Posted on

Don’t Stop Believing: The San Francisco Giants Have a Chance

The year is 2015; you probably are keenly aware to this fact, unless you either have been living under a rock or are Andre Dawson.

Anyway, 2015 has been a pretty big year in our country to date. Marriage equality was legalized nationwide, American Pharoah won the Horse Racing Triple Crown, Brian Williams made up some things, and the U.S. Women’s Soccer Team won the World Cup.  You want to know what else 2015 has been, and still is?  An odd-numbered year.

And odd-numbered years typically spell doom for the San Francisco Giants.

Here are the results for the Giants from the last three odd-numbered seasons.  The 2011 and 2013 seasons are those in which the Giants were coming off of World Series victories:

  1. 2009: 88-74, 2nd place NL West, missed Playoffs
  2. 2011: 86-76, 2nd place NL West, missed Playoffs
  3. 2013: 76-86, T-3rd place NL West, missed Playoffs

And here are the results from the last three even numbered years:

  1. 2010: 92-70, won NL West, won World Series
  2. 2012: 94-68, won NL West, won World Series
  3. 2014: 88-74, won NL Wild Card, won World Series

The Giants have become what is easily the most bizarre dynasty in sports.  They have been an October dynasty in even-numbered years and a middle-of-the-road team in odd-numbered years.

So how have the Giants done this year?  Not too badly, actually. They’re 47-43 after defeating the Diamondbacks 6-5 in 12 innings last night.  This, along with a Cubs loss to the Braves, leaves San Fran just one game back of the second and final Wild Card spot in the National League.  Statistically, they are not faring too badly, especially compared to last year.

They rank 11th in baseball in runs scored this season; interestingly enough, they only ranked 12th in the league in that category last year. As you are aware, I like to use a stat called BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) as a barometer of future hitting success.  The Giants’ BABIP this season is .319, which is third in baseball.  This may very well go down, as their BABIP last season was .304, which was 10th in baseball.  However, out of the nine teams ahead of them in this category, exactly zero of them got to their respective League Championship Series.

The Giants were not an overly impressive home run hitting team a year ago, hitting just 132 of them, short of the league average of 140. This season, they’ve hit 72 through 90 games, and they’re on pace for just 130 this time around.  Is being a below average home run hitting team a hindrance in October?  Not really.  Last season, the Orioles ranked first in the league in home runs, and made it to the ALCS doing so.  However, the Cardinals and Royals were 29th and last in the league, respectively, and they were both one of the last four teams standing, too.  It’s not a huge deal.

How they do win at the plate is with a high batting average.  They hit .255 as a team last season, and this is significant because all of the last four teams standing at the end of last season were above the league average of .253.  They’re hitting .272 this season, which is tied for second in the game.  Statistically, they stack up as a team that can make some noise in October… if they make it there.

Now, let’s take a look at their lineup on an individual basis.  While Buster Posey and Joe Panik have been the most consistent hitters on the team, the best offseason addition for the team has assuredly been outfielder Nori Aoki.  He’s hitting .317 with a .383 on-base percentage and a .333 BABIP.  He also has a 5.8% strikeout percentage, which is the lowest K% in baseball.  While Aoki has been valuable, he has also been out of the lineup since June 20 with an injury to his right fibula. Getting him back soon will be crucial to the Giants postseason hopes, and according to CBSSports.com, he’s coming back in two weeks.

However, the obvious MVP of this team and one of the best players in the game today is Buster Posey.  He leads the team in all the major statistical categories and can be considered a National League MVP candidate.  He’s even been compared to Johnny Bench, writes Matt Kawahara of the Sacramento Bee:

At age 21

Bench: Batted .293 with 26 home runs and 90 RBIs for the Reds, finishing 13th in the N.L. MVP race and making his second All-Star team.

Posey: Won the Johnny Bench Award, given to college baseball’s top catcher, in his junior year at Florida State.

They catch and pitch

Bench: Longtime spokesman for Krylon paint: “No runs, no drips, no errors.”

Posey: Appears in recent Esurance commercial in full catcher’s gear, ready to help a woman deliver her baby: “I’m sort of your doctor. We both wear gloves, and we both deliver in the clutch.”

Bench comparisons aside, Posey is exactly what you think he is: the best catcher in baseball and the best player on the team.

But the part of the Giants lineup, and particularly their defense, that may very well be most important to their playoff aspirations is the middle infield.  With over .300 hitter Joe Panik at second and defensive ace Brandon Crawford at short, the combination has benefited both the team’s defense as well as its hitting.  They might be the most important players on the team, writes David Schoenfield of ESPN:

The middle infield pair made the All-Star team and deservedly so. Both have added power — Crawford ranks 11th in the NL in extra-base hits, while Panik has more than Troy Tulowitzki,Buster Posey or Justin Upton — to go with their excellent defense. The Giants’homegrown infield has been huge because the rotation has been a weakness.Matt Cain and Jake Peavy have returned from the DL, but you don’t know what to expect from them. The offense will have to lead the Giants back to the postseason.

The Giants are doing it differently this year, but with Crawford, Panik, Posey and a healthy Aoki, they could be back in the Postseason.

As for the rotation?  It hasn’t been quite as good as it was last season. Tim Lincecum had been pitching slightly better than he did last season, but he got hit on the arm with a line drive on June 27 and it is unclear when he will return to the team.  Madison Bumgarner’s numbers have been somewhat worse this season (his ERA has jumped from 2.98 to 3.33), but he’s still been very valuable to the team, and if his October performance from last season is any indication, he can really turn it on come playoff time.

Another solid pitcher in the rotation this season has been 27-year old rookie Chris Heston.  Heston was supposed to be simply a fill-in for injured starter Matt Cain, but he has performed more than well enough to stay in the rotation full-time.  His numbers are remarkably similar to MadBum’s this season, and he has really been the Giants’ 1-A pitcher in the rotation.  However, his emergence has caused issues in the rotation with the returns of Cain, Jake Peavy, and Tim Hudson.

As Andrew Baggarly of Giants Extra documents, Bruce Bochy has apparently made his decision in terms of who to take out of the rotation:

With Tim Hudson set to be activated to start Monday at San Diego and Chris Heston retaining his place in the rotation on Tuesday, Bochy said he intends to use Ryan Vogelsong in a long relief role.

That didn’t go so well for Vogelsong in April, when he allowed five runs and a whopping 19 baserunners in 5 2/3 innings over two relief outings.

“More than anything, he’s got to be patient,” Bochy said. “Learn from this last experience. Get that out of his head and be ready to go at any time.”

Vogelsong has been better than Hudson as a starter this season, with a better ERA, WAR, and K/9.  This is probably not the right decision even with Hudson in his last season, but who am I to doubt a manager who has won three out of the last five World Series?  He knows what he’s doing.  Most (future) Hall of Fame managers do.

The bullpen has been generally good and Santiago Casilla has performed well in the closer’s role.  If baseball history has taught us anything, it’s that closing out games is pretty darn important.

However, at the end of each World Series clincher the Giants have won, there has been a different pitcher on the mound to close it out (2010: Brian Wilson, 2012: Sergio Romo, 2014: Bumgarner).  But their bullpen is good enough to survive, and it will do so if it gets to October.

Here is the thing with the Giants: they probably still have a chance to win the division.  They’re only four games back of the first-place Dodgers, and while they only have three games left against Los Angeles, there is still a lot of baseball left to be played.  But, let’s say they are left to contending for the last Wild Card spot with the Cubs and Mets.  To be honest, I don’t think either team has enough to make the playoffs, especially in the superior National League.

So, if the Giants get the final spot, they will be locked in the Wild Card game with either the Pirates or Cardinals.  It’s fairly apparent that both of those teams are better than the Giants, but one of them will be stuck hosting the one-game playoff.  And, in a single game, to decide two teams’ playoff fates, with Bumgarner on the hill?  Anything can happen in that scenario.

The Giants have a chance, even in this, an odd-numbered year.  They may very well make the playoffs this year, and even if they don’t, we may be able to put the curse of the odd numbers to bed.

But hold on to that feeling, Giants fans: your team has a chance.

Posted on

Jose Iglesias Is the Best Shortstop in Baseball

Detroit Tigers Shortstop Jose Iglesias was elected to the first All-Star game of his career in 2015, and rightfully so.  After missing all of 2014 after sustaining stress fractures to both of his shins, Iglesias is having the best season of his career, hitting .314.  He is also on pace for the best figures of his career in hits and RBI, and he has already set career highs in stolen bases and walks.  While this year is the first full year of his career, he may be the best all-around shortstop in the game already.

One of the reasons why I think so highly of Iglesias is his defense. While he may not be the best defensive shortstop in the game (he ranks eighth in the defense statistic on FanGraphs), he is certainly one of the top three.  While Andrelton Simmons, Adieny Hechavarria and others could be considered better defensive shortstops, Iglesias deserves to be in the same conversation every bit as much as they do.

To demonstrate my point, Iglesias made a phenomenal play in the eighth inning of the All-Star Game that is eerily similar to a play you would’ve expected a recently retired shortstop that wore #2 to make (Spoiler Alert: it’s Derek Jeter). Anyway, here is the play, in which he guns down Yasmani Grandal of the Dodgers in plenty of time for the out:

Plays like that are why Iglesias is so good.  The scary part for the rest of the league is that he makes them on a regular basis.  Check out these highlights of his defensive wizardry from just the first half of this year:

These plays and others clearly show that Iglesias is at least the best defensive shortstop in the American League, and one of the best in baseball.  Now, however, it’s time to delve into the dreaded statistical argument behind Iglesias’ claim to the Major League Baseball Shortstop throne.

Here is a not-so-obvious reason why I say that Iglesias is the best shortstop in the game: it’s the weakest defensive position in baseball. The leader in WAR (wins above replacement) at the position is the Giants’ Brandon Crawford (2.9), and he is only tied for 24th among hitters.  In fact, among all the leaders in WAR at their positions, with the exception of DH, Crawford’s figure is lowest among them.  That means that if you take all of the leaders in WAR at every fielding position and put them at their respective posts, the shortstop position would be the weakest, at least in terms of the good old WAR statistic.

Some may not put any value to defense at the position; as Billy Beane said in the 2011 movie “Moneyball”, “His fielding does not matter.” (Italics mine).  However, this surely does not apply to the shortstop position.  This is what an anonymous Senior Bleacher Report analyst wrote about the difficulty of the position back in 2008:

The question is whether shortstop is more difficult than third.

Both see a good amount of action. Both see grass-cutters on a regular basis. Both are expected to cover a serious amount of ground to be elite. Both have complicated rotational duties on specialty plays. Both must have cannons hanging from the right shoulder. Both must have velvety hands and nimble footwork.
It comes down to a matter of degree.

The shortstop sees a little more action. Third probably sees a higher number of vicious “chances” and the most dangerous ones. But short must cover more ground, rotate to cover both second and third routinely, have a better arm, have better hands, and have better feet. The difference is not extreme in any instance, but there is a difference.

And it can be seen, not in the best players at the positions, but in the average ones.

Your average shortstop could move to third. Your average third-sacker could certainly NOT move to short. They would either be too slow or to awkward or too, uh, mentally limited.

That is why most pro infielders (with the exception of the huge first basemen) were shortstops at some point in their careers. They started off as the best athlete and were put at SS. At a certain level, their defense became average for the spot, so they were moved to another position.

Check it out, even some catchers and pitchers used to be shortstops.

This is really very true.  Defense is very important in baseball, but it is never as important as it is at the action-filled shortstop position. That’s what makes Iglesias so great, especially when you consider his hitting numbers; he plays all-world defense and is one of the best hitting players at his position, too.  Not easy.

So how about his hitting, then?  While you can make fun of his singles-hitting propensity (his ISO (Isolated Power) is .059, which is, err, low), his aforementioned batting average and on-base percentage (.364) are both tops at the position just to the left of second base. While he may not hit for power (he has one home run), he hits for average and gets on base, which are two things that have become increasingly difficult in the new golden age of pitching in professional baseball.

Here is another important thing: Jose Iglesias just does not strike out. His K% is 9.5%, and the only shortstop with a better K% is Andrelton Simmons.  However, Simmons is but a .254 hitter, and his BB% (walk percentage) is lower than that of Mr. Iglesias.  Also, Jose has a very solid BABIP of .343, third at his position.  However, the two players ahead of him (Xander Bogaerts and Troy Tulowitzki) have K%s of 14.9% and 20.9%, respectively.  If they struck out less, their BABIPs would be lower because they’d be putting the ball in play more often.

Another reason why the best shortstop in baseball debate has become a thing?  It’s simple: we probably haven’t thought about it since 1996. Those who follow the game (and those who don’t) simply considered Derek Jeter the best all-around shortstop in baseball, and that was that.  Even when Jeter neared the end of his career, broke his ankle, and slowed down as age took its toll on his body, we still gave him the benefit of the doubt because of his track record.  There is no de facto #1 shortstop in baseball anymore; we have to find him ourselves.

That person is Iglesias.  The combination of fielding and hitting is one that is rarely seen in the game of baseball, and it is especially difficult to pull off at the hardest position to play in the field, shortstop.  There is only one person in the game that can say he does it better than anyone else at the spot, and his name is Jose Iglesias.

Jose Iglesias may not be the best hitting shortstop in baseball.

Jose Iglesias may not be the best defensive shortstop in baseball.

But Jose Iglesias is definitely the best all-around shortstop in baseball.

Posted on

Corey Kluber Is the Unluckiest Pitcher in Baseball

There are two pitchers on the same team, in the same starting rotation.  Pitcher A is second in baseball in innings pitched and third in the league in strikeouts.  Pitcher B has a 4.07 ERA and 35 less strikeouts than Pitcher A.  Pitcher B has only thrown 108.1 innings, a whole 25 innings short of Pitcher A’s innings total.  However, here is the twist: Pitcher A is 4-10.  Pitcher B is 10-7.

Pitcher B is the Cleveland Indians’ Carlos Carrasco.  Pitcher A is Indians’ ace and defending Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber.

Kluber pitched eight innings against the A’s on Sunday, giving up only two runs on just four hits.  However, he was the hard-luck loser (again) as the Tribe were shut out on two hits.  This has become a trend in Kluber’s starts, according to ESPN Stats and Info:

Yowzers.  The Indians offense has not been great this season (t-21st in runs scored, 20th in batting average) but the lack of run support it has given Kluber is startling.

Kluber’s numbers, as well as his season to date, should be an exposé to a simple fact: win-loss record is not important.  To demonstrate my point, I’ll give you a list of pitchers with better records than Kluber but far worse Earned Run Averages:

  1. Jeremy Guthrie, KC (7-5, 5.36 ERA)
  2. Drew Hutchison, TOR (8-2, 5.33 ERA)
  3. Colby Lewis, TEX (8-4, 4.77 ERA)
  4. Nathan Eovaldi, NYY (9-2, 4.50 ERA)

So how do they stack up with other pitchers with better ERAs and less impressive win-loss records?  Well…

  1. Shelby Miller, ATL (5-5, 2.38 ERA)
  2. Yovani Gallardo, TEX (7-8, 2.68 ERA)
  3. Wei-Yin Chen, BAL (4-5, 2.78 ERA)
  4. Francisco Liriano, PIT (5-6, 2.98 ERA)
  5. Corey Kluber, CLE (4-10, 3.38 ERA)

However, Kluber is not going to get the national attention he deserves; while he is still having a great season, win-loss record will be the only thing that matters when it comes to Kluber’s Cy Young Award chances.  Here are the last ten Cy Young winners from Kluber’s league, the American League.

  1. 2005: Bartolo Colon, LAA (21-8, 3.48 ERA)
  2. 2006: Johan Santana, MIN (19-6, 2.77 ERA)
  3. 2007: CC Sabathia, CLE (19-7, 3.21 ERA)
  4. 2008: Cliff Lee, CLE (22-3, 2.54 ERA)
  5. 2009: Zack Grienke, KC (16-8, 2.16 ERA)
  6. 2010: Felix Hernandez, SEA (13-12, 2.27 ERA)
  7. 2011: Justin Verlander, DET (24-5, 2.40 ERA)
  8. 2012: David Price, TB (20-5, 2.56 ERA)
  9. 2013: Max Scherzer, DET (21-3, 2.90 ERA)
  10. 2014: Corey Kluber, CLE (18-9, 2.44 ERA)

All of those pitchers have a positive W-L record.  Not that Kluber is going to or should win the award this year; Sonny Gray, Chris Sale, Dallas Keuchel and others are far, far more deserving.  But Kluber was assuredly deserving of making the All-Star team, and it’s a shame that one of the best pitchers in baseball was denied a spot in the game because of his record.

MLB.com Indians reporter Jordan Bastian wrote about this last week:

In 11 of Kluber’s 17 starts, Cleveland’s offense has scored two or fewer runs. The four runs he received while the pitcher of record Thursday were the most he’s had to work with since the lineup spotted him five runs May 28. Entering his start against Tampa Bay, Kluber’s 2.28 run support average was the worst rate in the Majors among qualified starting pitchers.
That has played a large role in Kluber’s win-loss record.

When it comes to peripheral statistics, it could be argued that Kluber has performed as one of the top five starting pitchers in the Majors. With his performance against the Rays, Kluber moved into a tie with White Sox ace Chris Sale for the most strikeouts (141) in baseball. The righty also ranked second in baseball in innings (118 2/3), third in WAR (3.5, per Fangraphs.com), fourth in strikeouts per nine innings (10.69) and sixth in strikeout-to-walk ratio (5.88).

Kluber is one of the top five pitchers in baseball.  Some other stats also support this statement.

In a statistic called FIP (fielding-independent pitching), Kluber ranks fourth in the Bigs at 2.51; this is in sharp contrast to his real ERA, 3.38.  This stat is used to isolate defense and luck from the player’s actual pitching.  It shows that were it not for bad luck and some shoddy defense, Kluber would be seen by everyone as one of the best pitchers in the game, which he obviously is.

Another stat that is very similar to FIP is xFIP (expected fielding independent pitching).  It is basically what we would expect a player’s fielding independent ERA to be over the course of a season.  Kluber’s xFIP is almost as spectacular as his FIP; it’s 2.66, which is fifth in baseball.  His xFIP is not much different than his FIP, which means that his excellence is sustainable.  He is clearly one of the best pitchers in the game.

Finally, the most simple stat that demonstrates how stealthily good Kluber has been is WAR.  WAR stands for “wins above replacement” and it is a figure of how replacing Kluber with someone else in the starting rotation would go.  Kluber’s WAR is 3.9, good for third among pitchers in the game.  The first and second best pitchers by WAR are Max Scherzer and Chris Sale, my choices for the Cy Young Award from each league.

By now, you probably get my drift; Corey Kluber is the most underrated (and least fortunate) pitcher in baseball. He is probably one of the top ten pitchers in the game, and even though his record does not give him the credit he deserves, all of his other statistics do.  He had better luck last year in his Cy Young campaign, and even though he isn’t having the same luck he did last year, that shouldn’t take away from the job he has done this season.

The only thing is, he’s the unluckiest pitcher in baseball.

Posted on

A Summary of the Dallas Mavericks’ Offseason

The Dallas Mavericks were one of the teams that had very high hopes going into this year’s free agency.  They had chances at getting stars like LaMarcus Aldridge, DeAndre Jordan, and others.  They lost out on Aldridge when he signed with the Spurs on July 4, but they cushioned the blow with the signing of DeAndre Jordan the day before.  However, Jordan began having second thoughts soon after, and on July 8, the day before players could start signing contracts, the race was on to sign him:

Jordan eventually re-signed with the Clippers after they stayed at his Houston home until midnight that evening, not letting anyone get in, per Yahoo Sports’ Adrian Wojnarowski:

The sudden loss of Jordan threw the Mavericks into panic mode. They had already signed shooting guard Wesley Matthews from the Trail Blazers, and he is coming off an Achilles injury that forced him to miss the last 22 games of last season.  Matthews’s original contract was supposed to be $57 million over deandrejordan1four years with Jordan also under contract.  However, without Jordan, the Mavericks have decided to push Matthews’ contract to $70 million over four years instead of using the extra money for other acquisitions.

Having already lost last year’s starting center, Tyson Chandler, to the Suns, Dallas did not have any starting centers on the roster and therefore needed to sign one.  They promptly traded a second-round pick to the Bucks for Zaza Pachulia, the 31-year old center who is the only active NBA player to hail from the country of Georgia. While it doesn’t seem like Pachulia is a step up from Chandler, last season’s on/off numbers of both players suggest otherwise.

These tables from Basketball-Reference show Pachulia’s on/off numbers last season, with the first row being “on court”, the second row being “off court”, and the third column being the difference:

Now here are Chandler’s on/off numbers from last year.  The same rules apply:

As you can see, even though Chandler is a slightly better per game rebounder, the Mavericks did better without him on the floor than the Bucks did without Zaza.  There is a direct correlation between their rebound% and their per 36 minutes numbers: Pachulia is better in both.

Turner Sports’ David Aldridge summed up the pick-up in this tweet:

While losing Chandler hurt, and losing Jordan hurt more, Pachulia can at least fill the void left by Chandler.  I actually think he may very well be better.

Next, we will revisit the signing of Wesley Matthews.  Matthews was having what was possibly the best season of his career last season for the Trail Blazers.  While he set a career high for rebounds per game, eFG%, and field goal attempts, his on/off numbers are not as drastic as Pachulia’s:

Obviously, Matthews’ eFG% is higher than the others because of his three-point shooting. However, it is interesting that he only adds 6.8 points per game for his team per 100 possessions, as exemplified by his offensive rating. However, he is a jack-of-all-trades, master of none type of basketball player, a slight positive for his team in all areas of the game. Even though he is coming off a great season with a playoff team, he is also coming off of this.  (Warning: Video/Vine may be extremely disturbing for some.)

Now, we will take a look at Monta Ellis’ on/off statistics from last year; Ellis left Dallas to sign of four-year, $44 million deal with the Pacers this offseason.  Matthews is replacing him, essentially.

As you can see, while Ellis is more of a positive in eFG% and Turnover%, he is a negative or only a slight positive in all of the other areas.  Matthews, theoretically, should be better for the Mavericks than Ellis was.  However, history has not been kind to those with Achilles ruptures.  See: Elton Brand.

Brand had stayed fairly healthy for the majority of his career, from his being drafted #1 overall in 1999 by the Bulls to the 2006-07 season with the Clippers.  However, he ruptured his Achilles tendon in a workout in August 2007, and missed all but eight games in the ’07-’08 season.  His averages dropped across the board for the rest of his career.  Luckily, he is still playing, but he is in a bench role now for the Atlanta Hawks and is well past the prime of his career.

The point?  Brand was 28 on August 3, 2007, when the injury happened.  Matthews’ age at the time of his injury, on March 5, 2015? 27.  He is only a year younger than Brand was, but the history is simply eerie.  The risk of paying him $17.5 million per year, coming off the most dangerous injury a guard could possibly sustain, is enormous.  The best ability is availability, and the Mavericks lost it by letting Ellis go.

But rest assured, I have saved the most interesting signing for last: Deron Williams.

Mike Vaccaro of the New York Post wrote about Williams’ departure today:

He leaves his empty tenure as the franchise face of the Nets as perhaps the single-most forgettable would-be superstar in the history of New York sports.

That isn’t to say he was the least successful, or the most underachieving, or the most disappointing. You can vote him for any of those categories too, if you like, but those are whole separate issues.

Jason Bay was terrible as a Met. But believe me, Bay has not been forgotten, and his tenure in New York still gives Mets fans the bends. Carmelo Anthony might not have delivered on his promise to make the Knicks matter in a way that they mattered in the ’70s and in the ’90s, but you had better believe he is on the tip of every Knicks fan’s tongue, always, and at the forefront of their thoughts.
Williams is different. From the start, it was pretty clear he didn’t want to be here, whether “here” was in New Jersey or Brooklyn. Even when the Nets re-signed him to a $98 million max extension, he came across, instantly, as he if he were doing someone a favor pocketing all that cash.
The Nets moved heaven and earth — actually, worse, they moved an uncountable amount of assets — to surround Williams with the kinds of players he believed were of his status and to his liking, and were rewarded with one playoff series victory and hundreds of nights when Williams’ scowl and his brutal body language hinted he was being held in an unheated hut somewhere near Park Slope against his will.

Williams needs a change of scenery; it’s that simple.  Here’s to hoping that he plays better with the Mavericks.  With Brooklyn, he was *maybe* half the player that he was with the Jazz in his prime.  We don’t need stats to back up this fact: he didn’t care.  Will he in a Mavericks uniform?  It’s difficult to say, but Williams can’t possibly be worse than Rajon Rondo was with the Mavs last year.

So this has been the Mavericks’ offseason.  They went from being a back-end/fringe playoff team last year to, well… a fringe playoff team this year.  I think this because it is my best guess: I actually have no clue how they’ll do this year. Matthews will play well when he’s healthy, but history is not on his side with his injury.  Pachulia was a great addition and, in my view, a clear upgrade over Tyson Chandler. And Deron Williams is… Deron Williams.  I have no idea how he will play or how he will be used, but it will be fun to see how the experiment plays out.

There is a wide, wide range of possibilities for the Mavericks this season.  If all goes well and healthy, they could be a four or five seed. But that is so unlikely to happen, and, crazy as it sounds, Pachulia is the surest thing they got this offseason.  If I were to guess, I would leave Dallas out of the Playoffs next year.

Why?  Just ask Mark Cuban, and substitute “basketball” for “music” in the video.

Posted on

The National League MVP Debate is Not a Clown Question, Bro

With baseball entering the second half of the season this week, I’m going to take a look at the debate over who should be the MVP in the senior circuit.  The debate has mainly become about two players: Nationals OF Bryce Harper and Diamondbacks 1B Paul Goldschmidt. Harper is a slightly better power hitter than Goldschmidt, but Goldschmidt is a better base-stealer and hitter for average. The debate over this topic has been a very interesting one, but everyone, and I mean everyone has Harper winning the award by a wide margin.  Among them is Grantland baseball writer Jonah Keri:

When we checked in on Harper at the season’s quarter-way mark, he was both the runaway winner for NL MVP and in the midst of a historic season unmatched by any 22-year-old not named Ted Williams.

His second quarter has been punctuated by a couple of health scares. The first was downright terrifying, as Harper’s knee buckled when he tried to make a throw during a June 18 game against the Rays. That injury proved to be nothing more than a left hamstring strain, and Harper returned to the lineup two days later. Then, a week after that, Harper sat out three straight games — this time with a right hamstring strain — and returned on June 28.

Despite the two hamstring-induced starts and stops, the prognosis on Harper’s health remains positive, and he’s been an absolute monster when he’s been in the lineup. In the 56 plate appearances since that initial strain, he’s hit three homers and six doubles and posted a .340/.446/.660 line. With apologies to Paul Goldschmidt, Todd Frazier, and everyone else, this one isn’t particularly close: Harper has been the clear first-half NL MVP, and it’s his award to lose as we move forward.

I’ll tell you how I got to thinking about this debate.  I was talking to a friend of mine about it, and he said that Harper was the unquestioned MVP.  (His name is Danny Blomster, he’s a sabermetric genius, and you can check out his blog here.)  Anyhow, I championed the argument for Goldschmidt, beings that he is on a worse team and, while he hits in a better lineup than Harper, hits for a starting rotation whose best pitcher this season has been Robbie Ray.  My friend pulled out some sabermetric stats that supported the case for Harper, like his slugging percentage, OPS, and others.  So I looked at Goldschmidt and Harper, side-by-side, sabermetrically.  Here’s what I found.

Harper has a slightly higher on-base percentage (.471) than Goldschmidt (.466). If you take into account a stat called wOBA (weighted on-base average), Harper really begins to separate himself, as his wOBA is .490 to Goldy’s .452.  However, wOBA does not take into account intentional walks and stolen bases, and this is important. Goldschmidt has nineteen intentional walks to The Chosen One’s eight; the former’s total is tops in baseball.  Pitchers do not want to pitch to him, and that is why he has been intentionally walked so much.  Goldschmidt also has sixteen stolen bases to The Phenom’s four; he is trying to create runs for his team.

Many are voting for Harper based on his all around game.  That and the fact that he, you know, murders baseballs:

For most baseball fans, watching Bryce Harper play baseball is more aesthetically pleasing than watching Paul Goldschmidt play.  Fair enough; you get more home runs, and therefore more entertainment, out of watching Harper play.

However, another crucial advantage Goldschmidt has over Harper is in BABIP (Batting average on Balls in Play).  Goldschmidt’s .402 easily eclipses Harper’s .377.  For context, the average BABIP in the majors is .297, which means that the MVP candidates are really, really good. What does this mean?  It means Goldschmidt is a better pure hitter than Harper.  Luck does not play a role here, as Goldschmidt’s BABIP has been higher than Harper’s every year since 2012, Harper’s first in the league.  The sample size is plenty large enough.

Another interesting area of the debate is the K% (strikeout rate) and BB% (walk rate) of each player.  Goldschimdt wins here, but only slightly.  His K% is 19%, which is fractionally better than Harper’s 19.9 K%.  Both of those are actually around the league average of 20.1%, so both players are middle-of-the-road is this statistic.  Harper wins in BB% (19% to Goldschmidt’s 18.2%), but neither stat distinguishes one player as being better than the other.

Then there is the area of the game that can’t (or can) be quantified: coming up clutch.  As former Miami and NFL wide receiver Santana Moss once eloquently stated, “Big time players make big time plays in big time games.”

It’s no different in baseball.  With the presence of advanced stats in all sports, many have begun debunking the notion of “clutch”. However, whether you like it or not, it exists, as Russell Carleton of Fox’s “Just a Bit Outside” wrote last August:

Let’€™s clear a few things up. Clutch is not a result of having superior moral character, notwithstanding the plot of every sports movie. It is also not a guarantee that a hitter will always come through. My contention is a much more reserved one. Clutch is likely some combination of ability to deal with pressure combined with some particular change in approach, whether conscious or unconscious, that results in slight variations from what we might otherwise expect. For some, that change makes a hitter better and in some it makes him worse.

These analyses may not completely prove that clutch ability exists, but they do lay what I hope is a foundation for how we might continue the search. “€œClutch”€ is a way of saying that the situation matters because players are human. What we have here is an indicator that has reasonable (if not great) consistency across years, and it explains differences between players in how leverage affects them. More searching might find something with more consistency. Even then, year-to-year consistency is not the only way to establish that a measure is reflective of a player’€™s true talent level. Using a more tracking-based approach might help. Players can and do change, even within a season. There’€™s no reason clutch needs to be an enduring trait, rather than a state we can detect with some reliability. The rest is simply showing that the factor, whatever it is, can explain some of the differences between players’€™ performances in different leverage situations.

Clutch is actually a stat.  It is not one that can be sutained over time or predicted in the future, but it does well to describe a player’s past performance.  According to the Fangraphs.com version of the stat, Goldschmidt’s clutch rating in 2015 is 0.7, which, according to the site, is “above average”.  Meanwhile, Harper’s clutch rating is -1.41, and that is considered “poor”.  These numbers are not presented in the spirit that they will not change, but they have been telling through the first half of the season.  For context, the top two clutch hitters of all time, according to Fangraphs, are Tony Gwynn and Pete Rose; one of these players is in the Hall of Fame, and the other should be.  The third most statistically clutch hitter ever?  Scott Fletcher, a .262 career hitting middle infielder who played for six different teams over a 16-year career.  Clutch is not perfect, but it could be that stat that thinks that Jhonny Peralta is a better defensive shortstop than Andrelton Simmons.

Goldschmidt can also be considered a clutch player without statistical assistance, as SBNation Diamondbacks blog AZ Snake Pit writes:

It seems like every time the Diamondbacks need a little something extra, or a clutch hit, he’s there to deliver. The list of pitchers he’s traumatized is too long for this article, but even Tim Lincecum in his prime was no match.

And that ultimately is why Paul Goldschmidt is so weird: most of the time he’s not doing anything, maybe just hitting into a routine out or just hanging out at first base, but then he turns it on when it matters and BAM. Diamondbacks win. There is literally not comp for this type of player, because there is literally no other player that has ever done this, especially in baseball.

Isn’t it weird that a player would have a lot of mundane moments punctuated by moments of pure exhilaration? I’ve literally never seen that, have you???

Goldschmidt wins this category.  By a lot.  While clutch can be a volatile statistic, it does well to describe his performance this season, especially in comparison to Harper.  While clutch has its ups and downs, it does well here: it describes Goldschmidt as more of a clutch hitter than Harper.

Okay, so we’re now finished with the sabermatics sabermetrics of this debate.

Anyway, this discussion, as you can already tell, is extremely complicated.  Harper’s team has done better this season, record-wise (three games up on the Mets in the woeful NL East) , but it’s hard to argue that the Diamondbacks would be where they are right now (42-42) without Goldschmidt.  While Harper’s slugging percentage, OPS, and on-base percentage are better than Goldschmidt’s, I’m giving Goldschmidt the advantage.  The advantage for all of the above listed reasons, as well as a very simple one: the acronym MVP stands for “Most Valuable Player”.  If the award was for “Most Outstanding Player”, Harper would be the clear-cut winner.  But Goldschmidt has been more valuable for his team this season, and the stats demonstrate that.

Goldschmidt has the edge here.

All stats courtesy of fangraphs.com

Posted on

Let Rory McIlroy Play Soccer, People of the Internet

The 144th Open Championship is but ten days away, and one of the favorites-to-be at St. Andrews is (was?) Rory McIlroy. However, that changed on Saturday, and we found out about it at around 6:00 AM this morning.  From Rory’s Instagram:

 

Total rupture. According to a McIlroy spokeswoman, Rory has a “10% chance” of playing in next week’s British Open.  In the meantime, he is most certainly out of this weekend’s Scottish Open, and it would take a minor miracle for him to be back at the “home of golf” for the British Open starting next Thursday.

The injury, and the nature in which it was suffered, has understandably set off a debate on whether Rory should’ve been kicking around a soccer ball in the first place.  Reaction has been understandably mixed, and in the age of Twitter, the story has exploded.  Here are some takes:

However, the hot take of the day goes to this “fair and balanced” Fox News anchor, who called McIlroy a “leprechaun” and said that she “can’t stand him”:

But here is the real question: why can’t the internet let this go?

Weird injuries happen all the time in sports, and this case is no different.  Take the injuries mentioned in this excerpt from a legendary 2002 Denver Post piece from Mike Burrows:

Lionel Simmons was a rookie starring for the Sacramento Kings in February 1991 when he developed tendinitis in his right wrist and forearm. The injury was caused by Simmons playing his Nintendo GameBoy, and he missed two games.

“It’s not unusual for Lionel to be focused on something,” Jerry Reynolds, the Kings’ general manager at the time, told reporters. “But to hurt himself like that?”

You mean, like former NBA guard Muggsy Bogues, who once missed the second half of a game because he accidentally inhaled ointment during halftime treatment of a sore muscle and became dizzy?

“One of those fluke things you don’t even dream about,” Bogues said.

GameBoy.  Inhaling ointment.  Luckily for Bogues and Simmons, they played in the age before social media.  Both were good players (Simmons averaged 18 points per game in his rookie season; Bogues played 14 years in the NBA) but neither had to face the ignominy that social media would have brought them.

Sammy Sosa hurt himself in 2004 after a violent sneezing fit brought on back spasms.  The sneezes ended up putting Sosa on the disabled list.  Coincidentally, 2004 would be Sosa’s last All-Star Game appearance.

Were we supposed to tell Sammy Sosa that he couldn’t sneeze? Were we supposed to force a “No GameBoy Rule” on Simmons? Or, in the most famous example of a weird, overzealous sports injury, were we supposed to tell Bill Gramatica not to celebrate his field goals?

The point here is that McIlroy is entitled to do whatever he wants during his free time. I sincerely hope he and his buddies weren’t playing on artificial turf, but he can play soccer if he wants to.  Even if he got hurt in the process, what’s wrong with a little game of footy with your friends?

It would’ve been terrible, but Rory McIlroy could’ve hurt or burned himself barbecuing on our nation’s birthday.  (Don’t laugh: according to Men’s Health, grilling results in 17,000 injurious accidents per year.)  Rory McIlroy could’ve hurt himself walking down a flight of stairs.  And, worst of all, Rory McIlroy could’ve hurt himself by setting off fireworks at his own peril.  It could’ve happened to anyone, anywhere, and it happened to McIlroy in a soccer game on Saturday.

As for the theory that he should be training?  Well, he’s a normal person just like everyone else.  He trains to be successful and he takes breaks to enjoy he life he lives.  There’s nothing wrong with that.  Most people in this country don’t work on weekends; why should he, especially when he isn’t playing in a tournament?

Rory McIlroy is the best golfer in the world.  An ankle injury and the potential for yet another major win from world #2 Jordan Spieth could change that, but, in 99 out of 100 cases, playing a soccer game wouldn’t.  However, Rory happened to rip up his ankle in the process, and he is facing social media scorn for it. That’s a crying shame, especially for the best golfer in the world.

Why can’t we just leave him alone?

Posted on

The Detroit Tigers May Be Finished Without Miguel Cabrera

In every full season of the stellar career of Miguel Cabrera, he has never played less than 148 games.  He has never been on the DL in his first 13 years in the majors.  Both of these are about to change after the events of Friday night, however.

With Cabrera on first base in the fourth inning and the score 1-0 in favor of the Tigers, Cabrera ran on a 3-2 pitch to Victor Martinez.  Cabrera pulled up lame between first and second and could not continue in the game.  It was later revealed that Cabrera suffered a Grade 3 Calf strain and is expected to miss six weeks.

The Tigers, manager Brad Ausmus, and Cabrera himself knew that the injury was bad, according to Craig Calcaterra of NBC Sports’ “Hardball Talk”:

When Cabrera came out of last night’s game with a calf strain you knew it had to be serious. Cabrera has played hurt in the past. He’s played injured in the past. He’s played when he probably shouldn’t have more times than I can count. But short of him literally missing a limb you never expect him to come out of a game.

That’s when Brad Ausmus knew it was bad, well before the MRI results showing a grade-3 calf strain came back.

“When Miggy says he can’t play, it’s serious, because Miggy plays through anything,” Ausmus said this morning. But he won’t be playing though this. Ausmus said he’s still waiting on a second opinion, but he doesn’t expect it to be any better. “I looked at the MRI. You can ask me about it,” Ausmus said. But even Dr. Ausmus is resigned to the fact that the best hitter in baseball will be out six weeks. And as he sat and spoke to the media this morning, he made it clear that the Tigers’ options are limited.

Alex Avila will get the start today, but he has played only three career games at first base. And, Ausmus reminded us, he was just activated from the disabled list himself. He’s worried enough about Avila playing back-to-back games at the position he knows, let alone one that’s mostly unfamiliar.

The Tigers are going to have a very hard time replacing Miggy for one simple reason: he is the best hitter in baseball.  He leads the game in three statistical categories: batting average (.350), on-base percentage (.456) and OPS (1.034).  J.D. Martinez leads the team in home runs, but Cabrera leads the team in the aforementioned categories, as well as hits and RBI.

While the Tigers rank first in baseball in batting average (.277), much of that success is due to Cabrera’s presence.  They also lead the league in hits (761) and on-base percentage (.335), but Cabrera leads the team in all of these categories.

So where does this leave the Tigers in the AL Central race? Answer: much worse than they already are.  With last night’s win, they moved to 40-39, but they are still 6 games back of the division-leading Kansas City Royals.  The Cleveland Indians have come on strong this week as well, and after a 5-game winning streak they are only two games back of Detroit.

In a crowded Wild Card race, the Tigers are only 1.5 games behind the all-important second Wild Card spot.  However, there are seven teams with 1.5 games of the Wild Card, and without Cabrera, the Tigers could be left in the dust.

The Tigers have two more games left with the Blue Jays this weekend.  Their next two series, with three games in Seattle against the Mariners and four in Minnesota to play the Twins, will be crucial heading into the All-Star break.  This is dire straits for the Tigers right about now, and they do not have the easiest schedule heading into the break.

The Tigers absolutely have to hit and score runs, as the pitching staff ranks 25th in ERA (4.16) and 24th in batting average against (.262).  The only great starting pitcher they have had this season is David Price, and he is easily the best starter on the staff. Shane Greene was magnificent early in the season, but was recently sent down to to Triple-A because he was struggling mightily. Justin Verlander made his season debut on June 13 and has limped to a 5.09 ERA in 3 starts.  Alfredo Simon has done a solid job and Jake Ryan has been okay in 4 starts, but the rotation will continue to struggle.

All things considered, the Tigers are very lucky that Cabrera is not going to be out for a longer period of time.  The rehabilitation from the injury might take a long time, longer than Cabrera is supposed to be out for, because injuries to the calves need to be shut down to heal.  However, the Tigers need to get it together without Cabrera, and soon.

Their season will be sabotaged if they don’t.

 

Posted on

Why You Should Care About the Women’s World Cup Final

The above headline is absurd.  I know.

With the hopes of two countries riding on the result of Sunday night’s tilt between the United States and Japan, there are plenty of reasons to be interested in the game.  However, the question of how interested we should be is much broader and more difficult to answer.

I’ll admit something: I wasn’t initially interested in the Women’s World Cup.  I didn’t watch a single game during the group stage or the earlier knockout rounds.  That all changed, however, on Tuesday night.

With the USA playing Germany in the semifinal of the tournament, the action was gripping.  With double zeros registering on the scoreboard in the 59th minute, Germany was awarded a penalty kick.  With Celia Sasic taking the kick, this happened.

The Americans came into the game as underdogs. That miss, in that moment, changed the entire game. The U.S. women gained confidence out of dodging the bullet and the Germans became stagnant on both sides. In the 67th minute, a questionable penalty kick was awarded to the United States, on this foul against Alex Morgan:

Carli Lloyd was chosen to take the penalty kick, and she scored.

As the game progressed, the U.S. got more opportunities, and in the 84th minute, Kelly O’Hara converted for the second goal, which proved to be the dagger for Germany.

There would be another game the next day to decide who would play the United States in Sunday’s final. Japan and England were tied at 1-1 in the 92nd minute; there were 3 extra minutes of stoppage time, so the game was nearing its conclusion.  Japan tried to complete a pass that would’ve ended up right in front of the England goal.  British defender Laura Bassett made the right play in breaking up the pass, but would not get her reward.

And just like that, England’s World Cup run was over.  Bassett has gotten widespread sympathy across the world today (as she should) and the level of shock from everyone involved when the play happened is one that is rarely reached in sports. People seem interested.  This is good.

However, the level of worldly interest is not the same as it was in the men’s game a year ago.

The double standard regarding the treatment of men’s and women’s soccer players was never more evident than in 1999, when the United States played China in the Women’s World Cup Final.  The game went to penalty kicks, and the U.S. was in position to win the game on the last kick, which was to be taken by Brandi Chastain.

You probably know what happened, but for those that don’t, Chastain scored.  After the goal, Chastain ripped her shirt off in celebration, revealing only a sports bra underneath the jersey. It was awesome.  It was wonderful.  And it became the defining moment in the history of women’s sports, for better or worse.

This country was enthralled with the team in 1999, much like it is now.  However, the controversy surrounding Chastain’s actions at the end of the game was widespread and stunning. Some felt that she overreacted in ripping off the shirt, but those same people have no issue with men’s players when they take off theirs.

I’m not saying it isn’t okay to do it, especially when the moment warrants.  In 2012, when Manchester City needed to defeat perennial basement dweller Queens Park Rangers in order to take the Premier League title away from rival Manchester United, Sergio Aguero scored in the final moments of the game. Manchester City would win the title.

Aguero took his shirt off after the play, and the moment, the roar, and the call from legendary soccer voice Martin Tyler (AguerOOOOOOOOOOO) were all absolutely perfect.

However, there is also another element of this debate that needs to be examined: Sepp Blatter.

In early 2004, Blatter made the following comments about the women’s game, as reported then by the British newspaper The Guardian:

Football’s most senior administrator attracted the wrath of the women’s game last night by suggesting female players wear tighter shorts to promote “a more female aesthetic”.

Sepp Blatter, the president of the world governing body Fifa, said women should have skimpier kit to increase the popularity of the game. “Let the women play in more feminine clothes like they do in volleyball,” he said.

“They could, for example, have tighter shorts. Female players are pretty, if you excuse me for saying so, and they already have some different rules to men – such as playing with a lighter ball. That decision was taken to create a more female aesthetic, so why not do it in fashion?”

Blatter’s comments outraged leading European female footballers, and have threatened to undermine the sport, which has 30 million registered players worldwide.

That was, and probably still is, Sepp Blatter’s attitude on women’s soccer.  He obviously does not care too terribly much about the women’s game, and doesn’t care whether or not the rest of the viewing public cares either.  He won’t be attending the Final on Sunday, and that shouldn’t come as a surprise, considering the fact that he is under investigation by Swiss and American authorities.  The New York Times reported on this on Tuesday:

“He’s not going to go to the finals in Canada,” Cullen said, according to the Reuters report. “He has informed the organizers of that and cited personal reasons.”

FIFA later confirmed that Blatter and his top deputy, Jérôme Valcke, would not attend because of “their current commitments in Zurich.” Cullen said that the FIFA vice president Issa Hayatou of Cameroon would preside at the trophy ceremony after Sunday’s final in Vancouver, British Columbia, in Blatter’s place.

Blatter has taken a personal interest in the growth of women’s soccer during his tenure as FIFA president, including the expansion of this year’s World Cup to 24 teams. In May, he declared himself a “godfather” of the women’s game.

But with Swiss and American officials looking into other cases involving FIFA and refusing to rule out charges against Blatter, he has been keeping a low profile by speaking mostly to Swiss newspapers and appearing at private, FIFA-controlled events in Zurich. He hired Cullen, a former federal prosecutor, to advise him in those cases.

The Vice President of FIFA, Cameroon’s Issa Hayatou, will preside over the trophy presentation. This is basically like President Obama making Vice President Biden forge his signature on the Affordable Care Act; it’s ridiculous.

Second of all, Blatter is not a “godfather” of the women’s game, either.  If he was, then why is he making the women play on artificial turf, which is historically worse on the knees than natural grass? There may be more to the story, but the issue reeks of gender equality and women being treated in an inferior manner as opposed to men, at least in soccer.

About a month ago, comedian John Oliver, on his HBO show “Last Week Tonight”, took the time to hilariously deconstruct FIFA in light of the investigation regarding allegations of corruption and racketeering from high-ranking officials.  It is 13 minutes long, but good God, is it worth your time.

The segment perfectly illustrates Blatter: the hard-to-like, corrupt, and yet incredibly powerful overseer of soccer. However, Blatter announced that he was resigning on June 2 and the reaction was predictable:

 

FIFA, everyone.  An outright joke.  Now, let’s move back to women’s soccer.

The players in the NWSL (National Women’s Soccer League) are making anywhere between $6,000 to $30,000 a year, while MLS players make a minimum of $50,000 (h/t to Alicia Lorene Johnson at bustle.com for the numbers).  This has led some teams to set up host family programs; an example of a sports league doing this is the Cape Cod Baseball League in Massachusetts, which hosts summer baseball for college players.

One of these teams is the Houston Dash, and two of their players, Morgan Brian and Meghan Klingenberg, are also playing for the USWNT. However, they stay with a host family during the Dash’s season, and this has led to a crazy story about them and their famous hosts, per USA Today’s For The Win:

OTTAWA — Sunday mornings mean pancakes at Jeff Van Gundy’s house.

Jeff cuts fresh fruit, his wife Kim flips the pancakes, and Meghan Klingenberg fixes bacon.

Yes, the same Meghan Klingenberg who has played every minute on the United States national team’s back line this World Cup has “Pancake Sundays” with the Van Gundy family in Houston because she lives with them while playing for the Houston Dash in the National Women’s Soccer League.

When Van Gundy learned of the team’s host-family program last year, he jumped on the opportunity knowing little about soccer. The former NBA coach and current ESPN analyst didn’t realize his family received an “absolute blessing.”

Then this past spring, U.S. midfielder Morgan Brian moved in, too.

“I can’t tell you how fortunate we are,” Van Gundy told For The Win. “You don’t know when you have people, but the example they set and also for me having been in the NBA for a long time, they just have a different perspective because they’ve never had it easy. And it’s interesting to watch them. They’re just really excited about the opportunities and how they go about it is impressive.

“The utter lack of sense of entitlement was actually startling for me. For professional athletes, I always think about it in these terms: the most difficult diva of women’s soccer would be the easiest NBA player ever.”

Yes, that Jeff Van Gundy.  The NBA coach that coached the Knicks from 1996-2001 and the Rockets from 2003-2007.  Two world class athletes are relegated to having to stay with a host family.  Two world class athletes had to be taken in by “The Notorious J.V.G”.

The reason why this is appalling for women’s soccer is that the games are so exciting.  The NWSL is the fourth attempt at an American women’s soccer league in the last 20 years; the other three (W-League, WUSA and WPS) all folded.  If the games at the club level are even half as exciting as they are at the national level, the league has the potential to be really, really good.

Women’s soccer is very similar to men’s soccer.  The game is played the same way, and the drama, excitement, and emotion of the games are the same as they are in the men’s game.  There is no reason why American sports fans cannot get behind the U.S. women and cheer them on at 7:00 Sunday night.

So yes, you should care about the Women’s World Cup Final. Unlike in the men’s game, this is probably the only chance you will get to see stars like Abby Wambach, Lloyd, Morgan, Hope Solo, and others. The people are different from last year to this one, but the cause is the same: to win a World Cup.

In spite of FIFA, Sunday’s game should be a great exhibition of soccer, the way it is supposed to be played.  However, and most importantly, both countries will be behind their teams to win the game.  Of course, I’m rooting for the U.S., as most, if not all, Americans probably are.  And this is why you should care about the game: the hopes of a country are riding on it.

I believe that we will win.

USA!  USA!  USA!

Posted on

The Five Most Important NBA Free Agents This Summer

July 1, tomorrow, marks the beginning of free agency in the NBA.  Free agency is typically the signing period that provides the most intrigue during the league year, and it also provides teams the chance to improve on last year’s showing and build a title contender. This year is no different, as there are plenty of key free agents that could be changing teams. This list will be the five most important free agents this year, not necessarily the best ones.  So let’s get started, with the five most important NBA free agents this summer.

5. Jimmy Butler

SG/SF

Current team: Chicago Bulls

If you don’t think Butler is important to the Bulls’ future, take from Jordan Campbell of the Fansided blog Da Windy City:

Last season for the Bulls, player 1 averaged 17.7 points per game while shooting 40.5% from the field. Player 1 shot 28% percent from three-point range while also averaging 3.2 rebounds per game and 4.9 assists per game. In the playoffs, player 1 averaged 20.3 points per game while shooting 39% from the field to go along with shooting 34.8 percent from three-point range with 4.8 rebounds per game and 6.5 assists per game.

Player 2, last season for the Bulls, averaged 20 points per game while shooting 46.2% from the field. Player 2 shot 37.8% from three-point range last season while averaging 5.8 rebounds per game and 3.3 assists per game. In the playoffs, player 2 averaged 22.9 points per game while shooting 44.1% from the field to go along with shooting 38.9% from three-point range with 5.6 rebounds per game and 3.2 assists per game.

From last season alone, the stats suggest that player 2 should be “The Guy” going forward for the Bulls’ organization. Player 1 was Derrick Rose while player 2 was Jimmy Butler.

Butler, then, it could be argued, was the most important player on the Bulls’ roster last season. Derrick Rose, at just 26, played only 51 games last season in his return from myriad knee injuries. And even then, D-Rose suffered another tear to his medial meniscus in February.  If Rose cannot stay healthy consistently, the Bulls will have to turn to Butler to pick up the load offensively.  Butler already takes care of much of the perimeter defense on that end, but his shooting and slashing ability with that defense is what gives him the most value to the Bulls, and those are the reasons why the Bulls need him.

4. Marc Gasol

C

Current team: Memphis Grizzlies

Gasol has been a target of many teams’ interest, namely the Knicks and Lakers.  However, according to ESPN’s Marc Stein, Gasol is not interested in leaving Memphis:

Gasol is a player that brings rim protection on defense and versatility on both ends of the floor.  It would make sense why he would stay in Memphis: he has a good team, a great situation, and the chance to get more money, as the Grizzlies are allowed to offer him more money and tenure than any other team can.  He is worthy of a max deal, and I would not be surprised if the Grizzlies give it to him.  It doesn’t look like he’s going anywhere, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t important.

3. Kevin Love

PF/C

Current team: Cleveland Cavaliers

Much has been documented about the relationship between Love and LeBron James, both on Twitter, in the press, and in the locker room.  James tweeted this, seemingly randomly, in February:

However, LeBron later admitted that the tweet was aimed straight at Love.  Love’s role in the Cavs’ offense has also diminished, as his per game figures in points, field goal attempts, and free throw attempts were the lowest they’ve been since his rookie year.  Even though the Cavaliers played just as well, and at times better, without Love in last year’s Playoffs, it looks like they and, most importantly, LeBron, want him back next year:

Love is an incredibly important asset for the Cavaliers and their future.  James needs the support offensively as he gets later and later in his career. He isn’t going to be able to score 35-40 points per game in the Finals every year; that’s why he needs Love and Kyrie Irving.

2. LaMarcus Aldridge

PF/C

Current team: Portland Trail Blazers

LaMarcus Aldridge is done as a Portland Trail Blazer and has teams lining up for his services, according to ESPN.com’s Ramona Shelburne:

According to one source, the chance of Aldridge staying with the Portland Trail Blazers is “very unlikely.”

Knicks star Carmelo Anthony has already called Aldridge, sources told ESPN The Magazine’s Chris Broussard.

The Knicks will emphasize that in the Eastern Conference, the road to becoming an All-Star and a playoff team is much less clogged than in the West.

ESPN.com reported in May that the Spurs and Mavericks strongly believe they’ll have a great shot to lure Aldridge back to his home state of Texas. But sources said last week that Aldridge is actually thinking more and more about a free-agent jump to the Lakers.

The Lakers, sources added, firmly believe they will now be in the Aldridge hunt. And there is a rising sentiment, sources said, that the Lakers have edged past the Mavericks on Aldridge’s wish list even though he was a high school star in Dallas.

The Spurs, sources say, continue to be Aldridge’s most likely destination if he goes through with the idea of leaving the Blazers to start anew. The contingent for San Antonio’s pitch to Aldridge is expected to include Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Gregg Popovich, according to multiple media reports.

The Knicks are not getting LaMarcus Aldridge.  Their pitch of going to the Eastern Conference to win makes sense, but they take it too far when they insinuate that he is more likely to become an All-Star in the East.  Take a guess who started at power forward in this year’s All-Star Game, on the West team.

It was LaMarcus Aldridge.

With the Knicks out of the picture, LMA is very likely to stay in the Western Conference.  The Mavericks are an unlikely destination, as they already have an All-Star power forward in Dirk Nowitzki, and while Dirk is nearing the end of his career, putting the two together may not make the most sense.

The Lakers are an obvious contender because they have holes to fill and are looking square in the face at a future without Kobe Bryant.  With D’Angelo Russell drafted, Aldridge can come in and, post-Kobe, play a role similar to the one he had in Portland; being set up by a (potential) star point guard.  Would he want that, though?

The Spurs are the clear front-runner to land Aldridge, and even though they will have to part ways with Danny Green or Tiago Splitter to get him, the decision is a no-brainer.  Tim Duncan is very likely to come back for at least one more season, and the Spurs could use a replacement for him if/when he retires. Aldridge can give Timmy room to work in the post and can space the floor with his jump shooting.  The combination of big men makes perfect sense, and the Spurs should do everything in their power to get him, even if Gregg Popovich has an early bedtime.

1. LeBron James

SF/PF

Current team: Cleveland Cavaliers

Duh.  This one is self-explanatory.  All reports seem to state that James is coming back to the Cavs, even though he may want to be sure that the organization is doing its part to improve the roster. He was carrying an entire team on his shoulders during the NBA Finals; he won’t want to go through that again.  He is the best player in the world, and the Cavs will take no chances in re-signing him.

Posted on

What’s Wrong with the Seattle Mariners?

Back in early April, when this blog was two days old, I did an MLB preview for this upcoming season.  You can read it here, but to save you the time, I picked the Mariners to win the World Series.  However, through almost three months of the season, it is looking less and less like the M’s will even reach the playoffs, as they are 34-41 and 8 games back of the first-place Astros.  So how did a team with so much talent and promise become one struggling to stay out of the division basement?

Let’s start with star 2B Robinson Cano.  In Robby’s first season in the Pacific Northwest, he hit .314 and had a .382 on-base percentage.  As a result of the Mariners having little support around him, he was intentionally walked 20 times, the fourth highest mark in baseball.  This year, however, has been a far different story.

2015’s version of Robby Cano is hitting .244 with a .281 on-base. And baseball analysts are concerned, according to an ESPN.com story by Jerry Crasnick:

Naturally, when the Yankees visited Seattle this week, the New York writers asked Cano if he regretted leaving the Bronx for the Pacific Northwest through free agency in 2013. Cano insisted he is happy in Seattle, but a lot of baseball people wonder if that’s true. Cano’s $240 million contract runs through 2023, so the Mariners better hope this is just a brief, forgettable blip in an otherwise distinguished career.

One MLB analyst still has faith Cano can get on a roll and hit .300 with lots of doubles, but he wonders if Cano’s power outage isn’t a sign of things to come. “He looks like he might be turning into Jose Vidro,” the analyst said.

Vidro played 12 seasons in the majors, 10 with the Expos/Nationals franchise.  In the years of 1999-2004, Vidro averaged 16.5 home runs per season and hit at or near .300 in each of those seasons.  However, in the last four years of his career from 2005-2008, Vidro averaged 6.8 home runs per year, and even though his batting average numbers stayed near the same in every year but ’08, he was never the same player.

The Mariners’ prized offseason acquisition was DH slugger Nelson Cruz.  He has been excellent, hitting 19 home runs and hitting over .300 in the process. He is not the problem with the lineup.  There are many other issues with it, though, that don’t involve Cruz at all.

The team planned on having 2011 rookie sensation Dustin Ackley play left field on a near everyday basis.  Let’s just say that hasn’t worked out.  Ackley is having what is by far the worst year of his career, hitting .199 and getting on base not even 26% of the time.  Ackley was recently put back at his original position (second base) to cover for an injured Cano. An excerpt out of this piece from Fansided site Emerald City Swagger explains Ackley’s trade value:

If the Mariners want to get anything for Ackley, then it’s in their best interest to be able to market him as a second baseman as well as an outfielder. If Cano needs another couple nights off, then maybe that’s all the better. Too bad this team has a million DHs or they could even get Ackley some non-emergency infield reps.

Ackley has recently been deposed from his left field perch because of his struggles at the dish.  His defense has been just fine, as he has not made any errors in the outfield this season.  Ackley even has a negative WAR this season, which, according to Baseball-Reference, means that he can be replaced. And he has been replaced.  Seth Smith, who is hitting better and is about the same caliber of defender as Ackley, has taken over left field recently and done just fine, as he hits .262 when he plays that position.

Mark Trumbo was acquired on June 3 to help the thoroughly struggling offense, but he has not helped the cause, either.  In 19 games in Seattle, he has hit .160 with an on-base percentage of .194.  He and Cruz occasionally switch between DH and Right Field, depending on who needs a day off from playing defense.  The Mariners need Trumbo to start producing, as the rest of the lineup has not done so and probably won’t.

The fact is obvious; the Mariners aren’t scoring. They rank tied for 28th in baseball in runs scored (253) and last in batting average (.232).  Short of making more moves to add bats, this probably won’t change.  The team recently fired hitting coach Howard Johnson and replaced him with franchise legend Edgar Martinez.  However, some covering the team do not think Martinez can turn the offense around. Among them are KPLU in Seattle’s Art Thiel:

“Everybody loves Edgar,” Thiel said. “That’s, really, I guess, all the motivation behind it.

“Edgar Martinez has never been a hitting coach or any kind of coach. So we don’t know whether he can convey the wisdom that he accumulated in a reasonable fashion.

“I am certain that Edgar is going to be respected by guys like Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz and, really, the young guys who all know the legend. But is he effective at communicating?

“So often, superstar players – and I would consider Edgar one of the greatest hitters in baseball history – can’t convey what they know. They understand it so instinctively that sometimes it’s hard to offer that up and get people to respond to it,” Thiel said.

I agree with the logic presented here.  Martinez was a great hitter in his time, but can he get the secrets to his success across to his hitters?  And how soon can he turn the lineup around, if he can at all?

The Mariners’ starting rotation has not been too much of a problem.  It hasn’t been great, either, but it isn’t the issue.  Felix Hernandez has ten wins and leads the starting rotation in ERA, at 3.24.  James Paxton has been good too, with a 3.70 ERA in just 10 starts.  The main issue with the starting rotation has been the absence of Hisashi Iwakuma, who is very possibly the team’s second best pitcher.  Iwakuma is close to return, but upon his return, it looks as if Seattle will have to send down one of their promising young pitchers in Roenis Elias or Mike Montgomery.

In the end, the Mariners still have a chance to win the division.  This is what the AL West standings looked like on this date last year, June 28th, 2014:

  1. Oakland Athletics 50-30
  2. Los Angeles Angels 45-34
  3. Seattle Mariners 43-38
  4. Texas Rangers 37-43
  5. Houston Astros 35-47

And this is what they looked like at the end of the season:

  1. Los Angeles Angels 98-64
  2. Oakland Athletics 88-74
  3. Seattle Mariners 87-75
  4. Houston Astros 70-92
  5. Texas Rangers 67-95

Oddly enough, the Mariners were 7.5 games back of first place at this time last year.  They are 8 games back now.  The point is that there is still time for them to make a run and win the division, especially if the Astros begin to taper off.  However, they have issues, ones that may not be able to be fixed this season.

There is a lot wrong with the Seattle Mariners.