We Need To Talk About the Milwaukee Brewers

David Banks/USA Today

Coming into this season, the Chicago Cubs were heavily favored to win the NL Central while the Milwaukee Brewers were expected to finish third in the division (at best). I’ll give you three guesses who’s in first place at the All-Star Break.

The Milwaukee Brewers are currently 50-41 and 5.5 games ahead of both the Cubs and Cardinals for first place in the National League Central. The division is absolutely one of the weaker ones in baseball (the Cincinnati Reds, at 39-49, are within shouting distance of first at 9.5 games back) but the Brewers’ success has put just about all of baseball on notice. While many expected the team to continue its ongoing rebuilding efforts, the organization, led by General Manager and Harvard political science major David Stearns, is competing for a playoff berth. While Milwaukee’s first-half triumphs may not have been in the organization’s plans, the Brewers are in full command of first place with just 71 games left in the season. Their dominion over their division is getting more and more serious with each passing day. Even though many have tried to punt on having this conversation, we must force ourselves to face this inexorable fact:

The Milwaukee Brewers are for real.

How they have gotten to this point is most certainly a matter of intrigue. In terms of Wins Above Replacement, the team’s leading hitter is third baseman Travis Shaw. Shaw and two other prospects were sent to Milwaukee from the Red Sox in exchange for reliever Tyler Thornburg after last season. This year, Shaw is batting .299 with a .570 slugging percentage; the latter figure ranks fourteenth in all of baseball, ahead of noted big boppers such as Logan Morrison, Mike Moustakas, and Miguel Sanó. Thornburg, on the other hand, will not pitch for the Red Sox after undergoing season-ending surgery for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome last month. Whoops.

The next most fascinating Brewer story is that of first baseman Eric Thames. In stints with the Mariners and Blue Jays in 2011 and 2012, Thames hit a competent but unspectacular .250 with 21 home runs. After being demoted late in the 2012 season and bouncing around the minors with three different clubs in 2013, Thames was signed by the NC Dinos of South Korea’s KBO League. Thames suddenly turned into South Korea’s answer to Miguel Cabrera, hitting 124 home runs in just three seasons. Additionally, he hit .349 and was the KBO’s Most Valuable Player in 2015.

And, as you probably figured, he’s now producing serious results for the Milwaukee Brewers. Thames leads the team in home runs (23) and runs scored (58). While his batting average has fallen to .248 after a scorching start to the season, he still has a .374 on-base percentage and has walked in 15.5% of his plate appearances.

There have been other contributors to the Brewers’ success, too. Players such as Domingo Santana, Manny Piña, Orlando Arcia, Jesus Aguilar, and even Eric Sogard have all contributed at least one win this season. If the last name I mentioned sounds familiar, it is; Sogard, while playing for the Oakland A’s in 2014, very nearly became the “Face of MLB” after an inside joke that went way, way too far. Sogard eventually lost the contest to Mets third baseman David Wright; just three years later, Wright’s career is likely over after a prolonged and continuing bout with spinal stenosis in his back. The contest was proof positive that you should never, ever decide things on Twitter. After all, the site’s most popular tweet comes from a man named Carter Wilkinson. The subject matter? Wilkinson was asking Wendy’s for a year’s supply of chicken nuggets. So there you go.

Anyway, where the Brewers’ story becomes truly impressive is with their pitching staff. Both Chase Anderson and Jimmy Nelson have turned in outstanding first halves, with Anderson pitching to a sub-3.00 ERA. While he has not pitched since leaving his June 28 start against the Reds with an oblique injury, Anderson is expected to return after the All-Star break. Nelson, though, has been the true ace of the starting rotation, having tossed 109 innings in 18 starts and pitching to a 3.30 ERA. Nelson is becoming the Brewers’ ace, as he’s been the team’s best (and most consistent) starter to this point in the season. In fact, Nelson’s WAR ranks in the top ten among all starting pitchers in baseball. Nelson is easily having the best year of his career, and it’s fair to wonder if he’ll be able to keep it up. But his sudden dominance is part of the Brewers’ early-season success.

The other prominent hurler for the Brew Crew is closer Corey Knebel. Knebel is also having the best season of his career and has become one of the best closers in baseball in 2017. Knebel has been so good, in fact, that his K/9 (strikeouts per nine innings) rate is third among all relief pitchers, behind only the Red Sox’ Craig Kimbrel and the Yankees’ Dellin Betances. It’s entirely possible that Knebel falls off in the second half of the season, but he too has been vital to Milwaukee’s ascendancy to the top of the NL Central.

Of course, this story would be incomplete without addressing the Chicago Cubs and, more broadly, the collective mediocrity of the rest of the NL Central. While Chicago likely still has the most talent of any team in the division (FanGraphs still projects them to win the NL Central), the Brewers have separated from the pack as a result of their World Series hangover. And even as the Cubs’ season has slowly morphed into the title defense from hell, no one in the division, aside from Milwaukee, has taken advantage of their struggles.

The Milwaukee Brewers are no joke. They’ve been in first place outright since June 7 and while many have panicked about the state of the Cubs, the Brewers have started to pull away in a somewhat stunning development. They’ve gotten excellent pitching and timely hitting from unlikely sources and their run differential says that they should have performed exactly as well as they did in the first half of the season.

And whether they have gotten their most important pieces from the minor leagues, the Red Sox, or South Korea, the Milwaukee Brewers will try to finish what they started and lock up the National League Central in the second half of the season.

Why Aces Aren’t Worth the Assets: A History Lesson and an Explanation

As you’ve heard, the trading market for pitchers, especially of the starting variety, is going to be very active at this year’s trading deadline.  The most frequently mentioned names (among others) have been Cole Hamels, Johnny Cueto, David Price, and Jeff Samardzija.  Contending teams such as the Blue Jays, Yankees, and Astros, all of which are in need of starting pitching, will certainly take long, hard looks at all of the pitchers listed above.  However, there are a multitude of starting pitchers who, even though they aren’t aces, could really help teams, especially in October.

To be clear, I believe that the problem with trading in baseball is that teams look at certain players as must-have commodities.  Look at what the Oakland A’s surrendered to acquire Jon Lester on deadline day last season.  They gave the Red Sox Yoenis Cespedes and a draft pick in the 2015 Draft’s Competitive Balance Round B.  The Red Sox then capitulated that pick to the Dodgers when they signed Hanley Ramirez this past season.  The A’s got Lester and Jonny Gomes, a power-hitting left fielder with a career .242 batting average.  While Lester performed admirably in the last two months of the season, he went to the Cubs in the winter.  Gomes fled for Atlanta.  Both are out of Oakland after a fleeting two months with the organization.

While Cespedes was dealt by the Red Sox to the Tigers in December, the trade freed up the Bo-Sox enough to get Ramirez.  The Red Sox are the team that got the better of the deal, even if neither team kept any of their assets.

My point is, front offices shouldn’t make deals because they think they absolutely have to get somebody.  This feeling of necessity burned the A’s because they didn’t need pitching; they needed offense.  So the way they tried to fix the problem was to deal Cespedes, their best offensive player.  They didn’t need the pitching because in addition to already having solid starting pitching in the form of Sonny Gray, Scott Kazmir, and Jesse Chavez, they had traded for former Cubs Jason Hammel and Jeff Samardzija on July 5.

About that trade: the A’s gave up much more in that deal than in the Lester trade.  The main piece the Cubs acquired in that trade was second baseman Addison Russell, who, even though he is hitting only .231 in his first season in the majors, is an amazing defensive infielder.  He is also a starter on a Cubs team that is currently in the second Wild Card spot in the National League.  Russell just so happens to be 21 years old with a lot of room to improve.

Oakland also gave up Dan Straily in that trade.  Straily, a starting pitcher, was sent to AAA by the Cubs.  In January, he was traded to the Astros for Dexter Fowler, who is now the Cubbies’ starting center fielder.  Billy McKinney, a AA outfielder, was also in the deal.  Now, take a guess: where is Samardzija now?  On the South Side of Chicago, pitching for the White Sox.  And Hammel?  Back with the Cubs, and having the best year of his career in the process.

Another outcome of the carnage resulting from the deals: someone had to be sent down to AAA.  That someone was Tommy Milone, and he was traded to the Twins for Sam Fuld on July 31.  Fuld is still with the A’s, but has hit .210 and .207 the last two seasons, respectively. Milone is also having the best season of his career, helping the Twins into position to potentially make the playoffs for the first time since 2010.

Did I mention that Oakland was 54-33, the best record in baseball, when they traded for Samardzija and Hammel?  And that on July 31, they were 66-41 which, at that time, was… the best record in baseball? Finally, did I forget to bring up the fact that, after July 31, the Oakland Athletics went 22-33, finishing the season 88-74 and locked up in the Wild Card game in Kansas City against the Royals?

In that game, Oakland was up 7-3 going to the bottom of the eighth, and, in a cruel twist of irony, Lester ran out of gas, a la Pedro Martinez in Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS.  The lead was down to 7-6 with one innings to play.  In the bottom of the ninth, closer Sean Doolittle gave up the one-run lead on a Nori Aoki sacrifice fly.  The game went to 12 innings, and, with the A’s up (again) 8-7, Dan Otero was brought on to close it out.

In more irony, with one out and no one on base, Eric Hosmer hit a line drive that got past Gomes.  A single became a triple, and Hosmer scored the tying run on a Christian Colon single.  Otero would be replaced by Abad, and after getting Alex Gordon to pop out, was relieved by Hammel.  Colon stole second, and, with the winning run 180 feet away, Salvador Perez hit a ground ball down the third base line that got past Josh Donaldson and stayed fair.  The A’s were gone.

So, to recap: they traded their future shortstop (Russell) for two pitchers (Samardzija and Hammel, neither of whom are on the team anymore), dealt their best hitter (Cespedes) for a pitcher and utility outfielder (Lester and Gomes), and dealt the odd-man-out starter who is turning out to be a real weapon for a postseason-contending team (Milone) for a mendoza-line hitting defensive outfielder (Fuld).  This is the cautionary tale, and certain teams in the history of baseball have had the deadline down pat (See: late 90s Yankees).  But this is what happens when front office executives sharpen their focus on one, two, or even three players; they move heaven and earth to get those guys and once they do, the acquired players don’t stay with the team.  And, to boot, the A’s helped lay the groundwork for the very successful 2015 Cubs’ season.

So that was our history lesson.  Now, let’s bring it back to this season.

Yesterday, Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs wrote a very interesting article about teams that traded for aces.  It prompted me to write this one, and you can read all of it here, but this is the most interesting excerpt from it:

Through this method, I found 22 trades that were made by 21 teams. If that’s a little confusing, it’s because last year’s Oakland Athletics added front-line starters in two separate deals — adding Jeff Samardzija and then Jon Lester. I don’t want to bias by double-counting. Of the 21 teams that added good starters, 17 advanced beyond the end of the regular season. Two were eliminated in single-game eliminations. Nine were eliminated in the division series. Four were eliminated in the championship series. Two lost the World Series. Which means that none of the teams actually won the World Series.

It’s not that World Series-winning teams haven’t added starting pitchers. Last year’s Giants swung a midseason trade for Jake Peavy. But Peavy wound up with a below-average FIP and an average ERA. When championship teams have added starters, they’ve been of the second- and third-tier varieties. The teams adding the big guys have made some noise, but of late they haven’t hoisted a trophy.

When you’re selling a front-line starter, you’re selling the idea that said starter could carry a team through October. Look at what Madison Bumgarner just did. It’s an appealing thought, and it’s founded in truth. But you can look at last season for counter-evidence. Neither Samardzija nor Lester could save the A’s, which lost a one-game playoff in which Lester got the ball. After the Tigers added David Price, they went on to get swept in the first round. Go back further: The Angels missed the playoffs entirely despite picking up Zack Greinke. Two years in a row, Cliff Lee joined a series-bound team and lost. Maybe the ultimate addition was Randy Johnson to the Houston Astros, in 1998. Houston lost the NLDS, 3-1.

Okay, so if trading for aces is historically a move that doesn’t work, why do teams always fall into this trap?  Again, it goes back to teams thinking that they have to get a certain player; they don’t.  They just delude themselves into thinking that they do.

This season, there will be at least one team that overpays for Hamels, Cueto, or Price.  Every village has its idiot, and baseball is no different.  However, some of the other available pitchers on the market could really help teams, maybe even more than the so-called “aces”.

Some of these less heralded pitchers are Mat Latos, Dan Haren, Yovani Gallardo, and Tyson Ross, just to name a few.  Let’s start with Latos.

Even though he is 4-6 with a 4.48 ERA this season, some of the other numbers tell a different story with Mat Latos.  His FIP (fielding-independent pitching) is 3.32, which is more than a point lower than his ERA.  He’s pitched for the Marlins for the first half of this season, and that surely has not helped.  The defense played behind him could not have helped his ERA, either.  However, according to at least one insider, he may not be worth the trouble:

So even though Latos may be a headache in the clubhouse, he is definitely worth it on the field.  A change of scenery may be something that helps his pitching, as the Marlins have been a losing team all season.  Going to a winner may change the game for him, and if history is any indication, he can get it done.  In back to back years (2012 and 2013), he hurled over 200 innings for the Reds, and in both of those years, they made the playoffs.  If he goes to a contender, he could muster a similar performance.

The next, somewhat underrated pitcher who will probably be moved this late July is Dan Haren.  He’s on his fifth team in as many years, and he’s most likely about to be on his sixth.  While he has never been an ace, he’s a pitcher that can give a team a chance to win every time he steps on the mound.  While his FIP (4.31) is noticeably higher than his ERA (3.46) this season, he can be a stabilizing force for a starting rotation in need of consistency, like the Astros or Blue Jays.

Tyson Ross of the Padres is another pitcher on a losing team that can help a winner get over the edge.  This report came across from ESPN’s Buster Olney yesterday:

Even if Ross doesn’t go to a winning team, he can still provide great value at the front of a starting rotation.  While it may not appear that he’s having as good a year as he did in his breakout campaign last year, the numbers beg to differ.  While his BB/9 is up along with is ERA, his FIP, K/9, and HR/9 are all improved from last year.  His BABIP against him is .332, up 31 points from last season.  While it may not look like he is having as good of a season as he did in 2014, he is. Luck just hasn’t been on his side, at all.

Finally, the non-ace pitcher who may be most tantalizing for teams is the Rangers’ Yovani Gallardo.  He is having the best season of his career, and while luck has been on his side (his FIP is 78 points higher than his ERA), he will still be very valuable for teams looking for a front-line starter.  Unlike the other, underrated pitchers, a team overpaying for Gallardo based on this year alone is likely.  However, that doesn’t mean he won’t do really well in a new environment.

All told, the only ace on the trade market worth mortgaging the future for is the Tigers’ David Price.  Cueto may be worth it, but his FIP has been higher than his ERA in every year of his MLB career.  Hamels’ career numbers are remarkably similar to those of Latos, and yet he will be valued more by desperate teams looking for an ace. Samrdzija’s numbers are not very good this season (ERA over 4), but he’ll be coveted on the market, even though I’d value him about the same as I would value Haren.

Even though the “aces” aren’t much better than their less heralded counterparts, desperate teams will give up their future prospects and other talent just for one pitcher.  However, none of the teams that do this will win the World Series.  Why?

Because aces just aren’t worth the assets.

MLB Season Preview

NL East

Team W L
Washington Nationals 96 66
Miami Marlins 86 76
New York Mets 84 78
Atlanta Braves 78 84
Philadelphia Phillies 64 98

 

Discussion: The Nats win this division easily due to the ridiculous starting rotation and their above-average line-up.  The Marlins take a leap forward as Jose Fernandez returns from his Tommy John surgery to put forth a solid second-half of the season.  The Mets improve over last year with the solid addition of Michael Cuddyer and improvements to the bullpen as well.  The Braves stay around the same as they finished last year because their key gains match their key losses.  They are very similar to how they were last year.  And the Phillies are just going to be really, really bad and that’s that.  Their rotation, lineup, and bullpen are all terrible.  They will be the worst team in baseball.

NL Central

Team W L
Pittsburgh Pirates 89 73
St. Louis Cardinals 87 75
Chicago Cubs 81 81
Milwaukee Brewers 81 81
Cincinnati Reds 69 93

 

Discussion: The Pirates bring back many of the same players from last year, but the addition of Francisco Cervelli behind the plate will help its pitching staff take the next step.  Pedro Alvarez rebounds from a poor season in 2014, leading the Bucs to their first division title since 1992.  The Cardinals will be there; they always are.  They haven’t gotten much better, however, and the division around them has.  They will fall slightly.  The Cubs had a very solid offseason, and look for prospects Jorge Soler and Kris Bryant (when he comes up) to have good campaigns.  The Brewers stay where they were last season, and Jonathan Lucroy has an MVP-caliber season.  Finally, the Reds have a poor season, suffering as the division pushes forward around them.

NL West

Team W L
San Diego Padres 88 74
Los Angeles Dodgers 84 78
San Francisco Giants 81 81
Colorado Rockies 72 90
Arizona Diamondbacks 69 93

 

Discussion:  The Padres take a leap forward this season, as the additions of Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Wil Myers, James Shields and others catapult the Pods to the division pennant.  The Dodgers take a step back with the losses of Hanley Ramirez and Dan Haren.  The Giants, in an odd-numbered year, take a step back as they lose Pablo Sandoval and, for the beginning of the season, Hunter Pence.  The Rockies and Diamondbacks, two rebuilding teams, round out the division basement, each losing at least 90 games.

AL East

Team W L
Baltimore Orioles 85 77
New York Yankees 82 80
Toronto Blue Jays 81 81
Boston Red Sox 80 82
Tampa Bay Rays 69 93

 

Discussion: This division only features one sure-fire basement team (the Rays).  The Red Sox improve off of last year, but weaknesses at pitcher and catcher will serve to hold them back.  The Blue Jays, besides the addition of Russell Martin, are not as strong as last year with the losses of Juan Francisco and Melky Cabrera.  The Yankees; who knows?  They could be anywhere from 60 to 90 wins, but on paper, they are an around .500 team.  And the Orioles, this year’s weakest division winner, will have just enough to win the division, along with the comeback of Manny Machado.

AL Central

Team W L
Cleveland Indians 89 73
Detroit Tigers 87 75
Kansas City Royals 83 79
Chicago White Sox 81 81
Minnesota Twins 69 93

 

Discussion: The Twins carry the bottom of this division, as they are still awaiting the development of Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton, who are starting the season at class AA.  The White Sox improve off of last year’s showing with additions of Melky Cabrera, David Robertson and Jeff Samardzija help improve the team, but they are still weak at second base, right field and in the bullpen.  The Royals lose pieces from last year’s team, namely DH Billy Butler and ace James Shields; they take a small step back.  Finally, the Indians take a leap of faith to the top of the division, needing all-around solid seasons from Michael Brantley and Michael Bourn to do so.  The Tigers finish second, and have to be concerned over the plight of Justin Verlander.

AL West

Team W L
Seattle Mariners 95 67
Oakland A’s 86 76
Los Angeles Angels 84 78
Houston Astros 83 79
Texas Rangers 67 95

 

Discussion: The Mariners lead this division, as the addition of Nelson Cruz helps alleviate the pressure of Robinson Cano to produce.  Also, Felix Hernandez wins his second Cy Young leading one of baseball’s best pitching staffs.  The A’s are a mystery, but they will most likely be good enough for second in this division.  The Angels are also a mystery, but I have them behind the A’s because it remains to be seen if Josh Hamilton can figure himself out and if Albert Pujols can have another good season.  The Astros will be a surprise; they take a leap forward this year with the additions of Jed Lowrie and Evan Gattis.  Finally, the Rangers will easily finish last in the division after the season-ending injury to Yu Darvish.

Playoffs

NL

(1)Nationals

(2)Pirates

(3)Padres

Wild Card Game: Cardinals over Marlins

AL

(1)Mariners

(2)Indians

(3)Orioles

Wild Card Game: Tigers over A’s

NL:

(2)Pirates vs (3)Padres: Pirates in 5

(1)Nationals vs (4)Cardinals: Nationals in 4

(1)Nationals) vs (2)Pirates: Pirates in 7

Explanation: The Nationals easily dispose of the Cardinals in the first round, and the Pirates and Padres play a tightly contested series that goes the distance.  In a  7-game series, the pitching of the Pirates catches up to that of the Nats.  Also, their outfield (Marte, Polanco, and McCutchen) will be this year’s version of the Royals’ outfield last year.  The Pirates win the NL.

AL:

(1)Mariners vs (4)Tigers: Mariners in 4

(2)Indians vs (3)Orioles: Orioles in 5

(1)Mariners vs (3)Orioles: Mariners in 6

Explanation: The Mariners’ pitching coupled with enough offense gets them past the experienced Tigers.  The experience of the Orioles, along with the return of Manny Machado, leads them past the Indians.  Then, the Mariners defeat the Orioles in a solid championship series.  They take the pennant.

World Series: (2)Pirates vs (1)Mariners: This series will be tight.  However, the Mariners’ pitching, especially in a three or four-man rotation, allows few runs.  Also, Nelson Cruz and Robinson Cano have sold series, and the talent on each side in too much for the Bucs.  Mariners win in 6.

Most importantly, this season will be fun.  Your guess is as good as mine as to who wins.