Four teams remain in the NFL playoffs after last week’s Divisional Round saw all four games decided by seven or fewer points. The New England Patriots, synthetic weed, left behind K-Balls and all, defeated the Kansas City Chiefs 27-20, en route to their fifth-straight AFC title game. In the other half of the conference, the Denver Broncos defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers 20-13, but in particularly ugly fashion, as this play shows:
Peyton goes down, Peyton gets up, Peyton completes pass. Does not appear to be touched on the 2nd view pic.twitter.com/6eVqjZS3PU
— The Cauldron (@TheCauldron) January 18, 2016
Nonetheless, the Broncos won, setting up Brady-Manning XVII, likely the final meeting between the two Hall of Famers.
On the NFC side, the Arizona Cardinals struggled their way to a 20-13 lead over the Green Bay Packers, but due to horrid clock (mis)management, Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense had one last chance to tie the game and send it into overtime. What happened next is nothing short of indescribable:
Then, of course, there was the coin that didn’t flip, and the Cardinals got the ball first in overtime. That’s when Larry Fitzgerald got to work, in a big way, catching two passes, one for 75 yards and the winner from five yards out:
Game on the line? Presenting Larry Fitzgerald…FOR THE WIN! #GBvsAZ#BeRedSeeRedhttps://t.co/GZoknPvs52
— NFL (@NFL) January 17, 2016
In the other NFC game, the Carolina Panthers jumped out to a 31-0 halftime lead over the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle would come back to bring the game within seven, but would not get any closer. Was it an entertaining game? Sure, but nothing like the spectacle that was Packers-Cardinals.
In any event, here is a preview of the two conference title games.
AFC Championship: Patriots at Broncos
The clear undercard to the NFC Championship Game, this game still features intriguing storylines. However, the biggest question in this one will be if Peyton Manning and the Broncos offense can keep pace with the high-flying, and now fully healthy, Patriots offense. If the answer is, by some bizarre revelation, yes, then we are in for an outstanding game. If this answer is the more likely solution, no, then things could get out of hand, and quickly.
Manning’s health and his steep decline have been well-documented, and the latter was fully on display against the Steelers. His lack of arm strength and his inability to fit the ball into tight windows has been his, and the Broncos offense’s, downfall all season long, and at this point, the team should seriously consider turning to Brock Osweiler. It’s a shame, but Denver’s offense is limited by Manning at this point. The rest of the team is good enough to win a Super Bowl, but the most important position on the field is in flux.
On the other hand, the Patriots offense is far from being in flux. With the greatest quarterback in the history of football and his full assemblage of weapons fully healthy, the team and the offensive unit are looking more and more dangerous as time goes on.
Also, the most important Patriot offensive player not named Brady or Gronkowski is back, too. Julian Edelman, who missed seven games due to a foot injury suffered in November, announced his presence in a big way against the Chiefs, racking up 111 total yards and ten catches. He’s Brady’s favorite target, too: he’s averaged over ten targets per game, more than any other New England receiver (including Gronk).
Here are some stats to show just why Edelman is the second-most important player in the Patriots offense:
| WITH EDELMAN | WITHOUT EDELMAN | |
| PASS YARDS PER GAME | 323.5 | 236.3 |
| TOTAL YARDS PER GAME | 410.8 | 317.6 |
| POINTS PER GAME | 33 | 23.1 |
(Statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference)
It will be the task of the Broncos defense to stop the Patriots. It’s something they were able to do in the first meeting of the teams in week 12, but in that game, the Patriots were missing Edelman and Danny Amendola; also, Gronkowski left the game in the fourth quarter with what looked to be a serious knee injury. Luckily, it wasn’t.
And for the Patriots, they’ll have their full cast of offensive characters this Sunday. Look out.
The Pick: Patriots 31, Broncos 13
NFC Championship: Cardinals at Panthers
I have been torn on this game since about Monday. While both teams are as good as any in football, they both showed their flaws last weekend. For example, the Panthers’ flaw has to be allowing teams back into games, while the Cardinals’ flaw is offensive inconsistency, especially when quarterback Carson Palmer struggles. However, the one I’d have to be much more concerned with is that of Carolina.
Did you know that the Panthers have almost blown five fourth-quarter leads this season? Granted, that’s out of fifteen wins, and the team still has the best point differential in the NFL (+192; the Cardinals are second at +176), this is staggering and very concerning, especially when you consider that Carolina nearly blew a 31-point halftime lead to the Seahawks a week ago. The team has a tendency to start strong and then tail off, but that strategy isn’t going to cut it against Arizona this week.
Statistically, the Cardinals have the best offense in football, but the more impressive and important statistic is that their defense was the fifth-best in football during the regular season. Just as importantly, their defense is top ten in both rushing and passing yards allowed, which is going to be very important as the team tries to defend dual-threat quarterback and soon-to-be-MVP Cam Newton.
However, the most important thing of all for the Cardinals will be to get running back David Johnson going. Johnson has started every game at running back for the Cardinals since primary, lucky-to-be-alive running back Chris Johnson suffered a fractured tibia in week 12 against the 49ers. The team has won every game in which David has accumulated over 100 all-purpose yards. He hasn’t reached that mark since playing the Packers in week 16, and he was mostly held in check against the Packers in the Divisional Round. If the Cardinals want to go to the Super Bowl, they’ll need their running back to have a big day.
Another thing to watch with this one is the weather. While the actual weather for Sunday will be favorable, a storm is hitting the Carolinas Friday and Saturday. The reason why I’m mentioning this is that the field for Sunday’s game may be glorified mud, which probably means advantage Panthers.
However, despite the weather and Newton, I’m going with the upset and taking the Cardinals. This game will hopefully be a classic, and the gap between the teams really is not wide. I’m most concerned about the Panthers’ fourth-quarter habit, but especially if they start slowly and don’t pull out to their usual lead.
This one really could go either way, but the Cardinals will win in a close one.
The Pick: Cardinals 23, Panthers 20
Enjoy the games, and for those on the east coast, stay safe in the upcoming blizzard.