Tag: Zack Greinke

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What Would a Pitcher Home Run Derby Actually Look Like?

Photo Credit: Jose Luis Villegas/The Sacramento Bee

Recently, there has been much discussion in and around baseball about whether or not Giants pitcher Madison Bumgarner should participate in this year’s Home Run Derby.   It seems like a fun idea, but San Francisco manager Bruce Bochy, along with many others, is concerned about the injury potential that comes with swinging the bat as hard as possible once every 15 seconds (as we saw in last year’s Derby).

That being said, it looks like Bumgarner’s participation in this year’s event is at least slightly possible; he told reporters that he would “absolutely” want to take part if he was invited to participate.

I’ll say this right now: it’ll never happen.  There are too many people in the Giants organization telling him not to and the risk of injury is too present.  Both he and the Giants have too much to lose by doing this.  But the debate about Bumgarner got me to thinking: if we were to have a Home Run Derby with pitchers only, who would participate?

I thought it an interesting question; after all, there’s a reason why #PitchersWhoRake is a thing.  So I set out to find eight pitchers to fill my hypothetical, pitcher-only Derby.

So let’s start with the obvious…

Madison Bumgarner

Duh.  This guy is the best-hitting pitcher in baseball; in fact, he leads all active pitchers in home runs… and he’s only in his sixth full season.  His home run rate is comparable to Mike Trout and Bryce Harper (no, seriously) and he has the bona fide power needed to win a Home Run Derby.

For instance, listen to this account of a recent batting practice exhibition in St. Louis, as told to ESPN’s Buster Olney and relayed by Sports Illustrated’s Jay Jaffe:

Prior to Sunday night’s ESPN-televised game between the Giants and Cardinals, Bumgarner put on a show in batting practice at Busch Stadium, hitting more than a dozen homers, including two into the third deck and one into the uppermost fourth deck. A groundskeeper told ESPN’s Buster Olney that Mariners slugger Nelson Cruz is the only other player he can recall reaching such rarefied territory.

That would be perfect for the Derby.  And Petco Park has become more hitter-neutral since its fences were pulled in three years ago; this would give MadBum at least a fighting chance to get his share of dingers.

And that’s exactly what all of us would want to see.

Noah Syndergaard

Here, our Derby gets a solid injection of THOOOOOOORRRRRRRR…..

In any event, Syndergaard hits like a poor man’s Bumgarner; while his strikeout rate is awfully high, he usually finds a way to hit the ball hard when he makes contact.  And when he’s not throwing 100 MPH heat behind people’s backs or at their faces, he’s hitting impressive home runs to the deepest parts of the park (three, to be exact).  In fact, all three of his home runs have approached 400 feet.

While he might struggle trying to hit home runs to center over a wall 400 feet from home plate, a more friendly right field gives him a legitimate chance to compete.

So yeah, Syndergaard is a must for this event.

Jake Arrieta

Here’s another pitcher who seems to want in on the Home Run Derby fun.  This is what Arrieta had to say after Saturday’s win over the Braves, his tenth of the season:

If he’s in it, I need to be in it [….] That’s for sure. He can hit the ball a long way, but I can too.

Arrieta has impressive power to all fields; in a game last season against the Pirates, he hit a home run and a warning track fly at Wrigley.  His power has been majestic at times, and he would surely make the Derby more interesting.

He’d also give it some name recognition; after all, he’s only one of the two best pitchers in baseball.

Zack Greinke

A low-risk, potentially high-reward choice here.  Greinke has six career home runs, including two in the span of ten days last season with the Dodgers.

There’s not a whole lot more to say about this; Greinke has been one of the best hitting pitchers in baseball for several years, so he should be a safe pick for the Derby.

Adam Wainwright

And yet another pitcher seems to want a piece of the Home Run Derby pie.  This is what Wainwright tweeted in the wake of the news about Bumgarner and Wainwright:

Wainwright would be an excellent choice, with seven career home runs to his name.  And if he seems to want to do it, why should he be denied?

Yovani Gallardo

This is another safe choice.  But it brings another layer to this debate: Gallardo has not pitched in the National League since leaving the Brewers after the 2014 season.  He boasted tremendous power during this time, hitting 12 home runs and four in the 2010 season alone.  But how will he fare doing something that he hasn’t really done in almost two years?

He should be able to do pretty well; let’s just hope he isn’t too rusty.

Jose Fernandez

I don’t know about you, but I like my home runs with a little sauce.  This is what Fernandez did (and what ensued) when he hit his first career home run in 2013:

Fernandez in a Home Run Derby would be awesome.  Imagine a more high-energy, emotional version of Yoenis Cespedes from three years ago.  If that’s the Fernandez we get, we’d be in for a very fun night.

And that’s what this is about, not playing the game “the right way”.

Finally, for a bonus…

Bartolo Colon

Please, just please let this happen.  Please?

This would undoubtedly be the best part of a pitcher Derby.  Not much would be expected from Big Sexy, and any home run he hits would bring Petco Park to the ground.  Add that to the fact that he hit his first career home run at Petco and you get a no-brainer pick who would become the sentimental favorite just by stepping onto the field.

And we know that even if he doesn’t make contact, he’s still going to try really hard.  Sometimes even laughably hard.

But he’d make this Derby even more fun than it already is.

This is the Home Run Derby we will never have, but it’s the one we need. But according to ESPN’s Buster Olney, maybe there is a chance of it happening after all:

So you’re saying there’s a chance?  Count me in.

Let’s make this work and make baseball fun again in the process.

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Making Sense of Zack Greinke

 

Zack Greinke made his first start coming out of the All-Star break on Sunday against the Nationals.  Coming into his most recent start, he had not allowed a run in 35 2/3 innings, drawing comparisons to the scoreless streaks of Dodger greats Don Drysdale and Orel Hershiser. However, Greinke would be facing the toughest test of his run, as the Nationals rank the highest in baseball in runs scored out of the teams he has faced during the streak.  So how would Greinke respond?

By tossing eight scoreless innings, allowing just three hits, and not letting a runner get into scoring position all day.

With the results of Sunday’s start, Greinke’s scoreless spell stretched to 43 2/3 innings.  And while he has to pitch another 15 1/3 scoreless innings to tie the record set by Hershiser in 1988, he has already made history, via ESPN Stats and Info:

So, thinking this way, I did some comparisons between Greinke and Hershiser.  I didn’t compare Greinke to Don Drysdale for one simple reason: Drysdale pitched his scoreless streak in 1968 on the 15-foot high pitcher’s mound, while Greinke has pitched his on one that is only 10 feet off the ground.

This is (I think) the most interesting tidbit I found about Hershiser’s 1988: he gave up 73 walks.  This means that in 34 starts, Hershiser allowed over two walks per game.  During the streak, Hershiser walked eleven batters over the course of his 59 innings, as opposed to his walking 73 over the course of a whopping 267 innings that season. Here is a table I made of Hershiser’s stats during the streak (Note: the August 30 game vs the Expos is the last four innings of his start.  He allowed two runs in the first five innings of that game.)

Date/Opponent IP H BB K
August 30, 1988 vs Expos 4 1 2 4
September 5, 1988 vs Braves 9 4 1 8
September 10, 1988 vs Reds 9 7 3 8
September 14, 1988 vs Braves 9 6 2 8
September 19, 1988 vs Astros 9 4 0 5
September 23, 1988 vs Giants 9 5 2 2
September 28, 1988 vs Padres 10 4 1 3
TOTAL 59 31 11 38

Now, here is a look at Greinke’s streak on a start-by-start basis:

Date/Opponent IP  H BB K
June 18, 2015 vs Rangers 7 4 0 8
June 23, 2015 vs Cubs 6 3 2 5
June 28, 2015 vs Marlins 7.2 4 1 6
July 4, 2015 vs Mets 7 4 0 4
July 9, 2015 vs Phillies 8 1 0 8
July 20, 2015 vs Nationals 8 3 1 11
TOTAL 43.2 19 4 42

On the surface, it looks like Greinke’s numbers are more impressive than Orel’s.  However, there are a couple of things to pay attention to when comparing the two.

The first thing I noticed when comparing the two is the distance that both pitchers went in their respective games during their streaks. While Greinke has not thrown any complete games over his last six scoreless starts, Hershiser went nine (or more) in every start during his streak.  Sure, the game has changed quite a lot since 1988, but Hershiser never needed the help of his bullpen to finish games; he completed them himself.

Here’s another thing: Greinke’s numbers may appear more impressive than Hershiser’s, but this is not necessarily the case.  The “Zack Attack” is on pace to allow less hits and walks than the Bulldog did, and Greinke has already passed Hershiser’s strikeout total. However, Hershiser is still more impressive in this regard because he had more baserunners, and subsequently jams, to navigate his way out of.  While Orel’s streak reaching 59 innings may have been partially a figure of luck, Greinke allowing so few baserunners over the last 43 2/3 innings has to be because of luck, too.

Greinke has had lots and lots of luck during his run.  Jeff Sullivan at FanGraphs wrote about this yesterday:

Sorry, but, duh. It’s always there. Zack Greinke’s true talent isn’t a 0.00 ERA. It is a very low ERA, but it is not the lowest possible ERA. Consider that Greinke has allowed just 19 hits, facing 152 batters. Not a single fly ball has left the yard. When there have been runners in scoring position, hits have been further suppressed. Luck doesn’t always look like a line drive being snared at full extension — sometimes luck is just a batter taking a worse swing than usual at a hittable pitch. Luck is always present, in all forms. Greinke’s been the recipient of more good than bad.

One particular manifestation: the opponents. Greinke just shut down the Nationals, who’ve been hurt pretty bad by injuries. The start before that, he faced the Phillies, and the start before that, he faced the Mets. Going back still, there were the Marlins, without Giancarlo Stanton. And there were the Cubs, and it all started against the Rangers, but against the Rangers in a National League ballpark, so they didn’t play Prince Fielder. They didn’t have Adrian Beltre or Josh Hamilton. It’s been a kind slate. This isn’t to take anything away from the achievement — it’s just, the stars have been aligned, so to speak.

The stars have been aligned.  While Greinke’s run has been incredible and we haven’t seen anything like it in a long time, it couldn’t have happened without luck playing a big role.  Between the schedule, the stadiums he’s pitched in, and the lineups he’s faced, a scoreless streak was there for the taking, if Greinke was up to it.  And he has been.

Everything being said, I’m not trying to take away from what Greinke has done.  He’s been absolutely dominant over his last six starts, and there’s no question who the best pitcher in baseball is this season. But until he reaches 59 scoreless innings, there will always be one streak eclipsing Greinke’s in dominance.  That streak belongs to Orel Hershiser.

Take that, Zack.