Tag: Cleveland Cavaliers

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The Cavaliers Are Not a Better Team Without Kevin Love*

CLEVELAND, OH - APRIL 17: Kevin Love #0 and LeBron James #23 of the Cleveland Cavaliers celebrate during the second quarter of the NBA Eastern Conference Quarterfinals against the Detroit Pistons at Quicken Loans Arena on April 17, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Cavaliers defeated the Pistons 106-101. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)
Photo Credit: Jason Miller/Getty Images

*But his absence helps Cleveland stack up against the Warriors.

When Kevin Love suffered a concussion in the first half of Game 2 of the NBA Finals, opinion was split on his impact to a Cavs team facing a 2-0 deficit against the Golden State Warriors. Some thought Love’s injury and, later, his inability to play in Game 3 would spell doom for Cleveland; others felt his absence would actually help the team.  Still others believed that the series was already over regardless of Love’s presence.

Sure enough, the Cavaliers rocked the Warriors by 30 in Game 3, inserting themselves back into the series.  They did so without Kevin Love.

So it was no surprise that after the game, many pundits pointed to Love’s absence as a case of addition by subtraction rather than a crippling loss.  Here are just some headlines from the postgame reaction:

The Cavaliers Should Trade Kevin Love This Summer, But Where? (SB Nation)

Let’s Face the Facts: The Cavs Are Better Against the Warriors Without Kevin Love (CBS Sports)

It’s Time for Cavs, Kevin Love to Decide If They Fit in or Fit Out Together (Bleacher Report)

It looks like some are already jumping ahead to this summer, one that should see the salary cap rapidly approach $100 million.  Whether or not the Cavaliers wish to keep Love may be impacted by the fact that the team is almost $24 million over the league’s $84.7 million luxury tax for this season; Love’s contract calls for a cap hit of over $20 million every year until 2020. While Dan Gilbert has exhibited the willingness to win no matter the cost, financials could play into the Cavs’ ultimate decision on Love.

But there really isn’t time to worry about this now.  What we can pay attention to is the Cavaliers’ NBA Finals matchup with the defending champions and single-season wins record holders, the Golden State Warriors.

And the fact is, Cleveland is probably better, at least in this series, without him.

In Game 1, Love shot 7-17 and scored 17 points.  However, he only shot 3-10 from inside the paint and 2-5 from inside three feet.  The Cavs’ offense was off all night, resulting in a 38% shooting performance which included a 23-60 showing from LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and Love.  The Warriors took Game 1 104-89, a win that saw Golden State’s bench score 45 points.  By contrast, Cleveland’s bench scored a paltry 10.

Both teams would move on to Game 2.  In that game, Love went up for a rebound against the Warriors’ Harrison Barnes.  Barnes drilled Love with an elbow to the back of the head, leaving him down in a heap as play continued.

 

Why the game proceeded as Love was down in such a dangerous area of the floor is beyond me.  Luckily, Draymond Green was able to jump to his side and avoid landing on him as he elevated for the subsequent layup, avoiding more serious injury for the Cavs’ big man.  The game should have been stopped to give Love time to get out of the way before grown men of his size (and bigger) came flying at his twisted body.  But I digress….

The Warriors would follow up on the injury by pulling away and taking Game 2 by 33 for a 2-0 lead and undisputed control of the series.  Love would enter the NBA’s concussion protocol after re-entering the game in the second half as a dizzied, compromised version of himself.  Some thought the Cavaliers would be a compromised version of themselves in Game 3.  As it turns out, they were just the opposite.

With Love’s inability to start Game 3, the team would turn to soon-to-be 36-year-old Richard Jefferson to start in his place. While many (including myself) called for Tyronn Lue to start Timofey Mozgov, the team’s only true center, the move to Jefferson wound up paying dividends.  The team shot 52.7% from the field, including 12-25 from three, en route to a 120-90 drubbing of the Warriors.

While there are other factors at play (namely the struggles of Steph Curry and Klay Thompson), what the Cavaliers did on Wednesday night was nothing short of remarkable.  Jefferson’s insertion into the starting lineup made a big difference in several ways.

For one, the Cavs’ offense was run much more simply with Jefferson.  Kyrie Irving and LeBron James handled the ball on almost every possession.  Decisions were made far more quickly.  The ball movement was far sharper than it was in Games 1 and 2; 17 and 15 assists in the first two games, respectively, became 23 assists in Game 3.

Nonetheless, we do need to look beyond the numbers for a full explanation of the Cavs’ stunning turnaround.  For as simple as this sounds, James, Irving, and the rest of the offense executed in ways they didn’t in the Bay Area.  For example, look at J.R. Smith.  Smith, the always–enigmatic sharpshooter who has found a way to revitalize his career in Cleveland’s winning environment, struggled to patch together any offense in the first two games.  Lo and behold, Game 3 rolls around and Smith puts up 20 points on the strength of five threes.

That leads us to another theory: do the role players for each team play better at home?  In watching the Cavaliers in this series, the answer would have to be yes.  Role players such as Smith and Tristan Thompson, who struggled in Oakland, pieced together outstanding performances in Game 3, doing their part to turn the tide of the Finals.

That being said, the Cavs need to sustain their performance in Game 4 and beyond.  Curry and Klay Thompson will figure out their perimeter woes sooner or later, and when they do, the Warriors will be difficult to contain.

But while sustainability may be an issue, the Cavaliers are better equipped to win this series with Jefferson in the starting lineup. In Game 3, Jefferson’s offensive rating (140) and defensive rating (94) were just two figures of how his presence improved the rest of his team.  As I alluded to before, the Cavs just played faster with him in the starting lineup; that applies to both ends of the floor.  All of a sudden, defensive switches were far quicker.  The Dubs’ pick-and-roll wasn’t as deadly as it was in the first two games.  And, last but not least, the Cavs were able to run their offense through James and Irving, which greatly simplified Cleveland’s offensive sets and put less impetus on role players to create baskets.

And I’ll say this since we seem to like talking about this year’s Finals in the context of last year’s: is Richard Jefferson the 2016 version of Andre Iguodala?  Unlike Iguodala, Jefferson did start five games in the regular season, but the similarities between the two players and their teams’ circumstances from last year to this are interesting, to say the least.  Iguodala was undoubtedly asked to do more a year ago, from defending LeBron to helping the slumping offense go small; Jefferson’s main role is to knock down threes and defend the Warriors’ wings (Iguodala, Harrison Barnes, Green).  Golden State’s primary offense does not come from those players, so RJ’s assignment becomes much easier.

But Jefferson’s role in the Cavs’ (at least temporary) turnaround is nothing short of impressive.  The offense and defense run far more smoothly with him on the floor, something that can’t be said about Love.  Love is a better player than Jefferson at this point in their respective careers and in most matchups, the former helps the team win.

However, the best starting lineup for the Cavaliers to combat the Warriors is one that includes Richard Jefferson, not one with Kevin Love.  And after seeing how well Jefferson played on Wednesday, why shouldn’t he start again in Game 4?  It is a tough quandary for Lue (who, all told, is only 58 games into his NBA head coaching career), but how could you break up a starting lineup that went a combined +113 in Game 3?  I would think that Love has to come off the bench, wouldn’t you?

If he does, the Cavaliers would probably be better for it.  That’s not something that is usually said about Love, but his style of play and slow-footed defense is incompatible for this series and this opponent.

But the player who can hold his own against the Warriors and help his team succeed is Richard Jefferson.

And that’s why he should get the start in Game 4.

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Here We Go Again: NBA Finals Preview

Warriors vs. Cavaliers: Score, Highlights and Reaction from 2016 Regular Season
Photo Credit: Tony Dejak/Associated Press

After four games of the Conference Finals, the respective fates of the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers were greatly in question.

Both teams experienced unexpected outcomes; the Cavs split the first four games of their series against the Toronto Raptors, including two losses in Canada, while the Warriors fell behind three games to one to the Oklahoma City Thunder.  Both teams were expected to win their respective conferences; Cleveland, in particular, was expected to sweep the Raptors or defeat them in five games.  Consequently, it was shocking to see both teams appear so vulnerable for such long periods of time.

Both teams also had notable regular seasons, to say the least.  The Warriors set the single-season wins record (73), breaking the previous record of 72 set by the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls.  The Cavaliers, on the other hand, fired head coach David Blatt on January 22nd and replaced him with Tyronn Lue.  After Blatt started the season 30-11, Lue finished it 27-14; the combined 57-25 record was good enough for the Cavaliers to earn home-court advantage for the entirety of the Eastern Conference playoffs.  However, many questions still remained about the team’s ability to beat the best teams in the West.

And yet, here we are.  The Cavaliers took Games 5 and 6 in decisive fashion to beat the Raptors and get LeBron James to his sixth straight NBA Finals.  The Warriors improbably became just the tenth team in NBA history to overcome a 3-1 playoff deficit and took down the Thunder in seven hard-fought games.

Both teams overcame obstacles to get to this point.  Golden State endured a knee injury that forced point guard and 2-time MVP Steph Curry to miss two weeks in early May.  In spite of this, the Dubs went 3-1 in four full games without him.  The MVP would come back in Game 4 of the team’s second-round series against the Trail Blazers. With Golden State up two games to one, Curry came off the bench and dropped 17 points in overtime, an NBA playoff record, to carry the Warriors to a 3-1 series lead and full control over Portland.

Curry scored 40 points for the game and announced himself to the rest of the world as fully healthy.  That did not necessarily apply to his rhythm and comfort level in game action, however.

Curry would struggle to find his mojo in the first four games of the Western Conference Finals.  In those four games, Steph would shoot just 31-74 (41.9%) from the field and a pedestrian 16-43 (37.2%) from deep.  He surely did not look like the best player in basketball, and many were curious as to why.  This report from The Vertical shed some light on the situation, stating that Curry was not fully healed:

Curry has been a shell of himself – missing shots, throwing away passes, losing his dribble and completely unable to prove that there’s Curry-esque agility in that knee. “He’s playing at 70 percent, at best,” a source close to Curry told The Vertical. Curry refuses to make excuses, but privately the Thunder see something – no explosion, no ability to make the bigs switching onto him pay a price. Nineteen points on 20 shots Tuesday night bore no resemblance to the two-time NBA Most Valuable Player.

While it was nice to have a potential reason for Curry’s struggles, the Warriors needed to win the next three games to make it back to the NBA Finals.  Without having Curry’s usual production, this goal looked almost unattainable.  And then Klay Thompson happened.

Thompson, the other half of the Splash Brothers duo, has been the Warriors’ best player in the postseason.  He’s shot 45% from three-point range, averaged over 26 points per game, and carried the team at various times coinciding with Curry’s struggles and injuries.  After a narrow victory in Game 5 and the continuation of Curry’s woes to start Game 6, he would need to put the Warriors on his back once more to extend their season.

And Thompson would answer the call in grand fashion.  His 11 three-pointers set a new playoff record and propelled the Warriors to a 108-101 victory to force a Game 7.

The exhibition was one of the most memorable single-game playoff performances in recent memory.  It was almost as if Thompson wasn’t even looking at the rim on some of his deep shots, and yet it didn’t seem to matter.  He carried the Dubs to Game 7 all on his own, and the rest of the team would take it from there.  Curry erupted for 36 points in the clincher, Thompson added another 21, and the Warriors defeated the Thunder 96-88 to advance to their second straight NBA Finals.

The Cavaliers’ playoff journey has not been nearly as arduous.   Nonetheless, it has been just as impressive as their West counterparts. Cleveland started the playoffs with a sweep of the Detroit Pistons, a series that featured three close games and this Kyrie Irving dagger to finish off Game 3:

Kyrie, ?

A video posted by Bleacher Report (@bleacherreport) on

 

The Cavs followed up their first-round performance with an equally impressive second-round sweep of the Atlanta Hawks.  Wins in the first two games of the Eastern Conference Finals pushed Cleveland to a 10-0 start to the playoffs.  The team missed its chance to tie the 1989 Los Angeles Lakers for the best start in playoff history (11-0) with a loss in Game 3, but starting the playoffs on a historic tear doesn’t usually guarantee a title.

Although the Cavs’ series with the Raptors went to six games, it wasn’t especially close.  Cleveland outscored Toronto by an average of 15.5 points per game; for context, the 2014 San Antonio Spurs outscored the Heat by 14 points per game in that year’s Finals, and that series only went five games.  Even though the series was tied heading into Game 5, the Raptors never really stood a chance.  Their fans were pretty darn awesome, though:

With the Game 6 win, LeBron James advanced to his sixth straight Finals and became only the eighth player to achieve this feat.  Here are the other seven:

  1. Bill Russell
  2. Sam Jones
  3. K.C. Jones
  4. Satch Sanders
  5. Tommy Heinsohn
  6. Frank Ramsey
  7. Bob Cousy

If you didn’t latch on right away, all seven players were on the Boston Celtics’ 1950s-60s teams that went to ten straight NBA Finals from 1957 to 1966.  The fact that James has joined their company with more parity in the league and with two different organizations is nothing short of remarkable.

With all of this being said, the 2016 NBA Finals should be a compelling series.  Oh, and did I mention it’s a rematch of last year’s Finals?  This, as well as the individual players and collective talent on both teams, should make this year’s Finals very competitive and entertaining.  Let’s preview the series with a couple of major keys to the outcome of the series.

Pick-and-Roll

Some would argue that last year’s NBA Finals turned in the 4th quarter of Game 3.  In that 4th quarter, the Warriors discovered David Lee, his passing, and the efficiency of the high pick-and-roll.  In 13 minutes, the cast-off former double-double machine was +17 and went a perfect 4-for-4 from the field.

Lee is gone now, but the pick-and-roll game of the Warriors remains. Whether Curry, Thompson, or Shaun Livingston is the primary ball-handler, roll men Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala, Andrew Bogut, and Festus Ezeli will present unique challenges for the Cavaliers. Bogut is one of the best-passing big men in the game and is almost always looking to pass when he rolls to the rim. Ezeli can finish with authority inside while Iguodala and Green can drive to the rim, take a jump shot, or make an extra pass to the Warriors’ dangerous shooters.

But there’s another reason why the pick-and-roll will be such a huge key for the Cavaliers, and it lies in the players who will be defending it.  As Zach Lowe of ESPN writes, the two-man combination of Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love is not exactly adept at pick-and-roll defense:

But Irving and Love have been the central players in Cleveland’s worst breakdowns. Opponents in the playoffs have scored 1.09 points per chance when they involve those two as the primary pick-and-roll defenders in a play that leads directly to a shot attempt, drawn foul or turnover, per SportVU data provided to ESPN.com. That would have ranked last by a mile among 119 two-man combos that defended at least 250 pick-and-rolls in the regular season, per that SportVU data set.

Toronto was able to exploit this weakness with the two-man pick-and-roll combo of Kyle Lowry and Bismack Biyombo.  With the Warriors’ offensive firepower, they could rely on pick-and-roll action to stifle the Cavs’ defense.  Look out for this early on in Game 1 as a harbinger of how the game, and, for that matter, the series, will go.

LeBron’s Jumper, His Fatigue, and How They’re (Kind of) Related

It’s no secret that LeBron James’ jump shot is not quite as effective as it was in years past.  Statistics back this up: his three-point percentage this season was the lowest since his rookie year (30.9%) and his deep shooting has regressed every year since winning his last MVP in 2012-13.  Accordingly, Bron has adjusted: his average distance on field goal attempts is at a career low (9.6 feet) and he’s taking the most attempts from inside three feet in his NBA career (45.9%).

Part of this adjustment can be attributed to James’ realization that he must get better shots.  However, one can also credit the King’s improved shot selection with Tyronn Lue’s offense, one in which the ball moves as frequently as the players.  LeBron just isn’t asked to do as much in Lue’s system, and that’s a good thing: his Usage Rate in these playoffs is down significantly from last year’s.  Of course, last year’s Cavs were decimated by injuries, but a fresher LeBron means a better LeBron.

And a better LeBron means a better Cavalier team, certainly better than the one that lost to the Warriors in six games a year ago.

Pace…. And Space

The Cavaliers have possessed the most efficient offense in these playoffs, averaging over 119 points per 100 possessions.  Cleveland only averages 89.7 possessions per game, which is relatively low, especially compared to their Bay Area counterparts.  The Warriors average nearly 100 possessions per game and feast off the opponent’s misses and turnovers for fast break opportunities and easy baskets.

Aside from the pick-and-roll defense of the Cavs, this will probably be the biggest indicator of the outcome of this series.  If the Cavaliers’ offense is allowed to set up in the half court and run its sets, Cleveland will be in very good shape, especially considering how their offense has fared these playoffs.  However, if the game is played at a more up-and-down tempo, the Dubs should fare well.

While Tyronn Lue has sped up the Cavs’ offense since taking over as head coach, the team still needs to execute.  If they can execute, they could feast on a Warrior defense that has been susceptible to slumps this postseason.  Another reason why the Cavaliers’ offense has been so lethal is because of new additions.  Aside from getting Love and Irving back healthy, the team has added Richard Jefferson and Channing Frye via free agency and trade, respectively.  Frye is shooting 26-45 (57.8%) from deep this postseason while Jefferson has provided valuable minutes off the bench.

Needless to say, LeBron James won’t have to do it by himself this time around.  He has some very dangerous weapons beside him now.

The Prediction

I really struggled with this one.  There are good arguments for both teams winning the Larry O’Brien trophy, and either way, it should be an enjoyable, competitive, and (hopefully) long series.  There are so many interesting storylines to this year’s Finals (Cavs vs. Warriors rematch, Steph vs. LeBron, etc.) and I think I’m speaking for everyone in saying that I hope it lives up to the hype.

Nevertheless, I have to make a pick.  I’m taking the Golden State Warriors to win their second straight title.  I have the series going the distance, and I really think it could be one of the best NBA Finals series ever.

But here’s to hoping injuries don’t determine the outcome like they did last year.

**All Statistics courtesy of BasketballReference unless otherwise noted

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Chef Curry with the Ring, Boy: The Warriors Are One of the Best Teams of All-Time

The Golden State Warriors completed their championship run last night with a 105-97 defeat of the Cleveland Cavaliers.  Andre Iguodala scored 25 67d124e856d72ff6bef91327bf32636f_crop_northpoints, dished out 5 assists and grabbed 5 rebounds on his way to being named Finals MVP.  Stephen Curry also scored 25 points to go along with 6 rebounds and 8 assists.  Draymond Green had a triple-double of 16 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 assists.  Festus Ezeli, Shaun Livingston, and Harrison Barnes threw in 10 points, 10 points, and 9 points, respectively.  The team’s depth finally wore out the persistent Cavs, and their lack of depth finally caught up with them.  However, this should not take away from this simple fact:

The 2014-15 Golden State Warriors are one of the greatest NBA teams of all time.

Take this stat that compares this year’s Warriors team to the Bulls team of 1995-96 and 1996-97:

There are a couple things to consider here.  To start, both of those ’90s Bulls teams did not have the benefit a best-of-seven first round series.  If those teams did have a best-of-seven first round instead of a best-of five, the ’95-’96 team would have won 88 games and the ’96-’97 team would have won 85 games.  However, two things separates those Bulls from these Warriors: the conference they were in and what they did to their respective competition on their way to The Finals.  In 1995-96 and 1996-97, when the Bulls won 72 and 69 games, respectively, exactly zero teams gave the Bulls trouble on their way to The Finals.  One team won a game against Chicago in the 1996 Playoffs from the Eastern Conference: the Knicks.  The Bulls went on to win those Finals in 6 games against one of the more underrated NBA teams of all-time, the 1995-96 Seattle SuperSonics.  The Hawks and Heat each took a game from Chicago in the 1997 Playoffs, and Chicago would go on to defeat the Utah Jazz in 6 games in the Finals.

Another thing to consider with these three teams is the one common denominator on all of them, as a player and as a coach: Steve Kerr.  On the late 1990s Bulls, Kerr, the player, was a key bench player who, in his 5 years in Chicago, never started a game. Sound familiar?  The MVP of this year’s Finals, Andre Iguodala, hadn’t started a game all season until Game 4 of this series, and his insertion into the starting lineup changed the series.  Like Iguodala, Kerr made big plays when it counted, like this one at the end of the 1997 NBA Finals to give the Bulls their 5th championship:

Also Coach Kerr made the gutsy decision to limit the minutes of his two big men, Festus Ezeli and Andrew Bogut, because their presence was limiting the Dubs’ transition opportunities.  Cleveland out-rebounded the Warriors in two out of the three games with the small lineup, but the Warriors played at a faster pace and got to 100 points in every game since the lineup overhaul.

Another great facet of Steve Kerr’s coaching is his absolutely genius inbound plays, like this one:

And this one:

The bottom-line is that no one gives nearly enough credit to Kerr for the team’s turnaround this year. Think about this stat: the Warriors went from 51 wins to 67 wins in the Western Conference.  Granted, there are other factors at play here that allowed them to make this jump (the fall of the depleted Thunder, the decline of this year’s Spurs, facing the Pelicans in the first round and not the Thunder), but that’s still very impressive.  It’s clear that the difference was made in the offseason with the hiring of Kerr and the unpopular firing of Mark Jackson, who won 51 games last year and turned the franchise around.  The team was first in offensive points scored at 110 and allowed less than 100 points per game defensively.  They had the top points per game differential as well, at +10.1.  This team was dominant on both ends.  For context, the ’95-’96 Bulls’ differential was +12.3 and the ’96-’97 Bulls’ differential was +10.8.

This being said, I don’t think these Warriors are as good as those teams were.  A more apt comparison for them, as a young, potentially all-time great team with no previous Finals experience, would have to be the Bulls of 1990-1991.  That team also scored 110 points per game and allowed 101, for a +9 differential.  That team also played 9 players consistently, and was more similar to these Warriors than you might think.  They played two bigs consistently, but they had comparisons to these Warriors.  They had their Draymond Green (Horace Grant) and their Andrew Bogut (Bill Cartwright). However, the comparisons end there for one simple reason: we’ve never seen a team quite like the Warriors before.

To sum it all up, this isn’t about whether the Warriors could beat an all-time great team in a one-game or seven-game series.  This is about the coronation of a new team in the new NBA with a new way of winning a title.  And they’re just getting started; most of their roster is back, and the only instability comes in Draymond Green’s impending restricted free agency, but look for the Warriors to match any offer Green gets.  This team could be the next Spurs, a great dynasty.  This, of course, is if they stay healthy, which, as we’ve seen in the NBA this season, is not the easiest thing to do.  However, if everyone important stays, this team has the potential to be a great unit that is right in the title conversation every year.  They will evolve and change certain pieces, but they could be back in the finals 10-15 years from now, and there may only be one constant:

Chef Curry with the ring, boy.

But let’s appreciate this year’s team for what it is: one of the best ever.

 

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LeBron James Should Be Finals MVP, No Matter What

The Cavaliers wasted another brilliant LeBron James performance last night in Oakland, losing images104-91 to the Warriors.  The game was a perfect demonstration of why the Cavaliers are about to lose these Finals, why LeBron James is the best player in the world, and why LeBron should be named the Finals’ MVP, even if Cleveland goes down either in Game 6 on Tuesday or Game 7 on Friday.

One of the main reasons why the clear MVP of this series is LeBron is because there is no clear MVP from the Warriors.  The team’s two best players in this series may very well be the league MVP (Steph Curry) and the series-altering addition to Golden State’s starting lineup, Andre Iguodala.  Curry has averaged 26.2 points, 5 rebounds and 6 assists per game in these Finals; however, he was effectively shout down in Game 2 and for the first 3 quarters of Game 3 by Matthew Dellavedova. Iguodala has averaged 14.6 points, 6 rebounds. and 3.8 assists per game in the series, but has been +29 in the two games since being inserted into the starting lineup. James’ stats, however, are a different story.  Per game, he’s averaged a meager 36.6 points, 12.4 rebounds, and 8.8 assists.  While it’s true that his efficiency is at an all-time low, what other choice does he have?  Exactly; he doesn’t.  He has to put the team on his shoulders, and that he has and that this series is still going is simply amazing.

The last Finals MVP to not be on the winning team was the Lakers’ Jerry West in 1969.  That year, his Lakers lost to the Bill Russell and John Havlicek-led Celtics in 7 games.  Check out this stat that compares West’s performance that year to James’ this year, from ESPN Stats & Info:

That’s amazing.  It just goes to show you that he is doing everything he possibly can in this series to put the Cavaliers on his shoulders.  Due to injuries and a profound lack of depth on the Cavs’ bench, James has absolutely zero help from his own team. Also, to hammer home this point, SportsCenter tweeted this stat out today, demonstrating what LeBron has done in this series, in spite of his team:

That counts for 77% of the Cavaliers points last night.  LeBron James had a hand in nearly 80% of his team’s scoring on the offensive end.  The next stat again comes from ESPN Stats & Info, and it compares Curry’s fourth quarter with the games of Iman Shumpert, J.R. Smith and Matthew Dellavedova, the other three perimeter players that played heavy minutes for Cleveland last night:

All credit to the Warriors and Curry for stepping up after a demoralizing loss in Game 3.  They have been a different team since going down 2-1 and putting Iguodala into the lineup. However, it’s becoming increasingly obvious that the Warriors depth is winning out against Cleveland, who is still only playing eight a game.  However, they made a change last night in playing Timofey Mozgov, their best player in Game 4, for only 9 minutes in Game 5 compared to 33 minutes in Game 4.

It will be very difficult for the Cavaliers to come back and win this series.  However they have a chance.  They have a chance because they have LeBron James, and the Warriors do not. According to LeBron, they are confident in their chances. Listen to James speak about why he is still confident despite facing a 3-2 deficit and having to play a potential Game 7 in the loudest arena in the NBA:

It’s profound.  It’s bold.  It’s mic-drop worthy.  Most of all?  It’s true.  LeBron James is the best player in the world; that simple.

He’s the best player in this series.

He should be Finals MVP.

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The Warriors Are Back

In the first three games of this year’s NBA Finals, the Warriors looked like they didn’t have the mettle and toughness to win a title and dethrone the king.  They were getting beat by the Cavaliers’ tenacious LeBron James is quite possibly out of gas.defense and being clowned defensively by LeBron James, who was averaging 41 points per game in the series.  Matthew Dellavedova was causing fits on defense, particularly to MVP Stephen Curry, who shot just 32% (11-34) in those three games; however, with the exception of the fourth quarter of Game 3, he was just 23% (6-26).  Klay Thompson was also shooting 32% (9-28).  However, this all changed in last night’s Game 4.  James scored just 20 points on 7-22 shooting, and while the combination of Curry and Thompson combined for only 31, it was a lineup change by coach Steve Kerr that made the difference.  He took the floundering Andrew Bogut out of the starting lineup and inserted Andre Iguodala, who had started every game of his career until this year, which saw him come off the bench every night.  He scored 22 points, grabbed 8 rebounds, and was very possibly the best player on the floor, outplaying King James.

The change in the Warriors play was not only due to the change in the lineup, however.  According to Draymond Green, the team was not worried about the 2-1 deficit:

The team did come out pissed, winning loose balls that they had previously lost and wearing down Cleveland in the process. Another factor in Golden State’s success was their depth.  They had regularly played nine players in their rotation regularly; the Cavaliers only played seven.  Their depth became a plus, which is a positive for them going into the series’ last three games:

The combination of their depth along with their effort and hustle allowed them to pull away in Game 4 and tie the series.

The scariest part of playing the Warriors for the Cavaliers right now is that Curry and Thompson have not gotten going yet.  Last night, however, even though they did not have great games, players like Lee, Iguodala, and Shaun Livingston (who was an otherworldly +25 in 25 minutes coming off the bench last night) picked them up.  Thompson and Curry were +15 and +18, respectively.  When they came out, however, the team was +3 in 7 minutes without Curry and +6 in 9 minutes without Thompson. Again, the team’s depth is a huge plus for them and a bigger negative for the Cavaliers. Also, of the seven players the Cavs are playing, one of them has been a glaring negative: J.R. Smith. He, in 28 minutes in Game 4, was -27, and he shot just 2-12 from the field.  However, if he doesn’t have his shot, he can always have his PhunkeeDuck:

However, it’s obvious: if the Cavaliers continue to play 7 players, then those seven players are going to have to play really, really well.  While the rest of the Cavs have actually played pretty well in this series, especially Dellavedova, only two of their players played very well last night: their two big men, Tristan Thompson and Timofey Mozgov.  And part of their success was the game plan of the Warriors that allowed them to get their points against a smaller, quicker lineup that could make plays at the other end.  The Dubs’ defense double-teamed James, especially in the post, and this, combined with the smaller lineup, created mismatches with Cleveland’s bigs.

Another issue the Cavaliers had in last night’s game was their energy, or lack thereof.  They looked to have tired legs and wore out as the game went on. Dellavedova and LeBron cramped up as the game went on, as well; both needed post game treatment for cramping after game 3 (Dellavedova wound up in the hospital).  James also lacerated his head on a camera lens in the second quarter:

The bottom line is that everyone on the Cavaliers was tired last night.  The extra day off before Game 5 on Sunday is absolutely a must, and they have to get their legs back between now and then.  If they don’t, they won’t be able to pull out the miracle and beat the Warriors.  However, one thing is clear after last night.

The Warriors are back.

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After Game 1 of the NBA Finals, Are the Cavaliers Done Already?

Last night in Oakland, the Warriors played the Cavaliers in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.  Cleveland jumped out to a 14-point lead late in the first quarter, which evaporated by late in the second.  The game was extremely tight in the second half, however, and it was tied with 32 seconds to go.  With the ball and a potential two-for-one situation, the Warriors moved quickly.  They set up a fantastic play which saw Steph Curry get the ball in one-on-one action against the ailing Kyrie Irving.  Curry got around Irving, looked like he had a layup secured, and…

On the next possession, LeBron James, while being defended by Andre Iguodala, stepped back for three, missed, and then the ball popped off the rim to Iman Shumpert.

This was the closest the Cavaliers came to scoring until the very end of the overtime session.  Neither team scored for the first 1:48 of OT, and the only points scored in the first 2:30 of overtime were Curry free throws.  Then this happened, which could be calamity for the Cavs:

The Cavaliers would not score in the overtime until a LeBron layup with nine seconds left, which the Warriors defense willingly yielded.

Irving is scheduled for an MRI this afternoon, and he is having that MRI performed as this article is being written.  If there is an official update on his injury and/or status for the rest of the series, this will be updated.  However, his Game 2 status looks grim, per USA Today’s Jeff Zillgitt:

If Irving cannot play in Game 2 or beyond, the Cavaliers are most likely done. This is why.

Without Irving, the Cavs would most likely turn to Matthew Dellavedova to start at the point.  In Game 1 against Golden State, Irving had the best +/- number on the Cavs, at +5.  Dellavedova had the worst at -13.  Worst of all, he did that in nine minutes.  If he would have played Irving’s 44 minutes at this rate, his +/- would have been -64.  Of course, that wouldn’t happen, because the game would have evened out after a certain amount of time, before those 44 minutes were up.  But Dellavedova’s complete lack of impact in those minutes is utterly concerning.  He had three assists and one rebound in those nine minutes, and that’s basically it. He did nothing to distinguish himself, and was also on the floor during the Warriors’ bench-fueled comeback in the second quarter.

Another issue for the Cavaliers is the question of who will help LeBron in the scoring department.  As Bill Russell once said in a Pepsi Uncle Drew commercial, “This game has always been, and will always be, about buckets.”  Sure, he scored 44 points last night, as well as 8 rebounds and 6 assists.   However, the Warriors are obviously not terribly worried about James’ scoring; they are more worried about that of his supporting cast.  LeBron also made some very tough shots, especially jumpers, against very good defense from Andre Iguodala, Harrison Barnes, and others.  He will not make those shots forever, and without Irving, he may be the Cavaliers only productive offensive player.  Sure, Tristan Thompson had 15 rebounds and played an awesome game last night, but he can’t do too much on offense.  J.R. Smith played well in the first half, but went cold in the second.  Can he get his own shot without the passing and floor spacing that Kyrie provides?  Can Timofey Mozgov get the same pick and roll dunks he did last night, like this one?

And can the Cavaliers’ bench out-perform that of the Warriors if Uncle Drew is unavailable?  It would have been tough for all of these things to happen with Irving, but without him, they become nearly impossible.

In conclusion, the Warriors should get plenty of credit here.  They found a LeBron defender in Iguodala, who defended him extremely well the entire night, as well as on the last play of regulation.  In my Finals preview last week, I only mentioned Iguodala once, and that was a mistake; I forgot about ‘Dre.  However, we cannot forget about how this series is basically over if the Cavs don’t have Irving for the rest of the series.

Without him, the Cavaliers are done, already.

UPDATE: As I wrote this article, I said I would update it with potential Kyrie news.  Well, here it is.  Back to Zillgitt:

My guess now is that the series ends in a sweep.  The Cavs just don’t have enough to beat these Warriors.

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Handicapping the 2015 NBA Finals

As you probably already know, the matchup for the 2015 NBA Finals is set.  The Warriors and Cavaliers will be squaring off for the Larry O’Brien trophy, but first, they’ll be healing key injuries, as there is an eight day layoff between the end of the Conference Finals and the NBA Finals; that is a new NBA record. There are two key injuries for the Cavaliers in this series.  One is star point guard Kyrie Irving, who has been dealing with knee tendinitis since midway through the Cavaliers’ conference final series against the Bulls.  The other is to power forward Kevin Love, who separated his shoulder in the team’s first round series; he won’t be back.  The key injury for the Warriors is to Steph Curry’s running mate, Klay Thompson.  He suffered an ear laceration after being accidentally kneed in the face in Game 5 of the West Finals by the Rockets’ Trevor Ariza: (Warning: some may find video graphic and/or disturbing.)

That unsurprisingly manifested itself into concussion-like symptoms which was changed today to, *stunner*, a concussion. (This is pathetic, especially in these times of medical research and caution with regards to head injuries, but that’s another article for another time.)  Warriors’ back-up power forward Marreese Speights has been out with a right calf injury, but he could be available to play after the long layoff.

As for the two teams’ seasons?  Let’s start with the Cavaliers.  They played hot and cold at the beginning of the season, and were staring straight down the barrel at a 19-20 record and a low playoff seed on January 13th.  During their struggles, LeBron James was never really healthy, and as a result, took time off to heal from various injuries. After that, however, they ripped off a twelve-game winning streak, and catapulted up the Eastern Conference standings in the process; LeBron was back to his healthy and MVP-candidate self.  Most importantly, however, the team escaped the season largely healthy and unscathed, save for Anderson Varejao, who tore his Achilles on December 23; news has recently surfaced that Varejao could be activated for the Finals. However, disaster struck on April 26th, when in game 4 of the Cavs-Celtics series, Love separated his shoulder fighting for a rebound with the Celtics’ Kelly Olynyk. The team has pressed on, however, without Love, and newly-pressed starter Tristan Thompson has given the team another dimension of toughness and grit, especially with his rebounding.  They defeated the Bulls in the Conference Semis in six games and then swept the 60-win Hawks in the Conference Finals.  They were expected to be here.  as for the other team…

The Warriors, with a rookie head coach (Steve Kerr) and a team that returned most of the same players off of last year’s team that lost to the Clippers in the 2014 Playoffs’ first round, were simply not expected to win or compete for a title this year, especially in the stacked Western Conference.  This year, however, they made their grand entrance into the league’s title discussion, in more ways than one:

Most surprising about the Warriors emergence, however, has been the utter dominance with which they have defeated their opponents. They outscored opposing teams by an average of 10.1 (10.1!) points per game this year, and their true dominance came at home. They were 39-2 in the regular season, and their only two regular season losses came at the hands of the Spurs and Bulls.  They’ve only lost once at home in these playoffs, and that was to the Grizzlies in the second round.  Point being, this team is nearly impossible to beat at the place they call “Roar-acle”, and in the one game the Cavaliers played there this season on January 9th, the Warriors came out with a 112-94 victory.  Simply put, the Cavs need to win at least one road game, but more likely two, to win a championship, and I just don’t know if they can.

As for the two teams now, the Warriors are still remarkably healthy. Other than the Thompson and Speights injuries, they basically have none.  They survived a scare when Steph Curry suffered a vicious fall in game 4 of the team’s Western Conference Finals series against the Rockets.  However, Curry was largely unhurt, and came back to the game.  Video of the fall can be found right here: (Warning: video may be disturbing for some.)

The difficulty for the Cavaliers in this series is, assuming they are both able to play, stopping Golden State’s splash brothers: Thompson and Curry.  They should be guarded in this series by Irving and J.R. Smith respectively, and that could cause Cleveland big problems. Look for the Cavaliers to play Matthew Dellavedova more in this series, as he is a defensive nuisance who will look to instigate trouble with the Warriors players.  Another matchup problem for the Cavaliers is Draymond Green, whose shooting, defensive, and play-making ability will keep the Cavs on their toes at both ends of the floor.  On defense, he will assuredly have the assignment of guarding LeBron, and LeBron may guard him for the Cavs defense as well. Andrew Bogut has also played well for the Warriors these playoffs, averaging nearly nine rebounds per game, serving as a catalyst for the Dubs’ wide open offense, and protecting the rim on defense.  The same can be said for back up center Festus Ezeli, who has spelled Bogut when he has had to go to the bench for foul trouble or rest.

The Cavaliers can counter Golden State with jump shooting of their own.  Smith and Irving are excellent jump shooters in their own right, and, if given to him, LeBron can spray the defense with his as well.  If bench players James Jones, Dellavedova, and Iman Shumpert get open looks, they are all quite dangerous as well.  However, the Cavaliers will have to win this series with their defense. They allowed 98.7 points per game in the regular season, good for 13th in the NBA. However, in the Playoffs, that number has sunk to 92.6 points per game. Also, they have allowed 91.7 points per contest without Love around, a harbinger of the Tristan Thompson effect (Hint, hint: Thompson is a better defender than Love).  Their defense was much maligned in the regular season, but it has really tightened up in these Playoffs.  With much concern for the Cavs in Cleveland and beyond from writers and those who follow the sport (including myself), their defense has helped ensure their playoff longevity.  Thompson and Timofey Mozgov, the team’s big men, need to help the team win the rebounding battle, which they should be able to do, considering that they are first in these Playoffs with a rebound differential of +6.5. (The Warriors are third in that category in the playoffs at +4.0.)  This is how they secure the upset and bring a title, something, anything back to Cleveland for the first time since 1964.

My feeling about this series is that the Warriors are an absolute juggernaut. They are difficult to stop, and even though some analysts think that a jump shooting team cannot win an NBA title, I disagree. Here’s why: they’re not just a jump shooting team offensively.  They penetrate, pass for open shots, and the jump shots they take are usually good ones.  The jump shots that Curry and Thompson take may not always look like good shots, but with them, any shot they take can go in, so is there such a thing as a bad one?

Most of all, the Warriors can win in many different ways, and I don’t think the Cavs’ defense can slow them down for a full game.  Take their last game against the Rockets, for example.  Curry was not having his best game and Thompson missed virtually the entire second half with foul trouble and his concussion (*-like symptoms*). The Warriors still won by 14 because a new player emerged in the fourth quarter: Harrison Barnes.  He kept the team afloat offensively, and their defense was the catalyst for their offense, causing MVP runner-up James Harden to turn the ball over 13 times, a new NBA record.  They consistently find new ways to win, and who knows, maybe another player emerges at a critical juncture for Golden State. Maybe it’s Leandro Barbosa, Shaun Livingston or Andre Iguodala off the bench that helps them win an all-important game down the stretch.  Or maybe it’s Curry and Thompson, like we all expect.

Like I expect.

While the Cavaliers have a fighting chance because of James, Irving, and their defense, I don’t see many (if any) ways that they can win this series.  It will be competitive, and maybe more competitive than it should be, because I think the Cavaliers are over-matched here.

The Warriors will win this series in six games. How do you feel about that, Riley Curry?

All statistics courtesy of espn.com and Basketball-Reference

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Assessing the Cavaliers Chances Without Kevin Love

Even though the Cavaliers finished off the Celtics in a sweep today with a 101-93 win, they paid the price for it.  In the first quarter, the Celtics’ Kelly Olynyk and Cleveland’s Kevin Love were chasing a loose ball near the sideline when Olynyk appeared to foul love by holding his left arm.  Love then appeared to grimace in pain, and he was in a lot of it; he grabbed his shoulder and ran toward the bench area.  Then, something strange happened.  Love didn’t stop at the bench to receive attention; he ran (sprinted, actually) toward the Cavs’ locker room.  While the severity of the injury is not yet known, Love missed the remainder of the game and was diagnosed with a dislocated or separated shoulder.  He will receive more medical attention when the team returns to Cleveland.  For his part, Love felt that the play was dirty and said so after the game, saying: “I thought it was a bush-league play.  I have no doubt in my mind that he did it on purpose.”  While we should not accuse Olynyk of foul play, we can assess if the Cavs have any chance to win the championship without him.

First, the important thing: the average timetable of return from this type of injury is normally four weeks.  That would bring him back for around game 3 or 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals if his team gets that far without him. Assuming the Bulls close out Milwaukee at some point, there will be major matchup problems for the Cavaliers to compensate for.  For example, Love would be matched up on Pau Gasol of the Bulls.  While Love’s defense is not the greatest, what he brings on the offensive end cannot be ignored.  His ability to space the floor and make life easier for LeBron James and Kyrie Irving to create shots will be missed.

Speaking of Love’s three point shooting, 41.2% of his field goal attempts this season have been from three point range, a career high.  While much has been made of this as a negative for Love, as all of his major statistics have dropped this season, it could have been expected with his being traded from the Timberwolves last season.  However, his ability to shoot three pointers is vital because it brings the big men of other teams out to the perimeter, making them guard him at least 20 feet away from the baskets.  This creates more room for jump shots, and even if they are missed, allows bigs like Timofey Mozgov and Tristan Thompson the ability for easy putbacks.  So the next time you complain about Love staying out at the perimeter too much, realize that he is actually helping his team that way.

In one of my previous articles, I had picked the Cavaliers and the Bulls to play each other in the conference semifinals.  In that same article, I said that the Cavaliers would win said series in seven games.  Well, that was then and this is now.  I do not believe that the Cavaliers can beat the Bulls without Kevin Love.  While it is not the same type of backbreaking injury such as the torn ACL that Bulls star Derrick Rose suffered in the first game of the 2012 playoffs, it should make the difference between the Cavaliers winning the series by a hair to them losing it by a hair. While they will not lose a step defensively with the athletic Tristan Thompson manning Love’s position, the team will suffer offensively, as Thompson cannot shoot jump shots very well.  This inability to spread out the defense will also lead to the Bulls being able to help/double team on LeBron and Kyrie.  This will lead to more difficult shots, and while Thompson is a better offensive rebounder than Love, getting shots to go in in the first place will be an enormous task.

Another thing to think about is how long J.R. Smith will be out after his decking of the Celtics Jae Crowder.  Early in the third quarter, Smith and Crowder were fighting underneath for position.  Smith hit Crowder hard on the jaw, and Crowder also suffered a nasty leg injury on the play.  After the game, Smith said he was “nervous as hell” about a potential suspension.  This is important because Smith, in the starting lineup, has an innate ability to shoot three pointers off the catch rather than having to dribble to create.  If forced to sit, it is unknown who would start in his place.  Potential replacements include backup point guard Matthew Dellavedova, or, in the more likely solution, defensive ace Iman Shumpert.  Both are solid three-point shooters, but are not as good as Smith.

Given the injury and impending suspension, look for the Cavaliers to struggle.  Because the Bulls are coming.

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NBA Playoff Preview

East First Round

(1)Hawks vs. (8)Nets: Hawks in 4

(4)Raptors vs. (5)Wizards: Raptors in 6

(2)Cavaliers vs. (7) Celtics: Cavaliers in 5

(3)Bulls vs. (6)Bucks: Bulls in 6

Discussion: The Hawks easily dispatch of and sweep the Nets like they have in the regular season.  The Raptors defeat the Wizards in a series of two fairly evenly matched teams.  The Celtics take a game (most likely game 1) from the Cavs, a team greatly lacking in playoff experience who will come out flat and nervous.  But don’t expect the upset here.  Finally, the Bucks outperform expectations but eventually succumb to the superior Bulls.

West First Round

(1)Warriors vs. (8)Pelicans: Warriors in 5

(4)Trail Blazers vs. (5)Grizzlies: Grizzlies in 6

(2)Rockets vs. (7)Mavericks: Rockets in 7

(3)Clippers vs. (6)Spurs: Spurs in 6

Discussion: The Pelicans, fresh off their first playoff berth since 2011, take a game from the Warriors but cannot hang in the series.  In a series of complete attrition, the Grizzlies survive the Trial Blazers; both teams are suffering from critical injuries.  The Rockets-Mavericks series is a toss-up, but the advantage goes to the team with home court.  Finally, the Spurs defeat the Clippers and set up a second-round date with Houston.

East Semifinals

(1)Hawks vs. (4)Raptors: Hawks in 6

(2)Cavaliers vs. (3)Bulls: Cavaliers in 7

Discussion:  The Hawks defeat the Raptors in 6.  The Hawks have not been to a Conference Finals since 1970.  The Cavaliers defeat the Bulls in what could arguably end up as the best series in the playoffs, as both teams are profusely talented and evenly matched.

West Semifinals

(1)Warriors vs. (5)Grizzlies: Warriors in 6

(2)Rockets vs. (6)Spurs: Spurs in 6

Discussion: The Warriors dispose of a Grizzlies team that will likely be without starting PG Mike Conley for the playoffs.  The Spurs defeat the Rockets.  Crazy guess: the Spurs employ either a Hack-a-Smith strategy (Josh Smith: 49% Free-throw shooter) or play Hack-a-Howard (53% Free-throw shooter).

Conference Finals

(1)Hawks vs. (2)Cavaliers: Cavaliers in 6

(1)Warriors vs. (6)Spurs: Spurs in 6

Discussion: Both road teams prevail here.  The Cavaliers overwhelming talent overtakes the Hawks teamwork and discipline.  The Spurs defeat the Warriors in a battle of the New Guard vs. the Old Guard in the NBA.  This sets up the LeBron vs. the Spurs rematch for a third straight year.

NBA Finals

Cavaliers vs. Spurs: Cavaliers in 7

Cleveland finally gets its title.  This Cavs team is obviously far better than last year’s Cavs team and the play of Kyrie Irving at the point will be the difference.  Bold prediction: Kyrie will win Finals MVP.  The Cavs win this series by the slimmest of margins, in 7 games.

Enjoy the playoffs everybody!