It’s that time of year again! NFL training camp has fully begun for all 32 NFL teams, the first preseason game kicks off on Sunday night, Hard Knocks starts on Tuesday, and every fantasy football team in America is undefeated. In other words, all the signs are there to indicate that football season is around the corner. And what better way to kick off said football season than to talk about coaches who need to be taking looks over their shoulders for their replacement?
My word of warning with this: I am not doing this to celebrate the chance of a coach getting fired. And I’m not jumping for joy over a coach, or coaches, doing poor jobs. As Donald Trump said last night, “I would say he’s incompetent, but I don’t want to do that because that’s not nice.” The Donald aside, let’s get down to business; here are top five coaches on the hot seat this season.
5. Chuck Pagano, Indianapolis Colts
This is probably a surprise for you. It was for me, too.
To most observers, this would seem like the year for the Colts to put it all together. They signed Andre Johnson and Frank Gore in free agency. They bring back the third leading passer in total yards last season and the best young quarterback in football. And best of all? No more Trent Richardson! They’re going to win the Super Bowl, right?
Maybe. But for coach Chuck Pagano, he has no other choice. And while this is a surprise, ProFootballTalk’s Mike Florio covered it in March:
The problem may be that owner Jim Irsay wants more success before making a fresh commitment to Pagano. Ditto, possibly, for G.M. Ryan Grigson, who also is entering the final year of his contract, who traded a first-round draft pick for Trent Richardson, and who possibly won’t be getting an extension, either.
Irsay had no qualms about firing Jim Mora after the 2001 season, after a 6-10 season followed a pair of playoff appearances with Peyton Manning. Perhaps Irsay believes that, unless Grigson and Pagano can get more out of franchise quarterbackAndrew Luck, Irsay will find someone who will.
That’s his right, but it also will be Grigson’s and Pagano’s right to accept employment elsewhere, if they take the Colts to or close to the top of the NFL and attract interest elsewhere.
Unfair? Very. Ridiculous? Even more so. But it’s just the way the NFL works. The “What have you done for me lately” industry may be claiming another victim next offseason.
4. Sean Payton, New Orleans Saints
Little-known fact: Drew Brees was tied for the NFL lead in passing yards last season. Very well-known fact: Drew Brees is 36 years old.
Drew Brees is the quarterback of the New Orleans Saints, who were triumphant in Super Bowl XLIV, after the 2009 season. The greatest hits of coach Sean Payton’s team since then? Among others, the Earthquake Run, the Catch III, Bountygate, losing a quite winnable NFC South last season, and, most importantly, no trips to the conference title game since their ’09 title.
And if you don’t think think the pressure is squarely on Sean Payton this season, listen to what he said after last season, per Brent Sobleski of Bleacher Report:
Honestly, and I say this in a very humble way, I hope that none of us feel like the ‘13 season was one where we were ready to have a second Mardi Gras parade. Look, we made the postseason, we had a chance to win the division and we couldn’t finish at the end at Carolina. And we got a playoff win, I recognize that was a big deal. But our aspirations are higher than that.
Payton has set himself up for failure. Anything less than his own expectations may very well get him fired.
3. Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati Bengals
This is a complicated one. Some say Lewis has never been on the hot seat, others say he has been on it since 2005. Confused yet?
The big knock against Lewis with the Bengals is that he has actually never won a playoff game. He’s been in January games the last four years, and before that, in 2005 and 2009. However, the amount of time Lewis has in the Queen City is probably tied to quarterback Andy Dalton. Dalton was tied for third in the league in interceptions last season and has a 3-2 touchdown to interception ratio for his career (that’s not very good).
Dalton’s playoff TD-INT ratio? 1-6. That’s worse. And it will have to get better if Lewis wants to keep his job past this season.
2. Joe Philbin, Miami Dolphins
Unlike the situation in Cincinnati, this one seems fairly obvious. Philbin (and quarterback Ryan Tannehill) are in their fourth season together and the first three have been… eh.
In 2012, the Fish were 7-9. The last two years, they’ve been 8-8. But their schedule this season provides the best chance yet to make the playoffs. Their first six opponents (Redskins, Jaguars, Bills, Jets, Titans, Texans) all give the Fins opportunities for early wins. The schedule gets tougher after that, but the Dolphins have a chance to be a playoff team this year.
Unless they do what they have done every year under Philbin’s reign. Here’s what ESPN’s Rich Cimini wrote about Philbin’s future, or lack thereof, on South Beach:
It has to be Philbin. All the warning signs are there: He has a mediocre record (23-25) and no playoff appearances in three years, a new boss (Tannenbaum) in charge of the football operation and an owner (Ross) who spent major bucks in the offseason and wants results now. It’s hard to imagine Philbin surviving another playoff-less season. Tannenbaum made a lot of changes to the roster in his first season, and he will bring in his own coach if Philbin stumbles again. How do you think Tannenbaum-Eric Mangini 2.0 will play in South Beach? Don’t laugh: It could happen if Philbin goes 0-for-4. It’s unusual in the NFL for a coach to get a fifth crack at the postseason. Philbin has a $96 million quarterback (Ryan Tannehill), a revamped receiving corps and Ndamukong Suh on defense. Get it done, Joe.
No playoffs, no Philbin. It’s very cut and dry.
1. Chip Kelly
It seems like Kelly has all the power in Philly. He made all the moves this offseason (I mean, all the moves) and the team now looks like maybe, possibly, a reflection of him. So how could someone with all the power be deposed?
With a bad season, that is. This is what Brandon Lee Gowton of Bleeding Green Nation had to say about this subject:
After being on the hot seat every year since he took over, I think it’s fair to say it’s not Jason Garrett. (And I do think we all overstated how hot his seat actually was.) It’s easy to say Tom Coughlin or Jerry Reese with the Giants, too. But I’m going with Chip Kelly. The Eagles’ moves this offseason have been all about Kelly. The trade of LeSean McCoy was at first called a salary-cap move, but then the Eagles put big money into DeMarco Murray and solid money into Ryan Mathews. I’m not ready to say Kiko Alonso will be a star the way McCoy is a star. The trade for Sam Bradford is a huge risk considering the quarterback’s injury history. They have taken an interesting route with their receivers. If this doesn’t work out for the Eagles, then Kelly will have nobody to blame but himself.
Yeah, no one else is left to blame here. It’s Kelly, himself, and him. If this fails, we can’t look to blame anyone else.
If Kelly fails, he can easily go back to college. It’s not as crazy as it sounds: if Jim Harbaugh could do it, why can’t he?
Agree or no? Leave an opinion in the comments section.
(c) 2015