Tag: Clemson Tigers

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Why Eight Wouldn’t Be Great for the College Football Playoff

Vernon Bryant/The Dallas Morning News

The College Football Playoff celebrated its fifth year in 2018. There have been ten semifinal games in its history. Only two have been decided by one possession.

Continuing college football’s annual tradition of being exactly what we thought it would be, Alabama and Clemson waltzed to easy victories in their semifinal matchups with Oklahoma and Notre Dame, respectively. The Tigers won their game 30-3 while the Tide beat Oklahoma 45-34 in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score indicated. Now, Clemson and Alabama will meet in the College Football Playoff for the fourth consecutive season, and if you want a sense of their total domination over the sport, consider this: 10 of the last 11 College Football Playoff games have ended with either Clemson or Alabama on top.

And with this domination, the cries for an eight-team playoff to decide a champion are building, and they aren’t coming from the outside. In fact, some of the most powerful people inside college football seem to be willing to advance the discussion for playoff expansion as soon as 2020. The logistics are still being worked out, but it seems like this is going to happen, so let’s start off by looking at what that eight-team playoff would potentially look like.

In this scenario, it’s likely that there would be six automatic bids to the Playoff. Five of them would go to each Power 5 conference champion (including the Pac-12) and the sixth would go to the highest-ranked Group of Five team (UCF). The other two bids would be at-large berths, so you would almost certainly have a bracket that looks something like this:

  1. Alabama (SEC champion) vs 8. Washington (Pac-12 champion)
  2. Clemson (ACC champion) vs 7. UCF (highest-ranked Group of 5 team)
  3. Notre Dame (at-large) vs. 6. Ohio State (Big 10 Champion)
  4. Oklahoma (Big 12 Champion) vs. 5. Georgia (at-large)

The main critique of the four-team version of the Playoff is that it isn’t competitive enough. That is perfectly fair, and making the Playoff more competitive at this stage is a very difficult—if not impossible—task. And there are several fundamental problems with expanding it to eight teams that would suggest that doing so would not accomplish what we all want, which is competitive balance.

For one thing, Washington is not one of the eight best teams in the country, but they would get in as a result of winning the Pac-12. I think it’s pretty obvious that they would get annihilated by Alabama. Clemson would likely do the same to UCF, which isn’t an entirely fair judgment of the defending national champions because of the absence of star quarterback McKenzie Milton. In my view, Georgia would likely take down Oklahoma, which would set up a fascinating rematch of last year’s national title game. The only toss-up quarterfinal game, then, would probably be the Notre Dame-OSU tilt, but my gut says the Irish would come out on top.

But beyond looking at what it would look like this year, the big-picture question when it comes to an expanded Playoff is this:

Does it make the college football season more exciting while still rewarding the best teams in the sport? I would answer no on both counts.

First of all, I truly believe that even with an eight-team championship, you would still have the same national title game we have in real life. But that’s beside the point. The real problem with doubling the size of the Playoff would be that it would greatly diminish the importance of the regular season. College football may have the most important regular season because it is almost certain that if you want to contend for a national championship, you can only afford to lose one game. Even a 12-1 record does not guarantee a berth in the playoff (just ask this year’s Ohio State team).

Moreover, adding four more teams to the Playoff wouldn’t remove disputes over who should get the last spot in it. Currently, the argument is over who should be the fourth team in, but there will be seasons where two of the at-large spots will be disputed. It may be slightly less convoluted, but arguments will still exist in years where the two at-large teams are not nearly as obvious as they were this season.

There will also be years where the best eight teams don’t get in. One example of this would have been 2012, where an eight-team Playoff would have been, um, catastrophically bad:

That’s not what you want to see.

My final qualm with going to an eight-team Playoff would be that it would prioritize automatic bids and “getting in” over being the best team that season. While the current Playoff does that to an extent, going to eight teams would not ensure that the nation’s best team is hoisting the trophy at the end of the season. In fact, it would turn the odds in the opposite direction. While everyone loves the NCAA Tournament (68 teams, chaotic first weekend, etc.), it is a fundamentally insane way to crown the “best team in the sport”, and more often than not, it fails in that regard. We would be heading in the wrong direction with the addition of more teams.

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The Week 11 College Football Top Ten

Photo Credit: Charlie Neibergall/Associated Press
Photo Credit: Charlie Neibergall/Associated Press

Ah, yes, there goes college football rearing its ugly head again….

That’s sarcasm, of course: this sport is as good as they come when the late stages of the season come rolling in. That was on full display again on Saturday, as the second, third, and fourth-ranked teams all went down on one day for the first time in 31 years. That means plenty of changes in this week’s rankings, and that also means new teams in the top four. So let’s get on with it; here’s my list of the top ten teams in college football after week 11.

10. USC Trojans (7-3)

Last week: NR

USC had arguably the most impressive showing of any team this past weekend, as they traveled to Seattle and easily dispatched the Washington Huskies. Redshirt Freshman quarterback Sam Darnold anchored the offense with two touchdown passes and nearly 300 yards passing; additionally, the team’s defense held the explosive Husky offense to just 13 points.  The Trojans struggled to start the season, going 1-3 and raising questions about new head coach Clay Helton’s job security. But USC is one of the ten best teams in the nation right now and would be a lot to handle for basically any team in the country. Hypothetically, they could even beat Alabama–no, never mind.

9. Oklahoma Sooners (8-2)

Last week: NR

Speaking of teams that have rebounded from slow beginnings, Oklahoma has won its last seven games after a 1-2 start. All of those seven games have come in-conference, as well, so the Sooners control their own destiny to win the Big 12. This week, they’ll be going on the road to play a very solid West Virginia team in a game that almost has Playoff implications. While the Sooners likely don’t have a realistic path to the Playoff at this point, things could get a little interesting if they win out. After all, we saw what happened last week.

8. Western Michigan Broncos (10-0)

Last week: 10

Western Michigan continues to climb up in my rankings. After starting at ten last week, the Broncos are climbing up two spots to eight this week. While they were tied in the fourth quarter last week with a 3-6 Kent State team, they were able to take care of business and score the final sixteen points en route to the victory. This shift is more of a figure of the events of last Saturday, as the Broncos continue to take care of business while other teams falter. In my rankings, P.J. Fleck’s squad would be a lock for the Group of Five berth in a New Year’s Six bowl game. They don’t have a path to the Playoff, but they do deserve their just due.

7. Penn State Nittany Lions (8-2)

Last week: 8

Quietly, Penn State staged one of the gutsiest performances of week 11. Down ten points in the third quarter, the Nittany Lions scored 24 of the final 27 points to beat Indiana, 45-31. Granted, this team is not perfect, as Saturday’s game showed, but Penn State found a way to win, keeping their somewhat dim Playoff hopes alive. James Franklin’s team can still win the Big Ten East with an Ohio State win over Michigan to close the season, a scenario that seems all the more likely now (more on that later). If Penn State were to win the Big Ten title game, they would still have a chance to get in the Playoff. Once again, anything can happen.

6. Wisconsin Badgers (8-2)

Last week: 7

There isn’t a whole lot of news to report on the Wisconsin Badgers, and with last weekend’s happenings, that isn’t a bad thing as far as they are concerned. With a routine 48-3 thumping of the Illinois Fighting Illini on Saturday, the Badgers stand to benefit at least some from the carnage at the top of the standings. Sure, they lack some of the bells and whistles of the better teams in the country (including, you know, competent quarterback play) but Wisconsin is poised to find itself in a New Year’s Six Bowl and potentially beyond with a little help. That is far more than anyone could have predicted at the beginning of this season.

5. Clemson Tigers (9-1)

Last week: 3

Mini-rant time: Clemson has been dicey and, frankly, unimpressive at times this season. They’ve had close calls at home against the likes of NC State and Troy and have had six games decided by seven points or fewer. Yes, they do boast wins over Louisville, Florida State, and Auburn, but the team has taken on a 2015 Ohio State vibe, and I mean that in all honesty. So after they lost to Pittsburgh at home this week, you would think that they would drop in the rankings. And yet, many pundits seem to think that they will only drop one spot (from two to three) in the real rankings. I know, I’m only dropping them two spots, but you don’t just lose at home to a 5-4 team and escape in the top four of my rankings. Sorry. I can’t put Clemson in the top four this week.

4. Michigan Wolverines (9-1)

Last week: 2

Michigan suffered a similar fate on Saturday; the only difference between them and Clemson is that their loss to a 5-4 team came on the road at Iowa. The bigger issue for the Wolverines, though, is the health of starting quarterback Wilton Speight, who is said to have suffered a broken collarbone in his non-throwing shoulder on Saturday. Coach Jim Harbaugh has since refuted that report, but it remains to be seen whether Speight can come back to the field this season. Michigan still controls its own destiny to make the Playoff, but they may have just suffered a crippling blow to those aspirations.

3. Louisville Cardinals (9-1)

Last week: 6

Perhaps the biggest beneficiary of Saturday’s carnage was the Louisville Cardinals, who did not look overly impressive themselves in a 44-12 win against Wake Forest last week. The Cardinals were losing that game 12-10 in the third quarter before their offense pulled it together in the final quarter and a half. Louisville should be in the Playoff if they win but that isn’t necessarily guaranteed, as they could still be jumped by Clemson if the Tigers win out; Clemson also has a tiebreaker over Louisville to go to the ACC title game. However, the Cardinals are in good shape with two weeks left in the regular season.

2. Ohio State Buckeyes (9-1)

Last week: 5

In reality, not all that much changed for Ohio State this weekend. They took care of business in a big way against Maryland and while they have moved from five to two in my rankings, they still need to win out to make the Playoff. It’s hard to see them getting in with two losses, but it’s fairly clear the the Buckeyes are the second-best team in the country right now. It’s probably as high as they can get this season, but the Buckeyes are in a great position to secure a Playoff berth over the next two weeks.

1. Alabama Crimson Tide (10-0)

Last week: 1

At this rate, college football is slowly becoming a story of Alabama and everyone else. What I’m trying to say is that the Tide are just that much better than the field. There is no reason that would change after Bama’s 51-3 win over Mississippi State on Saturday. Alabama is number one until they lose. And right now, I don’t think I can see them losing anytime soon.

Departures: Washington, Auburn

New Additions: Oklahoma, USC

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College Football’s Top Ten After Week Ten

Photo Credit: Johnny Andrews/The Seattle Times

While tomorrow is Election Day in America, the College Football Playoff committee will also have some critical decisions to make.  While this week’s rankings will not ultimately decide the teams that make the Playoff, what the Committee does this week will go a long way toward deciphering what exactly they value in a team (hint, hint: strength of schedule).

And while the Committee certainly isn’t listening to me on this one, I’ll chip in my two cents anyway.  We’ll try to make this a weekly staple until the reveal of the four teams in the College Football Playoff.  Let’s start at number ten.

10. Western Michigan Broncos (9-0)

Let’s confront this fact head-on: Western Michigan is an odd choice at number ten.  The Broncos have played a weak schedule and haven’t looked overwhelming in some of their games.  However, I’m willing to cut the Broncos some slack because they’ve beaten all of the teams they have played.  Let’s face it: the committee values strength of schedule above basically everything else in its evaluations.  But shouldn’t there also be a value on winning?  Winning is what the Broncos have done, which is why I’m happy to put them at number ten on November 7th.  And no, that’s not a misprint.p

9. Auburn Tigers (7-2)

Let’s face it: there are teams in this realm with better wins than Auburn’s.  However, it’s also important to look at their two losses, which came to Clemson and Texas A&M, both of whom were ranked in the top four of last week’s rankings.  Granted, they didn’t look overly impressive in last week’s 23-16 win over Vanderbilt, but a fairly easy next two games (at Georgia, Alabama A&M) should have them in position to play spoiler against Alabama in the Iron Bowl on November 26th.  A rushing attack centered around Kamryn Pettway (who is questionable for this week’s game) and one of the best defenses in the country have Auburn sliding into the top ten this week.

8. Penn State Nittany Lions (7-2)

Penn State is a team that I have come around on over the course of this season.  After getting pummeled 49-10 by Michigan on September 24, the team has won its last five games, including a 24-21 home victory over Ohio State.  An offense spearheaded by Trace McSorley has been one of the most consistent in the country and has come on as of late.  This is a different team than the one that got destroyed in Ann Arbor in week four.  Message to the rest of college football: beware of Penn State.

7. Wisconsin Badgers (7-2)

Wisconsin is another team that has evolved since the beginning of the season; the Badgers, though, have fared far better and more consistently in their schedule than Penn State has.  The Badgers have had quarterback issues all year long, waffling between Bart Houston and Alex Hornibrook.  The Badger offense, though, revolves around running back Corey Clement, who rushed for over 100 yards in last week’s win over Northwestern.  Wisconsin’s two losses have come against Michigan and Ohio State and their remaining schedule (Illinois, at Purdue, Minnesota) is rather easy.  The Badgers should run the table and likely will end up in the Orange Bowl.

6. Louisville Cardinals (8-1)

The Louisville Cardinals are a good team that has been carried all year long by human cheat code quarterback Lamar Jackson.  Jackson continued his heroics last week, throwing for seven touchdowns in a blowout victory against Boston College.  The Cards don’t have any more difficult tests on the schedule, as Houston has self-imploded (you’re welcome) and Wake Forest and Kentucky will both be coming to Louisville.  The Cardinals probably need help to make the Playoff, but they’re having an amazing season nonetheless.  That is all thanks to Lamar Jackson.

5. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-1)

Ohio State had the most impressive performance of week ten, defeating Nebraska 62-3 at home.  J.T. Barrett is a legitimate Heisman contender who leads one of the most talented offenses in the country.  If Ohio State wins out, which would include a victory against Michigan, they would likely make the Playoff.  Even at five, the Buckeyes still control their own destiny.  Two road tests lie between them and a date with the Wolverines in Columbus to close out the regular season.

4. Washington Huskies (9-0)

While the Huskies may be jumped by the Buckeyes in the real rankings tomorrow, I am putting Washington over Ohio State because of the value I place on winning.  While Washington has not played an overly difficult schedule, they have won all of their games, and have won all but two of those games in convincing fashion.  Jake Browning has spearheaded the second-best scoring offense in the country to a 9-0 record this year, and the Huskies’ remaining games are against USC, Arizona State, and Washington State.  If Washington wins out, they’re in my playoff.  Let’s be honest: all they’ve done is win.  There’s something to be said for that.

3. Clemson Tigers (9-0)

Clemson has been tested nearly all season long and was a missed field goal away from losing to NC State on October 15.  However, they’ve come out of these trials unscathed, with close wins against Auburn, Troy, Louisville, NC State, and Florida State.  Granted, the health of quarterback DeShaun Watson will be key for the Tigers going forward.  But Dabo Swinney’s team will do things the way they always have: by bringing their own guts and pulling out close games when they have to.

2. Michigan Wolverines (9-0)

I rate Michigan above Clemson because I subjectively believe that they are just a tick better than the Tigers.  Honestly, the choice between two and three is kind of splitting hairs, but the Wolverines have blasted through their schedule with only two close calls (a week nine win at Michigan State and a 14-7 slugfest against Wisconsin on October 1st).  Tack onto that an impressive 45-28 win over Colorado in week three and you get the picture of a team with a complete resume.  That’s what the Wolverines have, and that’s why I put them just above Clemson.

1. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-0)

Duh.  Alabama is in a class of its own in these rankings, as they can win any game in any fashion.  I truly believe that they are significantly better than everyone else in college football right now, and the Tide have the talent on both sides of the ball to back that up.  Barring a trip-up in the Iron Bowl or in the SEC title game, the Tide will be rolling into the College Football Playoff as the nation’s best team.  And it isn’t that close.

Let me know what I got right and wrong in the comments section!