portland plays the Thunder four times a year and would like to win another division title next year. Their work will be cut out for them without Aldridge, however.
Looney Comparison: WAY LESS ATHLETIC TERRENCE JONES
24. Cleveland Cavaliers
The Pick: R.J. Hunter
SG/Georgia State
The Cavaliers need some help for LeBron James. In Miami, the self-proclaimed best player in the world had shooters such as Mike Miller, James Jones, Ray Allen, Shane Battier, and Mario Chalmers to turn to when he was bottled up. Without Kevin Love or Kyrie Irving in the NBA Finals, however, there was little to no floor spacing with players such as Matthew Dellavedova and Iman Shumpert. They, along with J.R. Smith, hit some key threes, especially in the series’ first three games, but went cold in the last three games.
Georgia State shooting guard R.J. Hunter will change that. He can shoot the lights out at times, and, although he is inconsistent, he can help the Cavs space the floor in some limited minutes off the bench. On the off chance that James Jones or Mike Miller leave, he can help to replace them. J.R. Smith also has a player option, and he may not be back either.
Hunter is a knockdown shooter who can also play a little in the pick and roll. You know what that means in the NBA though: he’ll be used as a knockdown shooter. Check out this three that he drained in the team’s first round NCAA Tournament game to sink heavily favored Baylor:
While he is thin as a rail and will get kicked around defensively, the jump shooting he provides is his greatest asset. He can be streaky as a shooter and will have some bad misses from time to time, but can really help the Cavaliers space the floor better than they did at times last year and in the NBA Finals. This is the easy choice here.
Hunter Comparison: GARY NEAL
25. Memphis Grizzlies
The Pick: Jarell Martin
F/LSU
The Grizzlies have not one but two aging big men in Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. It also doesn’t help that Gasol is a free agent, and a prized commodity at that. With Randolph nearing the end of his career, it would help the Grizzlies greatly to have a backup power forward, especially if Randolph becomes susceptible to injury like he was in 2011-12. However, Martin is a far different player than the Grizzlies are used to having.
Martin is a sick athlete that runs the floor in transition and makes spectacular highlight plays on a regular basis. Have a look at a dunk he threw down against Florida, in a college basketball game that counted.
Martin’s athleticism is everything in his game, which is why his overall game needs a lot of work. His defense is extremely questionable, as is his effort at that end. His basketball IQ is not very high, and he is prone to ball watching on defense and taking tough shots on offense. However, he is a project, one that will allow Randolph to finish his career without looking over his shoulder.
Martin Comparison: JEFF GREEN
26. San Antonio Spurs
The Pick: Nikola Milutinov
PF/C/Serbia
The Spurs have had other-worldly success in terms of drafting international players. This chart demonstrates this fact:
1999: Manu Ginobili
2001: Tony Parker
2002: Luis Scola
2003: Leandro Barbosa
2004: Beno Udrih
2005: Ian Mahinmi
2007: Tiago Splitter
2008: Goran Dragic
2009: Nando de Colo
That isn’t too shabby. Players such as Scola, Barbosa, Udrih, Mahinmi and Dragic had to be let go because the Spurs simply didn’t need them. The team’s contract situation is also good, provided Ginobili and Tim Duncan decide to come back, which they most likely will. The rest of the team, with the exception of Parker, Boris Diaw and Splitter is also under contract, but few if any of the role players are likely to leave.
This pick can very easily become what is known as a draft-and-stash pick, especially considering how interested San Antonio is in LaMarcus Aldridge in free agency. Milutinov is a solid jump shooter, especially from inside the arc, a good transition player, as well as a great passer from inside the paint. He is a typical Spur. However, this pick is not about what Milutinov gives the Spurs; it’s about what he doesn’t take from them; a roster spot.
Milutinov Comparison: MEYERS LEONARD
27. Los Angeles Lakers
The Pick: Justin Anderson
SF/Virginia
The Lakers have this pick from the Houston Rockets after last summer’s Jeremy Lin trade. They could go in a couple of different directions here, as this is simply a luxury pick with which the Lakers could fill out the roster. With Okafor already in the fold, they are likely to go with Virginia’s Justin Anderson, who will provide them depth at small forward just in case Wesley Johnson leaves in free agency.
While Johnson had one of the best years of his career (out of necessity), he cannot be counted upon to do the same again due to the returns of Kobe Bryant and Joseph Randle and the Lakers’ #2 draft pick. Anderson can provide depth behind Johnson, even though he has stayed remarkably healthy over the course of his career.
However, the Lake Show may be on to something with a late-round pick. As Umair Khan of the Wizards-centric website “Bullets Forever” writes, Anderson may be the league’s next great “3-and-D” player off the bench:
He has all the tools you want out of a “3 and D” prospect, but with some baggage as well. I think it’ll take a year of seasoning and learning the intricacies of an NBA defense, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he stepped in from day one and made an impact either. There’s rough edges, but he’s also a prospect with good size and athleticism and with NBA range on his shot.
This sums up Anderson’s game perfectly. He can be a decent three-point shooter and rebounder with good athleticism. He needs time, but he could be a stealthily good choice for L.A. at 27.
Anderson Comparison: AL-FAROUQ-AMINU
28. Boston Celtics
The Pick: Jerian Grant
PG/Notre Dame
The Celtics acquired this pick in the Doc Rivers trade from two drafts ago. They don’t have very many needs this year, although Grant can fill a need that may not appear to exist, but still does.
The C’s may very well be in need of a backup point guard. After trading Rajon Rondo on December 10, 2014, Boston was forced to use Phil Pressey as their backup point guard, and his real numbers and per 36 minutes numbers were not very good. The organization tried to assuage this need by trading for Isaiah Thomas at the trade deadline, but the team was only playing three guards consistently; Thomas, Marcus Smart and Avery Bradley. They could use a fourth guard, and specifically a point guard, to fill this need. Grant fits the bill perfectly.
Grant is an excellent passer who creates for others by using his elite size and passing ability. He also has the ability to knock down some jump shots, but not with regularity. His defense is good and can even still improve a little bit. He will struggle to finish in the NBA, and will need to develop his jumper and range to combat this, but he is a good fit for the Celtics here.
29. Brooklyn Nets
The Pick: Cliff Alexander
PF/C/Kansas
This is one of those picks where the team has little if any wiggle room with their cap situation and decides on a player because it has nothing to lose. This is why Alexander is going here. The Nets have nothing to lose (or gain, for that matter) and they are taking a player with good potential who can step in a make a contribution. This is Cliff Alexander’s potential, right here:
Alexander is also an excellent rebounder who moves very well for a big man. He also has grown-man strength, and uses in screens and back downs. However, he has a poor feel for the game and is extremely foul-prone on defense. He was also held out of action after February 23 after it was learned that his mother took out a loan for Alexander’s pro career, so there is not a ton of tape on him.
However, the Nets will cross their fingers and hope for the very best on this pick. It’s all they can do.
Alexander Comparison: DANTE CUNNINGHAM
30. Golden State Warriors
The Pick: Chris McCullough
PF/Syracuse
The Warriors have very few needs coming off their first NBA title since 1975. However, the Warriors are shopping David Lee, and there is a slim chance, but a chance nonetheless, that jack-of-all-trades Draymond Green leaves in free agency. McCullough is simply protection against this happening, and nothing more.
McCullough has a tendency to run the floor, and he is very agile in transition. He can become a good shooter, especially as a face-up player. He fits the Warriors system perfectly; wide open, fast-paced and quick-firing.
Where McCullough falls short is his defense, where he is not overly tough or physical, for that matter. His lack of strength hurts him on the glass and in the post. He will have to fill out to have a career in the NBA, but the potential is there. Also, he tore his ACL this past January, which is one giant red flag.
The Golden State Warriors completed their championship run last night with a 105-97 defeat of the Cleveland Cavaliers. Andre Iguodala scored 25 points, dished out 5 assists and grabbed 5 rebounds on his way to being named Finals MVP. Stephen Curry also scored 25 points to go along with 6 rebounds and 8 assists. Draymond Green had a triple-double of 16 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 assists. Festus Ezeli, Shaun Livingston, and Harrison Barnes threw in 10 points, 10 points, and 9 points, respectively. The team’s depth finally wore out the persistent Cavs, and their lack of depth finally caught up with them. However, this should not take away from this simple fact:
The 2014-15 Golden State Warriors are one of the greatest NBA teams of all time.
Take this stat that compares this year’s Warriors team to the Bulls team of 1995-96 and 1996-97:
Warriors: 83rd win this season, becoming 3rd team in NBA history with at least 83 wins (1995-96 Bulls and 1996-97 Bulls)
There are a couple things to consider here. To start, both of those ’90s Bulls teams did not have the benefit a best-of-seven first round series. If those teams did have a best-of-seven first round instead of a best-of five, the ’95-’96 team would have won 88 games and the ’96-’97 team would have won 85 games. However, two things separates those Bulls from these Warriors: the conference they were in and what they did to their respective competition on their way to The Finals. In 1995-96 and 1996-97, when the Bulls won 72 and 69 games, respectively, exactly zero teams gave the Bulls trouble on their way to The Finals. One team won a game against Chicago in the 1996 Playoffs from the Eastern Conference: the Knicks. The Bulls went on to win those Finals in 6 games against one of the more underrated NBA teams of all-time, the 1995-96 Seattle SuperSonics. The Hawks and Heat each took a game from Chicago in the 1997 Playoffs, and Chicago would go on to defeat the Utah Jazz in 6 games in the Finals.
Another thing to consider with these three teams is the one common denominator on all of them, as a player and as a coach: Steve Kerr. On the late 1990s Bulls, Kerr, the player, was a key bench player who, in his 5 years in Chicago, never started a game. Sound familiar? The MVP of this year’s Finals, Andre Iguodala, hadn’t started a game all season until Game 4 of this series, and his insertion into the starting lineup changed the series. Like Iguodala, Kerr made big plays when it counted, like this one at the end of the 1997 NBA Finals to give the Bulls their 5th championship:
Also Coach Kerr made the gutsy decision to limit the minutes of his two big men, Festus Ezeli and Andrew Bogut, because their presence was limiting the Dubs’ transition opportunities. Cleveland out-rebounded the Warriors in two out of the three games with the small lineup, but the Warriors played at a faster pace and got to 100 points in every game since the lineup overhaul.
Another great facet of Steve Kerr’s coaching is his absolutely genius inbound plays, like this one:
The bottom-line is that no one gives nearly enough credit to Kerr for the team’s turnaround this year. Think about this stat: the Warriors went from 51 wins to 67 wins in the Western Conference. Granted, there are other factors at play here that allowed them to make this jump (the fall of the depleted Thunder, the decline of this year’s Spurs, facing the Pelicans in the first round and not the Thunder), but that’s still very impressive. It’s clear that the difference was made in the offseason with the hiring of Kerr and the unpopular firing of Mark Jackson, who won 51 games last year and turned the franchise around. The team was first in offensive points scored at 110 and allowed less than 100 points per game defensively. They had the top points per game differential as well, at +10.1. This team was dominant on both ends. For context, the ’95-’96 Bulls’ differential was +12.3 and the ’96-’97 Bulls’ differential was +10.8.
This being said, I don’t think these Warriors are as good as those teams were. A more apt comparison for them, as a young, potentially all-time great team with no previous Finals experience, would have to be the Bulls of 1990-1991. That team also scored 110 points per game and allowed 101, for a +9 differential. That team also played 9 players consistently, and was more similar to these Warriors than you might think. They played two bigs consistently, but they had comparisons to these Warriors. They had their Draymond Green (Horace Grant) and their Andrew Bogut (Bill Cartwright). However, the comparisons end there for one simple reason: we’ve never seen a team quite like the Warriors before.
To sum it all up, this isn’t about whether the Warriors could beat an all-time great team in a one-game or seven-game series. This is about the coronation of a new team in the new NBA with a new way of winning a title. And they’re just getting started; most of their roster is back, and the only instability comes in Draymond Green’s impending restricted free agency, but look for the Warriors to match any offer Green gets. This team could be the next Spurs, a great dynasty. This, of course, is if they stay healthy, which, as we’ve seen in the NBA this season, is not the easiest thing to do. However, if everyone important stays, this team has the potential to be a great unit that is right in the title conversation every year. They will evolve and change certain pieces, but they could be back in the finals 10-15 years from now, and there may only be one constant:
Chef Curry with the ring, boy.
But let’s appreciate this year’s team for what it is: one of the best ever.
The Cavaliers wasted another brilliant LeBron James performance last night in Oakland, losing 104-91 to the Warriors. The game was a perfect demonstration of why the Cavaliers are about to lose these Finals, why LeBron James is the best player in the world, and why LeBron should be named the Finals’ MVP, even if Cleveland goes down either in Game 6 on Tuesday or Game 7 on Friday.
One of the main reasons why the clear MVP of this series is LeBron is because there is no clear MVP from the Warriors. The team’s two best players in this series may very well be the league MVP (Steph Curry) and the series-altering addition to Golden State’s starting lineup, Andre Iguodala. Curry has averaged 26.2 points, 5 rebounds and 6 assists per game in these Finals; however, he was effectively shout down in Game 2 and for the first 3 quarters of Game 3 by Matthew Dellavedova. Iguodala has averaged 14.6 points, 6 rebounds. and 3.8 assists per game in the series, but has been +29 in the two games since being inserted into the starting lineup. James’ stats, however, are a different story. Per game, he’s averaged a meager 36.6 points, 12.4 rebounds, and 8.8 assists. While it’s true that his efficiency is at an all-time low, what other choice does he have? Exactly; he doesn’t. He has to put the team on his shoulders, and that he has and that this series is still going is simply amazing.
The last Finals MVP to not be on the winning team was the Lakers’ Jerry West in 1969. That year, his Lakers lost to the Bill Russell and John Havlicek-led Celtics in 7 games. Check out this stat that compares West’s performance that year to James’ this year, from ESPN Stats & Info:
40-point triple-doubles in NBA Finals LeBron James, Sunday (40 pts, 14 reb, 11 ast) Jerry West, Game 7 1969 (42, 13, 12) Via @EliasSports
That’s amazing. It just goes to show you that he is doing everything he possibly can in this series to put the Cavaliers on his shoulders. Due to injuries and a profound lack of depth on the Cavs’ bench, James has absolutely zero help from his own team. Also, to hammer home this point, SportsCenter tweeted this stat out today, demonstrating what LeBron has done in this series, in spite of his team:
Crazy Stat of Day: LeBron James was responsible for 70 of 91 Cavaliers points in Game 5 (40 scored, 30 assisted). pic.twitter.com/hzYnrwlYr4
That counts for 77% of the Cavaliers points last night. LeBron James had a hand in nearly 80% of his team’s scoring on the offensive end. The next stat again comes from ESPN Stats & Info, and it compares Curry’s fourth quarter with the games of Iman Shumpert, J.R. Smith and Matthew Dellavedova, the other three perimeter players that played heavy minutes for Cleveland last night:
Steph Curry and the Warriors are on the brink of a championship, while LeBron James keeps making history: pic.twitter.com/mFkq0u8mzC
All credit to the Warriors and Curry for stepping up after a demoralizing loss in Game 3. They have been a different team since going down 2-1 and putting Iguodala into the lineup. However, it’s becoming increasingly obvious that the Warriors depth is winning out against Cleveland, who is still only playing eight a game. However, they made a change last night in playing Timofey Mozgov, their best player in Game 4, for only 9 minutes in Game 5 compared to 33 minutes in Game 4.
It will be very difficult for the Cavaliers to come back and win this series. However they have a chance. They have a chance because they have LeBron James, and the Warriors do not. According to LeBron, they are confident in their chances. Listen to James speak about why he is still confident despite facing a 3-2 deficit and having to play a potential Game 7 in the loudest arena in the NBA:
It’s profound. It’s bold. It’s mic-drop worthy. Most of all? It’s true. LeBron James is the best player in the world; that simple.
In the first three games of this year’s NBA Finals, the Warriors looked like they didn’t have the mettle and toughness to win a title and dethrone the king. They were getting beat by the Cavaliers’ tenacious defense and being clowned defensively by LeBron James, who was averaging 41 points per game in the series. Matthew Dellavedova was causing fits on defense, particularly to MVP Stephen Curry, who shot just 32% (11-34) in those three games; however, with the exception of the fourth quarter of Game 3, he was just 23% (6-26). Klay Thompson was also shooting 32% (9-28). However, this all changed in last night’s Game 4. James scored just 20 points on 7-22 shooting, and while the combination of Curry and Thompson combined for only 31, it was a lineup change by coach Steve Kerr that made the difference. He took the floundering Andrew Bogut out of the starting lineup and inserted Andre Iguodala, who had started every game of his career until this year, which saw him come off the bench every night. He scored 22 points, grabbed 8 rebounds, and was very possibly the best player on the floor, outplaying King James.
The change in the Warriors play was not only due to the change in the lineup, however. According to Draymond Green, the team was not worried about the 2-1 deficit:
The team did come out pissed, winning loose balls that they had previously lost and wearing down Cleveland in the process. Another factor in Golden State’s success was their depth. They had regularly played nine players in their rotation regularly; the Cavaliers only played seven. Their depth became a plus, which is a positive for them going into the series’ last three games:
Warriors kept saying their depth wd b plus. It finally was in this 4th quarter, even on a night their starters took heavier than usual load.
The combination of their depth along with their effort and hustle allowed them to pull away in Game 4 and tie the series.
The scariest part of playing the Warriors for the Cavaliers right now is that Curry and Thompson have not gotten going yet. Last night, however, even though they did not have great games, players like Lee, Iguodala, and Shaun Livingston (who was an otherworldly +25 in 25 minutes coming off the bench last night) picked them up. Thompson and Curry were +15 and +18, respectively. When they came out, however, the team was +3 in 7 minutes without Curry and +6 in 9 minutes without Thompson. Again, the team’s depth is a huge plus for them and a bigger negative for the Cavaliers. Also, of the seven players the Cavs are playing, one of them has been a glaring negative: J.R. Smith. He, in 28 minutes in Game 4, was -27, and he shot just 2-12 from the field. However, if he doesn’t have his shot, he can always have his PhunkeeDuck:
However, it’s obvious: if the Cavaliers continue to play 7 players, then those seven players are going to have to play really, really well. While the rest of the Cavs have actually played pretty well in this series, especially Dellavedova, only two of their players played very well last night: their two big men, Tristan Thompson and Timofey Mozgov. And part of their success was the game plan of the Warriors that allowed them to get their points against a smaller, quicker lineup that could make plays at the other end. The Dubs’ defense double-teamed James, especially in the post, and this, combined with the smaller lineup, created mismatches with Cleveland’s bigs.
Another issue the Cavaliers had in last night’s game was their energy, or lack thereof. They looked to have tired legs and wore out as the game went on. Dellavedova and LeBron cramped up as the game went on, as well; both needed post game treatment for cramping after game 3 (Dellavedova wound up in the hospital). James also lacerated his head on a camera lens in the second quarter:
The bottom line is that everyone on the Cavaliers was tired last night. The extra day off before Game 5 on Sunday is absolutely a must, and they have to get their legs back between now and then. If they don’t, they won’t be able to pull out the miracle and beat the Warriors. However, one thing is clear after last night.
Last night in Oakland, the Warriors played the Cavaliers in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. Cleveland jumped out to a 14-point lead late in the first quarter, which evaporated by late in the second. The game was extremely tight in the second half, however, and it was tied with 32 seconds to go. With the ball and a potential two-for-one situation, the Warriors moved quickly. They set up a fantastic play which saw Steph Curry get the ball in one-on-one action against the ailing Kyrie Irving. Curry got around Irving, looked like he had a layup secured, and…
On the next possession, LeBron James, while being defended by Andre Iguodala, stepped back for three, missed, and then the ball popped off the rim to Iman Shumpert.
This was the closest the Cavaliers came to scoring until the very end of the overtime session. Neither team scored for the first 1:48 of OT, and the only points scored in the first 2:30 of overtime were Curry free throws. Then this happened, which could be calamity for the Cavs:
The Cavaliers would not score in the overtime until a LeBron layup with nine seconds left, which the Warriors defense willingly yielded.
Irving is scheduled for an MRI this afternoon, and he is having that MRI performed as this article is being written. If there is an official update on his injury and/or status for the rest of the series, this will be updated. However, his Game 2 status looks grim, per USA Today’s Jeff Zillgitt:
Nothing official from Cavs yet on Kyrie Irving’s knee, but I’m hearing he is unlikely to play in Game 2 regardless of MRI results.
If Irving cannot play in Game 2 or beyond, the Cavaliers are most likely done. This is why.
Without Irving, the Cavs would most likely turn to Matthew Dellavedova to start at the point. In Game 1 against Golden State, Irving had the best +/- number on the Cavs, at +5. Dellavedova had the worst at -13. Worst of all, he did that in nine minutes. If he would have played Irving’s 44 minutes at this rate, his +/- would have been -64. Of course, that wouldn’t happen, because the game would have evened out after a certain amount of time, before those 44 minutes were up. But Dellavedova’s complete lack of impact in those minutes is utterly concerning. He had three assists and one rebound in those nine minutes, and that’s basically it. He did nothing to distinguish himself, and was also on the floor during the Warriors’ bench-fueled comeback in the second quarter.
Another issue for the Cavaliers is the question of who will help LeBron in the scoring department. As Bill Russell once said in a Pepsi Uncle Drew commercial, “This game has always been, and will always be, about buckets.” Sure, he scored 44 points last night, as well as 8 rebounds and 6 assists. However, the Warriors are obviously not terribly worried about James’ scoring; they are more worried about that of his supporting cast. LeBron also made some very tough shots, especially jumpers, against very good defense from Andre Iguodala, Harrison Barnes, and others. He will not make those shots forever, and without Irving, he may be the Cavaliers only productive offensive player. Sure, Tristan Thompson had 15 rebounds and played an awesome game last night, but he can’t do too much on offense. J.R. Smith played well in the first half, but went cold in the second. Can he get his own shot without the passing and floor spacing that Kyrie provides? Can Timofey Mozgov get the same pick and roll dunks he did last night, like this one?
And can the Cavaliers’ bench out-perform that of the Warriors if Uncle Drew is unavailable? It would have been tough for all of these things to happen with Irving, but without him, they become nearly impossible.
In conclusion, the Warriors should get plenty of credit here. They found a LeBron defender in Iguodala, who defended him extremely well the entire night, as well as on the last play of regulation. In my Finals preview last week, I only mentioned Iguodala once, and that was a mistake; I forgot about ‘Dre. However, we cannot forget about how this series is basically over if the Cavs don’t have Irving for the rest of the series.
Without him, the Cavaliers are done, already.
UPDATE: As I wrote this article, I said I would update it with potential Kyrie news. Well, here it is. Back to Zillgitt:
Kyrie Irving has a fractured left knee cap and will have surgery in the next few days. Done for the Finals.
DeAndre Jordan, and others. They lost out on Aldridge when he 
four years with Jordan also under contract. However, without Jordan, the Mavericks have decided to push Matthews’ contract to 
the chance to improve on last year’s showing and build a title contender. This year is no different, as there are plenty of key free agents that could be changing teams. This list will be the five most important free agents this year, not necessarily the best ones. So let’s get started, with the five most important NBA free agents this summer.
points, dished out 5 assists and grabbed 5 rebounds on his way to being named Finals MVP. Stephen Curry also scored 25 points to go along with 6 rebounds and 8 assists. Draymond Green had a triple-double of 16 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 assists. Festus Ezeli, Shaun Livingston, and Harrison Barnes threw in 10 points, 10 points, and 9 points, respectively. The team’s depth finally wore out the persistent Cavs, and their lack of depth finally caught up with them. However, this should not take away from this simple fact:
104-91 to the Warriors. The game was a perfect demonstration of why the Cavaliers are about to lose these Finals, why LeBron James is the best player in the world, and why LeBron should be named the Finals’ MVP, even if Cleveland goes down either in Game 6 on Tuesday or Game 7 on Friday.
defense and being clowned defensively by LeBron James, who was averaging 41 points per game in the series. Matthew Dellavedova was causing fits on defense, particularly to MVP Stephen Curry, who shot just 32% (11-34) in those three games; however, with the exception of the fourth quarter of Game 3, he was just 23% (6-26). Klay Thompson was also shooting 32% (9-28). However, this all changed in last night’s Game 4. James scored just 20 points on 7-22 shooting, and while the combination of Curry and Thompson combined for only 31, it was a lineup change by coach Steve Kerr that made the difference. He took the floundering Andrew Bogut out of the starting lineup and inserted Andre Iguodala, who had started every game of his career until this year, which saw him come off the bench every night. He scored 22 points, grabbed 8 rebounds, and was very possibly the best player on the floor, outplaying King James.