Five NBA All-Star Break Observations

Photo Credit: Kyle Terada/USA Today
Photo Credit: Kyle Terada/USA Today

The NBA All-Star Break is here, and needless to say, the first half of the season provided us with an array of storylines. The Warriors have gotten off to the best first-half start of all-time (48-4) and need to win 25 of their last 30 games to break the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls’ record of 72 wins in a regular season; additionally, Stephen Curry is the surefire MVP of this season. There’s also the Kobe Bryant retirement tour, which will conclude on April 13 with a home game against the Jazz. Kobe played in his last All-Star Game this Sunday, against two players (Andre Drummond and Anthony Davis) who were four when he played his first in 1998.

However, despite popular opinion, there are other happenings in the NBA besides from Kobe, Curry, and the Warriors. So here are five observations as we head into the second half of the season.

Who, What, Where, When, Kawhi: The Spurs Are Historically Good Too

Photo Credit: Edward A. Ornelas/San Antonio Express-News
Photo Credit: Edward A. Ornelas/San Antonio Express-News

The above headline isn’t actually something I came up with: I heard Mark Jackson say it on an ABC telecast of a Spurs game a couple of years back. Anyway, what has made the Spurs historically good this season has been their defense. And yes, the Spurs to date have been a historically great team in NBA history.

This is why: they’ve allowed 91.8 points per game this season. There have been 100 teams, including this year’s Spurs, that have surrendered fewer points on average over a full season (and amazingly, twelve are Gregg Popovich-coached San Antonio teams). Out of those 100 squads, the Spurs have the best winning percentage of all of them (.849). At this rate, they’re on pace for 70 wins, two short of the current record.

If that won’t convince you of San Antonio’s historical greatness, this will: no team in NBA history has ever scored 105 points per game and allowed less than 92. The Spurs would be the first, and they’re on that pace as we speak (scoring 105.0, allowing 91.8). If that isn’t impressive, I don’t know what is, especially in a season like this.

In addition to this, the team has added LaMarcus Aldridge since its last title run. Kawhi Leonard is having the best season of his young career. And there will always be the core of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili. This Spurs team is one of the most historically dominant ever, particularly defensively. This and other reasons is why they can absolutely beat the Warriors come playoff time.

Live on TNT, They’re Flexing: The 6IX Will Be Crazy This May

Photo Credit: Brad Penner/USA Today Sports
Photo Credit: Brad Penner/USA Today Sports

Don’t look now, but the Toronto Raptors are within three games of the Cavaliers for first place in the East.

When I wrote my NBA preview just before the season, I thought the Raptors could be the second-best team in the East. The reason why was because of Kyle Lowry, who I thought could help the team take the proverbial leap in the Eastern Conference after his offseason weight loss. Sure enough, the point guard is having the best season of his career, helping propel the Raptors to second place in the Eastern Conference and legitimate championship aspirations.

However, the real leap the Raptors have made has come on the defensive side of the ball. After being tied for 18th in points allowed a season ago, general manager Masai Ujiri signed defensive stalwart DeMarre Carroll away from the Hawks. The move hasn’t yet paid dividends for Toronto, as Carroll may miss the rest of the season with a knee injury. So how have the Raptors improved so much on defense?

By playing the game at a very slow pace, that is. Their 93.3 pace is actually faster than last year’s, but their defensive rating has leaped from 25th to 9th. With the improved defense and the slow pace, the Raptors are built perfectly to win in the Eastern Conference playoffs, in which the games are generally lower-scoring and played at a slower tempo. If they reach the Conference Finals, they would most certainly play the Cavaliers, which would be a very difficult matchup. However, they’ll have a better chance of making a run this year because of their defense, their higher seed in the playoffs and the better first-round matchup that results from it.

Also, they likely won’t have to deal with Paul Pierce this time around because he is in the Western Conference. That’s a good thing.

Houston, We Have a Problem: The Rockets Really Are Broken

Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez/USA Today Sports
Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez/USA Today Sports

If you subscribe to the notion that conflict works, you may not want to watch the Houston Rockets anytime soon.

The Rockets are a team in conflict. There is living, breathing proof of this; just ask Jason Terry:

It is horrible. The team, believe it or not, went to the Western Conference Finals a season ago, and while teams improve and fall off from year to year, the Rockets’ descent has been nothing short of stunning.

Their coach realizes it, too. JB Bickerstaff, Houston’s interim coach after the Kevin McHale firing, had this to say about his team and their chemistry:

We’re broken. It’s that simple. We’re a broken team, and we all need to use this break to figure out how we’re going to impact change. If we don’t want to impact change, then we need to be made aware of that, too, and we’ll go in a different direction.

“We can’t continue to go out and play this way. It’s easy to see it’s a fragmented bunch. You can’t win that way.

The Rockets can’t win this way, and they haven’t. At the All-Star break, they’re 27-28, out of the playoffs, and in no position to make a run at a championship. There’s also the minor problem of Dwight Howard.

The team is reportedly trying to ship him and the remaining two years on his contract to another team. Howard’s name has been linked to discussions with the Hawks and Heat, and a deal with the latter would likely involve Miami center Hassan Whiteside. The Rockets look like they’re trying to finish a deal before Thursday’s trade deadline, and whether they can or not may help define the future of the franchise for years to come.

But with or without Howard, this year’s version of the Houston Rockets are just one thing: broken.

Celtics Climbing Up the Topsails of the East

Photo Credit: Michael Dwyer/Associated Press
Photo Credit: Michael Dwyer/Associated Press

Moving on to things that aren’t broken, the Boston Celtics have been one of the NBA’s pleasant surprises this season. Currently, the team is third in the cluster that is the Eastern Conference and in a position to host a playoff series this April. Whether or not they finish there remains to be seen, but even though Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, and Robert Parish aren’t walking through that door, the team has still exceeded expectations without sacrificing their future as of yet.

The reason why is simple: a solid core of young players paired with the coach who, in my opinion, is one of the best in the NBA: Brad Stevens. Under Stevens’ tutelage, the team went from 25 wins in his first season to 40 wins and a playoff appearance a season ago. This season, they’re on pace for 47 wins and the third seed in the East. How did this happen?

Last December, the team traded Rajon Rondo to the Mavericks for Jae Crowder and other assets. Crowder is now the third-leading scorer on the C’s. Then, the team would acquire Kings guard Isaiah Thomas at the trade deadline. With these two players, Avery Bradley, an improved Evan Turner, Kelly Olynyk, and Marcus Smart make up the existing Celtics core. This core could come into play when the team tries to sign a major free agent in the stacked summer of 2016.

But let’s enjoy this season for what it is in Beantown: a renaissance of the Celtics and the emergence of a team that could make some noise come playoff time.

The Cavaliers’ Locker Room Won’t Be Smelling Like Champagne in June

Photo Credit: Nathaniel S. Butler/Getty Images
Photo Credit: Nathaniel S. Butler/Getty Images

Time for a real talk. If and when the Cavaliers make the NBA Finals, can they realistically beat the Thunder, Spurs, or Warriors in a seven-game series?

Honestly, my answer would be no. The team they would have the best shot against would obviously be Oklahoma City, but even they would give the Cavaliers a serious run for their money; they could also give Cleveland another Finals loss. And if the Cavaliers end this season with another one of those, then they’ll have to seriously look in the mirror and assess their chances, as they are currently constituted, of ever winning a championship.

This is why I’m pessimistic about the team’s title hopes: they don’t play fast enough. Remember how I talked about the Raptors playing a really slow pace? Well, the Cavaliers play slower than the Raptors. While the Cavs’ pace is remotely near that of the Spurs, their ball movement is not. Also, the pace of the Thunder and Warriors is way faster than Cleveland’s. Translated: any of these teams could run the Cavaliers out of the building on any given night.

So when Steph Curry talks about the visitors’ locker room still smelling like champagne, he has a point. He also could be foreshadowing what the future holds for the away locker room at Quicken Loans Arena when another Western Conference team gets to celebrate an NBA championship.

Because the one team that definitely won’t be celebrating when all is said and done this season is the Cleveland Cavaliers.

The Last Thing Johnny Football Needs Is Just That: Football

Photo Credit: James Allison/Icon Sportswire
Photo Credit: James Allison/Icon Sportswire

Warning: article will touch on mature subject matter and violent themes that may be disturbing for some readers.

Johnny Manziel’s NFL career is in serious trouble.

This is not due to his on-field play; rather, it’s due to yet another off-field incident, one much more serious than all the others he’s amassed in his short college and NFL career.

News of this most recent incident was reported on by Dallas television station WFAA 8’s Rebecca Lopez.  These are the harrowing details:

The ex-girlfriend of NFL quarterback Johnny Manziel told police that the Heisman Trophy winner told her “shut up or I’ll kill us both” after forcing her into a car, hitting her, and dragging her by the hair.

On Thursday, News 8 learned harrowing details of last week’s alleged assault of Colleen Crowley by Manziel, who is currently on the Cleveland Browns roster, but is not expected to return next season.

This is easily the worst in the long line of Manziel incidents, ranging from fake ID to middle fingers to rehab to the first domestic dispute with his girlfriend and muchmuch more.  It’s obvious he has a lot of talent; he showed this throughout his college career and even in brief periods during the last two seasons in Cleveland.  However, his off-the-field exploits have always been his undoing, and anyone who knew about his problems in college could have foreseen a self-implosion at the professional level.

And the problem is, the people closest to him did.  This is what Johnny’s father, Paul, said in August 2013 in an ESPN article about how his son’s life could fall apart:

“Yeah,” Paul says one evening, driving in his car, “it could come unraveled. And when it does, it’s gonna be bad. Real bad.”

He imagines a late-night call, and the cable news ticker, and the next morning’s headlines.

“It’s one night away from the phone ringing,” he says, “and he’s in jail. And you know what he’s gonna say? ‘It’s better than all the pressure I’ve been under. This is better than that.'”

While one would hope that his statement would be proven untrue, Johnny came very close to fulfilling it last weekend.  And he’s not out of the woods yet: his ex-girlfriend, Colleen Crowley, was granted a restraining order against him today.  Additionally, the Dallas Police Department announced Friday that it was opening a criminal investigation into the domestic violence and assault allegations.

So why have things gone so far off the rails for Manziel recently?

Well, the short answer to that question is that they always have been. Going back to his college days, there was a little bit of a wild side to him; this manifested itself in the way he played on Saturdays.  After missing the first half of Texas A&M’s 2013 home opener against Rice, he returned in the second half and did this:

While the Aggies won the game and eight more that season, the incident was firmly etched in the minds of many in the NFL and college football.  For some strange reason before then, however, he wanted to get out of College Station, sending (then deleting) this tweet from June 16, 2013:

Bulls— like tonight is a reason why I can’t wait to leave College Station… whenever it may be

In reality, though, this was probably one of his bigger mistakes.  Yes, he had gotten in trouble with the law and the NCAA, but football has always been the one constant in his life.  And quite frankly, let’s face it: Texas A&M enabled much of Manziel’s shenanigans since the time he arrived in College Station because they realized his talent.  For crying out loud, Manziel basically built them a new football stadium, made the university and athletic program a boatload of money and got almost nothing in return…. except a free pass on many of his transgressions.

That’s where this whole problem began.  If Texas A&M would have had more of a no-tolerance policy with Manziel, he may have realized the consequence of his actions a long time ago.  They could have suspended him for a full game or more for his NCAA violation in the summer of 2013.  They did not.  They could have suspended him in the wake of the fake ID incident the summer before that.  They did not.  They could have taken the opportunity to change Manziel for the better.  They did not.

Which is why the last thing he needs at the present moment is football.  His entire identity in life has been football; just look at his nickname.  Without the football, he’s just Johnny.  That is to say, he’s nothing.  I’m not saying this from the standpoint of actually knowing him personally, and I can’t pretend like I do.  However, I can say that Manziel needs some kind of wake-up call.  One that doesn’t involve football.

And at this point, it’s really a personal issue for him.  It was strictly a personal issue when he reported to rehab last winter to get himself clean; football was pushed to the backburner, as it should have been then and should be now.  His father says that he has turned down rehab twice in the past week.  He also says that “if they can’t get him help, he won’t live to see his 24th birthday.”  The problem with that comment, though, is that Paul Manziel is kinda sorta part of the problem here.

This is how I’ll put it: everyone has different parenting methods that work.  Parenting doesn’t seem to be a one-size-fits-all type of thing. But why on earth did Paul Manziel out his concerns through the press?  Has he even said these things to his own son’s face?  I understand that he is concerned about his son’s well-being, and he should be.  But if I was Johnny Manziel and my father said that for everyone to hear, I would not be happy.  At all.

Also, why does the elder Manziel talk about “they” when he talks about getting his son help?  Isn’t that responsibility on him and his family?  We’ve already established that the Browns are moving on from him; while they should help Manziel, they really have no professional obligation to do so, like they did last year.  And if none of his friends are going to intervene, then it’s up to Johnny Manziel’s family to help him.  It’s almost like his father doesn’t want to take any initiative in fixing his son’s problems.  While it should be up to Johnny to sober up, someone else in his life needs to help him realize this.  And at this point, it doesn’t look like that person is going to be Paul Manziel.

Obviously, Johnny Manziel needs a lot of help.  He needs to get his life turned around in the worst way.  If he doesn’t, it’s going to be bad. Real bad.

And maybe, just maybe, losing football will be the critical wake-up call he needs to get his life going in the positive direction.  Because his livelihood and well-being are what he needs more than the game or anything else right now.

Why Does the Pro Bowl Still Exist?

Photo Credit: Mark Humphrey/Associated Press
Photo Credit: Mark Humphrey/Associated Press

The Pro Bowl may be the one exhibition game in professional sports that the players have no desire to participate in.

This has probably always been the case, but the players’ attitude toward this year’s game seems even more apathetic than in years past.

In actuality, think about the Pro Bowl as opposed to all other all-star games.  It’s the only one that takes place after the regular season, after sixteen games and seventeen weeks of the most grueling sport on the planet, one that causes most former players to have CTE, the disease that slowly but surely destroys the brain in those who sustain multiple concussions and sub-concussive impacts.  It also makes most players, especially those who made the playoffs, feel worn out and in need of a break from the game.  This was never more evident than in the amount of withdrawals from this year’s Pro Bowl.

This year, 133 players were invited to Hawaii to play in the game.  By my count, only 94 are actually making the trip, and the 133 invites set a new record for the amount of players who were asked to play.  The NFL has taken numerous measures to attempt to make the Pro Bowl more appealing to viewers, but it’s kind of hard to appeal to a viewing audience when you can’t even appeal to your own employees.

Among these measures is having Hall of Famers pick the teams for the game.  Instead of having an AFC vs. NFC format, the league decided to have legends such as Michael Irvin, Cris Carter, Jerry Rice and Deion Sanders pick the teams.  This practice began in 2013, after years of Pro Bowl irrelevance.  Unsurprisingly, the presence of the former players changed approximately nothing in terms of the relevance of the contest.

What exactly is the problem with the game?  All you have to do is watch it for five minutes and you’ll see.  It just isn’t played like a regular game; it isn’t physical in the least and the players who are playing in the game really don’t give it much of an effort.  If you want one sequence to serve as a microcosm for what the game has become, you need to look no further than this play in the 2013 game, when referee Ed Hochuli set the record straight on how the game was being played:

“Yes, there are penalties in the Pro Bowl.”  Truer words have never been spoken.  I hate to say it, but the game has become soft, which is certainly a far cry from when the late great Sean Taylor temporarily ended the life of Bills punter Brian Moorman.

Football is the last sport in the world that can be described as soft, so watching the Pro Bowl is essentially not like watching real football. However, the MLB All-Star Game is not exactly like a real baseball game; the same is true with the NBA All-Star Game.  So why is the Pro Bowl so much more irrelevant than the exhibitions of other sports?

It’s simple; the players aren’t interested.  Eli Manning is starting the game for Team Rice, and while he is one of the best quarterbacks in football (don’t get me started on that one), he isn’t one of the two best available quarterbacks for the game.  The fact that players competing in the Super Bowl cannot play thins the talent pool some, but you can still find two quarterbacks better than Eli Manning.  This is a byproduct of the withdrawals of Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, Carson Palmer and others.

The other reason why the Pro Bowl struggles is because the game just isn’t that fun.  While you can tell that LeBron James, Steph Curry and Kevin Durant don’t care all that much about the NBA All-Star Game, they actually make the game more fun by attempting more entertaining plays, like some of these from last year’s contest:

The NBA players do not take the game seriously, but that is part of what makes it an enjoyable watch.  The other enjoyable part of the NBA and MLB All-Star proceedings has nothing to do with the games themselves; rather, the most enjoyable things about these games have to be the skills contests.  Baseball has the Home Run Derby, which is one of the best events on the sport’s calendar.  It gets all of the great players of the game in one place and creates another night of fun for fans of the sport during the All-Star break.  And, the NBA, of course, has Saturday Night of All-Star weekend all to itself.  The Three-Point Contest, Skills Contest and Slam Dunk Contest have the same effect as the Home Run Derby; they give the players a stage all to themselves to do things we wouldn’t see during games.  All-Star Saturday night is one of the great events in sports, and it’s something that the NFL could have… if the league wanted it.

The NFL could have the players engage in some type of skills contest before the game.  The idea of holding some type of punt, pass, and kick contest with professional players could be a good idea.  Moving the NFL Honors show, which presently occurs the night before the Super Bowl, to the night before the Pro Bowl, would make more players go to the game the next day; however, holding an awards show in Hawaii might be a challenge.

Or, the NFL could do what I think is the best idea of all, which would be to just get rid of the game altogether.  This is what Greg Bedard wrote for Sports Illustrated in a roundtable about improving the game:

Get rid of it. No one cares and it stinks. Look, football isn’t baseball, basketball or hockey, where you can have an all-star break in the middle of the season and the game might loosely resemble the real product. The injury risk is too high. Combine that with the fact that the true stars of the game never actually go, and exactly what are we trying to accomplish here? The lone possible alternative would be some sort of combination of Battle of the Network Stars, MTV’s The Challenge and a skills competition. All-star games are cool for one reason: All the best players are in the same place at the same time. I don’t care if it’s for a dinner party at midfield at Aloha Stadium—find something that can do that for NFL players.

He’s right.  The NFL needs to find a way to get all of its players together in the same place.  Until they do, we as fans will continue to be wholly disinterested in the Pro Bowl.

And we’ll be wondering why it even exists at all.

How Much of the Cavaliers’ Problems Actually Should Fall on David Blatt?

Photo Credit: Mike Lawrie/Getty Images
Photo Credit: Mike Lawrie/Getty Images

Cleveland Cavaliers head coach David Blatt was improbably fired on Friday, despite winning 68% of his games in a year and a half and taking the team to Game 6 of the NBA Finals in his first year on the job. However, General Manager David Griffin made the move on Friday, reportedly not consulting any Cavalier players in the process, and using this reasoning for his decision. These are his words:

I have never seen a locker room not be as connected after wins as they need to be. We’ve only been galvanized when expectations were not high.

This is the General Manager speaking, not any of the players or assistant coaches. And no, despite popular opinion, LeBron James is not the coach or General Manager of the team. So why on this planet would Griffin be making a decision on firing his (very successful) head coach based on things he’s seen in the locker room?

Maybe this is part of the problem, as ESPN’s Brian Windhorst writes. Here, he relays a story from last season about how players really didn’t think all that much of Blatt:

That didn’t stay a secret. James’ and other players’ complaints about Blatt’s style got out quickly. During games, Cavs players complained about the coach to opposing players. Once, while on the road, an injured Cavs player used the home team’s therapy pool and complained about Blatt, with his thoughts literally echoing throughout the home locker room.

First of all, that’s a really low maneuver to resort to; using the home team’s therapy pool just so you could complain about how bad your coach is? Come on, there’s got to be a better way.

But, besides that, the coaching move would seem to make sense. Blatt did not really seem to have the pulse of the locker room, and while it’s easy to look straight to the Cavs’ record and wonder why the organization could make this move, there is more to the decision than wins and losses. Also, the people questioning the change probably did not watch the team play the Warriors and, subsequently, trail by 43 late in the third quarter. Something had to be done, but was this it? If the therapy pool story and the others that Windhorst told in his piece are true, then the right move was made. If the players actually respected Blatt, then maybe the firing is a mistake.

All this being said, we really need to toss locker room dynamics to the side here. This is the problem with the Cavaliers: maybe they just aren’t good enough to win an NBA title. Maybe the issues go far beyond coaching.

Think about it this way: the Cavs are a big fish in a little pond. With all due respect to the Eastern Conference (which has improved mightily from top to bottom this season), the team is easily the best in the East. Realistically, can the Heat, Hawks, or Raptors beat them in a seven-game series if Cleveland is fully healthy? The answer to that question would have to be no.

Remember the analogy about the fish and the pond? Well, the Western Conference is a very big pond, with two enormous fish filling it. The Spurs and Warriors are clearly the two best teams in the NBA right now, and it’s really not close. To make matters worse for Cleveland, they haven’t beaten either team this year; with one more game against San Antonio and having already finished their slate against the Warriors, they are running the serious risk of not getting a win against the two teams they will have to realistically go through to win an NBA championship. That really doesn’t bode well for them if they want to finally bring a title back to the city of Cleveland.

Here is the other problem for the Cavaliers: Kevin Love. If you know what Love accomplished in his early days with the Minnesota Timberwolves and you see what he has been relegated to in Cleveland, you can probably understand why the team may look to move on from him. After the Blatt firing, ESPN’s Cavaliers reporter (yes, really), Dave McMenamin, sent out this cryptic tweet:

So, let’s see who that could be. The player who hasn’t found his way offensively since arriving in Cleveland. The player who was really great on many really bad teams early in his career. The player who is posting the worst numbers of his career since his second season in the NBA. Add everything up, and you get one result: Kevin Love.

Another player that could be out in Cleveland after Blatt’s firing is center Timofey Mozgov. Rumors have circulated around the league that this is a possibility, and my intuition says that a Mozgov deal would be common sense for the team. Think about it: let’s say the Cavaliers play Golden State in the Finals again like they did last year. With Mozgov at center, how can he defend Draymond Green when the Warriors go to their Uh-Oh lineup? This was the Cavaliers’ main problem after Game 3 of the Finals last season when the Warriors started Andre Iguodala and moved Green to center. Cleveland tried to counter by putting Tristan Thompson at center for most of Game 5. It didn’t quite work.

Do I believe going to Tyronn Lue is the right move for the Cavaliers? Yes, I do, because the players respond to and identify with him more than they did with Blatt. The NBA is a players’ league, and while coaching isn’t always the most important thing in the league, the players’ identification with a head coach’s philosophy and personality is. That being said, why did Griffin stay with Blatt last year, with the team at 19-20 in the middle of January? This year, the team was 30-11 at the time of Blatt’s firing and leading the Eastern Conference.

This is not a question about whether or not the Cavs can come out of the East. That question has been answered. However, Cleveland will have serious issues if they are matched up with the Spurs or Warriors in the Finals, and they may get beaten handily by either team.

Which is a fact that neither David Blatt, David Griffin nor Tyronn Lue can do anything about.

And Then There Were Four: Conference Championship Weekend Preview

Photo Credit: Charlotte Observer
Photo Credit: Charlotte Observer

Four teams remain in the NFL playoffs after last week’s Divisional Round saw all four games decided by seven or fewer points.  The New England Patriots, synthetic weed, left behind K-Balls and all,  defeated the Kansas City Chiefs 27-20, en route to their fifth-straight AFC title game.  In the other half of the conference, the Denver Broncos defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers 20-13, but in particularly ugly fashion, as this play shows:

Nonetheless, the Broncos won, setting up Brady-Manning XVII, likely the final meeting between the two Hall of Famers.

On the NFC side, the Arizona Cardinals struggled their way to a 20-13 lead over the Green Bay Packers, but due to horrid clock (mis)management, Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense had one last chance to tie the game and send it into overtime.  What happened next is nothing short of indescribable:

Then, of course, there was the coin that didn’t flip, and the Cardinals got the ball first in overtime. That’s when Larry Fitzgerald got to work, in a big way, catching two passes, one for 75 yards and the winner from five yards out:

In the other NFC game, the Carolina Panthers jumped out to a 31-0 halftime lead over the Seattle Seahawks.  Seattle would come back to bring the game within seven, but would not get any closer.  Was it an entertaining game? Sure, but nothing like the spectacle that was Packers-Cardinals.

In any event, here is a preview of the two conference title games.

AFC Championship: Patriots at Broncos

Photo Credit: Denver Post
Photo Credit: Denver Post

The clear undercard to the NFC Championship Game, this game still features intriguing storylines.  However, the biggest question in this one will be if Peyton Manning and the Broncos offense can keep pace with the high-flying, and now fully healthy, Patriots offense.  If the answer is, by some bizarre revelation, yes, then we are in for an outstanding game.  If this answer is the more likely solution, no, then things could get out of hand, and quickly.

Manning’s health and his steep decline have been well-documented, and the latter was fully on display against the Steelers.  His lack of arm strength and his inability to fit the ball into tight windows has been his, and the Broncos offense’s, downfall all season long, and at this point, the team should seriously consider turning to Brock Osweiler.  It’s a shame, but Denver’s offense is limited by Manning at this point.  The rest of the team is good enough to win a Super Bowl, but the most important position on the field is in flux.

On the other hand, the Patriots offense is far from being in flux.  With the greatest quarterback in the history of football and his full assemblage of weapons fully healthy, the team and the offensive unit are looking more and more dangerous as time goes on.

Also, the most important Patriot offensive player not named Brady or Gronkowski is back, too.  Julian Edelman, who missed seven games due to a foot injury suffered in November, announced his presence in a big way against the Chiefs, racking up 111 total yards and ten catches.  He’s Brady’s favorite target, too: he’s averaged over ten targets per game, more than any other New England receiver (including Gronk).

Here are some stats to show just why Edelman is the second-most important player in the Patriots offense:

  WITH EDELMAN WITHOUT EDELMAN
PASS YARDS PER GAME 323.5 236.3
TOTAL YARDS PER GAME 410.8 317.6
POINTS PER GAME 33 23.1

(Statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference)

It will be the task of the Broncos defense to stop the Patriots.  It’s something they were able to do in the first meeting of the teams in week 12, but in that game, the Patriots were missing Edelman and Danny Amendola; also, Gronkowski left the game in the fourth quarter with what looked to be a serious knee injury.  Luckily, it wasn’t.

And for the Patriots, they’ll have their full cast of offensive characters this Sunday.  Look out.

The Pick: Patriots 31, Broncos 13

NFC Championship: Cardinals at Panthers

Photo Credit: Bob Donnan/USA Today
Photo Credit: Bob Donnan/USA Today

I have been torn on this game since about Monday.  While both teams are as good as any in football, they both showed their flaws last weekend.  For example, the Panthers’ flaw has to be allowing teams back into games, while the Cardinals’ flaw is offensive inconsistency, especially when quarterback Carson Palmer struggles.  However, the one I’d have to be much more concerned with is that of Carolina.

Did you know that the Panthers have almost blown five fourth-quarter leads this season?  Granted, that’s out of fifteen wins, and the team still has the best point differential in the NFL (+192; the Cardinals are second at +176), this is staggering and very concerning, especially when you consider that Carolina nearly blew a 31-point halftime lead to the Seahawks a week ago.  The team has a tendency to start strong and then tail off, but that strategy isn’t going to cut it against Arizona this week.

Statistically, the Cardinals have the best offense in football, but the more impressive and important statistic is that their defense was the fifth-best in football during the regular season.  Just as importantly, their defense is top ten in both rushing and passing yards allowed, which is going to be very important as the team tries to defend dual-threat quarterback and soon-to-be-MVP Cam Newton.

However, the most important thing of all for the Cardinals will be to get running back David Johnson going.  Johnson has started every game at running back for the Cardinals since primary, lucky-to-be-alive running back Chris Johnson suffered a fractured tibia in week 12 against the 49ers.  The team has won every game in which David has accumulated over 100 all-purpose yards.  He hasn’t reached that mark since playing the Packers in week 16, and he was mostly held in check against the Packers in the Divisional Round.  If the Cardinals want to go to the Super Bowl, they’ll need their running back to have a big day.

Another thing to watch with this one is the weather.  While the actual weather for Sunday will be favorable, a storm is hitting the Carolinas Friday and Saturday.  The reason why I’m mentioning this is that the field for Sunday’s game may be glorified mud, which probably means advantage Panthers.

However, despite the weather and Newton, I’m going with the upset and taking the Cardinals.  This game will hopefully be a classic, and the gap between the teams really is not wide.  I’m most concerned about the Panthers’ fourth-quarter habit, but especially if they start slowly and don’t pull out to their usual lead.

This one really could go either way, but the Cardinals will win in a close one.

The Pick: Cardinals 23, Panthers 20

Enjoy the games, and for those on the east coast, stay safe in the upcoming blizzard.

You Like That: NFL Wild Card Round Preview

Well, I hope you like it, anyway.  The NFL Playoffs are finally upon us, and that means two of the best weekends on the sports calendar are upon us as well.  Wild Card Weekend and Divisional Playoff Weekend are coming, and with those come eight NFL playoff games.  Those eight start with four this weekend, each providing unique intrigue and scintillating storylines.

This post will only examine the Wild Card games.  Other playoff game previews will be potentially saved for other entries.  So let’s get right to it.  Here are previews for each Wild Card Game.

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans

The Kansas City Chiefs enter January as the NFL’s hottest team, having won their last nine games after a disappointing 1-5 start. Against what team did the only win in their first six games come?  The Houston Texans, the same team they have to play on Saturday.

Both teams, however, are far different than they were in that September 13 meeting, one that resulted in a 27-20 Chiefs victory. Different in the sense that they both lost their star running backs to season-ending injuries and both started their seasons in sub-par fashion before figuring things out toward a run to the second season.

While the Chiefs started 1-5 and looked done with ten games to play, the Texans started 2-6 and looked buried after a 44-26 loss to the Dolphins (Houston was down 41-0 at halftime).  Now, they’re unbelievably matching up in a playoff game.

The matchup to watch this time around would definitely have to be the Chiefs’ altered running game against the defensive line of the Texans.  Can some combination of Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware make strides against a Texan defense that ranked top 10 in the league in rushing yards allowed?  More importantly, can the Chiefs’ offensive line find a way to handle J.J. Watt and his disruptive ability to get to the quarterback?  And can Watt and the Houston defense make vastly underrated Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith look like a Red Ryder BB Gun?

While the Chiefs are on a ten-game winning streak and the Law of Averages says that this must end eventually, they’re still as hot as any team in the NFL.  The Texans used four quarterbacks over the course of the season, but they have theirs healthy.  However, Brian Hoyer doesn’t make the same impact on the game as Smith.  The Texans need a lot of different things to happen to win this game, too many to put faith in them to win it.

The Pick: Chiefs 24, Texans 14

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

Speaking of quarterback problems, the Bengals have their own quasi-quarterback issue brought about by injury.  Andy Dalton went down with a broken thumb in the team’s December 13 game against- you guessed it- the Steelers.  In his place stepped notoriously arrogant but wildly efficient backup A.J. McCarron, and the team has won two games under his leadership, and a third in Denver went to overtime. McCarron still has yet to throw an interception in any of his starts, and his ability to protect the ball will be huge, especially considering the offensive firepower the Steelers possess.

Pittsburgh, however, comes into January decimated.  Arguably the team’s best player, running back Le’Veon Bell tore his MCL against the Bengals on November 1 (parallels, again).  Backup running back DeAngelo Williams has been effective in his stead but he suffered an ankle injury in last week’s game against the Browns.  He was ruled out for this game, and the Steelers will lean on the combination of Fitzgerald Toussaint and Jordan Todman on Saturday night.  We all know about the greatness of Antonio Brown and Ben Roethlisberger, but the task of stopping the Pittsburgh offense will undoubtedly be easier without Bell or Williams.

Sure, the Bengals are using a backup quarterback.  But the Steelers secondary is… not that good.  Ranking 30th in the league in pass defense, the Cincinnati offense can move the ball against it if they don’t commit turnovers and have a balanced attack.  The Pittsburgh rush defense is much better (5th in the league) but the story here will be the passing game. If McCarron can move the ball (and I think he will), it could spell death for the Steelers.

So while Pittsburgh boasts an amazing, albeit decimated, offense and a solid defense in areas, this will be the upset of Wild Card Weekend.

The Pick: Bengals 26, Steelers 21

This game might be the most interesting one of the weekend.  The Seattle Seahawks are coming off of their usual second-half run to end the regular season, while the Minnesota Vikings just won their first NFC North championship since 2009.  Oh, and its going to be really cold.  Like, zero degree cold.

In any event, task number one, two, three, four, and five for the Minnesota Viking defense will be stopping Russell Wilson.  The Seahawks’ quarterback is coming off the best season of his young career and was playing about as well as any quarterback in the league (even Cam Newton) to end the season.  The Vikings are going to have to contain his running and passing, a tall task for a defense that is middle of the road in both categories.

As for the Vikings’ offense, it’s going to have to run through Adrian Peterson.  Also, a good, mistake-free game from quarterback Teddy Bridgewater wouldn’t hurt, either.  But, they’ll be going against a Seahawks defense that ranked second in passing and first in rushing this year.  Good luck.

Even though there will be no Beast Mode for the Seahawks on Sunday, I still like them to win.

The Pick: Seahawks 20, Vikings 12

Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins

The Green Bay Packers are broken.  After a 6-0 start, the team finished 4-6 and lost out on a division crown last week in a frustrating loss to the Vikings.  Aaron Rodgers hasn’t had a 300-yard game since mid-November.  Since then, the team has had losses at home to the Bears, last week’s game and a road thrashing at the hands of the Cardinals in week 16.  They’re actually pretty good on the road, with an even record at home as on the road.

But they’re going to need to have a great game on Sunday to beat the Washington Redskins, and that team is going in the opposite direction.  Since an excruciating week 13 loss to the Cowboys, Washington has won four games in a row and come into the playoffs at 9-7 and hot.  Kirk Cousins has played exceptionally well since week 7.  That game against Tampa Bay is now known for this:

Since “You like that”, Cousins has thrown for 23 touchdowns and three interceptions.  He’s also made us forget about Robert Griffin III.

If the Packers are going to beat the Redskins on Sunday, they need more from Rodgers against a defense that can be had.  The Skins’ defense ranks 28th in yards this season, while the Packers are 15th.  If the Packers can move the ball consistently through the air, they can and probably will win this one.  If not, take the Redskins.  That’s what I’m doing, and I like that.

The Pick: Redskins 28, Packers 17

As always, enjoy the games and have a great Wild Card Weekend!

College Football Playoff Preview

This year in college football, New Year’s Eve will be so awesome.  And while you may not necessarily be watching the College Football Playoff through confetti (or at all, because of the utterly ridiculous scheduling loophole), the Cotton and Orange Bowls will provide all sorts of intrigue this year as the College Football Playoff bowl games. Of course, the other New Year’s Six bowls (Peach, Fiesta, Rose, Sugar) all provide interesting matchups as well; this post, however, will only focus on the two playoff games.

So for now, we’ll only take a look at Clemson-Oklahoma and Michigan State-Alabama.  It’s playoff time again!  Let’s get right into it.

Orange Bowl

Last year, Clemson and Oklahoma played in the Russell Athletic Bowl, and Oklahoma got absolutely hammered with a capital h.  They’re meeting in a slightly different and more important bowl game this year in Miami, but Oklahoma will still be out for revenge.

The team’s “out for revenge” attitude can be tied directly back to transfer quarterback Baker Mayfield.  He transferred into Oklahoma in 2014 but was unable to play until this season because of the Big 12’s transfer rules against a player transferring from one in-conference school to another.  His departure from Texas Tech can best be described as acrimonious, and he’ll be more than happy to tell you about it.

In any event, the key matchup in this game will be Mayfield and the Sooner offense against that of the Clemson Tigers.  The duel between the Oklahoma quarterback and fellow Heisman Trophy finalist Deshaun Watson will be the main attraction to this semifinal.  Of course, there is more to it than this.

Another key will be each team’s surprisingly good defense.  The Tigers and Sooners are ranked 8th and 31st is yards per game allowed, respectively, in college football, and both allow around 20 points per game.  The defenses are an under-appreciated part of the Orange Bowl, and it will be extremely important for each defensive unit to play well, but particularly against the no-huddle: the defense that is on the field less will likely have the upper hand.  It’s worth noting that Oklahoma easily has the best defensive player on the field in the game in linebacker Eric Striker.

But this is really why I’m taking Oklahoma: weapons.  Talent. Versatility.  Oklahoma’s offense can kill you in many different ways, but the most devastating of all may be through running back Samaje Perine.  If Perine gets loose early in the game, you can expect a very long day for the Tiger defense.  His running will also set up Mayfield, star wide receiver Sterling Shepard and the rest of the Oklahoma passing game.

That being said, it’s going to be an excellent game.  Clemson is getting absolutely no respect from Las Vegas, the public, or really anyone covering the game.  It’s going to be as spirited a big game as we have seen in college football for quite some time, but I think Oklahoma has a slight edge.

The Pick: Oklahoma 38, Clemson 31

Cotton Bowl

This game is really a matchup of two very similar teams.  They both play basically the same offense; often under center, never hurrying up.  But what they do with their offenses is very different: while Michigan State rightfully puts their faith in senior quarterback Connor Cook, Alabama will rightfully give the ball to Heisman Trophy winning running back Derrick Henry.  And they’ll give the ball to him some more.  And some more.  And some more.

conservative estimate of Henry’s touches would likely be set at 40, and he’ll probably reach that by running the ball alone.  In Alabama’s last two games of the season, Henry racked up 46 and 44 carries in wins over Auburn and Florida.  If Alabama is to win this game, they have to give the ball to #2 and hope that he has another monster day; this is entirely possible, but the task will be tougher against a stout run defense that only allowed 113.1 yards per game on the ground this season (7th in major college football).

Another thing Alabama will need to do is to put faith in quarterback Jake Coker to make enough plays to win them game.  His sound decision making and sudden, new-found mobility has helped Alabama get to this point, and for the first time in his up and down, good and bad college career, the quarterback will get a chance to be the signal caller on a national championship team.  To have that distinction, though, he’ll have to have a solid, mistake-free game against a really good defense.

As for that defense?  It’s really well-suited for a game like this.  While it ranks a mediocre 76th in FBS in passing yards allowed per game, Alabama will have a difficult time running it on them, as the stats above show.  The main battle in this game is going to be Henry and the offensive line of the Crimson Tide against Michigan State’s defensive line, led by future NFL Draft first-round pick Shilique Calhoun.  Whichever front gets a push will win the battle, and possibly win the game as well.

Of course, Michigan State’s offense is key as well.  They will also have to be able to run the ball against Alabama’s solid defense, one that allows the least rushing yards per game of any team in America (74). Cook might have to do it on his right arm alone, and that may be a risky proposition: the Tide are also a top-20 pass defending team. Making headway will be an immense challenge for the Spartan offense, one that may be too difficult to overcome.

I’m picking Alabama.  Spread offenses do well against Nick Saban, but this is the furthest thing from a spread offense.  Mark Dantonio will have his team ready, and the Spartans will play angry.  But I just think the Tide has too much.

The Pick: Alabama 27, Michigan State 17

Personally, I believe that Oklahoma would beat Alabama in a national championship game.  However, that will be a separate post after the semifinal results.  As always, enjoy the games and have a safe, healthy, and Happy New Year!

You’d Never Know the Mets Were in the World Series Last Year

The 2015 New York Mets were something that the Mets have not been, aside from 2006, for the better part of fourteen years: good. Relevant. Fun. Exciting. Successful.

Behind a once-in-a-lifetime young pitching staff, the acquisition of Yoenis Cespedes and the absolutely masterful job Terry Collins did managing the team, the Mets eked by the Dodgers in five games in the NLDS and then proceeded to dump-truck the Cubs on their way to a sweep and the World Series.  Of course, we all know how the story ended: playoff star Daniel Murphy went cold, the pitching, especially in the bullpen, failed and the Royals essentially killed the Mets with 1,000 paper cuts.  So after that five-game World Series was over, you would surely think that the team would do their best to lock up free-agents-to-be Cespedes and Murphy, right?  Wrong.

Well, at least they would try to replace them with high-priced free agents at the same positions, right?  Wrong again.

To be fair, the team has basically replaced Murphy by trading for former Pirates’ second baseman Neil Walker.  The team also pursued the free agent who may have single-handedly stopped the Winter Meetings in their tracks, second baseman Ben Zobrist.  Zobrist decided to take less money than the $60 million the Mets were offering and signed with the Cubs for four years and $56 million. However this isn’t a huge deal, as Walker can step in to Murphy’s place and provide the same production he did, so that move should work out.  But who would the team acquire to replace Cespedes?

If you guessed Alejandro De Aza, you’re either a psychic or have inner knowings of the team’s front office plans.

The team announced the signing yesterday, along with its terms: one year, $5.75 million.  The opportunity to make that $7 million with performance-based incentives.  In other words, not someone who is going to be able to replace the production left behind by the departure of Cespedes.

To be clear, De Aza is a quality player, but probably one that is more suited to a bench role.  A career .267 hitter, he’s only averaged slightly over five home runs per year in his eight years in the majors.  In a platoon with current center fielder, right-handed hitter and 2014 Gold Glove award winner Juan Lagares, the left-handed hitting De Aza would probably get more playing time and bat near the bottom of the order.  The move for the team is not necessarily a bad one at a small level, but as part of the bigger picture, it doesn’t really work.  The team needed to somehow replace Cespedes’ big bat in the lineup, and they couldn’t even do it in the aggregate.

But this isn’t about a team’s free agent moves after making the World Series.  This is about the owners of that team, Fred and Jeff Wilpon, along with president Saul Katz, simply being unwilling to put in the money needed to keep the team near the top for several years to come.

On Monday, freelance writer Howard Megdal published a piece on Vocativ about how the team is more or less swimming in a pool of unpaid debt.  You have to read the whole thing for yourself, but here is an excerpt:

Back in 2008, the team’s investments with Ponzi schemer Bernie Madoff were discovered to be a fraud. More than $500 million in assets Wilpon and Katz thought they had—and had borrowed against—vanished. Accordingly, just to stay afloat, they needed to take out a $430 million loan against the team and $450 million against their majority ownership stake in SNY (a network started with a loan from Madoff, incidentally).

Ever since, the Mets have managed to get by annually by diverting revenue from their baseball and television operation into the financing of debt. Prior to the refinancing of the past two years, the annual interest on these two loans plus debt balloon payments of more than $43 million have exceeded team payroll itself.

The refinancing of the two loans has extended their due dates out five years, so this arrangement is set to continue for a long time to come. And the debt balloon payments run until December 2045, when currently youthful pitching ace Steven Matz will be 54 years old.

The Mets will be paying these crazy debts until 2045.  It will take the team so long to pay off these debts that they will be finished paying off the rest of Bobby Bonilla’s contract before the debts are paid.  It’s a bad situation, and the main reason why the team hasn’t been spending big bucks in free agency for the last several years.

This is the problem, though: it isn’t like the team is not making money.  Even with the debt payments, the Mets experienced an attendance increase of 19.5% a year ago (and a similar, if not larger, increase should be expected next season based off the results of 2015).  Also, the team’s most conservative estimates state that they added around $20 million in revenue from the team’s playoff games. That same article says that ratings on the team’s television network, SportsNet New York (SNY, for short) increased by about 56 percent over the past year, which means more revenue because advertisers are far more likely to pay for commercial sports on the team-owned network.

The opportunity for the Mets to spend is right in front of them.  Their starting rotation is making so little (a projected $13.5 million next year) that this person is going to be the highest-paid starter on the team next season:

Mets fans are some of the best in baseball.  They’re smart, dedicated and they aren’t shy about letting ownership know how they feel about the job they are doing.  They’re extremely upset right now, and they have every right to be.  The opportunity to win a World Series doesn’t come around very often, but the opportunity is even more rare when teams who have a chance to win one fail consistently to spend the necessary money to be in contention year after year.  It’s a shame for their fans that the Mets are blowing the opportunity to win, but this is especially disappointing when you consider the fact that the team’s rotation is not going to be together forever.

But, if the past actions of Mets ownership is any indication, there’s no reason to think that the team’s frugal ways are changing anytime soon.

Odell Beckham Jr.’s One-Game Suspension Is Just Right

Rarely is this ever said about the NFL’s disciplinary decisions, but they actually got something right Monday.

Yes, they suspended a player, and, in a rare occurrence, they even got the length of time of the suspension exactly right (when has that happened in the last ten years?).  What they did was suspend star Giants’ wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. one game for his ridiculousness during the Giants’ 38-35 loss to the still-undefeated Carolina Panthers on Sunday.

This whole story started with the build-up to the much-anticipated matchup between Carolina Panthers’ cornerback Josh Norman and Beckham.  It would be a collision of arguably the two best players at their respective positions in the NFL right now, and you could probably gather that there would be some bad blood between the parties.  Of course, when there is such a highly-anticipated matchup, there is naturally going to be some ill-will, and indeed there was on Sunday.

It started seemingly from the get-go, and Norman was the one who actually instigated the initial scuffling.  His throwdown of the star receiver is what initially garnered the attention of the fans, referees, and even the FOX broadcast.  After that, it was only 99.9% Beckham’s fault.  You can watch an NFL-made highlight video of the matchup here; embedding the video from YouTube is not allowed by request of the maker of the video (the NFL).

Anyway, Beckham was the guilty party on just about every play.  It looked as if he was so rattled by Norman and the Panther defense that he was really more worried about getting his shots in against Norman and others when the play was over than running his route and trying to make a play during game action.  But that isn’t even the problem, here, actually, it’s far from it.

OBJ’s actions on the field Sunday weren’t just about a man simply losing his damn mind.  They were seriously dangerous, and Norman, Beckham or anyone else playing for either team could have been severely injured as a result of his actions.

You can see if you watch the video that Beckham threw multiple punches on Norman and even, on one play flew in like a missile, led with the crown of his helmet, and kinda sorta tried to decapitate the Panthers’ corner.  That play and two others led to 15-yard unnecessary roughness penalties against the Giants, but none of those plays or any of the other reckless and stupid ones led to ejection.

And that is the mistake of the officials working the game.  Terry McAulay and his crew missed several surefire penalties over the course of the afternoon, and if they had gotten control of the game and Beckham earlier, most of the shenanigans that occurred between the two probably would not have happened in the first place.  Once they did, however, there should have been no other course of action than to eject OBJ.  So how did this start, other than with the matchup and the crazy hype?

Supposedly, if you ask the Giants, it started with homophobic slurs directed at the wide receiver.  And according to Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports, this isn’t just their best guess; they’re convinced and may even do something about it:

If that is true, that is a truly abhorrent action on the part of the Panther players.  If it isn’t, it makes Beckham’s actions that much less understandable, as if they were at all in the first place; as Bob Seger would say, “He (Beckham) had lost all control.”

Another potential provocation for the Giants’ star came in an unexpected form: a baseball bat.  In a video posted to Instagram by Fox Sports’ Jay Glazer, Josh Norman is seen clearly wielding a black baseball bat.  Glazer also describes a threat made by a Panthers practice squad player directly to Beckham:

If those are the real reasons why OBJ completely lost his mind on Sunday, well…. maybe you could justify his anger at the Panther players.  If he felt threatened in any way by anyone on the Panthers and felt the need at all times to defend himself, it’s possible to justify his actions.  But, according to injured cornerback Bene Benwikere, the team uses a baseball bat before every game as a symbol of home run plays and “laying the wood”, and not as a symbol of mass destruction:

Basically, this has gotten to the point of being he said, he said.  If Benwikere’s side of the story is true, then Beckham got too caught up in the game, the matchup, or whatever and just lost his damn mind. If the Giants’ side of the story is correct, then there is some justification for what Beckham did, but even then, his actions put people in danger and that is unacceptable no matter what happened before or during the game.

All this being said, the NFL absolutely got it right here; Beckham needed to be suspended, and even though he is a marketable star player in the league’s biggest market, he had to be disciplined for what he did to the entire Panthers team, his own team, and even himself through his stupidity on Sunday.  The NFL’s discipline of Beckham in this scenario is absolutely necessary, whether he’s the best receiver in football or the fifth receiver on the league’s worst team.

So, for once, the NFL’s handling of a star player’s transgressions should be applauded.

It’s Time to Revoke Jeff Fisher’s Lifetime Head Coaching Pass

Let me ask you an honest question: in his twenty-one-year NFL head-coaching career, how many of St. Louis Rams head coach Jeff Fisher’s teams have actually been good?  The answer, of course, depends on how you define good, so let’s put it this way: how many of Fisher’s teams have actually won a playoff game?

The answer will surprise you: out of twenty-one seasons, Jeff Fisher-coached teams have won a playoff game in exactly three different campaigns.  That may surprise you, considering the fact that his career started with the Houston Oilers and is still going today, but Fisher’s overall career has actually been one borne out of mediocrity more than success.  And yet, Fisher is no different from that gift you get on Christmas but know you’ll never use: he’s difficult to get rid of, and you feel guilty if you’re the one who dispatches him.

Why do I say this, then?  This is why, from CBS Sports NFL Insider Jason La Canfora:

Jeff Fisher’s job is safe in St. Louis, despite the 5-8 Rams closing in on their fourth straight losing season under Fisher. Rams owner Stan Kroenke is likely stuck in St. Louis for another year, and he is focused on a possible move to Los Angeles and is not in the business of paying ‎people $6 million plus to leave for a product he isn’t all that engaged in right now, anyway.

Fisher will be back with the Rams next season, meaning that they are more likely than not to be as hopelessly average as they are now. Why in the world has he lasted so long?

Here’s one reason: there are a lot of unknown commodities when it comes to NFL coaches.  Yes, the Rams could absolutely do better than Jeff Fisher, but it’s also important to note that they would also like to not do worse.  Their choice essentially comes down to Jeff Fisher or any head coaching candidate they can find.  And, if this guy is any indication, the waters of finding a new head coach can be pretty treacherous sometimes.

That’s just one reason, and it’s really more of a supposition than it is conclusive deduction.  But there should be something to be said for Fisher; according to a USA Today study in 2012, NFL head coaches actually have the longest average tenures out of the four major sports. The average length of that tenure?  4.39 years.  Fisher is in his 21st. That should be commended.

However, one cannot help but think that Fisher has been incredibly lucky in lasting this long.  Here’s another exercise for you, the reader: try to guess Jeff Fisher’s career winning percentage, including last night’s 31-23 victory over the Buccaneers.  You’re probably thinking somewhere in the high-50s, maybe even 60%.  If you guessed that, you would be very wrong.

It’s exactly 52%.  Fisher has lasted in the NFL for just about 21 years and has a career .520 winning percentage.  For context, Colts head coach Chuck Pagano has won two-thirds of his games in almost four years in Indianapolis and he’s about to get fired.  Mike Smith won 58% of his games in seven seasons with the Atlanta Falcons, a run that included five straight seasons from 2008-2012 with at least nine wins.  He did get fired after last season.

Welcome to the NFL.

Seriously, though: how?  How does a man whose teams are consistently mediocre retain job status for, with the exception of the 2011 season, every year since 1994?  Again, his first head coaching tenure started with the Houston Oilers.  Maybe it was because of complacent owners who were fine with the status quo of mediocrity (more on one of those owners later).  Maybe it was the weakness of the pool from which the Oilers/Titans and Rams would have to take a head coach from in the event that one of them fired Fisher.  It could be either one.

It pains me to say this, but at the same time, I just can’t emphasize this enough: he really isn’t a great NFL head coach.  Gary Davenport took the words right out of my mouth wrote about this for Bleacher Report Friday:

Jeff Fisher just isn‘t a very good head coach.

Mind you, he isn‘t a terrible head coach. He’s an experienced head coach, with this being his 21st season prowling an NFL sideline. He’s been to a Super Bowl. Six times, teams he’s coached have won double-digit games.

Of course, we just hit on part of the problem. Jeff Fisher teams have won 10 or more games only six times in 21 years. Meanwhile, nine seasons with Fisher at the helm have ended with his team winning seven or eight games.

The Rams appear headed for No. 10 in 2015.

All of three head coaches in NFL history have lost more games than Fisher. All three have more playoff and Super Bowl appearances. Many more.

The statistic that Davenport provided showed the top four head coaches in terms of most losses in NFL history.  Fisher was number four.  Numbers one, two and three were Dan Reeves (one of the better and criminally underrated head coaches in NFL history), Tom Landry, and Don Shula.  Not for nothing, but I would take any one of those three over Fisher in a second.  That’s nothing against Fisher and his longevity, but those men had greater success, especially in January and February.

I can’t honestly answer as to why Jeff Fisher still has a job in the NFL. What I can say is that it is virtually impossible for us to remove him; we can’t get rid of him and something tells me that we may not be able to anytime soon unless he decides to step away.  His teams have been consistently mediocre, and nearly 21 years really isn’t all that small of a sample size, either.  And it’s not like the Rams are magically going to get better under his tutelage next year (and the year after that, and so on).

Which is grounds to have his lifetime pass to being an NFL head coach removed.