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The Warriors Will Need More Than Just Draymond Green to Win This Series

Draymond Green
Photo Credit: Tony Dejak/Associated Press

The Draymond Green effect was on full display in Game 5 of the NBA Finals.  It wasn’t demonstrated by his play; rather, it was denoted by his absence.

Without him, the Warriors defense was swiss cheese.  When you combine that with the best games of LeBron James’ season and Kyrie Irving’s career, you get an offensive explosion from the Cavs and an extension of the NBA Finals.

If you don’t already know how we got here, Green was suspended for Game 5 after an incident in Game 4 in which Green hit James with a low blow after Lebron stepped over him.

On the floor, a double common foul on both players was the call; the NBA would review the incident and assess Green a Flagrant 1 foul.  Because of this, Green reached three flagrant foul points, with the other two coming in the wake of Green’s previous groin incident with Thunder big man Steven Adams. NBA rules state that if a player receives three flagrant points over the course of the playoffs, that player is suspended for one game.

After reviewing the incident, the league elected to suspend Green for Game 5.  The announcement set off a series of trash-talking remarks from players on both teams; Klay Thompson suggested that James’ feelings “just got hurt”.  Lebron responded by saying that he’s taken the high road for the last 13 years and that he would “do it again”.

The dispute was significant enough for Steph Curry’s wife, Ayesha, to respond on Twitter with a subtweet that even LeBron would be proud of:

Around the same time as that tweet was sent out, Warriors forward Marresse Speights sent out an emoji that spoke for itself:

But the Warriors, baby bottles, high roads, hurt feelings, and all, would have to play Game 5 without the best player in these Finals.  How would they respond?

By completely disintegrating, particularly on the defensive end.

While the team could do absolutely nothing about Kyrie and LeBron (both scored 41 points), there were times when its defense could have been much more competitive.  For example, take a look at this play, in which Richard Jefferson drives to the rim unimpeded:

It’s possible to think that Draymond Green’s presence may have shut that play down before it even developed.  However, there was another important Warrior also missing from that play and most of the second half: Andrew Bogut.

Bogut suffered a knee injury in the third quarter of Game 5 and it didn’t look good.  Watch as Bogut appears to hyperextend his left knee after blocking a J.R. Smith shot attempt:

Potentially losing Bogut presents myriad questions for the Warriors in Game 6.  For example, does Steve Kerr decide to start Festus Ezeli in Bogut’s spot and essentially keep the same starting lineup without him?  Or, does Kerr decide to go with his Death Lineup to start the game, with no true big man and Green at center?  Do James Michael McAdoo and Anderson Varejao get more playing time in the Australian’s stead?

There are many questions for the Warriors to sort out ahead of Thursday night’s Game 6, but there is one question mark the team can do nothing about.  That question mark is the play of forward Harrison Barnes.

Barnes, with all due respect, had himself a John Starks-ian performance on Monday.  He shot 2-14 from the field, including 1-6 from the three-point line.  He had open looks all night but just couldn’t hit any of them.  As ESPN’s Ben Alamar notes, this may be more of an anomaly than a trend:

This helps to explain why Barnes missed so many shots in Game 5; he just had a bad night.  He’s a good shooter (38% from deep in the regular season, 36% in the playoffs) and he had one of those games that all players have from time to time.

Nonetheless, when you factor in Green’s absence and Bogut’s injury, it was a really bad time for Barnes to disappear.  Golden State needed him to step up for Green, and he didn’t answer the bell.  On its own, Barnes’ struggle was no big deal, but in the context of his team’s circumstances, it was very troubling, to say the least.

The most surprising part about his no-show, though, is the fact that he’s actually having a pretty good series.  In the Finals, he’s averaged 11 points per game and 5.4 rebounds per contest; in other words, he’s essentially producing like he did in the regular season.  That’s all the Warriors need out of him, and if he has that type of game on Thursday in Cleveland, they should be pretty happy.

But there are other areas that could really give Golden State more of a boost.  For instance, take a look at the bench.  A second unit that was the story of the first two games of this series only went for 15 points in Game 5.  In fact, the trio of Klay Thompson, Steph Curry, and Andre Iguodala accounted for 77 of the Warriors’ 97 points on the evening.  This can at least partially be explained by Andre Iguodala’s move to the starting lineup to replace Green, but players such as Shaun Livingston and Marreese Speights (0 points on 0-6 shooting) need to step up in Game 6.

But, there is one more factor to examine here: can the Cavaliers sustain their performance from Monday night?  James and Irving combined for 82 points, each going for 41 (something that has never happened before in an NBA Finals), but that level of production probably can’t be repeated again.  Assuming it isn’t, who will step up for Cleveland to force a Game 7 and potentially even win a championship?  Kevin Love?  J.R. Smith?  It will be difficult for the Cavs to win two games in a row if their role players do not step up to help their other-worldly superstars.   There have been no indications in this series that they can or will.

The Warriors should get a boost from Green’s return.  He’s not the best player on the team; besides from Steph Curry, though, he may be the most important.  He should be able to help Golden State’s defense at the rim and on the perimeter.

But the injury to Andrew Bogut and the disappearance of Barnes and the bench should give the Warriors at least some cause for concern.  Role players will have to step up for the Warriors to win their second straight title.

If they don’t, Green’s return might not be enough to save them.

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What Would a Pitcher Home Run Derby Actually Look Like?

Photo Credit: Jose Luis Villegas/The Sacramento Bee

Recently, there has been much discussion in and around baseball about whether or not Giants pitcher Madison Bumgarner should participate in this year’s Home Run Derby.   It seems like a fun idea, but San Francisco manager Bruce Bochy, along with many others, is concerned about the injury potential that comes with swinging the bat as hard as possible once every 15 seconds (as we saw in last year’s Derby).

That being said, it looks like Bumgarner’s participation in this year’s event is at least slightly possible; he told reporters that he would “absolutely” want to take part if he was invited to participate.

I’ll say this right now: it’ll never happen.  There are too many people in the Giants organization telling him not to and the risk of injury is too present.  Both he and the Giants have too much to lose by doing this.  But the debate about Bumgarner got me to thinking: if we were to have a Home Run Derby with pitchers only, who would participate?

I thought it an interesting question; after all, there’s a reason why #PitchersWhoRake is a thing.  So I set out to find eight pitchers to fill my hypothetical, pitcher-only Derby.

So let’s start with the obvious…

Madison Bumgarner

Duh.  This guy is the best-hitting pitcher in baseball; in fact, he leads all active pitchers in home runs… and he’s only in his sixth full season.  His home run rate is comparable to Mike Trout and Bryce Harper (no, seriously) and he has the bona fide power needed to win a Home Run Derby.

For instance, listen to this account of a recent batting practice exhibition in St. Louis, as told to ESPN’s Buster Olney and relayed by Sports Illustrated’s Jay Jaffe:

Prior to Sunday night’s ESPN-televised game between the Giants and Cardinals, Bumgarner put on a show in batting practice at Busch Stadium, hitting more than a dozen homers, including two into the third deck and one into the uppermost fourth deck. A groundskeeper told ESPN’s Buster Olney that Mariners slugger Nelson Cruz is the only other player he can recall reaching such rarefied territory.

That would be perfect for the Derby.  And Petco Park has become more hitter-neutral since its fences were pulled in three years ago; this would give MadBum at least a fighting chance to get his share of dingers.

And that’s exactly what all of us would want to see.

Noah Syndergaard

Here, our Derby gets a solid injection of THOOOOOOORRRRRRRR…..

In any event, Syndergaard hits like a poor man’s Bumgarner; while his strikeout rate is awfully high, he usually finds a way to hit the ball hard when he makes contact.  And when he’s not throwing 100 MPH heat behind people’s backs or at their faces, he’s hitting impressive home runs to the deepest parts of the park (three, to be exact).  In fact, all three of his home runs have approached 400 feet.

While he might struggle trying to hit home runs to center over a wall 400 feet from home plate, a more friendly right field gives him a legitimate chance to compete.

So yeah, Syndergaard is a must for this event.

Jake Arrieta

Here’s another pitcher who seems to want in on the Home Run Derby fun.  This is what Arrieta had to say after Saturday’s win over the Braves, his tenth of the season:

If he’s in it, I need to be in it [….] That’s for sure. He can hit the ball a long way, but I can too.

Arrieta has impressive power to all fields; in a game last season against the Pirates, he hit a home run and a warning track fly at Wrigley.  His power has been majestic at times, and he would surely make the Derby more interesting.

He’d also give it some name recognition; after all, he’s only one of the two best pitchers in baseball.

Zack Greinke

A low-risk, potentially high-reward choice here.  Greinke has six career home runs, including two in the span of ten days last season with the Dodgers.

There’s not a whole lot more to say about this; Greinke has been one of the best hitting pitchers in baseball for several years, so he should be a safe pick for the Derby.

Adam Wainwright

And yet another pitcher seems to want a piece of the Home Run Derby pie.  This is what Wainwright tweeted in the wake of the news about Bumgarner and Wainwright:

Wainwright would be an excellent choice, with seven career home runs to his name.  And if he seems to want to do it, why should he be denied?

Yovani Gallardo

This is another safe choice.  But it brings another layer to this debate: Gallardo has not pitched in the National League since leaving the Brewers after the 2014 season.  He boasted tremendous power during this time, hitting 12 home runs and four in the 2010 season alone.  But how will he fare doing something that he hasn’t really done in almost two years?

He should be able to do pretty well; let’s just hope he isn’t too rusty.

Jose Fernandez

I don’t know about you, but I like my home runs with a little sauce.  This is what Fernandez did (and what ensued) when he hit his first career home run in 2013:

Fernandez in a Home Run Derby would be awesome.  Imagine a more high-energy, emotional version of Yoenis Cespedes from three years ago.  If that’s the Fernandez we get, we’d be in for a very fun night.

And that’s what this is about, not playing the game “the right way”.

Finally, for a bonus…

Bartolo Colon

Please, just please let this happen.  Please?

This would undoubtedly be the best part of a pitcher Derby.  Not much would be expected from Big Sexy, and any home run he hits would bring Petco Park to the ground.  Add that to the fact that he hit his first career home run at Petco and you get a no-brainer pick who would become the sentimental favorite just by stepping onto the field.

And we know that even if he doesn’t make contact, he’s still going to try really hard.  Sometimes even laughably hard.

But he’d make this Derby even more fun than it already is.

This is the Home Run Derby we will never have, but it’s the one we need. But according to ESPN’s Buster Olney, maybe there is a chance of it happening after all:

So you’re saying there’s a chance?  Count me in.

Let’s make this work and make baseball fun again in the process.

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The Cavaliers Are Not a Better Team Without Kevin Love*

CLEVELAND, OH - APRIL 17: Kevin Love #0 and LeBron James #23 of the Cleveland Cavaliers celebrate during the second quarter of the NBA Eastern Conference Quarterfinals against the Detroit Pistons at Quicken Loans Arena on April 17, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Cavaliers defeated the Pistons 106-101. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)
Photo Credit: Jason Miller/Getty Images

*But his absence helps Cleveland stack up against the Warriors.

When Kevin Love suffered a concussion in the first half of Game 2 of the NBA Finals, opinion was split on his impact to a Cavs team facing a 2-0 deficit against the Golden State Warriors. Some thought Love’s injury and, later, his inability to play in Game 3 would spell doom for Cleveland; others felt his absence would actually help the team.  Still others believed that the series was already over regardless of Love’s presence.

Sure enough, the Cavaliers rocked the Warriors by 30 in Game 3, inserting themselves back into the series.  They did so without Kevin Love.

So it was no surprise that after the game, many pundits pointed to Love’s absence as a case of addition by subtraction rather than a crippling loss.  Here are just some headlines from the postgame reaction:

The Cavaliers Should Trade Kevin Love This Summer, But Where? (SB Nation)

Let’s Face the Facts: The Cavs Are Better Against the Warriors Without Kevin Love (CBS Sports)

It’s Time for Cavs, Kevin Love to Decide If They Fit in or Fit Out Together (Bleacher Report)

It looks like some are already jumping ahead to this summer, one that should see the salary cap rapidly approach $100 million.  Whether or not the Cavaliers wish to keep Love may be impacted by the fact that the team is almost $24 million over the league’s $84.7 million luxury tax for this season; Love’s contract calls for a cap hit of over $20 million every year until 2020. While Dan Gilbert has exhibited the willingness to win no matter the cost, financials could play into the Cavs’ ultimate decision on Love.

But there really isn’t time to worry about this now.  What we can pay attention to is the Cavaliers’ NBA Finals matchup with the defending champions and single-season wins record holders, the Golden State Warriors.

And the fact is, Cleveland is probably better, at least in this series, without him.

In Game 1, Love shot 7-17 and scored 17 points.  However, he only shot 3-10 from inside the paint and 2-5 from inside three feet.  The Cavs’ offense was off all night, resulting in a 38% shooting performance which included a 23-60 showing from LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and Love.  The Warriors took Game 1 104-89, a win that saw Golden State’s bench score 45 points.  By contrast, Cleveland’s bench scored a paltry 10.

Both teams would move on to Game 2.  In that game, Love went up for a rebound against the Warriors’ Harrison Barnes.  Barnes drilled Love with an elbow to the back of the head, leaving him down in a heap as play continued.

 

Why the game proceeded as Love was down in such a dangerous area of the floor is beyond me.  Luckily, Draymond Green was able to jump to his side and avoid landing on him as he elevated for the subsequent layup, avoiding more serious injury for the Cavs’ big man.  The game should have been stopped to give Love time to get out of the way before grown men of his size (and bigger) came flying at his twisted body.  But I digress….

The Warriors would follow up on the injury by pulling away and taking Game 2 by 33 for a 2-0 lead and undisputed control of the series.  Love would enter the NBA’s concussion protocol after re-entering the game in the second half as a dizzied, compromised version of himself.  Some thought the Cavaliers would be a compromised version of themselves in Game 3.  As it turns out, they were just the opposite.

With Love’s inability to start Game 3, the team would turn to soon-to-be 36-year-old Richard Jefferson to start in his place. While many (including myself) called for Tyronn Lue to start Timofey Mozgov, the team’s only true center, the move to Jefferson wound up paying dividends.  The team shot 52.7% from the field, including 12-25 from three, en route to a 120-90 drubbing of the Warriors.

While there are other factors at play (namely the struggles of Steph Curry and Klay Thompson), what the Cavaliers did on Wednesday night was nothing short of remarkable.  Jefferson’s insertion into the starting lineup made a big difference in several ways.

For one, the Cavs’ offense was run much more simply with Jefferson.  Kyrie Irving and LeBron James handled the ball on almost every possession.  Decisions were made far more quickly.  The ball movement was far sharper than it was in Games 1 and 2; 17 and 15 assists in the first two games, respectively, became 23 assists in Game 3.

Nonetheless, we do need to look beyond the numbers for a full explanation of the Cavs’ stunning turnaround.  For as simple as this sounds, James, Irving, and the rest of the offense executed in ways they didn’t in the Bay Area.  For example, look at J.R. Smith.  Smith, the always–enigmatic sharpshooter who has found a way to revitalize his career in Cleveland’s winning environment, struggled to patch together any offense in the first two games.  Lo and behold, Game 3 rolls around and Smith puts up 20 points on the strength of five threes.

That leads us to another theory: do the role players for each team play better at home?  In watching the Cavaliers in this series, the answer would have to be yes.  Role players such as Smith and Tristan Thompson, who struggled in Oakland, pieced together outstanding performances in Game 3, doing their part to turn the tide of the Finals.

That being said, the Cavs need to sustain their performance in Game 4 and beyond.  Curry and Klay Thompson will figure out their perimeter woes sooner or later, and when they do, the Warriors will be difficult to contain.

But while sustainability may be an issue, the Cavaliers are better equipped to win this series with Jefferson in the starting lineup. In Game 3, Jefferson’s offensive rating (140) and defensive rating (94) were just two figures of how his presence improved the rest of his team.  As I alluded to before, the Cavs just played faster with him in the starting lineup; that applies to both ends of the floor.  All of a sudden, defensive switches were far quicker.  The Dubs’ pick-and-roll wasn’t as deadly as it was in the first two games.  And, last but not least, the Cavs were able to run their offense through James and Irving, which greatly simplified Cleveland’s offensive sets and put less impetus on role players to create baskets.

And I’ll say this since we seem to like talking about this year’s Finals in the context of last year’s: is Richard Jefferson the 2016 version of Andre Iguodala?  Unlike Iguodala, Jefferson did start five games in the regular season, but the similarities between the two players and their teams’ circumstances from last year to this are interesting, to say the least.  Iguodala was undoubtedly asked to do more a year ago, from defending LeBron to helping the slumping offense go small; Jefferson’s main role is to knock down threes and defend the Warriors’ wings (Iguodala, Harrison Barnes, Green).  Golden State’s primary offense does not come from those players, so RJ’s assignment becomes much easier.

But Jefferson’s role in the Cavs’ (at least temporary) turnaround is nothing short of impressive.  The offense and defense run far more smoothly with him on the floor, something that can’t be said about Love.  Love is a better player than Jefferson at this point in their respective careers and in most matchups, the former helps the team win.

However, the best starting lineup for the Cavaliers to combat the Warriors is one that includes Richard Jefferson, not one with Kevin Love.  And after seeing how well Jefferson played on Wednesday, why shouldn’t he start again in Game 4?  It is a tough quandary for Lue (who, all told, is only 58 games into his NBA head coaching career), but how could you break up a starting lineup that went a combined +113 in Game 3?  I would think that Love has to come off the bench, wouldn’t you?

If he does, the Cavaliers would probably be better for it.  That’s not something that is usually said about Love, but his style of play and slow-footed defense is incompatible for this series and this opponent.

But the player who can hold his own against the Warriors and help his team succeed is Richard Jefferson.

And that’s why he should get the start in Game 4.

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Here We Go Again: NBA Finals Preview

Warriors vs. Cavaliers: Score, Highlights and Reaction from 2016 Regular Season
Photo Credit: Tony Dejak/Associated Press

After four games of the Conference Finals, the respective fates of the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers were greatly in question.

Both teams experienced unexpected outcomes; the Cavs split the first four games of their series against the Toronto Raptors, including two losses in Canada, while the Warriors fell behind three games to one to the Oklahoma City Thunder.  Both teams were expected to win their respective conferences; Cleveland, in particular, was expected to sweep the Raptors or defeat them in five games.  Consequently, it was shocking to see both teams appear so vulnerable for such long periods of time.

Both teams also had notable regular seasons, to say the least.  The Warriors set the single-season wins record (73), breaking the previous record of 72 set by the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls.  The Cavaliers, on the other hand, fired head coach David Blatt on January 22nd and replaced him with Tyronn Lue.  After Blatt started the season 30-11, Lue finished it 27-14; the combined 57-25 record was good enough for the Cavaliers to earn home-court advantage for the entirety of the Eastern Conference playoffs.  However, many questions still remained about the team’s ability to beat the best teams in the West.

And yet, here we are.  The Cavaliers took Games 5 and 6 in decisive fashion to beat the Raptors and get LeBron James to his sixth straight NBA Finals.  The Warriors improbably became just the tenth team in NBA history to overcome a 3-1 playoff deficit and took down the Thunder in seven hard-fought games.

Both teams overcame obstacles to get to this point.  Golden State endured a knee injury that forced point guard and 2-time MVP Steph Curry to miss two weeks in early May.  In spite of this, the Dubs went 3-1 in four full games without him.  The MVP would come back in Game 4 of the team’s second-round series against the Trail Blazers. With Golden State up two games to one, Curry came off the bench and dropped 17 points in overtime, an NBA playoff record, to carry the Warriors to a 3-1 series lead and full control over Portland.

Curry scored 40 points for the game and announced himself to the rest of the world as fully healthy.  That did not necessarily apply to his rhythm and comfort level in game action, however.

Curry would struggle to find his mojo in the first four games of the Western Conference Finals.  In those four games, Steph would shoot just 31-74 (41.9%) from the field and a pedestrian 16-43 (37.2%) from deep.  He surely did not look like the best player in basketball, and many were curious as to why.  This report from The Vertical shed some light on the situation, stating that Curry was not fully healed:

Curry has been a shell of himself – missing shots, throwing away passes, losing his dribble and completely unable to prove that there’s Curry-esque agility in that knee. “He’s playing at 70 percent, at best,” a source close to Curry told The Vertical. Curry refuses to make excuses, but privately the Thunder see something – no explosion, no ability to make the bigs switching onto him pay a price. Nineteen points on 20 shots Tuesday night bore no resemblance to the two-time NBA Most Valuable Player.

While it was nice to have a potential reason for Curry’s struggles, the Warriors needed to win the next three games to make it back to the NBA Finals.  Without having Curry’s usual production, this goal looked almost unattainable.  And then Klay Thompson happened.

Thompson, the other half of the Splash Brothers duo, has been the Warriors’ best player in the postseason.  He’s shot 45% from three-point range, averaged over 26 points per game, and carried the team at various times coinciding with Curry’s struggles and injuries.  After a narrow victory in Game 5 and the continuation of Curry’s woes to start Game 6, he would need to put the Warriors on his back once more to extend their season.

And Thompson would answer the call in grand fashion.  His 11 three-pointers set a new playoff record and propelled the Warriors to a 108-101 victory to force a Game 7.

The exhibition was one of the most memorable single-game playoff performances in recent memory.  It was almost as if Thompson wasn’t even looking at the rim on some of his deep shots, and yet it didn’t seem to matter.  He carried the Dubs to Game 7 all on his own, and the rest of the team would take it from there.  Curry erupted for 36 points in the clincher, Thompson added another 21, and the Warriors defeated the Thunder 96-88 to advance to their second straight NBA Finals.

The Cavaliers’ playoff journey has not been nearly as arduous.   Nonetheless, it has been just as impressive as their West counterparts. Cleveland started the playoffs with a sweep of the Detroit Pistons, a series that featured three close games and this Kyrie Irving dagger to finish off Game 3:

Kyrie, ?

A video posted by Bleacher Report (@bleacherreport) on

 

The Cavs followed up their first-round performance with an equally impressive second-round sweep of the Atlanta Hawks.  Wins in the first two games of the Eastern Conference Finals pushed Cleveland to a 10-0 start to the playoffs.  The team missed its chance to tie the 1989 Los Angeles Lakers for the best start in playoff history (11-0) with a loss in Game 3, but starting the playoffs on a historic tear doesn’t usually guarantee a title.

Although the Cavs’ series with the Raptors went to six games, it wasn’t especially close.  Cleveland outscored Toronto by an average of 15.5 points per game; for context, the 2014 San Antonio Spurs outscored the Heat by 14 points per game in that year’s Finals, and that series only went five games.  Even though the series was tied heading into Game 5, the Raptors never really stood a chance.  Their fans were pretty darn awesome, though:

With the Game 6 win, LeBron James advanced to his sixth straight Finals and became only the eighth player to achieve this feat.  Here are the other seven:

  1. Bill Russell
  2. Sam Jones
  3. K.C. Jones
  4. Satch Sanders
  5. Tommy Heinsohn
  6. Frank Ramsey
  7. Bob Cousy

If you didn’t latch on right away, all seven players were on the Boston Celtics’ 1950s-60s teams that went to ten straight NBA Finals from 1957 to 1966.  The fact that James has joined their company with more parity in the league and with two different organizations is nothing short of remarkable.

With all of this being said, the 2016 NBA Finals should be a compelling series.  Oh, and did I mention it’s a rematch of last year’s Finals?  This, as well as the individual players and collective talent on both teams, should make this year’s Finals very competitive and entertaining.  Let’s preview the series with a couple of major keys to the outcome of the series.

Pick-and-Roll

Some would argue that last year’s NBA Finals turned in the 4th quarter of Game 3.  In that 4th quarter, the Warriors discovered David Lee, his passing, and the efficiency of the high pick-and-roll.  In 13 minutes, the cast-off former double-double machine was +17 and went a perfect 4-for-4 from the field.

Lee is gone now, but the pick-and-roll game of the Warriors remains. Whether Curry, Thompson, or Shaun Livingston is the primary ball-handler, roll men Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala, Andrew Bogut, and Festus Ezeli will present unique challenges for the Cavaliers. Bogut is one of the best-passing big men in the game and is almost always looking to pass when he rolls to the rim. Ezeli can finish with authority inside while Iguodala and Green can drive to the rim, take a jump shot, or make an extra pass to the Warriors’ dangerous shooters.

But there’s another reason why the pick-and-roll will be such a huge key for the Cavaliers, and it lies in the players who will be defending it.  As Zach Lowe of ESPN writes, the two-man combination of Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love is not exactly adept at pick-and-roll defense:

But Irving and Love have been the central players in Cleveland’s worst breakdowns. Opponents in the playoffs have scored 1.09 points per chance when they involve those two as the primary pick-and-roll defenders in a play that leads directly to a shot attempt, drawn foul or turnover, per SportVU data provided to ESPN.com. That would have ranked last by a mile among 119 two-man combos that defended at least 250 pick-and-rolls in the regular season, per that SportVU data set.

Toronto was able to exploit this weakness with the two-man pick-and-roll combo of Kyle Lowry and Bismack Biyombo.  With the Warriors’ offensive firepower, they could rely on pick-and-roll action to stifle the Cavs’ defense.  Look out for this early on in Game 1 as a harbinger of how the game, and, for that matter, the series, will go.

LeBron’s Jumper, His Fatigue, and How They’re (Kind of) Related

It’s no secret that LeBron James’ jump shot is not quite as effective as it was in years past.  Statistics back this up: his three-point percentage this season was the lowest since his rookie year (30.9%) and his deep shooting has regressed every year since winning his last MVP in 2012-13.  Accordingly, Bron has adjusted: his average distance on field goal attempts is at a career low (9.6 feet) and he’s taking the most attempts from inside three feet in his NBA career (45.9%).

Part of this adjustment can be attributed to James’ realization that he must get better shots.  However, one can also credit the King’s improved shot selection with Tyronn Lue’s offense, one in which the ball moves as frequently as the players.  LeBron just isn’t asked to do as much in Lue’s system, and that’s a good thing: his Usage Rate in these playoffs is down significantly from last year’s.  Of course, last year’s Cavs were decimated by injuries, but a fresher LeBron means a better LeBron.

And a better LeBron means a better Cavalier team, certainly better than the one that lost to the Warriors in six games a year ago.

Pace…. And Space

The Cavaliers have possessed the most efficient offense in these playoffs, averaging over 119 points per 100 possessions.  Cleveland only averages 89.7 possessions per game, which is relatively low, especially compared to their Bay Area counterparts.  The Warriors average nearly 100 possessions per game and feast off the opponent’s misses and turnovers for fast break opportunities and easy baskets.

Aside from the pick-and-roll defense of the Cavs, this will probably be the biggest indicator of the outcome of this series.  If the Cavaliers’ offense is allowed to set up in the half court and run its sets, Cleveland will be in very good shape, especially considering how their offense has fared these playoffs.  However, if the game is played at a more up-and-down tempo, the Dubs should fare well.

While Tyronn Lue has sped up the Cavs’ offense since taking over as head coach, the team still needs to execute.  If they can execute, they could feast on a Warrior defense that has been susceptible to slumps this postseason.  Another reason why the Cavaliers’ offense has been so lethal is because of new additions.  Aside from getting Love and Irving back healthy, the team has added Richard Jefferson and Channing Frye via free agency and trade, respectively.  Frye is shooting 26-45 (57.8%) from deep this postseason while Jefferson has provided valuable minutes off the bench.

Needless to say, LeBron James won’t have to do it by himself this time around.  He has some very dangerous weapons beside him now.

The Prediction

I really struggled with this one.  There are good arguments for both teams winning the Larry O’Brien trophy, and either way, it should be an enjoyable, competitive, and (hopefully) long series.  There are so many interesting storylines to this year’s Finals (Cavs vs. Warriors rematch, Steph vs. LeBron, etc.) and I think I’m speaking for everyone in saying that I hope it lives up to the hype.

Nevertheless, I have to make a pick.  I’m taking the Golden State Warriors to win their second straight title.  I have the series going the distance, and I really think it could be one of the best NBA Finals series ever.

But here’s to hoping injuries don’t determine the outcome like they did last year.

**All Statistics courtesy of BasketballReference unless otherwise noted

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The Great Debate: Brandon Ingram or Ben Simmons?

Photo Credit: Mark Dolejs/USA Today

The NBA Draft is less than a month away, which is kind of unbelievable.

While it is unfair to judge this early in the process, it would be fair to assess this year’s draft as top-heavy.  Many, including myself, believe that the two best incoming rookies are LSU’s Ben Simmons and Duke’s Brandon Ingram.  Most also would agree that there’s a large gap between the second and third-best players in the draft.  The 76ers and Lakers, respectively, have the first and second picks. Philadelphia’s choice will be real simple: the consensus #1 in Simmons or the younger, higher-upside, riskier choice in Ingram.

Let’s make a case for either as the #1 pick, starting with Simmons.  I’ll preface everything I am about to say with the fact that, at this time last year, I viewed D’Angelo Russell as the best player in the draft.  We all make mistakes.

The Case For Ben Simmons

Photo Credit: Derick E. Hingle/USA Today

The appeal with Simmons is obvious: he can play all five positions, rebound like a forward, pass like a guard, and run the floor like a wing.  On the surface, he’s one part LeBron James and another part Magic Johnson.  The latter seems to know something about this:

If you don’t believe Simmons is a freakish talent, there’s photographic evidence to prove it.  Take a look at this play from LSU’s late-January tilt against Oklahoma.  Watch Simmons identify the lack of backside help, blow by Khadeem Lattin, and rock the cradle like it’s nothing:

 

He’s a very intelligent offensive player, one who uses his athletic ability and length to overpower smaller, weaker defenders.  He needs to learn how to shoot (more on that later) but his athleticism, rebounding, and passing make him, in the minds of many, the undisputed top pick in the 2016 NBA Draft.

And it’s easy to see why; we haven’t seen anything quite like Simmons in a long time, and it’s difficult to compare the Aussie to just one past or present NBA player.  If I were to guess, he’s equal parts of Lamar Odom, Blake Griffin, and LeBron.  He possesses Odom’s passing ability and creativity, Griffin’s rebounding ability, and LeBron’s can’t-miss athleticism.  He has the potential to be a special player, but his skill set is one unfamiliar to many.

That shouldn’t prevent us from appreciating him, though.  And it shouldn’t prevent him from reaching his full potential, either.

The Case for Brandon Ingram

Photo Credit: Charles LeClaire/USA Today

Ingram’s case is rooted less in the now and more in the potential of what he could become later on.  Ingram came into Duke very shortly after turning 18 and improved greatly on both ends as the season went along.  While he had more talent around him in Durham than Simmons did at LSU, Ingram’s steady improvement and promising upside make him a potentially high-reward, albeit somewhat high-risk, pick at one.

The main difference between Ingram’s game and Simmons’ is that the former is able to consistently knock down shots from deep.  That being said, he can get up when given the space, as he did against Oregon in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament:

 

Ingram is easily the best two-way player in the draft, one who really competes on both ends.  He’s ready to contribute right away defensively and should be able to handle most threes and even some fours.  He’s an extremely athletic, long wing who will fit perfectly in today’s NBA and most teams’ systems, as well.  If there’s one knock on him, it’s that he’s:

  1. incredibly raw
  2. too thin to handle NBA physicality

After watching Ingram play several times and studying tape on him, I came to the conclusion that he reminded me of Kevin Durant. Yes, that’s a lofty comparison and it doesn’t mean he will become the player KD is, but their styles of play are very similar.  He weighs under 200 pounds, but as ESPN’s Ian Begley points out, he’s working diligently to fix this problem as quickly as possible:

Ingram’s potential is off-the-charts.  That’s why Philadelphia should take him with their first overall pick.

The Verdict

We’ve dissected the case for each player to go first overall on June 23. In my view, Ingram and Simmons are 1 and 1a; it’s hard to go wrong either way.  That being said, I do have to pick one over the other, and even though they are very close talent-wise, I’ll take Brandon Ingram by a hair.  Here’s why.

For one thing, I like his fit in most NBA organizations.  There aren’t many systems in which he would not be able to find a role, as his talent at both ends gives him the versatility to succeed.  This isn’t to say that Simmons is not versatile, but he is multi-talented in a slightly different way.  For example, he was asked to handle the ball more in college than he likely will in the NBA.  Ingram, on the other hand, worked more off-the-ball at Duke, getting open off screens and the penetration of Duke guards.

On that note, Ingram is a far better off-ball player than Simmons.  He plays very instinctually on offense and knows how to get open.  The LSU forward isn’t there yet, but he has to learn how to shoot first.

Don’t think that Simmons’ inability to sink a jump shot won’t hurt him at the next level.  Defenses will be more likely to sag off him, preventing him from building momentum toward the rim and, in turn, creating offense for his teammates.  He’s also not even shooting with the proper hand; learning to shoot with his right hand and not his left could help him improve.  But he absolutely has to get better from outside of the paint, and this will likely be the next step in his development.

The other factor that has been much discussed recently is Simmons’ interest in playing for the 76ers.  As Nick DePaula of The Vertical reported before the Draft Lottery, outside elements beyond fit and need may be at play:

The thinking from Simmons’ camp is straightforward and simple: It’s the Los Angeles Lakers or bust.

As it stands, Simmons has five-year endorsement offers from adidas and Nike. Adidas is offering a $10 million deal that also includes a $2 million signing bonus and a $1 million incentive bonus for being named Rookie of the Year. There are also several other on-court performance triggers that would provide Simmons with elevated marketing, extra resources and possibly his own signature shoe should he play at an All-Star level.

I’ll be honest: the shoe endorsement opportunities and off-court distractions are somewhat significant, but they should not be non-starters in Bryan Colangelo’s decision.  However, if Simmons and his agent, Rich Paul, expressly state that the prospect will refuse to play for the team, then Philly has to either take Ingram or trade down for more assets.  The 76ers are in a difficult position with this pick, especially if Simmons’ demands force their hand.

For these and other reasons, I would take Brandon Ingram over Ben Simmons if I had the #1 overall pick.  It’s a tough choice and one that will dictate the future of the 76ers for years to come, but I think that Ingram will continue to improve and validate his very high upside.

But it’s a very difficult decision, one I’m very happy I don’t have to make.

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Baseball’s “Culture” Once Again Rears Its Ugly Head

Photo Credit: Ronald Martinez/Getty Images
Photo Credit: Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

You’re probably aware of this by now, but Jose Bautista got punched in the face yesterday.

The blow was the result of a hard slide into second base that attempted to break up a potential double play.  The slide would result in an out because of the new rules regarding interference at second base; however, the result of the slide would be what we’re talking about today and what we’ll be talking about for a long time.

The inning started with this pitch from Matt Bush that drilled Joey Bats squarely in the elbow.  The intentions of the pitch are debatable but you can see it for yourself here:

An Edwin Encarnacion fly out would be the first out of the inning. Jake Diekman subsequently entered the game and induced a ground ball to second from Justin Smoak.  And that’s when all hell broke loose.  (WARNING: video may be disturbing for some.)

Odor landed a right hook to Bautista’s face that would qualify as a knockout punch.  A full-blown donnybrook broke out, and Bautista, Odor, and Josh Donaldson were ejected after the fight.  It was a legitimate brawl; far from the usual baseball “fight” that consists of players running in from the bullpen and both dugouts only to stand around and yell at each other.

After the fight in the top of the 8th, Jays reliever Jesse Chavez thought it an intelligent idea to plunk Rangers DH Prince Fielder in the back to start the next half-inning.  It wasn’t.  Both benches cleared again and Chavez was ejected.  The Rangers ultimately won the game, 7-6. Nobody cared.

With all of this having occurred, one would think that the reaction to the fight would be negative.  One man punching another in the face is not generally well-received; just ask LeGarrette Blount.

Instead, some of the headlines and reaction were comparatively positive.  These are just a couple of the reactions to yesterday’s scuffle:

Deadspin: Blue Jays Call Rangers “Gutless” And “Cowardly” After Excellent Brawl

CBS Sports: WATCH: A montage of best right-handed punches in history of MLB fights

That reaction is real; people (even some involved in baseball) really think that throwing punches is cool.  In any other civilized setting, this action would be denounced as boorish and unethical behavior. In hockey, it’s called Tuesday, but fighting isn’t right in that sport, either. That being said, at least hockey players have some protection in the form of their helmets and the fight is at least somewhat controlled, often only involving one-on-one combat.  It doesn’t justify fighting, but it does explain why hockey continues to allow it, even as findings regarding concussions and brain injuries suggest that it should be banned.

That being said, how can baseball legislate its fighting problem?  It won’t be easy and it can’t be done by the umpires on the field.  It can be done on Park Avenue, by Rob Manfred and Major League Baseball.

One way to start would be to hand out major, major suspensions for this ridiculous brawl.  The MLB record for the longest suspension after a fight is 10; that record is jointly held by Michael Barrett, Ian Kennedy, Mike Sweeney, Miguel Batista, and Runelvys Hernandez. They were all suspended for some pretty wild actions, but it’s difficult not to argue that Odor’s right hook belongs up there with those fights as the most violent in baseball history.

This is another reason why there needs to be severe punishment for those involved in the fight: baseball needs a culture shock.  It needs to realize that fighting fire (or lesser things) with fire isn’t the right thing to do, that retaliation and violence are not avenues to deal with conflict over the course of a game.  Giving massive suspensions to Odor and others for their roles, even if they are unprecedented, can go a long way in changing baseball’s “eye-for-an-eye” culture.

But baseball must do even more to prevent fights like this from happening in the future.  One way the sport can stop the problem from growing is to educate its players on the dangers of violence and the serious harm that their actions can cause others.  Yes, players still will instinctually turn to brawling to deal with issues that arise, but if they are properly educated on the cons of these fights rather than the pros, the game will be far better for it.

And we can’t forget the elephant in the room: Jose Bautista’s actions in last year’s playoffs.  In a winner-take-all ALDS game 5 between these same two teams, Bautista launched a 7th-inning bomb to put the Blue Jays ahead to stay and into the ALCS.  Merely seconds after he made contact, Bautista launched quite possibly the most memorable bat flip throw in MLB history:

Some predictably took affront to Bautista’s actions, saying that he went over the top in his reaction to his home run.  For me, it’s very difficult to take issue with what Bautista did; it was the biggest home run of his life.  If you were him in that moment, you would celebrate too.  We need to stop having issues with bat flips and embrace them as a way of expressing the pure joy of this wonderful game; if we do this, we can make baseball fun again.

Finally, the last issue with baseball’s old school culture is that it is self-righteous and ignores the past actions of certain players if they play the game “the right way”.  For example, Odor has pulled plenty of dirty slides over the past year, as Padres pitcher Brandon Morrow points out:

And that’s not all when it comes to the second baseman.  In 2011, Odor was playing for the Spokane Indians of the Northwest League. On a play eerily similar to the one on Sunday, Odor slid well past second base.  After running in awfully close proximity to the Vancouver Canadians’ second baseman, a big fight like Sunday’s broke out, leaving Odor to fight the entire Vancouver team on his own:

So it’s only fitting that Odor was involved in the biggest MLB brawl in recent memory.

Baseball needs a change of culture, and it needs one soon.  The sport needs to relax its harsh critiques of bat flips, flamboyance, and harmless emotion so it can refocus its gaze on the very dangerous violence that sometimes exists between the white lines. Unfortunately, it may take a serious injury in one of these conflicts to make the sport change its ways.

However, baseball should change before we get to that point.

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Capital Loss: Washington Blows Its Last, Best Chance at a Stanley Cup

Photo Credit: Charles LeClaire/USA Today
Photo Credit: Charles LeClaire/USA Today

These weren’t the same old Capitals, they said.  This year would be different, they said.  Have faith in Washington, they said.  This team and these players would finish the deal, they said.  The Capitals would win a Stanley Cup, they said.

And yet, here we are, in the same position we were in years past, questioning what went wrong in Washington and what can be changed for the future.  And yet, maybe the Capitals have passed the point of no return, blowing their best chance to date at finally getting over the hump.

This year, the Capitals had the best season in hockey, amassing 120 points and 56 wins en route to the Presidents’ Trophy and home-ice advantage throughout the playoffs.  For a time, they even flirted with NHL records in points (132) and wins in a 70+ game season (62).  The points record is held by the 1976-77 Montreal Canadiens; the wins record resides in Detroit with the 1995-96 Red Wings.  The Canadiens won the Stanley Cup in 1977 while the Red Wings lost to the Avalanche in the 1996 Western Conference Final.  The 2015-16 Washington Capitals wouldn’t even get that far.

In hindsight, the first harbinger of trouble in the Caps’ truncated playoff run was their first-round series against the Flyers. Washington jumped out to a 3-0 lead in the series before dropping games 4 and 5.  The game 5 loss stands out in particular because the Capitals outshot the Flyers 44-11… and lost 2-0.  The team would take game 6, but the damage had been done.  The league’s best team was proven vulnerable.

After advancing over Philly, the Capitals would face the Pittsburgh Penguins in the next round.  The series was competitive and riveting; five of the six games were decided by one goal and three of six games went to overtime.  The first game was one of those overtime tilts, and the Capitals won it on this T.J. Oshie goal that almost didn’t make it across the goal line:

Game 2 also went down to the wire, with Eric Fehr’s goal at 15:32 of the 3rd period giving the Penguins a 2-1 victory.  A 3-2 win in Game 3 put the Penguins up 2-1, and Pittsburgh would take a 3-1 series lead on the strength of this overtime goal from Patric Hornqvist at the end of Game 4:

Game 5 saw the series return to the Nation’s Capital and the Capitals win 3-1 to force a Game 6.  In that game, Pittsburgh would pull out to a 3-0 lead and hold a 3-1 advantage going into the third period.  At this point, Capitals fans must have been simultaneously thinking the same thing: “Here we go again.”  However, this team was supposed to be different, the squad to avenge the losses of the Capitals’ past.

And while they couldn’t avenge those past losses just yet, the Capitals were able to avenge their bad start and tie the game at three with goals from Justin Williams and John Carlson.  This one would also go to an extra period; would the outcome be different for this year’s Capitals?

We got our answer at 6:32 of the first overtime period. Nick Bonino scored this game-winner on assists from Carl Hagelin and Phil Kessel to win the series for the Penguins and send the Capitals golfing:

Here’s the question, though: what happened?  Why didn’t things change from prior years?

First of all, the Capitals didn’t choke.  I say that mainly because I absolutely hate the use of the word in sports.  The amount of proverbial or actual “choking” that goes on in sports is much less than you would think, especially if you only get your news from those who refuse to look at the facts.  That being said, the Capitals’ failure does represent a rather enormous missed opportunity, one that may haunt the organization for years to come.

This is why: Alex Ovechkin isn’t getting any younger.  At 30, he’s the best player in the game of hockey, but he’s also coming into the twilight of his prime.  Wayne Gretzky’s play began to decline around the age of 31; that isn’t meant to compare Ovie to the Great One, but it does show the mortality of NHL players, especially as the physicality and energy of the game takes a toll on their aging bodies.

Another reason why this is such a big disappointment is that the team is built to win in the postseason.  Yes, Ovechkin is the best player in the game, but goaltender Braden Holtby might be the best netminder in hockey right now.  Holtby is a nominee for the Vezina Trophy, annually given to the best goaltender in the NHL.  One of the major keys to victory in the playoffs is having a solid, consistent presence in net, and the Caps have one of the best goalies you could ask for.

And while he gave up four goals in the team’s final defeat of the season, Washington’s elimination can hardly be blamed on him.  By Goals Against Average, total saves, and save percentage, Holtby was the best goalie in the playoffs.  While other netminders had better and more efficient statistics, they didn’t have to deal with an unceasing barrage of shots in their general direction; Holtby did.  Even though he didn’t get the results to match his play, he is hardly the reason the Capitals are going home so early.

Are the Capitals cursed?  It’s difficult to say; they definitely are far from lucky.  The comparisons between them and the Clippers and, more specifically, Alex Ovechkin and Chris Paul, are stunning. Neither player has made the Conference Finals of his sport, and neither star is at fault for his team’s repeated misfortune.

That being said, the Capitals must recover quickly from this defeat. They’ve gone down time and time again early in the playoffs, so coming back from bitter defeat at the end of seasons is nothing new for them.

However, it may be too late for the current version of the Capitals to seize the sport’s ultimate prize: the Stanley Cup.

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Where Does He Go Now? The Future of Frank Vogel

Photo Credit: Associated Press
Photo Credit: Associated Press

Frank Vogel is one of the best coaches in the NBA.  He’s an intelligent, charismatic team builder who has molded the Indiana Pacers into one of the most consistent teams in the league.  He’s also out of a job.

After coaching Indiana to five playoff appearances in nearly six years as the team’s head coach, he was let go by team president Larry Bird because… well, I don’t know why:

“Good coaches leave after three years”.  Larry Bird is the one of the best basketball players ever; what some forget is that at one time, he was a pretty good NBA head coach.  Ironically, he led the Pacers to three straight playoff appearances and the franchise’s only NBA Finals appearance in 2000.  Indiana lost to the Lakers, ending Bird’s third season as head coach.  And then…. he left.  Irony.

That being said, Vogel will have plenty of options if he wants to coach next season.  Let’s look at a few of those here.

Honorable Mention: Portland Trail Blazers

Yes, it sounds crazy; the Blazers already have Terry Stotts, one of the best coaches in the game and the runner-up in this season’s Coach of the Year voting.  Stotts, however, is at the end of his contract and while a deal should still get done, it will be interesting to follow whether this team and its coach come to an impasse in negotiations like the one encountered by Vogel and the Pacers.

It’s not likely that this job will be open, but it’s definitely one worth watching.

New York Knicks

Let’s just skip the formalities: there’s no chance Frank Vogel is coaching the Knicks next season.  They’ve seemingly locked in on Kurt Rambis as their guy (for some reason) and aren’t conducting much of a coaching search right now.  Vogel actually grew up in Wildwood, New Jersey and worked for the Lakers and Phil Jackson as an advance scout during the 2005-06 season.

Also, remember that Jackson, the team’s president, waited until June 10, 2014, before hiring Derek Fisher as its head coach the last time the job was open.  Vogel won’t last until then for the seemingly unhurried executive.  The likelihood of Vogel coaching the Knicks next season is easy to figure: zero.  There’s no chance of this actually happening.

That being said, it is fun to imagine the Knicks making a good coaching hire, for once.

Houston Rockets

This one is really interesting.  The Rockets have a superstar in James Harden who, believe it or not, is only 26 years old.  Ironically, Paul George is also 26, and we saw what Vogel was able to do for him.

However, the problem with this move would be the Pacers’ and Rockets’ respective paces and styles of play.  While Vogel’s Pacers have averaged just over 93 possessions per game over the past four seasons, the Rockets have been successful by pushing the pace and garnering more possessions.  In fact, Houston has eclipsed 96 possessions per game over that same time period, outrunning Indiana… but not necessarily outplaying them.

The teams have basically had the same amount of success over the past four years, with the Rockets making the playoffs every year. However, the Pacers have found more success in the second season, with two Conference Finals appearances in 2013 and 2014 and a seven-game first-round series with the Raptors this year.  The Rockets, on the other hand, have been eliminated in the first round in three of the past four seasons with a Conference Final appearance and a quick exit at the hands of the Warriors wedged in between.

Also, there’s the minor issue of the Vogel’s style of play and, more significantly, the ability of the Rockets’ personnel to hypothetically carry it out.  Dwight Howard has an opt-out clause that he can use this July 1; needless to say, he won’t be back after the tumult of this past season.  With his imminent departure, the Rockets are looking square in the face of starting Clint Capela at center unless, of course, the team can sign or draft a big man this summer.  Vogel’s Indiana teams had the most success when his offense was allowed to run through David West and Roy Hibbert, each of whom was one of the best big men in the game at one time.

Much was made of the Pacers’ going small and playing faster this season; while it worked for one year, there is no doubt that Vogel is much more comfortable espousing an old-school, traditional style of play on offense.  The Rockets wouldn’t be able to carry this out in their current form, so something would have to give.

But it sure would be intriguing to see what would happen if Vogel coached the Rockets, even if it would be different than what we’re used to from him.

Memphis Grizzlies

This fit is emerging as the most logical one for Vogel, as Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo.com’s The Vertical reports:

The preliminary stages of Memphis’ search to replace Dave Joerger include Vogel – the formerIndiana Pacers coach – who used the weekend to decompress after losing his job on Thursday, league sources said.

Vogel plans to start evaluating head-coaching opportunities early this week, league sources said.

The fit in Memphis makes the most sense for Vogel.  His old-school, slow style of play with a heavy emphasis on big men suits the Grizzlies’ “grit-and-grind” mantra perfectly.  If the team can secure Vogel as its head coach, it won’t have to change its style of play much, if at all.  What the team will have to change is its health, and there’s not much that can be done about that.

This season, the Grizzlies used an NBA-record 28 (!) players en route to a 42-40 record and a first-round sweep at the hands of the Spurs. Key pieces such as Marc Gasol, Mike Conley, Zach Randolph and Tony Allen all missed significant time over the course of the regular season. Also, no player on the team started over 57 games for the team, forcing Memphis to use 28 different starting lineups over the course of the season, with 12 of those combinations starting just one game.

It’s easy to see why the Grizzlies took a step back last season.  None of their best players could stay healthy for the entire year and the continuity of the team’s play was shattered.  That being said, the team could be back to its old ways next season, and new leadership may be part of their potential improvement.  Dave Joerger was almost inexplicably fired after this past season for the team’s subpar performance; now, it’s easy to see why he was canned.

The Grizzlies had something better lined up the whole time.

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5,000 to Won: Making Sense of What Leicester City Just Did

Photo Credit: English Press Association
Photo Credit: English Press Association

We’ve seen some pretty awesome underdogs in the history of sports, but we’ve never witnessed one quite like this.

Today, these underdogs completed the conquest of their sport and attained what might be the most unlikely title in the history of sports. Yes, the history of sports.

Going into the English Premier League season, nothing very little was expected of Leicester City FC.  That lack of expectation has followed the Foxes since last March; the team was ranked last in the English Premier League with seven games to play last season.  Things were so bad that they were seven points behind the 19th and second to last place squad, facing the very real prospect of relegation to the Football League Championship.  (The bottom three teams in the Premier League are relegated and the top three teams in the Football League Championship are promoted to the Premier League each season.)

However, the team pulled off a miracle, securing 22 points in its final nine games and finishing in 14th place to ensure another season of Premier League football.  As it turns out, the comeback finish would be a harbinger of things to come.

The team was, and you may want to be sitting down for this, 5000-1 underdogs to win the league this season.  We’ll come back to that figure later.

Anyway, the team wasn’t expected to go very far this year.  The odds of their relegation were assuredly greater than those of them actually winning the league.  Despite these slim chances, Leicester got off to a strong start, accumulating 40 points in its first 17 games to top the league table on Christmas.  A winless three-game stretch from December 26 to January 2 dropped them to second, but a three-game winning streak kickstarted by a 1-0 January 13 win over Tottenham Hotspur put the team back on top.  And that’s where they would stay. Tottenham blew a two-goal lead with seven minutes to play and ceded a 2-2 draw to Chelsea today, clinching the title for LCFC.

Impressively, the team would lead the table for a total of 147 nights over the course of the season.  This means that it led for 52% of the year; this certainly wasn’t a wire-to-wire championship, but leading the league for over half the season isn’t bad either.

With all of that being said, the team was a 5000-1 longshot to win the league.  How is it possible that they actually pulled this off?  That we may never know, but it is important to add context to this championship.

For example, the Weber State Wildcats made this year’s NCAA Tournament as a 15-seed.  They would ultimately fall, 71-53, to Xavier in the first round.  As a team in a mid-major conference (Big Sky) that has never had a national champion, you would figure that their odds of winning one next year are pretty long.  They are; according to vegasinsider.com, the team is a 2000-1 longshot to be featured at the end of next season’s edition of One Shining Moment.  The Wildcats still aren’t nearly as big underdogs as Leicester was this year.

The closer you look, though, the worse it gets.  The Cleveland Browns look like they might be one of the worst teams in the history of the NFL this coming season.  They’re a glorified expansion squad, and that is a serious, majority opinion.  The Browns are so bad that they turned to a baseball executive, albeit an analytics guru, to run its front office.  Not to pile on, but the team will probably be an underdog in every single one of its games.  Translated: Las Vegas thinks the Browns will go 0-16.

But do you know what their odds are to win the Super Bowl?  200-1. I’m not sure how that is possible, but that’s the Browns’ chances of winning it all in 2016.  If it’s any consolation, Cleveland’s odds to win the AFC are 100-1.  Let’s do one more of these, shall we?

The Atlanta Braves have been baseball’s worst team so far this season, winning 5 of 23 games in the month of April.  They’ve hit a grand total of five home runs to this point in the season; three of them have come from star first baseman Freddie Freeman.  Atlanta is quite obviously going nowhere this year, and as I write this, the Braves are losing 4-0 to the Mets.

The best part of all of this?  They only face 500-1 odds to win the World Series this season.

The point of this exercise was to demonstrate how disrespected the Foxes were by oddsmakers and pundits going into the season. Relegation was the most likely outcome for the team and anything more would have been considered a pleasant surprise.  But a championship?  That is a complete and utter shock, to say the least.

There have been many memorable, inspiring, and shocking underdog championships in the history of sports.  Some that immediately come to mind are the 1983 North Carolina State Wolfpack, the 1985 Villanova Wildcats, the 2008 and 2012 New York Giants, the 1969 New York Jets, the 1969 New York Mets, and the 1980 U.S. Hockey Miracle on Ice.

This is the difference with Leicester, though: they did it for a full season.  There were no playoffs for the Foxes to win and there would be no getting hot at the right time.  The team would have to be the best team in the Premier League for an entire season, all while having to manage injuries and cold stretches.  All of the aforementioned squads weren’t the best in the regular season and simply played their best at the most opportune time.

It’s hard to win consistently in sports, but to be the best team in the sport for the majority of the season at such long odds is far more difficult.  Leicester City did that and defied every prediction and prognostication in the process.  They also took much of the world by storm, captivating those who may not have been otherwise interseted in the Premier League season.

Not bad for a team that should have been relegated.

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Why Athletes Don’t Trust the Media

Photo Credit: AP Images
Photo Credit: AP Images

The Golden State Warriors defeated the Houston Rockets 121-94 on Sunday to take a 3-1 lead in their first-round series.  To many in the city of Houston, though, the game was an afterthought.

Ravaging floods have recently affected the city, killing at least eight and forcing over 1,000 to leave their homes.  The rainfall is a serious matter as it has caused over $5 billion in property damage across the city.  Therefore, you can understand why Houstonians aren’t exactly worried about their Rockets right now.

But that didn’t stop a reporter from asking Draymond Green a question about the parallels between the flood and the Warriors’ road wins in the city in each of the past two playoffs.  Instead of deflecting this ridiculous inquiry, Green took the time to wonderfully excoriate whoever this “reporter” is:

The question was easily the dumbest I’ve ever heard.  Trying to create similarities between the team’s 21 threes and a life-threatening natural disaster is never a good way to go about your business as a so-called “journalist”.  Yes, you’re there to ask questions and get more than just cliched responses out of the players, but you’re also supposed to make informed, relevant, pointed inquiries.  That question had none of those qualities.

And yet, upon hearing the tirade, I had a different thought: would it have been better for Green to just say “next question” and move on? Did Green’s destruction of the reporter actually shift attention away from the question and toward the player ranting about it?

We’ve seen reporters ask stupid questions before, especially in the NBA.  During the 2014 NBA Finals, local reporter Bobby Ramos made a name for himself for all the wrong reasons.  After the Spurs’ 111-92 defeat of the Heat in Game 3, Ramos got his chance to question LeBron James and Dwyane Wade.  This is what he asked in his 15 seconds of fame:

I have no idea what Ramos was trying to accomplish by way of that question.  Translated, this is what he asked: “Is the problem that you’re not scoring enough or that you’re giving up too many points?” Basically, it sounded like Ramos wanted to know if it was important for one team to score more points than the other.  In my brief experience with the game of basketball, it is.  But that’s just my perspective.

It was a question that James and Wade wasted little time with.  They both chuckled and Wade answered that the team was down 2-1 and that was the big problem.  Really, huh?  I’m sure that’s a piece of information that fans would not have previously known.

That wasn’t all the press conference fireworks for that series, however.  Before game 4, Spurs coach Gregg Popovich sat down at the podium and fielded this bizarre query from another Miami-area reporter:

While Popovich gets criticized sometimes (and rightfully so) for his excessive brevity with reporters, he did nothing wrong by shooting down this question.  The team was coming off one of the most dominant performances in NBA Finals history in game 3; a repeat of that level of play would assuredly be good enough to win game 4.  So why on Earth would the team change anything?  What is there to change?  Again, this is an example of a question that was not thought out in advance, one that ended with a verbal smackdown that ended faster than you could say “five championships”.

But which response is better: the ignorance of the question or the flaming of the reporter who asked it?  The answer depends on the situation.

For example, Green was asked a question about flooding, a life-threatening situation.  He and the Warriors were also coming off a game in which they lost soon-to-be-MVP Stephen Curry to a knee injury; Curry will miss at least two weeks with an MCL sprain.  That loss, combined with the stupidity of the question asked, created a perfect storm for Draymond to react the way he did.

On the other hand, Popovich, Wade, and James were asked questions about the game itself.  Granted, they were absurd lines of questioning, but they had to do with the comparatively trivial subject of sports and nothing greater.  Because of this, it was easier for them to deflect the questions as nothing more than unprepared reporting.  However, it would have been understandable if they had reacted to the silly questioning like Jay-Z probably reacted to Lemonade; that is to say, not well.

There’s another side to the story, though, and that’s the side of the reporter.  Obviously, not all sports journalists ask questions so hollow and uninformed.  There are plenty of reporters who ask fair, challenging, tough questions that back interview subjects into corners.  For example, take this exchange that then-CNN personality Rachel Nichols had with Roger Goodell over a year ago:

There, Nichols asked a very relevant question: why does the NFL refer to their investigations as “independent” if they are still paying the “private investigators”?  The commissioner immediately got defensive with Nichols, saying that he didn’t agree with her assertion and even pointing out that she won’t be paying for the league’s investigations.   The exchange was a demonstration of excellent journalism and how a prepared, reasonable question could put one of the most powerful people in sports on his heels.

That being said, not enough of those informed questions (and people) comprise the sports media today.  Too many times, athletes are asked ignorant questions at press conferences, flip out on the reporters asking them, and are blamed by the partial media for doing so.  In reality, it isn’t their fault; they push themselves to their physical and mental limits each and every day.  To have second-rate journos interrogate them this way is, in some ways, a little insulting.

The relationship between athletes, coaches, and the media is an interesting one.  The players and coaches feel that they should be given more space while the media wants unfettered access into their lives.  Their relationship is lukewarm, at best.

And with questions like the one posed to Draymond Green last night, it’s hard to see it improving anytime soon.