Category: MLB

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Why Aces Aren’t Worth the Assets: A History Lesson and an Explanation

As you’ve heard, the trading market for pitchers, especially of the starting variety, is going to be very active at this year’s trading deadline.  The most frequently mentioned names (among others) have been Cole Hamels, Johnny Cueto, David Price, and Jeff Samardzija.  Contending teams such as the Blue Jays, Yankees, and Astros, all of which are in need of starting pitching, will certainly take long, hard looks at all of the pitchers listed above.  However, there are a multitude of starting pitchers who, even though they aren’t aces, could really help teams, especially in October.

To be clear, I believe that the problem with trading in baseball is that teams look at certain players as must-have commodities.  Look at what the Oakland A’s surrendered to acquire Jon Lester on deadline day last season.  They gave the Red Sox Yoenis Cespedes and a draft pick in the 2015 Draft’s Competitive Balance Round B.  The Red Sox then capitulated that pick to the Dodgers when they signed Hanley Ramirez this past season.  The A’s got Lester and Jonny Gomes, a power-hitting left fielder with a career .242 batting average.  While Lester performed admirably in the last two months of the season, he went to the Cubs in the winter.  Gomes fled for Atlanta.  Both are out of Oakland after a fleeting two months with the organization.

While Cespedes was dealt by the Red Sox to the Tigers in December, the trade freed up the Bo-Sox enough to get Ramirez.  The Red Sox are the team that got the better of the deal, even if neither team kept any of their assets.

My point is, front offices shouldn’t make deals because they think they absolutely have to get somebody.  This feeling of necessity burned the A’s because they didn’t need pitching; they needed offense.  So the way they tried to fix the problem was to deal Cespedes, their best offensive player.  They didn’t need the pitching because in addition to already having solid starting pitching in the form of Sonny Gray, Scott Kazmir, and Jesse Chavez, they had traded for former Cubs Jason Hammel and Jeff Samardzija on July 5.

About that trade: the A’s gave up much more in that deal than in the Lester trade.  The main piece the Cubs acquired in that trade was second baseman Addison Russell, who, even though he is hitting only .231 in his first season in the majors, is an amazing defensive infielder.  He is also a starter on a Cubs team that is currently in the second Wild Card spot in the National League.  Russell just so happens to be 21 years old with a lot of room to improve.

Oakland also gave up Dan Straily in that trade.  Straily, a starting pitcher, was sent to AAA by the Cubs.  In January, he was traded to the Astros for Dexter Fowler, who is now the Cubbies’ starting center fielder.  Billy McKinney, a AA outfielder, was also in the deal.  Now, take a guess: where is Samardzija now?  On the South Side of Chicago, pitching for the White Sox.  And Hammel?  Back with the Cubs, and having the best year of his career in the process.

Another outcome of the carnage resulting from the deals: someone had to be sent down to AAA.  That someone was Tommy Milone, and he was traded to the Twins for Sam Fuld on July 31.  Fuld is still with the A’s, but has hit .210 and .207 the last two seasons, respectively. Milone is also having the best season of his career, helping the Twins into position to potentially make the playoffs for the first time since 2010.

Did I mention that Oakland was 54-33, the best record in baseball, when they traded for Samardzija and Hammel?  And that on July 31, they were 66-41 which, at that time, was… the best record in baseball? Finally, did I forget to bring up the fact that, after July 31, the Oakland Athletics went 22-33, finishing the season 88-74 and locked up in the Wild Card game in Kansas City against the Royals?

In that game, Oakland was up 7-3 going to the bottom of the eighth, and, in a cruel twist of irony, Lester ran out of gas, a la Pedro Martinez in Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS.  The lead was down to 7-6 with one innings to play.  In the bottom of the ninth, closer Sean Doolittle gave up the one-run lead on a Nori Aoki sacrifice fly.  The game went to 12 innings, and, with the A’s up (again) 8-7, Dan Otero was brought on to close it out.

In more irony, with one out and no one on base, Eric Hosmer hit a line drive that got past Gomes.  A single became a triple, and Hosmer scored the tying run on a Christian Colon single.  Otero would be replaced by Abad, and after getting Alex Gordon to pop out, was relieved by Hammel.  Colon stole second, and, with the winning run 180 feet away, Salvador Perez hit a ground ball down the third base line that got past Josh Donaldson and stayed fair.  The A’s were gone.

So, to recap: they traded their future shortstop (Russell) for two pitchers (Samardzija and Hammel, neither of whom are on the team anymore), dealt their best hitter (Cespedes) for a pitcher and utility outfielder (Lester and Gomes), and dealt the odd-man-out starter who is turning out to be a real weapon for a postseason-contending team (Milone) for a mendoza-line hitting defensive outfielder (Fuld).  This is the cautionary tale, and certain teams in the history of baseball have had the deadline down pat (See: late 90s Yankees).  But this is what happens when front office executives sharpen their focus on one, two, or even three players; they move heaven and earth to get those guys and once they do, the acquired players don’t stay with the team.  And, to boot, the A’s helped lay the groundwork for the very successful 2015 Cubs’ season.

So that was our history lesson.  Now, let’s bring it back to this season.

Yesterday, Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs wrote a very interesting article about teams that traded for aces.  It prompted me to write this one, and you can read all of it here, but this is the most interesting excerpt from it:

Through this method, I found 22 trades that were made by 21 teams. If that’s a little confusing, it’s because last year’s Oakland Athletics added front-line starters in two separate deals — adding Jeff Samardzija and then Jon Lester. I don’t want to bias by double-counting. Of the 21 teams that added good starters, 17 advanced beyond the end of the regular season. Two were eliminated in single-game eliminations. Nine were eliminated in the division series. Four were eliminated in the championship series. Two lost the World Series. Which means that none of the teams actually won the World Series.

It’s not that World Series-winning teams haven’t added starting pitchers. Last year’s Giants swung a midseason trade for Jake Peavy. But Peavy wound up with a below-average FIP and an average ERA. When championship teams have added starters, they’ve been of the second- and third-tier varieties. The teams adding the big guys have made some noise, but of late they haven’t hoisted a trophy.

When you’re selling a front-line starter, you’re selling the idea that said starter could carry a team through October. Look at what Madison Bumgarner just did. It’s an appealing thought, and it’s founded in truth. But you can look at last season for counter-evidence. Neither Samardzija nor Lester could save the A’s, which lost a one-game playoff in which Lester got the ball. After the Tigers added David Price, they went on to get swept in the first round. Go back further: The Angels missed the playoffs entirely despite picking up Zack Greinke. Two years in a row, Cliff Lee joined a series-bound team and lost. Maybe the ultimate addition was Randy Johnson to the Houston Astros, in 1998. Houston lost the NLDS, 3-1.

Okay, so if trading for aces is historically a move that doesn’t work, why do teams always fall into this trap?  Again, it goes back to teams thinking that they have to get a certain player; they don’t.  They just delude themselves into thinking that they do.

This season, there will be at least one team that overpays for Hamels, Cueto, or Price.  Every village has its idiot, and baseball is no different.  However, some of the other available pitchers on the market could really help teams, maybe even more than the so-called “aces”.

Some of these less heralded pitchers are Mat Latos, Dan Haren, Yovani Gallardo, and Tyson Ross, just to name a few.  Let’s start with Latos.

Even though he is 4-6 with a 4.48 ERA this season, some of the other numbers tell a different story with Mat Latos.  His FIP (fielding-independent pitching) is 3.32, which is more than a point lower than his ERA.  He’s pitched for the Marlins for the first half of this season, and that surely has not helped.  The defense played behind him could not have helped his ERA, either.  However, according to at least one insider, he may not be worth the trouble:

So even though Latos may be a headache in the clubhouse, he is definitely worth it on the field.  A change of scenery may be something that helps his pitching, as the Marlins have been a losing team all season.  Going to a winner may change the game for him, and if history is any indication, he can get it done.  In back to back years (2012 and 2013), he hurled over 200 innings for the Reds, and in both of those years, they made the playoffs.  If he goes to a contender, he could muster a similar performance.

The next, somewhat underrated pitcher who will probably be moved this late July is Dan Haren.  He’s on his fifth team in as many years, and he’s most likely about to be on his sixth.  While he has never been an ace, he’s a pitcher that can give a team a chance to win every time he steps on the mound.  While his FIP (4.31) is noticeably higher than his ERA (3.46) this season, he can be a stabilizing force for a starting rotation in need of consistency, like the Astros or Blue Jays.

Tyson Ross of the Padres is another pitcher on a losing team that can help a winner get over the edge.  This report came across from ESPN’s Buster Olney yesterday:

Even if Ross doesn’t go to a winning team, he can still provide great value at the front of a starting rotation.  While it may not appear that he’s having as good a year as he did in his breakout campaign last year, the numbers beg to differ.  While his BB/9 is up along with is ERA, his FIP, K/9, and HR/9 are all improved from last year.  His BABIP against him is .332, up 31 points from last season.  While it may not look like he is having as good of a season as he did in 2014, he is. Luck just hasn’t been on his side, at all.

Finally, the non-ace pitcher who may be most tantalizing for teams is the Rangers’ Yovani Gallardo.  He is having the best season of his career, and while luck has been on his side (his FIP is 78 points higher than his ERA), he will still be very valuable for teams looking for a front-line starter.  Unlike the other, underrated pitchers, a team overpaying for Gallardo based on this year alone is likely.  However, that doesn’t mean he won’t do really well in a new environment.

All told, the only ace on the trade market worth mortgaging the future for is the Tigers’ David Price.  Cueto may be worth it, but his FIP has been higher than his ERA in every year of his MLB career.  Hamels’ career numbers are remarkably similar to those of Latos, and yet he will be valued more by desperate teams looking for an ace. Samrdzija’s numbers are not very good this season (ERA over 4), but he’ll be coveted on the market, even though I’d value him about the same as I would value Haren.

Even though the “aces” aren’t much better than their less heralded counterparts, desperate teams will give up their future prospects and other talent just for one pitcher.  However, none of the teams that do this will win the World Series.  Why?

Because aces just aren’t worth the assets.

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Making Sense of Zack Greinke

 

Zack Greinke made his first start coming out of the All-Star break on Sunday against the Nationals.  Coming into his most recent start, he had not allowed a run in 35 2/3 innings, drawing comparisons to the scoreless streaks of Dodger greats Don Drysdale and Orel Hershiser. However, Greinke would be facing the toughest test of his run, as the Nationals rank the highest in baseball in runs scored out of the teams he has faced during the streak.  So how would Greinke respond?

By tossing eight scoreless innings, allowing just three hits, and not letting a runner get into scoring position all day.

With the results of Sunday’s start, Greinke’s scoreless spell stretched to 43 2/3 innings.  And while he has to pitch another 15 1/3 scoreless innings to tie the record set by Hershiser in 1988, he has already made history, via ESPN Stats and Info:

So, thinking this way, I did some comparisons between Greinke and Hershiser.  I didn’t compare Greinke to Don Drysdale for one simple reason: Drysdale pitched his scoreless streak in 1968 on the 15-foot high pitcher’s mound, while Greinke has pitched his on one that is only 10 feet off the ground.

This is (I think) the most interesting tidbit I found about Hershiser’s 1988: he gave up 73 walks.  This means that in 34 starts, Hershiser allowed over two walks per game.  During the streak, Hershiser walked eleven batters over the course of his 59 innings, as opposed to his walking 73 over the course of a whopping 267 innings that season. Here is a table I made of Hershiser’s stats during the streak (Note: the August 30 game vs the Expos is the last four innings of his start.  He allowed two runs in the first five innings of that game.)

Date/Opponent IP H BB K
August 30, 1988 vs Expos 4 1 2 4
September 5, 1988 vs Braves 9 4 1 8
September 10, 1988 vs Reds 9 7 3 8
September 14, 1988 vs Braves 9 6 2 8
September 19, 1988 vs Astros 9 4 0 5
September 23, 1988 vs Giants 9 5 2 2
September 28, 1988 vs Padres 10 4 1 3
TOTAL 59 31 11 38

Now, here is a look at Greinke’s streak on a start-by-start basis:

Date/Opponent IP  H BB K
June 18, 2015 vs Rangers 7 4 0 8
June 23, 2015 vs Cubs 6 3 2 5
June 28, 2015 vs Marlins 7.2 4 1 6
July 4, 2015 vs Mets 7 4 0 4
July 9, 2015 vs Phillies 8 1 0 8
July 20, 2015 vs Nationals 8 3 1 11
TOTAL 43.2 19 4 42

On the surface, it looks like Greinke’s numbers are more impressive than Orel’s.  However, there are a couple of things to pay attention to when comparing the two.

The first thing I noticed when comparing the two is the distance that both pitchers went in their respective games during their streaks. While Greinke has not thrown any complete games over his last six scoreless starts, Hershiser went nine (or more) in every start during his streak.  Sure, the game has changed quite a lot since 1988, but Hershiser never needed the help of his bullpen to finish games; he completed them himself.

Here’s another thing: Greinke’s numbers may appear more impressive than Hershiser’s, but this is not necessarily the case.  The “Zack Attack” is on pace to allow less hits and walks than the Bulldog did, and Greinke has already passed Hershiser’s strikeout total. However, Hershiser is still more impressive in this regard because he had more baserunners, and subsequently jams, to navigate his way out of.  While Orel’s streak reaching 59 innings may have been partially a figure of luck, Greinke allowing so few baserunners over the last 43 2/3 innings has to be because of luck, too.

Greinke has had lots and lots of luck during his run.  Jeff Sullivan at FanGraphs wrote about this yesterday:

Sorry, but, duh. It’s always there. Zack Greinke’s true talent isn’t a 0.00 ERA. It is a very low ERA, but it is not the lowest possible ERA. Consider that Greinke has allowed just 19 hits, facing 152 batters. Not a single fly ball has left the yard. When there have been runners in scoring position, hits have been further suppressed. Luck doesn’t always look like a line drive being snared at full extension — sometimes luck is just a batter taking a worse swing than usual at a hittable pitch. Luck is always present, in all forms. Greinke’s been the recipient of more good than bad.

One particular manifestation: the opponents. Greinke just shut down the Nationals, who’ve been hurt pretty bad by injuries. The start before that, he faced the Phillies, and the start before that, he faced the Mets. Going back still, there were the Marlins, without Giancarlo Stanton. And there were the Cubs, and it all started against the Rangers, but against the Rangers in a National League ballpark, so they didn’t play Prince Fielder. They didn’t have Adrian Beltre or Josh Hamilton. It’s been a kind slate. This isn’t to take anything away from the achievement — it’s just, the stars have been aligned, so to speak.

The stars have been aligned.  While Greinke’s run has been incredible and we haven’t seen anything like it in a long time, it couldn’t have happened without luck playing a big role.  Between the schedule, the stadiums he’s pitched in, and the lineups he’s faced, a scoreless streak was there for the taking, if Greinke was up to it.  And he has been.

Everything being said, I’m not trying to take away from what Greinke has done.  He’s been absolutely dominant over his last six starts, and there’s no question who the best pitcher in baseball is this season. But until he reaches 59 scoreless innings, there will always be one streak eclipsing Greinke’s in dominance.  That streak belongs to Orel Hershiser.

Take that, Zack.

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Don’t Stop Believing: The San Francisco Giants Have a Chance

The year is 2015; you probably are keenly aware to this fact, unless you either have been living under a rock or are Andre Dawson.

Anyway, 2015 has been a pretty big year in our country to date. Marriage equality was legalized nationwide, American Pharoah won the Horse Racing Triple Crown, Brian Williams made up some things, and the U.S. Women’s Soccer Team won the World Cup.  You want to know what else 2015 has been, and still is?  An odd-numbered year.

And odd-numbered years typically spell doom for the San Francisco Giants.

Here are the results for the Giants from the last three odd-numbered seasons.  The 2011 and 2013 seasons are those in which the Giants were coming off of World Series victories:

  1. 2009: 88-74, 2nd place NL West, missed Playoffs
  2. 2011: 86-76, 2nd place NL West, missed Playoffs
  3. 2013: 76-86, T-3rd place NL West, missed Playoffs

And here are the results from the last three even numbered years:

  1. 2010: 92-70, won NL West, won World Series
  2. 2012: 94-68, won NL West, won World Series
  3. 2014: 88-74, won NL Wild Card, won World Series

The Giants have become what is easily the most bizarre dynasty in sports.  They have been an October dynasty in even-numbered years and a middle-of-the-road team in odd-numbered years.

So how have the Giants done this year?  Not too badly, actually. They’re 47-43 after defeating the Diamondbacks 6-5 in 12 innings last night.  This, along with a Cubs loss to the Braves, leaves San Fran just one game back of the second and final Wild Card spot in the National League.  Statistically, they are not faring too badly, especially compared to last year.

They rank 11th in baseball in runs scored this season; interestingly enough, they only ranked 12th in the league in that category last year. As you are aware, I like to use a stat called BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) as a barometer of future hitting success.  The Giants’ BABIP this season is .319, which is third in baseball.  This may very well go down, as their BABIP last season was .304, which was 10th in baseball.  However, out of the nine teams ahead of them in this category, exactly zero of them got to their respective League Championship Series.

The Giants were not an overly impressive home run hitting team a year ago, hitting just 132 of them, short of the league average of 140. This season, they’ve hit 72 through 90 games, and they’re on pace for just 130 this time around.  Is being a below average home run hitting team a hindrance in October?  Not really.  Last season, the Orioles ranked first in the league in home runs, and made it to the ALCS doing so.  However, the Cardinals and Royals were 29th and last in the league, respectively, and they were both one of the last four teams standing, too.  It’s not a huge deal.

How they do win at the plate is with a high batting average.  They hit .255 as a team last season, and this is significant because all of the last four teams standing at the end of last season were above the league average of .253.  They’re hitting .272 this season, which is tied for second in the game.  Statistically, they stack up as a team that can make some noise in October… if they make it there.

Now, let’s take a look at their lineup on an individual basis.  While Buster Posey and Joe Panik have been the most consistent hitters on the team, the best offseason addition for the team has assuredly been outfielder Nori Aoki.  He’s hitting .317 with a .383 on-base percentage and a .333 BABIP.  He also has a 5.8% strikeout percentage, which is the lowest K% in baseball.  While Aoki has been valuable, he has also been out of the lineup since June 20 with an injury to his right fibula. Getting him back soon will be crucial to the Giants postseason hopes, and according to CBSSports.com, he’s coming back in two weeks.

However, the obvious MVP of this team and one of the best players in the game today is Buster Posey.  He leads the team in all the major statistical categories and can be considered a National League MVP candidate.  He’s even been compared to Johnny Bench, writes Matt Kawahara of the Sacramento Bee:

At age 21

Bench: Batted .293 with 26 home runs and 90 RBIs for the Reds, finishing 13th in the N.L. MVP race and making his second All-Star team.

Posey: Won the Johnny Bench Award, given to college baseball’s top catcher, in his junior year at Florida State.

They catch and pitch

Bench: Longtime spokesman for Krylon paint: “No runs, no drips, no errors.”

Posey: Appears in recent Esurance commercial in full catcher’s gear, ready to help a woman deliver her baby: “I’m sort of your doctor. We both wear gloves, and we both deliver in the clutch.”

Bench comparisons aside, Posey is exactly what you think he is: the best catcher in baseball and the best player on the team.

But the part of the Giants lineup, and particularly their defense, that may very well be most important to their playoff aspirations is the middle infield.  With over .300 hitter Joe Panik at second and defensive ace Brandon Crawford at short, the combination has benefited both the team’s defense as well as its hitting.  They might be the most important players on the team, writes David Schoenfield of ESPN:

The middle infield pair made the All-Star team and deservedly so. Both have added power — Crawford ranks 11th in the NL in extra-base hits, while Panik has more than Troy Tulowitzki,Buster Posey or Justin Upton — to go with their excellent defense. The Giants’homegrown infield has been huge because the rotation has been a weakness.Matt Cain and Jake Peavy have returned from the DL, but you don’t know what to expect from them. The offense will have to lead the Giants back to the postseason.

The Giants are doing it differently this year, but with Crawford, Panik, Posey and a healthy Aoki, they could be back in the Postseason.

As for the rotation?  It hasn’t been quite as good as it was last season. Tim Lincecum had been pitching slightly better than he did last season, but he got hit on the arm with a line drive on June 27 and it is unclear when he will return to the team.  Madison Bumgarner’s numbers have been somewhat worse this season (his ERA has jumped from 2.98 to 3.33), but he’s still been very valuable to the team, and if his October performance from last season is any indication, he can really turn it on come playoff time.

Another solid pitcher in the rotation this season has been 27-year old rookie Chris Heston.  Heston was supposed to be simply a fill-in for injured starter Matt Cain, but he has performed more than well enough to stay in the rotation full-time.  His numbers are remarkably similar to MadBum’s this season, and he has really been the Giants’ 1-A pitcher in the rotation.  However, his emergence has caused issues in the rotation with the returns of Cain, Jake Peavy, and Tim Hudson.

As Andrew Baggarly of Giants Extra documents, Bruce Bochy has apparently made his decision in terms of who to take out of the rotation:

With Tim Hudson set to be activated to start Monday at San Diego and Chris Heston retaining his place in the rotation on Tuesday, Bochy said he intends to use Ryan Vogelsong in a long relief role.

That didn’t go so well for Vogelsong in April, when he allowed five runs and a whopping 19 baserunners in 5 2/3 innings over two relief outings.

“More than anything, he’s got to be patient,” Bochy said. “Learn from this last experience. Get that out of his head and be ready to go at any time.”

Vogelsong has been better than Hudson as a starter this season, with a better ERA, WAR, and K/9.  This is probably not the right decision even with Hudson in his last season, but who am I to doubt a manager who has won three out of the last five World Series?  He knows what he’s doing.  Most (future) Hall of Fame managers do.

The bullpen has been generally good and Santiago Casilla has performed well in the closer’s role.  If baseball history has taught us anything, it’s that closing out games is pretty darn important.

However, at the end of each World Series clincher the Giants have won, there has been a different pitcher on the mound to close it out (2010: Brian Wilson, 2012: Sergio Romo, 2014: Bumgarner).  But their bullpen is good enough to survive, and it will do so if it gets to October.

Here is the thing with the Giants: they probably still have a chance to win the division.  They’re only four games back of the first-place Dodgers, and while they only have three games left against Los Angeles, there is still a lot of baseball left to be played.  But, let’s say they are left to contending for the last Wild Card spot with the Cubs and Mets.  To be honest, I don’t think either team has enough to make the playoffs, especially in the superior National League.

So, if the Giants get the final spot, they will be locked in the Wild Card game with either the Pirates or Cardinals.  It’s fairly apparent that both of those teams are better than the Giants, but one of them will be stuck hosting the one-game playoff.  And, in a single game, to decide two teams’ playoff fates, with Bumgarner on the hill?  Anything can happen in that scenario.

The Giants have a chance, even in this, an odd-numbered year.  They may very well make the playoffs this year, and even if they don’t, we may be able to put the curse of the odd numbers to bed.

But hold on to that feeling, Giants fans: your team has a chance.

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Corey Kluber Is the Unluckiest Pitcher in Baseball

There are two pitchers on the same team, in the same starting rotation.  Pitcher A is second in baseball in innings pitched and third in the league in strikeouts.  Pitcher B has a 4.07 ERA and 35 less strikeouts than Pitcher A.  Pitcher B has only thrown 108.1 innings, a whole 25 innings short of Pitcher A’s innings total.  However, here is the twist: Pitcher A is 4-10.  Pitcher B is 10-7.

Pitcher B is the Cleveland Indians’ Carlos Carrasco.  Pitcher A is Indians’ ace and defending Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber.

Kluber pitched eight innings against the A’s on Sunday, giving up only two runs on just four hits.  However, he was the hard-luck loser (again) as the Tribe were shut out on two hits.  This has become a trend in Kluber’s starts, according to ESPN Stats and Info:

Yowzers.  The Indians offense has not been great this season (t-21st in runs scored, 20th in batting average) but the lack of run support it has given Kluber is startling.

Kluber’s numbers, as well as his season to date, should be an exposé to a simple fact: win-loss record is not important.  To demonstrate my point, I’ll give you a list of pitchers with better records than Kluber but far worse Earned Run Averages:

  1. Jeremy Guthrie, KC (7-5, 5.36 ERA)
  2. Drew Hutchison, TOR (8-2, 5.33 ERA)
  3. Colby Lewis, TEX (8-4, 4.77 ERA)
  4. Nathan Eovaldi, NYY (9-2, 4.50 ERA)

So how do they stack up with other pitchers with better ERAs and less impressive win-loss records?  Well…

  1. Shelby Miller, ATL (5-5, 2.38 ERA)
  2. Yovani Gallardo, TEX (7-8, 2.68 ERA)
  3. Wei-Yin Chen, BAL (4-5, 2.78 ERA)
  4. Francisco Liriano, PIT (5-6, 2.98 ERA)
  5. Corey Kluber, CLE (4-10, 3.38 ERA)

However, Kluber is not going to get the national attention he deserves; while he is still having a great season, win-loss record will be the only thing that matters when it comes to Kluber’s Cy Young Award chances.  Here are the last ten Cy Young winners from Kluber’s league, the American League.

  1. 2005: Bartolo Colon, LAA (21-8, 3.48 ERA)
  2. 2006: Johan Santana, MIN (19-6, 2.77 ERA)
  3. 2007: CC Sabathia, CLE (19-7, 3.21 ERA)
  4. 2008: Cliff Lee, CLE (22-3, 2.54 ERA)
  5. 2009: Zack Grienke, KC (16-8, 2.16 ERA)
  6. 2010: Felix Hernandez, SEA (13-12, 2.27 ERA)
  7. 2011: Justin Verlander, DET (24-5, 2.40 ERA)
  8. 2012: David Price, TB (20-5, 2.56 ERA)
  9. 2013: Max Scherzer, DET (21-3, 2.90 ERA)
  10. 2014: Corey Kluber, CLE (18-9, 2.44 ERA)

All of those pitchers have a positive W-L record.  Not that Kluber is going to or should win the award this year; Sonny Gray, Chris Sale, Dallas Keuchel and others are far, far more deserving.  But Kluber was assuredly deserving of making the All-Star team, and it’s a shame that one of the best pitchers in baseball was denied a spot in the game because of his record.

MLB.com Indians reporter Jordan Bastian wrote about this last week:

In 11 of Kluber’s 17 starts, Cleveland’s offense has scored two or fewer runs. The four runs he received while the pitcher of record Thursday were the most he’s had to work with since the lineup spotted him five runs May 28. Entering his start against Tampa Bay, Kluber’s 2.28 run support average was the worst rate in the Majors among qualified starting pitchers.
That has played a large role in Kluber’s win-loss record.

When it comes to peripheral statistics, it could be argued that Kluber has performed as one of the top five starting pitchers in the Majors. With his performance against the Rays, Kluber moved into a tie with White Sox ace Chris Sale for the most strikeouts (141) in baseball. The righty also ranked second in baseball in innings (118 2/3), third in WAR (3.5, per Fangraphs.com), fourth in strikeouts per nine innings (10.69) and sixth in strikeout-to-walk ratio (5.88).

Kluber is one of the top five pitchers in baseball.  Some other stats also support this statement.

In a statistic called FIP (fielding-independent pitching), Kluber ranks fourth in the Bigs at 2.51; this is in sharp contrast to his real ERA, 3.38.  This stat is used to isolate defense and luck from the player’s actual pitching.  It shows that were it not for bad luck and some shoddy defense, Kluber would be seen by everyone as one of the best pitchers in the game, which he obviously is.

Another stat that is very similar to FIP is xFIP (expected fielding independent pitching).  It is basically what we would expect a player’s fielding independent ERA to be over the course of a season.  Kluber’s xFIP is almost as spectacular as his FIP; it’s 2.66, which is fifth in baseball.  His xFIP is not much different than his FIP, which means that his excellence is sustainable.  He is clearly one of the best pitchers in the game.

Finally, the most simple stat that demonstrates how stealthily good Kluber has been is WAR.  WAR stands for “wins above replacement” and it is a figure of how replacing Kluber with someone else in the starting rotation would go.  Kluber’s WAR is 3.9, good for third among pitchers in the game.  The first and second best pitchers by WAR are Max Scherzer and Chris Sale, my choices for the Cy Young Award from each league.

By now, you probably get my drift; Corey Kluber is the most underrated (and least fortunate) pitcher in baseball. He is probably one of the top ten pitchers in the game, and even though his record does not give him the credit he deserves, all of his other statistics do.  He had better luck last year in his Cy Young campaign, and even though he isn’t having the same luck he did last year, that shouldn’t take away from the job he has done this season.

The only thing is, he’s the unluckiest pitcher in baseball.

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The National League MVP Debate is Not a Clown Question, Bro

With baseball entering the second half of the season this week, I’m going to take a look at the debate over who should be the MVP in the senior circuit.  The debate has mainly become about two players: Nationals OF Bryce Harper and Diamondbacks 1B Paul Goldschmidt. Harper is a slightly better power hitter than Goldschmidt, but Goldschmidt is a better base-stealer and hitter for average. The debate over this topic has been a very interesting one, but everyone, and I mean everyone has Harper winning the award by a wide margin.  Among them is Grantland baseball writer Jonah Keri:

When we checked in on Harper at the season’s quarter-way mark, he was both the runaway winner for NL MVP and in the midst of a historic season unmatched by any 22-year-old not named Ted Williams.

His second quarter has been punctuated by a couple of health scares. The first was downright terrifying, as Harper’s knee buckled when he tried to make a throw during a June 18 game against the Rays. That injury proved to be nothing more than a left hamstring strain, and Harper returned to the lineup two days later. Then, a week after that, Harper sat out three straight games — this time with a right hamstring strain — and returned on June 28.

Despite the two hamstring-induced starts and stops, the prognosis on Harper’s health remains positive, and he’s been an absolute monster when he’s been in the lineup. In the 56 plate appearances since that initial strain, he’s hit three homers and six doubles and posted a .340/.446/.660 line. With apologies to Paul Goldschmidt, Todd Frazier, and everyone else, this one isn’t particularly close: Harper has been the clear first-half NL MVP, and it’s his award to lose as we move forward.

I’ll tell you how I got to thinking about this debate.  I was talking to a friend of mine about it, and he said that Harper was the unquestioned MVP.  (His name is Danny Blomster, he’s a sabermetric genius, and you can check out his blog here.)  Anyhow, I championed the argument for Goldschmidt, beings that he is on a worse team and, while he hits in a better lineup than Harper, hits for a starting rotation whose best pitcher this season has been Robbie Ray.  My friend pulled out some sabermetric stats that supported the case for Harper, like his slugging percentage, OPS, and others.  So I looked at Goldschmidt and Harper, side-by-side, sabermetrically.  Here’s what I found.

Harper has a slightly higher on-base percentage (.471) than Goldschmidt (.466). If you take into account a stat called wOBA (weighted on-base average), Harper really begins to separate himself, as his wOBA is .490 to Goldy’s .452.  However, wOBA does not take into account intentional walks and stolen bases, and this is important. Goldschmidt has nineteen intentional walks to The Chosen One’s eight; the former’s total is tops in baseball.  Pitchers do not want to pitch to him, and that is why he has been intentionally walked so much.  Goldschmidt also has sixteen stolen bases to The Phenom’s four; he is trying to create runs for his team.

Many are voting for Harper based on his all around game.  That and the fact that he, you know, murders baseballs:

For most baseball fans, watching Bryce Harper play baseball is more aesthetically pleasing than watching Paul Goldschmidt play.  Fair enough; you get more home runs, and therefore more entertainment, out of watching Harper play.

However, another crucial advantage Goldschmidt has over Harper is in BABIP (Batting average on Balls in Play).  Goldschmidt’s .402 easily eclipses Harper’s .377.  For context, the average BABIP in the majors is .297, which means that the MVP candidates are really, really good. What does this mean?  It means Goldschmidt is a better pure hitter than Harper.  Luck does not play a role here, as Goldschmidt’s BABIP has been higher than Harper’s every year since 2012, Harper’s first in the league.  The sample size is plenty large enough.

Another interesting area of the debate is the K% (strikeout rate) and BB% (walk rate) of each player.  Goldschimdt wins here, but only slightly.  His K% is 19%, which is fractionally better than Harper’s 19.9 K%.  Both of those are actually around the league average of 20.1%, so both players are middle-of-the-road is this statistic.  Harper wins in BB% (19% to Goldschmidt’s 18.2%), but neither stat distinguishes one player as being better than the other.

Then there is the area of the game that can’t (or can) be quantified: coming up clutch.  As former Miami and NFL wide receiver Santana Moss once eloquently stated, “Big time players make big time plays in big time games.”

It’s no different in baseball.  With the presence of advanced stats in all sports, many have begun debunking the notion of “clutch”. However, whether you like it or not, it exists, as Russell Carleton of Fox’s “Just a Bit Outside” wrote last August:

Let’€™s clear a few things up. Clutch is not a result of having superior moral character, notwithstanding the plot of every sports movie. It is also not a guarantee that a hitter will always come through. My contention is a much more reserved one. Clutch is likely some combination of ability to deal with pressure combined with some particular change in approach, whether conscious or unconscious, that results in slight variations from what we might otherwise expect. For some, that change makes a hitter better and in some it makes him worse.

These analyses may not completely prove that clutch ability exists, but they do lay what I hope is a foundation for how we might continue the search. “€œClutch”€ is a way of saying that the situation matters because players are human. What we have here is an indicator that has reasonable (if not great) consistency across years, and it explains differences between players in how leverage affects them. More searching might find something with more consistency. Even then, year-to-year consistency is not the only way to establish that a measure is reflective of a player’€™s true talent level. Using a more tracking-based approach might help. Players can and do change, even within a season. There’€™s no reason clutch needs to be an enduring trait, rather than a state we can detect with some reliability. The rest is simply showing that the factor, whatever it is, can explain some of the differences between players’€™ performances in different leverage situations.

Clutch is actually a stat.  It is not one that can be sutained over time or predicted in the future, but it does well to describe a player’s past performance.  According to the Fangraphs.com version of the stat, Goldschmidt’s clutch rating in 2015 is 0.7, which, according to the site, is “above average”.  Meanwhile, Harper’s clutch rating is -1.41, and that is considered “poor”.  These numbers are not presented in the spirit that they will not change, but they have been telling through the first half of the season.  For context, the top two clutch hitters of all time, according to Fangraphs, are Tony Gwynn and Pete Rose; one of these players is in the Hall of Fame, and the other should be.  The third most statistically clutch hitter ever?  Scott Fletcher, a .262 career hitting middle infielder who played for six different teams over a 16-year career.  Clutch is not perfect, but it could be that stat that thinks that Jhonny Peralta is a better defensive shortstop than Andrelton Simmons.

Goldschmidt can also be considered a clutch player without statistical assistance, as SBNation Diamondbacks blog AZ Snake Pit writes:

It seems like every time the Diamondbacks need a little something extra, or a clutch hit, he’s there to deliver. The list of pitchers he’s traumatized is too long for this article, but even Tim Lincecum in his prime was no match.

And that ultimately is why Paul Goldschmidt is so weird: most of the time he’s not doing anything, maybe just hitting into a routine out or just hanging out at first base, but then he turns it on when it matters and BAM. Diamondbacks win. There is literally not comp for this type of player, because there is literally no other player that has ever done this, especially in baseball.

Isn’t it weird that a player would have a lot of mundane moments punctuated by moments of pure exhilaration? I’ve literally never seen that, have you???

Goldschmidt wins this category.  By a lot.  While clutch can be a volatile statistic, it does well to describe his performance this season, especially in comparison to Harper.  While clutch has its ups and downs, it does well here: it describes Goldschmidt as more of a clutch hitter than Harper.

Okay, so we’re now finished with the sabermatics sabermetrics of this debate.

Anyway, this discussion, as you can already tell, is extremely complicated.  Harper’s team has done better this season, record-wise (three games up on the Mets in the woeful NL East) , but it’s hard to argue that the Diamondbacks would be where they are right now (42-42) without Goldschmidt.  While Harper’s slugging percentage, OPS, and on-base percentage are better than Goldschmidt’s, I’m giving Goldschmidt the advantage.  The advantage for all of the above listed reasons, as well as a very simple one: the acronym MVP stands for “Most Valuable Player”.  If the award was for “Most Outstanding Player”, Harper would be the clear-cut winner.  But Goldschmidt has been more valuable for his team this season, and the stats demonstrate that.

Goldschmidt has the edge here.

All stats courtesy of fangraphs.com

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The Detroit Tigers May Be Finished Without Miguel Cabrera

In every full season of the stellar career of Miguel Cabrera, he has never played less than 148 games.  He has never been on the DL in his first 13 years in the majors.  Both of these are about to change after the events of Friday night, however.

With Cabrera on first base in the fourth inning and the score 1-0 in favor of the Tigers, Cabrera ran on a 3-2 pitch to Victor Martinez.  Cabrera pulled up lame between first and second and could not continue in the game.  It was later revealed that Cabrera suffered a Grade 3 Calf strain and is expected to miss six weeks.

The Tigers, manager Brad Ausmus, and Cabrera himself knew that the injury was bad, according to Craig Calcaterra of NBC Sports’ “Hardball Talk”:

When Cabrera came out of last night’s game with a calf strain you knew it had to be serious. Cabrera has played hurt in the past. He’s played injured in the past. He’s played when he probably shouldn’t have more times than I can count. But short of him literally missing a limb you never expect him to come out of a game.

That’s when Brad Ausmus knew it was bad, well before the MRI results showing a grade-3 calf strain came back.

“When Miggy says he can’t play, it’s serious, because Miggy plays through anything,” Ausmus said this morning. But he won’t be playing though this. Ausmus said he’s still waiting on a second opinion, but he doesn’t expect it to be any better. “I looked at the MRI. You can ask me about it,” Ausmus said. But even Dr. Ausmus is resigned to the fact that the best hitter in baseball will be out six weeks. And as he sat and spoke to the media this morning, he made it clear that the Tigers’ options are limited.

Alex Avila will get the start today, but he has played only three career games at first base. And, Ausmus reminded us, he was just activated from the disabled list himself. He’s worried enough about Avila playing back-to-back games at the position he knows, let alone one that’s mostly unfamiliar.

The Tigers are going to have a very hard time replacing Miggy for one simple reason: he is the best hitter in baseball.  He leads the game in three statistical categories: batting average (.350), on-base percentage (.456) and OPS (1.034).  J.D. Martinez leads the team in home runs, but Cabrera leads the team in the aforementioned categories, as well as hits and RBI.

While the Tigers rank first in baseball in batting average (.277), much of that success is due to Cabrera’s presence.  They also lead the league in hits (761) and on-base percentage (.335), but Cabrera leads the team in all of these categories.

So where does this leave the Tigers in the AL Central race? Answer: much worse than they already are.  With last night’s win, they moved to 40-39, but they are still 6 games back of the division-leading Kansas City Royals.  The Cleveland Indians have come on strong this week as well, and after a 5-game winning streak they are only two games back of Detroit.

In a crowded Wild Card race, the Tigers are only 1.5 games behind the all-important second Wild Card spot.  However, there are seven teams with 1.5 games of the Wild Card, and without Cabrera, the Tigers could be left in the dust.

The Tigers have two more games left with the Blue Jays this weekend.  Their next two series, with three games in Seattle against the Mariners and four in Minnesota to play the Twins, will be crucial heading into the All-Star break.  This is dire straits for the Tigers right about now, and they do not have the easiest schedule heading into the break.

The Tigers absolutely have to hit and score runs, as the pitching staff ranks 25th in ERA (4.16) and 24th in batting average against (.262).  The only great starting pitcher they have had this season is David Price, and he is easily the best starter on the staff. Shane Greene was magnificent early in the season, but was recently sent down to to Triple-A because he was struggling mightily. Justin Verlander made his season debut on June 13 and has limped to a 5.09 ERA in 3 starts.  Alfredo Simon has done a solid job and Jake Ryan has been okay in 4 starts, but the rotation will continue to struggle.

All things considered, the Tigers are very lucky that Cabrera is not going to be out for a longer period of time.  The rehabilitation from the injury might take a long time, longer than Cabrera is supposed to be out for, because injuries to the calves need to be shut down to heal.  However, the Tigers need to get it together without Cabrera, and soon.

Their season will be sabotaged if they don’t.

 

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What’s Wrong with the Seattle Mariners?

Back in early April, when this blog was two days old, I did an MLB preview for this upcoming season.  You can read it here, but to save you the time, I picked the Mariners to win the World Series.  However, through almost three months of the season, it is looking less and less like the M’s will even reach the playoffs, as they are 34-41 and 8 games back of the first-place Astros.  So how did a team with so much talent and promise become one struggling to stay out of the division basement?

Let’s start with star 2B Robinson Cano.  In Robby’s first season in the Pacific Northwest, he hit .314 and had a .382 on-base percentage.  As a result of the Mariners having little support around him, he was intentionally walked 20 times, the fourth highest mark in baseball.  This year, however, has been a far different story.

2015’s version of Robby Cano is hitting .244 with a .281 on-base. And baseball analysts are concerned, according to an ESPN.com story by Jerry Crasnick:

Naturally, when the Yankees visited Seattle this week, the New York writers asked Cano if he regretted leaving the Bronx for the Pacific Northwest through free agency in 2013. Cano insisted he is happy in Seattle, but a lot of baseball people wonder if that’s true. Cano’s $240 million contract runs through 2023, so the Mariners better hope this is just a brief, forgettable blip in an otherwise distinguished career.

One MLB analyst still has faith Cano can get on a roll and hit .300 with lots of doubles, but he wonders if Cano’s power outage isn’t a sign of things to come. “He looks like he might be turning into Jose Vidro,” the analyst said.

Vidro played 12 seasons in the majors, 10 with the Expos/Nationals franchise.  In the years of 1999-2004, Vidro averaged 16.5 home runs per season and hit at or near .300 in each of those seasons.  However, in the last four years of his career from 2005-2008, Vidro averaged 6.8 home runs per year, and even though his batting average numbers stayed near the same in every year but ’08, he was never the same player.

The Mariners’ prized offseason acquisition was DH slugger Nelson Cruz.  He has been excellent, hitting 19 home runs and hitting over .300 in the process. He is not the problem with the lineup.  There are many other issues with it, though, that don’t involve Cruz at all.

The team planned on having 2011 rookie sensation Dustin Ackley play left field on a near everyday basis.  Let’s just say that hasn’t worked out.  Ackley is having what is by far the worst year of his career, hitting .199 and getting on base not even 26% of the time.  Ackley was recently put back at his original position (second base) to cover for an injured Cano. An excerpt out of this piece from Fansided site Emerald City Swagger explains Ackley’s trade value:

If the Mariners want to get anything for Ackley, then it’s in their best interest to be able to market him as a second baseman as well as an outfielder. If Cano needs another couple nights off, then maybe that’s all the better. Too bad this team has a million DHs or they could even get Ackley some non-emergency infield reps.

Ackley has recently been deposed from his left field perch because of his struggles at the dish.  His defense has been just fine, as he has not made any errors in the outfield this season.  Ackley even has a negative WAR this season, which, according to Baseball-Reference, means that he can be replaced. And he has been replaced.  Seth Smith, who is hitting better and is about the same caliber of defender as Ackley, has taken over left field recently and done just fine, as he hits .262 when he plays that position.

Mark Trumbo was acquired on June 3 to help the thoroughly struggling offense, but he has not helped the cause, either.  In 19 games in Seattle, he has hit .160 with an on-base percentage of .194.  He and Cruz occasionally switch between DH and Right Field, depending on who needs a day off from playing defense.  The Mariners need Trumbo to start producing, as the rest of the lineup has not done so and probably won’t.

The fact is obvious; the Mariners aren’t scoring. They rank tied for 28th in baseball in runs scored (253) and last in batting average (.232).  Short of making more moves to add bats, this probably won’t change.  The team recently fired hitting coach Howard Johnson and replaced him with franchise legend Edgar Martinez.  However, some covering the team do not think Martinez can turn the offense around. Among them are KPLU in Seattle’s Art Thiel:

“Everybody loves Edgar,” Thiel said. “That’s, really, I guess, all the motivation behind it.

“Edgar Martinez has never been a hitting coach or any kind of coach. So we don’t know whether he can convey the wisdom that he accumulated in a reasonable fashion.

“I am certain that Edgar is going to be respected by guys like Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz and, really, the young guys who all know the legend. But is he effective at communicating?

“So often, superstar players – and I would consider Edgar one of the greatest hitters in baseball history – can’t convey what they know. They understand it so instinctively that sometimes it’s hard to offer that up and get people to respond to it,” Thiel said.

I agree with the logic presented here.  Martinez was a great hitter in his time, but can he get the secrets to his success across to his hitters?  And how soon can he turn the lineup around, if he can at all?

The Mariners’ starting rotation has not been too much of a problem.  It hasn’t been great, either, but it isn’t the issue.  Felix Hernandez has ten wins and leads the starting rotation in ERA, at 3.24.  James Paxton has been good too, with a 3.70 ERA in just 10 starts.  The main issue with the starting rotation has been the absence of Hisashi Iwakuma, who is very possibly the team’s second best pitcher.  Iwakuma is close to return, but upon his return, it looks as if Seattle will have to send down one of their promising young pitchers in Roenis Elias or Mike Montgomery.

In the end, the Mariners still have a chance to win the division.  This is what the AL West standings looked like on this date last year, June 28th, 2014:

  1. Oakland Athletics 50-30
  2. Los Angeles Angels 45-34
  3. Seattle Mariners 43-38
  4. Texas Rangers 37-43
  5. Houston Astros 35-47

And this is what they looked like at the end of the season:

  1. Los Angeles Angels 98-64
  2. Oakland Athletics 88-74
  3. Seattle Mariners 87-75
  4. Houston Astros 70-92
  5. Texas Rangers 67-95

Oddly enough, the Mariners were 7.5 games back of first place at this time last year.  They are 8 games back now.  The point is that there is still time for them to make a run and win the division, especially if the Astros begin to taper off.  However, they have issues, ones that may not be able to be fixed this season.

There is a lot wrong with the Seattle Mariners.

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Royals Dominance or Doing Away with World Series Home-Field: Let’s Change Something About the MLB All-Star Game

On July 14, Major League Baseball will host the 86th playing of the MLB All-Star Game in Cincinnati, when the National League will face off against the Kansas City Royals American League.  The game will count for home-field advantage in the World Series, which is a joke, but we’ll get to that later.  This year’s game and it’s voting, in particular, are causing lots of controversy.  Take a look at the latest AL voting update and see if you notice anything that stands out:

Seven Royals.  The number of Royals in the lead at their positions has actually decreased from eight, as Eric Hosmer was passed in the balloting by Miguel Cabrera at first base.  The most ridiculous vote-getter from the Royals, however, resides at second base: Omar Infante.  He is hitting .236 this year, has just 22 RBI, and has just three walks as opposed to 36 strikeouts.  His fielding percentage ranks 15th in baseball at his position, so you can probably get my drift by now: he isn’t all-star game worthy.

Another issue with the All-Star game voting turning up blue is how important this game is.  It counts for home-field advantage in the World Series, and this is an issue that Commissioner Rob Manfred needs to fix, and soon.  If the league wants to have a fun event for fans to vote (35) times on and jam the ballots on their computers, that would not be the end of the world.  There is no denying that Royals fans have gotten the vote out for their players, but for a game that is so important, why are we leaving the vote to the fans?

ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark recently put out a proposal to try to fix baseball’s All-Star Game problem:

Keep the fan vote next year exactly as is. Continue to have the players vote, as they’ve done in the past. But once the votes are in, compare the two before announcing the teams.

If the fans and players are at least close to being on the same page, nothing changes. But if the player picked by the fans to start doesn’t finish in the top three of the players’ balloting, that should automatically veto the fans’ choice. In that case only, the players’ selection should start.

The only objection I heard to this idea, when I ran it past people in MLB, was a modification that would allow the fans’ choice to start if he’s in the top five — not the top three — of player balloting. That works for me, even though I’d prefer top three. What do you think?

I think that’s a great idea.  The people that actually know the game (the players) can have a veto card for the people that know the game less (the fans).  In reality, even though I complain about the fans voting for their players to play in and/or start the game, it would be very difficult to remove them from the process entirely.  They pay money to go to the ballpark, and their loyalty to the game should be rewarded in some way.

How about another thing fans are missing when doing their All-Star voting?  Oh yeah, voting for the best players.  If the All-Star Game is supposed to be about deciding home-field advantage in the World Series, then why are teams doing this?:

That’s excessive.  Not only are these teams avidly campaigning for their own players, they are even changing their Twitter names to #VoteRox or #Vote BlueJays, and etc.  All of these teams have done enough All-Star campaigning recently to do both Democrats and Republicans proud.

Another thing to notice with the Twitter stumping is that teams want their fans to vote for their players, who are not necessarily the best players in the league.  Fans and teams have lost sight of what the All-Star Game is about, or what it should be about: an exhibition of the game’s best players.  Even MLB has lost sight of this, as this tweet from earlier this month shows:

They aren’t exactly trying to sweep it under the rug: there will be many Royals at the All-Star Game.  If you click the link on the tweet, you get to a link that takes you to a story on that ballot update.  However, in the story, the voting rules are outlined:

Fans can cast their votes for starters at MLB.com and all 30 club sites — on their computers, tablets and smartphones — using the 2015 Esurance MLB All-Star Game Ballot until Thursday, July 2, at 11:59 p.m. ET. For the first time, voting is exclusively online, where fans may submit up to 35 ballots.
Fans may also receive the ballot by texting VOTE to 89269 (USA) or 101010 (Canada). Or text VOTA for a ballot in Spanish. Message and data rates may apply. Up to five messages. No purchase required. Reply STOP to cancel. Reply HELP for info.

35 times.  Why is baseball allowing its fans to vote 35 times when they know how easily the voting rules can be manipulated, as in the case of the Royals?  Take this execerpt from a USA Today piece reporting that MLB has been forced to cancel 60 to 65 million votes for the game because of the threat of fraudulent ballots being cast:

The concerns about fraud are especially high this year because Kansas City fans have voted nearly the entire Royals starting lineup in the All-Star Game. Royals fans say they just organized and mobilized well, and there is no chicanery involved.

I’m sure the league is fine with Eric Hosmer, one of the best young first basemen in the game, starting. The fact that Omar Infante, who is batting .227, could start at second base is more a cause for concern. Seeing eight Royals start the All-Star Game would be a fun gimmick, but in the end, wouldn’t you just be watching a Royals game?

I don’t want to insinuate that the Royals fan base did anything illegal or nefarious, but doesn’t it seem odd that that many ballots were discarded?

My opinion on all this is that baseball should not allow its fans to vote even close to 35 times.  They should be allowed to vote once, and that’s it.  If our elections in this country don’t allow people to vote more than once, why is baseball letting us do this? This game counts for something, and we’re letting it become the National League vs. the Royals?  This is bad for baseball, no matter what Commissioner Manfred or the league’s Public Relations staff may say.

Having this happen to a game that was once considered the “Midsummer Classic” is disgraceful. A game that once had great moments like Cal Ripken’s home run in his final All-Star Game in 2001, Bo Jackson “saying hello” in 1989, or Ted
Williams’ first pitch and the All-Century Team in 1999 does not deserve this ridiculousness.

I don’t blame Royals fans at all here.  They did a great job of “getting their puppies organized”, as Bill Raftery would say, and voting for their guys.  But a game that counts for home-field advantage in the World Series should not be subjected to this. As this article is being written, the Royals are leading their division and have the best winning percentage in the American League.  If they get to the World Series and lose a Game 7 on the road, that would be sad and ironic at the same time.

But it’s what they, and the game of baseball, deserve.

 

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Don’t Blame Jose Tabata for Max Scherzer Losing His Perfect Game

Saturday in baseball, Max Scherzer had a perfect game going through 8 2/3 innings.  It was his second straight other-worldly start in a row, as David Brown of CBS Sports points out:

Scherzer’s combined line over his past two starts: 18 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 26 strikeouts. He has retired 54 of the past 57 batters he has faced. His game score for June 14 computed to 100. Scherzer’s game score for his no-hitter Saturday: Just 97. The difference? Probably the strikeouts — he got 16 against the Brewers, and “just” 10 against the Pirates.

However, Scherzer would not get his no-hitter last Sunday and he would not get his perfect game on Saturday.  How he lost his perfect game, however, is a matter of controversy.

The Pirates were one out away from being held without a baserunner, and with the ninth spot in the batting order at the plate, they sent up career .276 hitter Jose Tabata to try to break up the perfect game and maybe even get a hit.  With the count 2-2 and Scherzer one strike away from completing his perfect game, this happened:

Tabata clearly leans into the pitch with his elbow. However, it’s not his fault that he broke up the perfect game, and here’s why: he should not have been awarded first base.  According to the official rules of baseball, Tabata should not have been awarded first base:

(b) He is touched by a pitched ball which he is not attempting to hit unless (1) The ball is in the strike zone when it touches the batter, or (2) The batter makes no attempt to avoid being touched by the ball;
If the ball is in the strike zone when it touches the batter, it shall be called a strike, whether or not the batter tries to avoid the ball. If the ball is outside the strike zone when it touches the batter, it shall be called a ball if he makes no attempt to avoid being touched.

It is clear that Tabata did not get out of the way of the ball as it came in.  It is also clear that Tabata actually made an active effort to get hit by the ball, as evidenced by his dropping his elbow as the ball drew near.  However, if anyone should be to blame for Tabata being awarded first base, it’s the umpires.

Not for nothing, but home plate umpire Mike Muchlinski was standing right there when it happened.  He could have easily made the call that Tabata did not try to get out of the way of the ball. The pitch was clearly out of the strike zone, so Muchlinski could have called him back to the box and made the count 3-2.

Also, if Muchlinski could not have realized from his view that Tabata dipped his elbow, why didn’t any of the other umpires consult with Muchlinski after the play?  The play is reviewable under the instant replay system, but manager Matt Williams did not elect to review the play, as documented by the Washington Post:

The errant slider to Tabata made Scherzer the first pitcher to lose a perfect game with a hit-by-pitch with two outs in the ninth inning since Hooks Wiltse in 1908. The Nationals did not argue the call. Manager Matt Williams said he didn’t consider stepping out of the dugout to talk to home plate umpire Mike Muchlinski because he didn’t want to mess with Scherzer’s rhythm. “That’d be a crying shame,” he said.

He’s right.  Messing with Scherzer’s rhythm at that point of the game would have been a mistake, and Scherzer may have lost his perfect game after the review.  But without a challenge, the umpires should have still been able to confer and figure out the obvious fact that Tabata leaned into the pitch.

Another facet of the hit by pitch debate is that the Pirates could have come back in the game.  Yes, they were down 6-0, but weirder things have happened in the game of baseball:

The Pirates needed to string quite a few hits together for that to happen, but it is still a possibility, albeit a very slim one.  Tabata just wanted to get on base to spark a rally for his team.  He probably knew that he could be the last out of a perfect game, too, and he probably did not want that distinction.  Many will look back on what happened and say that Tabata leaned into a pitch and ruined history for a pitcher who, although he may be the best in the game right now, may never get this chance again. He did both of those things on Saturday.  But do you know what else he did?

His job.

He could have easily mailed in the at-bat, which has happened before at the end of perfect games, no-hitters, or simple blowouts.  However, in the grind of a 162-game season, in an at-bat at the end of a game Tabata knew his team would probably lose, he didn’t give up on the at-bat or his team.  That’s admirable.

Many people are to blame for Scherzer losing his perfect game. Count among them the umpires and even Scherzer himself. You could even blame Matt Williams for not challenging, but that is a more difficult case to make because Scherzer was one out away from still getting a no-hitter.  However, I neglected to list an obvious culprit because he isn’t to blame here.

His name is Jose Tabata.

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MLB All-Star Game Ballot, Part 2

About a month ago, I published what my MLB All-Star Game ballot would look like; you can read about it here.  Well, here is part 2:

AL

1B: Prince Fielder, Rangers

2B: Jose Altuve, Astros

SS: Jose Iglesias, Tigers

3B: Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays

C: Stephen Vogt, A’s

DH: Nelson Cruz, Mariners

Outfielders: Mike Trout, Angels; Adam Jones, Orioles; Hanley Ramirez, Red Sox

NL

1B: Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks

2B: Dee Gordon, Marlins

SS: Jhonny Peralta, Cardinals

3B: Matt Carpenter, Cardinals

C: Buster Posey, Giants

Outfielders: Bryce Harper, Nationals; Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins; Justin Upton, Padres

As you can see, not a whole lot has changed here.  I still have not voted for any Royals in either ballot, even though it looks like they will be sending quite a few players to the game:

Let me know what you think!