X Gon’ Give It to You: NCAA Tournament, East Region Preview

Our preview of the NCAA Tournament continues with the top right region of the bracket, the East.

This region, thankfully, won’t be as crazy as the West region, with fewer upsets and more certainty.  That being said, there will still be surprises and upsets that we won’t see coming.  The categories are the same, with the return of “judgment calls.”  Before we get on with our preview, here is a brief reminder of the matchups in this region:

(1) North Carolina vs. (16) Florida Gulf Coast

(2) Xavier vs. (15) Weber State

(3) West Virginia vs. (14) Stephen F. Austin

(4) Kentucky vs. (13) Stony Brook

(5) Indiana vs. (12) Chattanooga

(6) Notre Dame vs. (11) Michigan/Tulsa (play-in game)

(7) Wisconsin vs. (10) Pittsburgh

(8) USC vs. (9) Providence

So, now that the matchups are out of the way, let’s get on with our preview of the East Region.

No-Brainer (Just One)

 (5) Indiana over (12) Chattanooga

While the Mocs of Chattanooga dominated the SoCon all season and will come into the Tournament ready to take down a major-conference foe, the Hoosiers of Indiana are one of the most underrated teams in the field.  They shot just over 50% from the field…. on the season.  Indiana, as well as the Big Ten as a whole, has gone vastly disrespected this March.  Look out for the Hoosiers, not just in this game, but beyond.

Let’s get to the fun stuff….

Problematic Picks

(1) NORTH CAROLINA OVER (16) FLORIDA GULF COAST

Yes, a 16 could beat a 1 this year.  I know it’s never happened before and it’s still unlikely to occur, but the Eagles are one of the few teams in the Tournament that can stay with Carolina on the boards.  We’ve seen the Tar Heels dominate the game but not the scoreboard before, so this could be a close one.  However, North Carolina’s obvious advantages are ball distribution and experience.

Also, in honor of #FreeThrowAwarenessMonth, the Eagles shoot a paltry 64.5% from the charity stripe.  If they need to make free throws to win the game, they probably won’t be able to.  Carolina escapes.

(3) West Virginia over (14) Stephen F. Austin

The havoc of West Virginia’s full-court press defense should win out over the ball distribution and flawless execution of the Lumberjacks. However, the Mountaineers have gone through shooting slumps over the course of the season, and Stephen F. Austin could capitalize on these struggles if they occur.  If West Virginia can force the Lumberjacks into turnovers and out of their game, this should be an easy win.

Against a team with tournament experience like the Lumberjacks, though, the task won’t be easy.

(2) Xavier over (15) Weber state

Xavier should beat Weber State easily.  But if the Wildcats can control the defensive glass like they are capable of, they can make a game out of this one.  Also, Xavier uses over four more possessions per game than Weber State, which will be another point of emphasis in this one.  I’ll take the Musketeers, but don’t rule out entirely the possibility of a close game here.

Judgment Calls

(6) Notre dame over (11) Michigan/Tulsa

I would probably take Michigan to beat Notre Dame in this game.  The only reason I did not pick the winner of the play-in game to take down the Irish here is because the thought of Tulsa playing Notre Dame was too daunting for me to have unequivocal confidence in taking the upset.  If the Golden Hurricane were to pull an upset of their own right over the Wolverines, I wouldn’t want to have to trust Tulsa to beat Notre Dame.

That’s the only reason I have the Irish winning.  I don’t like their prospects of a deep run and I don’t think they’ll make one.  I don’t have confidence in them winning their first round game, either.

(10) Pittsburgh over (7) Wisconsin

This isn’t necessarily an “upset”; Pittsburgh has one of the most underrated point guards in the country in James Robinson and Wisconsin is not the team it has been the last two seasons.  However, the Badgers’ experience could play a role in this game, as they’ve only made the tournament in each of the past eighteen seasons.  I do like Pittsburgh in this one because of their guard play and ability to score, but don’t be surprised if this goes in the other direction, either.

(8) USC Over (9) Providence

This game really could go either way.  The Friars boast one of the best guard-forward combinations in the tournament in the form of Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil while the Trojans can light it up from downtown.  USC is also one of the streakiest teams in the field, making this one all the more difficult to handicap.  In the words of Clark Kellogg, I’ll take the Trojans’ spurtability and ability to heat up quickly.

Now for the best part….

Upset (There’s Only One)

(13) STony brook over (4) kentucky

Hear me out on this one: the Seawolves are a very dangerous squad that matches up perfectly with Kentucky in this game.  Jameel Warney, three-time America East Conference Player of the Year, can cause havoc inside for the Kentucky big men.  Also, Stony Brook distributes and shoots the ball better from downtown than do the Wildcats, so maybe this shouldn’t be regarded as such of a mismatch after all.

If the Seawolves can win the rebound battle and make their threes, it could spell doom for Kentucky.  My bet is that it will.

The rest of this post will be dedicated to the rest of my predictions for this region.

Round of 32

(1) North carolina over (8) USC

This one is fairly simple; while the Trojans can absolutely make this a game, the Tar Heels’ ability to dominate the offensive glass will knock Andy Enfield’s team out of the dance.  This one will be closer than expected, though.

(5) Indiana over (13) Stony brook

Business will be booming for Indiana in this game.  The strong play of star point guard Yogi Ferrell will continue and the Hoosiers should easily outshoot the Seawolves in this one.  Expect an Indiana win but don’t expect it to be close.

(3) West virginia over (6) Notre Dame

I said it before; I just don’t like the Irish.  It’s nothing personal but I don’t see them causing any trouble in this region of the bracket.  West Virginia should win this one with ease and while the Irish could make it close, don’t hold your breath waiting for it to happen.

(2) Xavier over (10) Pittsburgh

This is the game that most intrigues me in the second round of this region.  The battle of point guards James Robinson (Pittsburgh) and Edmond Sumner (Xavier) will be the one to watch in this game as this matchup will dictate affairs.  If Robinson can have his way, the Panthers may pull a shocker, but if Sumner wins this contest, the Musketeers should win going away.  Look out for the Panthers in this one.

Sweet 16

(5) Indiana over (1) North Carolina

While North Carolina won the ACC title with a gritty win in their conference title game over Virginia, they’re still vulnerable.  For example, in their two games against the Duke Blue Devils, the Heels out-rebounded Duke by a combined 110 to 63.  Their point margin in these two games?  +3, including a 74-73 loss on February 17.  Mentally tough, they are.  Capable of going all the way and winning a title? They are.

Predicted to get out of the Sweet 16 in my bracket, they are not. Indiana pulls the upset and moves on to the Regional Final.

(2) Xavier over (3) West Virginia

This is also a fascinating matchup.  While Xavier boasts lots of individual talent and can win in many different ways, West Virginia and head coach Bob Huggins feel as though their ten-man rotation is as good as any in America.  They may be right, but I like the Musketeers to take another win here because they should be able to win the rebound, assist, and three-point battles.  Speeding up the tempo won’t be enough against Sumner and Xavier; therefore, I’ll throw up the X and put the Musketeers in my East Regional Final.

Elite 8 (Regional Final)

(2) Xavier over (5) Indiana

This game is absolutely fascinating, another one that will come down to the battle of the guards.  Sumner vs. Ferrell will dictate this one, and even though I picked Xavier, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Hoosiers win this one and go to Houston.  This is my personal favorite Elite 8 matchup of the four that I have, and even though I have no rooting interest in this game, I’d be thrilled if it came to fruition.

It’s a real shame that one team had to lose, but I picked Indiana to be that team.  X gives it to me and advances to the Final Four.